Thursday, July 19, 2007

Google-y Eyes

I'm going to make you feel how deeply you want and love me by having a really short post today. I am moving heaven and earth to get this blog moved to a different platform, so I need to focus on that.

I will say, however, that I'm pleased to see the after-hours market slamming the bejesus out of Google (GOOG). As I am typing this, it is down nearly 40 points. Congratulations to you brave put owners out there.

Maybe the bloom's coming off the rose, eh? I mean, it's Google for the love of Jesus.

Did you know I have a Google connection? Yes, it's true. I'm even more interesting than you imagined. The angel investor for my company, Prophet, was none other than Andy Bechtolsheim (Sun's co-founder and Google's first investor). His $100,000 check to them is now worth billions. And, hey, he did all right on Prophet too! Thanks, Andy.

54 comments:

philippe said...

Jesus almighty.
Burrell Smith, Steve Jobs, Andy Bechtolsheim, ...
Do you know everyone?

Tim Knight said...

Hey, I get around :-)

I'm listening to the Google conference call right now, just for giggles. I wonder if the stock is going to slip beneath $500.

What's weird is that it sounds like Beelzebub is chatting on the call too. Totally bizarre. I guess you had to be there.

JakeGint said...

I'm just amazed they haven't missed earlier, with that fool who ran NOVL into the ground at the reins....

JakeGint said...

Not for nothing, but you'd think for a couple of billion in the bank, he'd spare himself the Emperor Palpatine lighting on the mug shot.

________________

Tim, are you his Sith Padawan?

Tim Knight said...

Come and learn the TRUE power of the DAHK side.

Now that this battle station is comPLETE.

Frank said...

Gary,

Why is commercial so much long on Tech? INTC, GOOGLE all got the "Hair Cut", AAPL probably next in line too. By pumping up the tech, are they just trying to fool people to dump their money in? Money flow is lower on this higher high, there's whole bunch of non-confirmation all around. Guess investor/trader are not dumb this time around. Sentiment still not totally bullish. Of course, with all these non-confirmation, how can we get bullish? And why do commerical always have to be right? Maybe this time they are the one who will be left holding the bag? Maybe "dumb" people learned, they do not allow commercial ("smart money") to dump money to them anymore...

The only reason tech was up was because these two (AAPL,GOOG) took turn to support the market. Semi did their fair share too. But without these 3, let's see how the market do...

Pardon me, but these stupid commercial or whoever is try to manipulate the market, wake up, people are not stupid anymore, stop trying to suck more money. Is time for a correction. The longer you extend, the harder is going to fall...

Frank

Brett said...

Tim,

Perhaps you and Andy can figure out a way to keep Prophet Charts from malfunctioning at least once a month. It's the greatest chart service around but totally buggy still.

Tim Knight said...

Oh, I didn't comment on the fact that the Dow closed 41 one HUNDREDTHS of a point above the 14,000 mark.

And to that I say: whoop-de-fuckin'-doo.

Winace said...

Looks like I may be right after all on MU! Bucking the system, can't help it! I'm outta control.

Winace said...

Yea, I seen that 14,000.41. Mission accomplished, now they can brag while it falls. Now, logically, 14,000 being the bechmark it is, if it broke, wouldn't it fly through it? The fact it didn't makes me want to commit it will be a down day tomorrow.

robert said...

taste the fear

Frank said...

Gary,

Sorry, but nothing against you personally. Just that I feel if commercial or whoever trying to bring more people in, they are doing a SH** job. If they going to "fool" people, at least have more "confirmation" so people would think is a real bull market. Maybe in time they will, but at least for now, is very lousy of a job they did.

P.S. I wrote wrong "they do not allow commercial ("smart money") to dump money to them anymore..."
I meant "dump stock"

Frank

Winace said...

There's some funcky looking candlesticks on the indices. Just ain't quite right.

Momo Fader said...

Hey where's that *** beanie today? Maybe he's picking up his teeth after getting slammed in the face with a slew of secondary offerings in the solar sector. LOL

Hey beanie, riddle me this. Why are insiders of FSLR selling more shares in the secondary than the company? You think this was all engineered? It was. Not only that, but the underwriters (Goldman et al) must have taken up a short position in the options market to want to announce this the day before options expiration. That's just cold-hearted.

It's been a long hard slog, but solar shorts are about to have their day. Remember the ethanol mania last year? Same drill. Short at will. TSL, SPWR, STP, FSLR all ready for some tough love.

Gary said...

