Wednesday, July 11, 2007


Sweet Jesus on a Biscuit......can we please get some direction? Yesterday's 148 point drop on the Dow was encouraging. But follow through? Of course not. We bounce back today by half that amount. Zzzzzzzzzz. Give us as break - literally - through one of those price lines!

Oh, a bit of housekeeping. I've made a couple of cosmetic improvements. First, at the request of a comment made to the previous post, I have reduced the number of posts displayed down from 7 to 3. That will speed up loading time and make for a shorter page to scroll. Second, I've changed the scheme of my charts to what I think is a much cleaner appearance. Let me know what you think. Oh, and in case you've forgotten, click on any chart to see a much bigger version.

Back to charts. The Russell 2000 is in the same boat every other index is - if it breaks beneath a very clearly defined support level, it's time to rock and roll. If it continues to fart around in this range, it's just going to keep boring the pants off of everyone. And if it breaks into new high territory, that's when I climb to the top span of the Golden Gate.

I bought a bunch of puts on the $XAU today based on its price position relative to its well-defined channel. A stop-loss on this would not be expensive, since we're mushed up so high against the channel.

Cardinal Health (CAH), mentioned here numerous times, is on the cusp of a breakdown. But until it goes beneath that neckline, it is a pattern in formation, and nothing more.

I found the puts on Chinese equity-based FXI were fairly heavily traded, so I acquired some today.

I mentioned McGraw Hill (MHP) as a short last month, and it has lost about 15% of its value since then.

Now, as you know, I acquired a couple of iPhones on National Steve Jobs Day, and I made a little video about it. It's a terrific product. There's a ton of wizardy and magic in it, and I'm proud to show it off.

But, Lord almighty, this thing has bugs. Bugs, bugs, bugs! And I'm not even a heavy user. I just checked, and I've used it a total of 9 hours and 36 minutes. That's decent, but it's hardly an exhaustive field test.

In that time I've tripped over a surprising array of really serious issues. Like the fact that the phone outright hangs so hard that I have to reboot it. And the lack of basic editing features, such as double-clicking on a word not selecting that word. Or the inability to insert a cursor within a word (e.g. if you misspell a word, you have to erase the whole frickin' thing and retype it instead of correcting the offending letter).

The worst bug of all is Safari crashing. Which it does. Constantly. So a typical example is like're cruising along, looking at a web page, scrolling up or down a bit. And then - bam! - it throws you right back to the "home" screen of the iPhone. No big deal, you say, I'll simply go back to Safari (the web browser). Sure, you can do that - - but you're starting at scratch again. The page you were looking at is gone.

This happens to me so constantly that I'm put off on looking at any web content anymore. It isn't just a nuisance. It basically eviscerates one of the principal reasons for having this thing!

Added to which, every time I plug the iPhone into its dock for some juice, this stupid window appears on my desktop, so I have to cancel out of it. Annoying as hell.

Luckily, someone has helped me to release some of my frustration by asking the question: Will It Blend?


Winace said...

I feel like someone is selling me an item from an infomercial. Still waiting Tim. I am really interested in your take of todays market action. The candlestick patterns are WAY strange. I'm looking for the continuation of weakness tomorrow even though there are plenty of piercing patterns and bullish engulfing patterns posted today.

Tim Knight said...

Sorry, Winace - - I meant to nuke that first comment (a gross advertisement) but forgot to....sorry to make you wait for the post today. Shouldn't be much longer :-(

traderdave said...


My mate had simular issues with his iPhone. Great Work on the this and all the vids- Where on earth do you get these. Thanks for the TA on the markets.

Thanks - David

2sweeties said...

I have read somewhere on a site of financial astrology that

"Apple released its new Iphone this past week, under the Mercury and Uranus retrogrades. Mercury rules telephones, and Uranus rules telecommunications. Under the dual retrograde, we wonder how long it will take before a recall is announced. It doesn’t appear that Apple used the services of an astrologer to launch this new product."

It looks like they will recall it, doesn't it?

And some says financial astrology is bullshit...
No more than the COT report, IMHO.

troy said...

You can probably write off the xau puts. Hard to find a better money loosing trade then that given fundamentals and technical facts.

Vic said...

I have an Imac I have been using for trading and it has a habit of locking up typically when I need it the most.Ive read that mozilla will cure the lock up problem and make browsing quicker but I fear security . I just bought a GTW quadcore for trading and will retire the Imac for my kids web surfing. FXI will probably continue skyward as long as we keep providing the chinese with capital by bldg our factories there and buying all their crap.. Also I read that the fxi is controlled by the Brits and that they will not let it fall hard. But just in case I will buy some puts-just in case.

Brett said...


I'm not sure what your experience is with Apple products, but all the issues you mentioned will certainly be fixed via a quick and easy software update. I have 3 mac computers and have had 4 iPods, and it has rarely taken long for all issues to get fixed. Actually, my Motorola Q, my Treo and every other smartphone I've had has had many MORE problems than this one, and no attempt by either manufacturer was made to correct them. At least Apple works to make their products perfect.

I also have a list of bugs with my iPhone including:

1) Speakerphone is too soft
2) Bluetooth is choppy in my BMW
3) battery info (last full charge, etc.) doesn't show

However, wait until the first update which shouldn't be too long and I'm sure many changes will be made. Plus, over time they'll modify the appearance and functionality of the home page as well.

It's just the beginning.

thedocument said...

Okay you had this coming over the iPhone: I told you so.

Buy a Mogul. It comes with IE, which sucks, but you can install Opera on it, which rocks AND which you can customize it by editing ini files. Not to mention the screen is so good, you can view high-resolution Google satellite images. HTC has totally spanked Apple on the next-gen phone.

Leisa said...

2 Sweeties--if you are going to quote someone, at least give the courtesy of attribution. Your post is from Ray Merriman. His weekly commentary can be found here:

Gary said...

2sweeties, just keep bashing the COT but it continues to keep any followers on the correct side of the market while you and the TA crowd keep trying to pick tops.

sam said...

Broke out of triangle formation. New highs in indexs. DOW target 13900 -14100. Sammy.

newequity said...

I closed all my puts and went long. The market clearly is telling us new highs coming for the foreseeable future.

Andrew said...

actually, it is a pretty clear short signal. for the record, reloaded SPY puts at this time: SPY: 153.07

JakeGint said...

SPY up 20 bps since, for the record.... where's your cover?


I wonder if Tim can email in a blog post from the top of the Golden Gate? I think even AT&T gets coverage from there....

Gary said...

You are either in denial or you have a death wish. How much stronger does the market have to be? All it could do was one meager down day. Jeesh it never ceases to amaze me at what the bears can latch onto to try and support their negative views.

Chris said...

Is it me, or has anyone else been noticing that volume is rather light on these explosive up days?


While I do agree that apple makes nice products, I disagree with you that they strive for perfection. Apple in recent years has created a mystique through excellent marketing which has allowed them to excel. For me, their products are rather simple and bland, and offer nothing of real innovation or genius. While their tech is usually one step behind, their marketing strategy is two steps ahead.

Tim Knight said...

"I wonder if Tim can email in a blog post from the top of the Golden Gate? I think even AT&T gets coverage from there...."

Yeah, I can, but brrrr it's cold up here! I'm climbing down.

I think I've already picked the title for today's post: "Be Careful What You Wish For"