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The bullish push back up from last week's damage continues. At this point, I could go one of two ways. One way is to say that the recovery is over and that we're about to re-enter another bearish leg. Another way is to say there are still several hundred Dow points to go before we re-enter such a leg. Apparently tomorrow morning's economic reports are going to have a lot to do with this.

As for today, the Dow was firm most of the day, but just as with yesterday, it gave up some steam near the end.


The thing is, at this point, just about any chart could be subjected to completely valid bullish or bearish arguments. So just to keep everyone confused, I'm going to show you a few index charts and say one or two bullish and bearish things about each one. First, here's the Russell 2000 on a daily basis:


Bullish Conclusions: There's free sailing until $795 before two simultaneous Fib retracements are reached. And there is a huge amount of room between the current price levels and the underside of that major trendline that was broken - - up to about $810.

Bearish Conclusions: The stock bounced perfectly off its 38.2% retracement today. It showed a lot of strength but couldn't keep it up. It's a nice shooting star pattern (albeit in the middle of a chart).

Now here is the same index on a minute bar basis:


Bullish Conclusions: Largely the same as above. You can see the Fib lines more clearly.

Bearish Conclusions: The astonishing thing to me is how perfectly it obeyed the Fib. The 38.2% retracement level is at 786.78. The high today was 786.75. That's only 00.03 points! Absolutely amazing!

Here is the S&P 500 on a minute bar basis:


Bullish Conclusions: See that blue line just beneath the current prices? That's a pretty major supporting line. If we rally tomorrow, that line is going to hold strong as major support for a while.

Bearish Conclusions: This also bounced right off the 38.2% retracement.

And here is the same index with daily bars:


Bullish Conclusions: This offers a better view of that huge trendline that used to be resistance but is now support.

Bearish Conclusions: That same line was penetrated, albeit just a little bit, and there is a huge empty space beneath the line representing how far this sucker could fall.

As for the $VIX, I feel pretty good about how much it has fallen. When it was about 20, I made a mental note that it should get down to about 13 to get the hot air out. It has done so. If today is another strong up today, this could lose a couple more points.


AMLN looks like it's close to breaking its huge topping pattern.


Chicago Mercantile (CME) was up a bit today, so my puts suffered some, but I still love this chart. Satan himself continues to speak through this blog - note the eerie point change today.


And what can you say about a stock like Google which actually falls on such a strong up day. Something tells me the leadership days of this stock are a thing of the past.


Tomorrow should be the most interesting day of the week. Let's hope it's interesting in a good way. See you then.

Four Hundred

Today is my 400th post (huzzah!) May God grant me the strength to see it through to post number 500. And smite anonymous phone callers.

The stock market these days reminds me of a celebrity. With makeup on, they can be very sexy and alluring. Without the gloss and shine, however, it can be a scary sight.


The S&P was somewhat weak today, as was the market as a whole. This was a nice relief, since a springback from Friday's weakness would have heartened the bulls. However, we have to cut beneath 1417 to break the series of higher highs/higher lows. Otherwise, we're just going to continue to waste our lives waiting.


The $VIX is, understandably, pushing higher.


I'm kind of "charted out" for now, so let me share just a few. At long last, some of the commercial realty stocks are falling. Here's sky-high AIV, for example.


Amlyn (AMLN) remains a favorite short.


I've mentioned BP a bunch of times. The head and shoulders formation - and it's a huge one - continues to form nicely.


CNX is also in a topping pattern with a very clear stop-loss price.


And although I have no position in NutriSystem anymore (NTRI), I would be terrified being long this stock. It's in a huge no-man's-land right now, and there is very little in the way of support between its current price and........I won't even say how low.


On to post 401! See you tomorrow.

Ultra Chicken

I've been wrong enough to know that I'm not going to start cheering on a bear market. The market was down today. I'm glad. Maybe it'll be down a lot more this week. Which will make me happier still. But until we have a no-doubt-about-it rupture in the uptrend, I'm keeping my furry mouth shut.

The $VIX may have formed a "V" bottom with recent activity, which would obviously be good for both put holders (me) and bears (me again).


I've mentioned AMLN a bunch recently, and it continues to behave like a good little stock (on the short side).