Frank,
Do me a favor and pull up a 5 year chart of the S&P. Now go stand on the other side of the room. OK from the other side of the room does that look like a bull market or a bear market to you?
The amount of money in the futures market is multi billions of dollars. Do you really think these players are going to commit that kind of cash to try and fool the little guy? The little guy is meaningless. The only time the little guy matters is at the top of a bull market. Then the big money will want to suck in the little guy so they can dump their shares onto him. They will be exceedingly short in the COT at that time. Quit trying to read something into these meaningless charts just so you can try and confirm your bias. It is and has been costing the permabears a lot of money over the last 5 years. I'll let you know when the big boys are ready to start dumping onto the little guys. It's not happening yet. If you are going to be a bear the most important trait you have to have is patience. So far I've seen very little of that displayed by any of the bears.

Tim Knight said...

Do me a favor and pull up a 5 year chart of the S&P. Now go stand on the other side of the room. OK from the other side of the room does that look like a bull market or a bear market to you?

"It looks like a BULL market!"

- Joe Investor, January, 2000

Winace said...

CMCSA has 4 points left to it's target, nice retrace too. CFC (Countrywide) looks to be a good bullish play. They screwed me, go make some coin on 'em.

Winace said...

COP looks like a good short. Out of it's 18 point basing pattern, extended 18 points and simultaneously hitting the top channel on a 3 year and 1 year channel.

Winace said...

CSCO lookin bullish. Broke through a 3.40 point trading range and retraced on Wednesday. It skipped through the last 3.40 point range.

Winace said...

On 7/12 Dell made a nice retrace to support of a double bottom break out.

Winace said...

I question the Dell one though, no volume confirmation, but hey, what does that matter these days????

Winace said...

OK, one more comment on Dell. Pull up a 20yr monthly, 10/1/90 lows and 7/1/93 lows confirm it is most likely a leggit double bottom.

Tim Knight said...

Winace - you are the new beanie!

Gary said...

Tim,
I've got news for you in Jan. 2000 it still was a bull market. The market didn't really start to come apart until Sept. The commercials started hedging aggressively until May. Why is it so hard to believe me when I tell you that as long as the big money is buying you need to wait on shorts? The COT has been correct now so many thimes it's getting ridiculous. Why do the bears keep fighting it? Is it really so hard to just be patient. Nobody is dying tomorrow of cancer right? What's the big hurry? Everyone will still be here when the market is finally ready to roll over. I guarantee the COT will go short again, it always eventually does. The only reason that I can see to continue to be bearish at this point is the irrational urge to try and call a top. Does anyone see any similarities with other long term or intermediate tops yet? I don't. All I see is permabears desperately trying to find any kind of silly little divergence or a GOOG miss or whatever other ridiculous reason for why the bear market has started. How much money can the bears afford to lose?

Winace said...

Hey, I got shorts and longs. But, just liking to read my own writing I guess. Feeling lonely maybe???

JBetz said...

Looks like the GOOG long-term momentum indicator divergences seen in the 3-yr chart may pay off...

Depending on this weeks close, there will be an unconfirmed bearish Harami Cross weekly candlestick pattern (vaguely similar to the pattern in the intermediate Jan 06 top). Candlestick patterns like this are most effective during overbought environments like GOOG currently is on the daily & weekly charts.

Just a thought - I have no clue about Google's fundamental situation other than a recent interesting WSJ article discussing the companys battle with retaining talent which seems to be slowly leaving to smaller upstarts.

JB

http://dormroomtechnicals.blogspot.com/

I don't own GOOG.

Momo Fader said...

Gary,

Perhaps some people don't believe that the large commercial accounts are the divinity that you make them out to be. I heard a lot of blather last year about the lack of housing worries from well-informed bulge bracket insiders. I heard a lot more blather at the beginning of this year about sub-prime from the same sorts. Later I heard how the sub-prime problems were contained. And I heard how Alt-A, and Prime were under control. And I heard how good the models were. Perhaps some of us don't trust that the commercials haven't drunk the kool-aid too. All it takes is one exogenous event to put them behind the 8-ball, and you looking at the market move in the rearview mirror.

There were a lot of misinformed people on Wall St. about the extent of fraud in the housing market, and the extent to which their models were broken. This is all coming to light now. The only reason why there wouldn't be any misinformation on Wall St. about the extent of fraud in the equities market is because the Street is perpetrating the fraud on the little guy, as usual. The only way to short in this market is select stocks or sectors. Preferably the worst trash dreck that the cat drug in and pumped to the sky.

