Any Gas Left?

Dow 14k is in the air, and it's all the pundits seem to want to talk about. I've already mentioned here that my 'upper limit' is 14,100 on the Dow based on its breakout. Even though the Dow was up today to yet another lifetime high, the broader indexes were down, and my overall portfolio climbed by 5%.


When I showed the "mother of all double tops" by way of the S&P 500 graph, many people remarked that the S&P was cheap since profits have doubled on the S&P 500 since the prior high in 2000.

That may be true, but the logic is flawed. That's the equivalent of a Republican declaring the White House could be won in 2008 if only they could find a candidate twice as popular as George Bush. Just because something is double something else doesn't mean the opposite result will take place. If the P/E in 2000 was 500, would a P/E of 250 make it a bargain? Of course, those weren't the real P/Es, but hopefully you can see my point.


The daily chart of the Dow 30 helps illustrate how this market is in the toppermost of the poppermost. I see a fall ahead.


On an intraday basis, it's clear to see how strong the price movement has been since the breakout. I've tinted in the target zone. We have moved through most of the pain already.


A daily chart of the NDX - which I've been avoiding for many months - suggests this graph could be running out of gas too.


My favorite, the Russell 2000, edged down nicely today.


Even though the Gold and Silver index ($XAU) broke above its channel, recently history indicates the RSI has been a reliable bearish indicator; note the areas I've tinted and the subsequent price action.


Akamai (AKAM) looks like a potential bearish play; note the series of lower highs.


ALB also looks nice for a short.


I bought puts on Colgate (CL) today.


I continue to hold onto my CROX puts, which are doing OK.


I also bought puts on CVX this morning. So far, so good.


And I shorted DST (a busy day.....)


I mentioned puts on FXI last week. These look better than ever.


JC Penney has been a favorite of mine recently. My puts on this stock edged higher today due to the stock's weakness.

Buy Buy!

Two days into 2007, and each of them an up day on the Dow. The bulls are still having their fun. Granted, both days combined don't even equal 20 points. But the bulls are still lovestruck.


OK, that probably woke you up. I hate to be punitive, but no one commented on my gallery of Worst Album Covers yesterday, so I wanted to supplement them.......from the pious.....


...to the romantic....


...to the deepest male emotions.....


....to Ken.....by request. I imagine this is simple a blank vinyl disc.


ABT looks attractive as a buy. This market is really overpriced, I think, but this is still a handsome chart.


HAL, on the other hand, is more symbolic of what's happening. Broken trendlines, weakening stocks, all masked by a strong megacap market


I'm starting to lose faith in GOOG (and RIMM) as shorts. Today was a very strong day on both counts. I've marked by stop-loss price on GOOG here.


DST is sort of fascinating in how it shows trendlines "changing coats" from support to resistance. This kind of thing happens all the time.


BLUD, which I've mentioned many times before as a long, continues to be fantastic. Just look at this strength.


BAC, Bank of America, seems a possible attractive short as it seems to be changing direction here.


QID, the double-inverse NASDAQ ETF, is fascinating in the sense that volume is exploding and the price is finally turning around. Hopefully this is the shape of things to come.


OXY is a good representative of the weakening oil stocks.


Whereas the broad OIH continues to falter. I've been bearish on oil for a few weeks now.


HYDL, mentioned here as a short before, is also enjoying a downdraft.


Although I haven't mentioned HP (the symbol, not the company) in a while, this is a gorgeous example of Fibonacci retracements in action. Magical!


Finally, RTI looks like it may have put in a double top.


See you Friday afternoon......it'll probably be a late posting. It might not even happen until the weekend. But I'll get it done!

Stop New High Mania!

They just couldn't let us have a triple digit down day, could they? The Dow was down about 115 points earlier, but we closed down 80. Oh, well. Not a bad day, particularly since the media is all ga-ga over the possibility that the Dow is within spitting distance of an all-time high. It would be nice for that not to happen.

My portfolios were up today, but not as much as they might have been if oil had cooperated. OIH was up about 2% as oil and related companies tried to recover from its recent bashing.


The aforementioned $INDU gave back yesterday's gains and is clearly showing some respect for that trendline that it is under.


The $RUT is hopefully stuck in a rut. That horizontal trendline is the "throw in the towel" zone, and we do not want it to cross on the upside. This is a nice bearish engulfing pattern at this point.


More short ideas. Here's DST......


ESRX, offered up a week or two ago, is doing nicely.


As is NVR, also suggested a while back.


One I discovered today was Panera Bread, PNRA.


That's it for now. As always, good luck in your trading.