Monday, February 12, 2007

Four Hundred

Today is my 400th post (huzzah!) May God grant me the strength to see it through to post number 500. And smite anonymous phone callers.

The stock market these days reminds me of a celebrity. With makeup on, they can be very sexy and alluring. Without the gloss and shine, however, it can be a scary sight.

The S&P was somewhat weak today, as was the market as a whole. This was a nice relief, since a springback from Friday's weakness would have heartened the bulls. However, we have to cut beneath 1417 to break the series of higher highs/higher lows. Otherwise, we're just going to continue to waste our lives waiting.

The $VIX is, understandably, pushing higher.

I'm kind of "charted out" for now, so let me share just a few. At long last, some of the commercial realty stocks are falling. Here's sky-high AIV, for example.

Amlyn (AMLN) remains a favorite short.

I've mentioned BP a bunch of times. The head and shoulders formation - and it's a huge one - continues to form nicely.

CNX is also in a topping pattern with a very clear stop-loss price.

And although I have no position in NutriSystem anymore (NTRI), I would be terrified being long this stock. It's in a huge no-man's-land right now, and there is very little in the way of support between its current price and........I won't even say how low.

On to post 401! See you tomorrow.


stockshaker said...

Tim, FINALLY we may see a pullback that we've been waiting for since, oh... august???

Before I start holding my breath, I just have a quick question:

When I draw trendlines, I usually try to touch as many points as possible (thus making it more accurate of a trendline-guesstimation).

However, I've noticed you have a more relaxed approach to this. For example, on your CNX chart, you have two points that are touched on your big trendline. or even AMLN - while I would normally have made it a bit more tighter.

Just curious...

Thanks again for the hard work. And congrats to 400. Hope to have you partying at 4000th as well!

Louis said...

Greetings Tim.
That Australian phone message is funny...
Anger comes from confusion, fear, and, as Bear ship is about to come in in a big way all over... you are sure to get a lot more of it.Shouldn't all the hassles, nasty remarks, and screems be a assuarance of your success???

Louis said...

Forgot to Thank you for the picks.
Thanks You!
BXP is a wet dream for a put buyer.. If you would kindly take a look at some of my picks, ANF, SKS, BBBY, JCP, JPC, NWY.... Yes, these are tomorrows put list, and they happen to be retail stocks.
It is a brilliant scheme of the universe how these align, isn,t it???

Tim Knight said...

Thus far, the voicemail marked the high water mark of the market.

Wouldn't it be divine justice if that was the high water mark for years to come. Talk about a contrarian indicator!

StockShaker, my big rule of trendlines is that they never "cheat" and have lines piercing through them. I consider my approach more upright, actually, not more relaxed. Buy my book to learn more :-)

Seriously, my book comes out in a week. Can't wait to see it finally!

wattson7 said...

Thanks Tim, for the 7 picks from yesterday. I filled the orders on the put contracts with the exception of AZO this morning, April and June near the money. Went to June on most of them to give enough time. I expect to see good results. Your book will be a great read. I am looking forward to it. This option play is much more interesting than just shorting. I hope it all turns out. It's money that i consider high risk. But, i was able to control 175000 shares of stock for a fraction of the cash. I am not afraid to ask questions, so I will look to you for some additional help on exercise them. It must be grace that you do this for people. It's your purpose (40 Days (Warren) no doubt. Anyway,

Be Blessed,

BTW i only bought 50% of the plan so keep them coming.

Leisa said...

Toshi--congrats on your 400th post. I own more books than I could possibly read, but I will buy your book to support you effort both on the book and this blog. Oh shucks, of course I'll read it.

Anonymous said...

Bravo on the 400, I just discovered your blog two weeks ago and I think it is great! Bravo!

chronictown said...

Tim,thanks for your time.keepem comin.

z-stock said...

Tim, I don’t mean to rain ( or back east people, snow) on your ***parade***, but Hydl did a Pd. I’ve heard Lss is a take over target, so it’s been said.
Otherwise, yesterday’s and today’s list, look like keepers. Gs puts (to tough to call).
Ntri (eps wise) is doing a lot better than 2006 and forward earnings is hot, in fact on fire. Gapped down at 57.5. That’s a likely target price.

I call it Green Friday, or Market keeps going sideways. That’s when the market generally moves up on options expiration Friday. Tumbling oil prices+ moderate PPI (fri)= tech rally?
Week two of March. (possible 6% correction) Just in time to get nervous about April earnings.
Call alert Ande Bpt Lrcx Sbux look intriguing.

beanie11111 said...

Are the bears dead yet? lol

beanie11111 said...

NYX has bottomed short term!