I take pride in being such a pure technician that I know only the ticker symbol - - I don't know the company's name, and I certainly don't know what it does. The symbol is AXR. I shorted it Friday. And today it lost double-digits of points. Nice.


I got burned a couple of weeks back buying puts on superstock AutoZone (AZO). I'm ready for more punishment.


Cigna is a much less volatile stock, but I see a double top here and a stairstep down these Fibonacci levels forthcoming.


Shoe god Nike is another security on which I own puts. It took a nice little stumble today, but I have much bigger ambitions on this one.


I haven't touched NutriSystem in ages, but I'm ready to go back into the water. There's a small head and shoulders pattern here, and this is the kind of fad stock that can succumb to gravity.


RAI is a good short in the world of metals.


...as is RTI......


Sears Holding (SHLD) is another item I've avoided, only because it has the makings of such a sensational cup with handle pattern. But this pattern is starting to look shaky, so I'm OK putting some risk capital into some puts on this one.


Lastly, a bit from one of my favorite cartoons - Aqua Teen Hunger Force. This one is only a little offensive, so you are probably safe clicking the Play button, no matter how far away you live from the coasts of this great nation.

When Great News Doesn't Help

After the market closed today, tech bellwether Apple, Inc. announced not just great earnings, but Oh My God blowout earnings. And how did the market react after hours? Well, both Apple and the NASDAQ fell. GLOBEX is down too. When stocks soften on amazingly great earnings, that's a good sign for us ursine types.

Some indexes pushed to lifetime highs intraday today, but ran out of steam. I do not see any sensational, obvious, the-world-is-coming-to-an-end type pattern. If the market falls, it's going to do so simply because there are no more Greater Fools. As for the S&P 500, shown below, it needs to break below 1,400 before things get interesting.


The Russell 2000 seems to be consolidating right now. I am hoping the current consolidation is similar to the prior one, both of which are shown in light blue highlighting here.


And check out the Transports - aren't trendlines amazing? The prices did a perfect about-face.


My AMLN short - so far, so good. It's down to $40 in after-hours trading. This is a sharp looking graph.


Bear Stearns has had an ungodly amazing run. Again, this isn't a slam-dunk bearish pattern, but more of a "this is stretched to the max" situation. But some maxes can out-max themselves, as we painfully know.


The same logic holds true for Goldman Sachs.


I rarely mention Nvidia, but puts on this stock could benefit greatly from any general downturn in tech stocks, given its huge runup.


Lastly, a suggestion for a buy (or calls)......Oil Services (OIH). My view is that the drop in crude prices has had its run. Take a good look at how strong volume has been recently, in the midst of the stock consolidating in the upper 120s. Stop-loss price on this one would be $125.80, in my opinion.

Shuttering Anon

I've shut off Anonymous comments again. It's not that I'm upset by the put-downs; believe me, I've got a thick skin. But some clown has become so abusive - without anything constructive to say - that I'm demanding a person at least show themselves to make a comment. I've had enough.

Most of the sniping has been about suggestions that didn't work out. That's what stops are for, people! And things aren't going to turn on a dime. Let me give you a specific example.

Almost exactly a month ago, I suggested Conoco (COP) as a short. If you look at the graph I posted, it seemed like it was at the top of a trading range.

I suggested the short when it was at about $71. The stock quickly climbed to $74.89, so yes, you could have laughed and thrown bricks at me for making a stupid suggestion. But after a few days of going up, it started descending, and now it's at $61. A 9% drop in a month really isn't shabby, even though I was "wrong" for the first few trading days. So excuse me if everything doesn't work out perfectly. I've drawn a green rectangle around the "Tim is an idiot" timeframe.


Today's action pushed the Dow to yet another lifetime, never-before-seen high. I took advantage of this to sell into the trading near the top of the day's range. I really like the look of the Russell 2000.


Take a closer look at the $RUT. I've drawn the lower highs and lower lows. Very attractive.


Just a couple of short suggestions tonight. One is AMLN. I can't say for sure that this isn't going to recover more. No promises. But this is a very toppy looking formation.


The other one is Camden Properties (CPT), which also is in recovery mode. I'm selling into the strength of this one.


Good-bye, anonymous posters. I really don't think I'll be letting you in again.