Ode to Steve Jobs

All the world was abuzz today about the iPhone. This is one gorgeous, sexy, amazing-looking product. Although I've used a PC for years, I bought my first Macintosh early in 1984, and I worked at Apple for a few years. Steve Jobs has been my hero since I was about 14 years old, and the adventures he has had in his business life make Odysseus look like a bore.

Steve Jobs has more style in his pinkie than Bill Gates has in his whole body. And even though the Google founders could buy and sell Steve Jobs many times over, I doubt there's anyone in the country that would opt for lunch with the Google guys over Steve Jobs. He's amazing. As is the press coverage....the top story on CNN!


As well as Fox.....


So it's not surprise that Apple exploded higher today....on volume of over 100 million shares! It wasn't that many years ago that the entire stock market traded 100 million shares. Now just one stock can do it. Just look at this graph!


This is a very late posting, so I'm going to have to tear through it. Boeing (BA) still looks like it's changing trends.


COF, mentioned many times in this space, is moving achingly slowly, but at least it's moving down.


Express Scripts (ESRX), a favorite here, looks terrific. Lower lows and lower highs are clearly intact.


CSX still looks good on the short side.


And FTO is looking like it has a real chance at completing its head and shoulders pattern.


HES is moving nicely lower with all the oil stocks (yep, I got blown out of those OIH calls first thing this morning).


And Hilton (HLT) is obeying the "trendline changing from support to resistance" phenomenon.


Oh, and then there's RIMM. I set my stop too tight on this. It got killed today - obviously because of Apple. I mean, the Blackberry is the most boring piece of crap on the planet compared to the sexy iPhone. Who wants one of those ugly Blackberries now? That's so 2002.


RTI continues to behave as any bearish pick should.


...as does SIE...


...and TSO...


It's late, so I'd better publish this. I hopefully will have more time tomorrow for some general market analysis. Thanks for stopping by!

Buy Buy!

Two days into 2007, and each of them an up day on the Dow. The bulls are still having their fun. Granted, both days combined don't even equal 20 points. But the bulls are still lovestruck.


OK, that probably woke you up. I hate to be punitive, but no one commented on my gallery of Worst Album Covers yesterday, so I wanted to supplement them.......from the pious.....


...to the romantic....


...to the deepest male emotions.....


....to Ken.....by request. I imagine this is simple a blank vinyl disc.


ABT looks attractive as a buy. This market is really overpriced, I think, but this is still a handsome chart.


HAL, on the other hand, is more symbolic of what's happening. Broken trendlines, weakening stocks, all masked by a strong megacap market


I'm starting to lose faith in GOOG (and RIMM) as shorts. Today was a very strong day on both counts. I've marked by stop-loss price on GOOG here.


DST is sort of fascinating in how it shows trendlines "changing coats" from support to resistance. This kind of thing happens all the time.


BLUD, which I've mentioned many times before as a long, continues to be fantastic. Just look at this strength.


BAC, Bank of America, seems a possible attractive short as it seems to be changing direction here.


QID, the double-inverse NASDAQ ETF, is fascinating in the sense that volume is exploding and the price is finally turning around. Hopefully this is the shape of things to come.


OXY is a good representative of the weakening oil stocks.


Whereas the broad OIH continues to falter. I've been bearish on oil for a few weeks now.


HYDL, mentioned here as a short before, is also enjoying a downdraft.


Although I haven't mentioned HP (the symbol, not the company) in a while, this is a gorgeous example of Fibonacci retracements in action. Magical!


Finally, RTI looks like it may have put in a double top.


See you Friday afternoon......it'll probably be a late posting. It might not even happen until the weekend. But I'll get it done!

Sea Change

It was nice to see a good, solid down day. Particularly when the market blasted higher from the opening bell, riding on the wings of CSCO's strong earnings. The fact that the NASDAQ actually fell after such a strong opening is great. Green on the screen is a pleasant change these days.

The real change going on is in the political/social pulse of the country. 1994's Republican sweep into Congress preceded the monster bull market of 1995-2000. Conservative values, religion, the 'contract with America' - the whole schmear.

Now that the pendulum is starting to swing the other way, what do we have? Cover stories about aetheism, bestselling books about atheism, a very left-of-center Speaker of the House. It's like a mirror image of 1994. And don't you think the odds of a Democratic president in 2008 are pretty strong? The pendulum is swinging to the left, and I imagine it's going to be approaching socialism before it starts tipping the other way again.

How good do you think that's going to be for corporate profits? Can you imagine what kind of nuclear bomb will hit the market when the capital gains tax is eliminated and people must pay ordinary income on stock profits? After all, no more tax breaks for the rich!

Like I mentioned, the NASDAQ fell. The $NDX pierced its prior 100% Fib level (which, cough cough, I've conveniently skooched upward to today's high). I like the weakness today.