I wish you wouldn't beat your COT so much. It's gotten purple and yellow, and just a bit disgusting. Is that chaffing?

AssetStrategists said...

Win(a)ce,

I do like to hear what others are trading bullish, bearish and sideways and why so keep that up!

But, Dude, you must be a day trader that is used to hitting the execute button furiously. It would be much more interesting to read your posts if you'd just include them all in a single entry. Maybe if you used a good word processor that has bullets to keep the thoughts separated...

Beanie,

I was almost fooled Tuesday (or maybe I was fooled) when

DirtyTed said...
Solar stocks have likely bottomed, get in for the next leg up!
12:51 PM

I really thought that it sounded like Beanie or at least his alter ego.

bt said...

The commercials are also heavily long the Yen and heavily short oil - obviously they are totally wrong there.

Winace said...

Assetstrategists,

My appologies regarding multiple posts. I go through at least 100 charts a night. I just posted them as I came across them. I hope any information I post serves you and our other fellow traders well. I even wish Newequity well!

Tim,

C'mon man, the new Beanii? That hurts my feeling. Do you see solar skirts and pom poms on me? Did you not find my recommendations at least half interesting?

Deborah said...

I think Google is still premium priced...

JJ2000426 said...

Huge PAL BREAKOUT Today. Up more than 7%.

But the SWC BREAKOUT will be GIGANTIC! How come? Because based on the best estimate, SWC's Q2 earnings will be 26 cents, beats the 3 cents street consensus by a huge margin!

Get on the Palladium Super Bull train, NOW. The fun is in SWC.

Gary said...

I don't follow the yen so can't comment on it. Oil is most definitely been short for a while now. However they aren't the same traders in oil as the S&P. I've published my thoughts on what's going on in the oil markets previously. Short version: I think the Fed is trying to manipulate oil lower. Oil is the fly in the ointment to their money printing schemes. I think the fundamentals are over running the paper manipulation. The open interest has increased by almost 50% in the last year. I'm wondering where all that open interest came from. It doesn't seem normal. There's been no such crazy increase in the S&P. Everone has to admit the COT has been spot on for months and if you study the data it's been spot on more times than not for years. Thats a great edge. That's all anyone can ask for is an edge.

All I'm suggesting is to have patience. Why can't anyone address that one simple problem. That is really the only thing keeping the bears from making money is the lack of patience. There will be another bear market no doubt. But if you don't time it correctly you aren't going to get there with any money left to do anything about it. The COT just gives you a much more reliable sell signal. How about some intelligent comments on the lack of patience.

Tim Knight said...

"How about some intelligent comments on the lack of patience."

I would, but it would take too much time.

Gary said...

Ahh and therein lies your downfall. LOL

DirtyTed said...

ok, since i "called for a bottom" in solars, they were hit by "bad news" from spwr, and todays down move in the naz, yet FSLR and JASO are trading at about the same level, i stand by the bottom call

DirtyTed said...

i mean think about it. Bad news everywhere and they hardly budge. Grab your balls and buy um!

robert said...

gary, i appreciate your comments and would appreciate them more without the lectures ....thanks

Tim Knight said...

My shorts are EN FUEGO!

Oh, and my portfolio positions are hot too.

thedocument said...

You know, we bears can come up with banal assertations regarding the Dow, as well, though it takes a bit more effort for us to suppress reason. I mean, 14000.41 is a nice, symmetrical number for a top. Kinda looks like its own head and shoulders pattern. Has a nice ring to it, too... kinda like 2722.42

Shawn said...

Hey All! I think a prophet can mark this number as the mother of all top!!

14,000.41, or "1400041"

Look closely.
1) The last 2-digit is reverse of the 1st 2-digit

2) There are 3 zeros in between. The mid-ZERO is like a mirror reflecting the image of 140 -> 041.

Holly!! Prophecy of Mother of All Top is confirmed!

Now Bears can party! :)

Tim Knight said...

Believe me, some of the methods people email me about as the basis for their trading make the above seem very sensible and sober.

yogi said...

I hate to burst all of your bubbles, well maybe not, but the Dow went up to 14008.86 this a.m. Sorry.

Tim Knight said...

It's the *closing* price they were talking about.

The HIGH on the Dow was higher than 14,000 today, yes.........but that has happened twice already before today.

For those keeping score at home, I sold ALL my index puts and have a modest long index position now.

Basically about 90% in cash right now. I'm backing away.

yogi said...

Ahh, the error of my ways.

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