The Russell 2000, a perpetual favorite of mine, has puts which I've been gobbling up at these levels. Someone asked about IWM - to which I respond, yes, I like this for a short position. I wouldn't call it a head and shoulders, but I like how it is weakening.


I think I mentioned a couple of days back going long the $SOX. Nahhhhhh. I changed my mind and bought puts yesterday. I'm glad I did. This did well today, and it's got a really obvious stop price (and a really obvious this-was-the-right-choice price).


I've never drawn a trendline on an RSI until today, but it works rather well, don't you think?


The cool thing is that the $VIX is slowly but surely turning upward. A series of higher lows, marked by that ascending trendline, illustrates this. C'mon, $VIX!!!


Now for some specific short suggestions, all of which have put options available. AMG:


BA, which kissed the underbelly of its former trendline today:


FMX (no options on this, I don't think, but......):


HYDL, which busted its head and shoulders pattern, but still looks sweet:


TXT:


Hey, I could use another dose of Down tomorrow. We'll see.

Darkest Before the Dawn?

To All Disciples, Nay-Sayers, Hangers-On, and Stubborn Mules.......

I bet you didn't know this, but I used to sing. Yes, sing. Amateur level, naturally, but it was fun for a while. Allow me to share my sentiments for recent market activity with this bit of Latin I warbled at one point:

Confutatis maledictis,
flammis acribus addictis,
voca me cum benedictus.

Oro supplex et acclinis,
cor contritum quasi cinis,
gere curam mei finis.

Y'know, times like these so remind me of 1999. Basically smart, sober, thinking people (ahem.....) knew the market was insane. And they got their butts handed to them. Stupid, mindless sheep didn't have to think at all. And they got freakin' rich. The world just ain't fair, is it? Who said IQ pays?

I looked at the comments from yesterday's post and have a couple of replies. To Leisa, I'm delighted to have provided you a big "O" through this blog. Don't let my wife know. She's got me as an exclusive service provider on that front. And downosedive, I agree, we may be in an "overshoot" right now. Indeed, if you believe my 1972=2006 analysis, we're going to keep grinding higher until January or so.

Someone commented how my mood was a contrarian indicator. Perhaps so. Truth to tell, even as a permabear, I'm not bad at picking bottoms. Take a look at my post from July 15th. This marked almost to the day when the market turned around. Now, unfortunately, I've been fighting it ever since........but my point is that I did recognize when the selling was over.

In spite of a completely rotten week, my spirits are relatively good. Hope springs eternal in the bearish breast, eh? Let's take a look at some charts.

The NASDAQ, which I am painfully short by means of puts on the QQQQ, the $NDX, and the $MSH, has been super strong. It's wayyyyyyy at the top of almost every technical channel at this point. But - - that is meaning squat these days.


The Russell 2000 index is something I follow closely. If the market ever does start falling (which, I'm guessing, will be around the year 2039 or so) this one is going to get hit the worst. It's been quite strong and is approaching a lifetime high. I'll let the chart speak for itself.


The S&P 500 has been charging ahead as well. Unlike the Dow, it is not at a lifetime high (God forbid it gets there anytime soon). It's pushing its way toward its 78.6% Fib retracement. This is a heavily marked-up chart.


The $VIX is as low as public opinion of Congress right now. I mean, God almighty, just look at this thing. I've circled the prior nadirs (how often do you use that phrase in conversation?)


I bought calls on the $XAU a few days back and sold them today for a decent profit. Yeah, a wimpy little trade, I know. I'm just having trouble defying this huge head and shoulders pattern any longer. But it definitely bounced off that Fib line (and neckline) and could head higher - maybe even much higher.


Now on to some specific stocks. Here's AAPL. Doesn't the current action look just a touch like late 99/early 2000 to you?


Here's Allegan (AGN):


Boeing (BA) which - gasp - went DOWN today. Maybe the whole Airbus-sucks thing has played itself out. This is a broken trendline.


Black and Decker (BDK):


CMI which, umm, looks just a little overbought, wouldn't you say. I mean, God almighty, just look at this thing.


CTX.......


DE, which I'm not zany about, but seems vulnerable enough......


IWM, which is the ETF for the Russell. A convergence seems to be approaching.


Lehman (LEH).....


LEN.....


Our old friend OIH which, I confess, could go up. But I'm betting down. I'd say a stop at $131 would make this a relatively low risk/high reward trade.


Redback is something that I'm long. Goes against ever fiber in my body, I know, but it is one of the few decent looking bullish plays I see.


I will now grab my mango-infused rum, kneel down on the floor, and pray to the bearish God in heaven to smite those who keep pushing the market higher. Our time will come. Let's just hope we're not all wearing barrels by the time it does.