Thursday, January 11, 2007

Shuttering Anon

I've shut off Anonymous comments again. It's not that I'm upset by the put-downs; believe me, I've got a thick skin. But some clown has become so abusive - without anything constructive to say - that I'm demanding a person at least show themselves to make a comment. I've had enough.

Most of the sniping has been about suggestions that didn't work out. That's what stops are for, people! And things aren't going to turn on a dime. Let me give you a specific example.

Almost exactly a month ago, I suggested Conoco (COP) as a short. If you look at the graph I posted, it seemed like it was at the top of a trading range.

I suggested the short when it was at about $71. The stock quickly climbed to $74.89, so yes, you could have laughed and thrown bricks at me for making a stupid suggestion. But after a few days of going up, it started descending, and now it's at $61. A 9% drop in a month really isn't shabby, even though I was "wrong" for the first few trading days. So excuse me if everything doesn't work out perfectly. I've drawn a green rectangle around the "Tim is an idiot" timeframe.


Today's action pushed the Dow to yet another lifetime, never-before-seen high. I took advantage of this to sell into the trading near the top of the day's range. I really like the look of the Russell 2000.


Take a closer look at the $RUT. I've drawn the lower highs and lower lows. Very attractive.


Just a couple of short suggestions tonight. One is AMLN. I can't say for sure that this isn't going to recover more. No promises. But this is a very toppy looking formation.


The other one is Camden Properties (CPT), which also is in recovery mode. I'm selling into the strength of this one.


Good-bye, anonymous posters. I really don't think I'll be letting you in again.

11 comments:

Lauriston said...

Tim - i liked your comments about "stops" on the comments for yesterday's posts. I was in QQQQ and IWM puts and just closed them this morning as soon as the markets opened. I took my stops and felt bad and then moved on, scouting for other trades. I don't like this rally, but it just keeps going, but I think it is rather late for me to get in now, I'd rather miss it at this point. SAP, samsung, interest rates, dollar, commodities, etc the markets just ignore and keep going. There is a time for bulls and bears, and I think bear time is soon. I looked at January 2005 and we started very strong and mid-January we dropped and almost wiped out all that rally. Maybe we'll do that again. I am keen to see if European/German markets will ignore SAP tomorrow...

onewaystox said...

Bears,

These is UPSIDE RISK to this market, not the other way around.

Tim, please show us fibonacci EXTENSIONs for the DJIA above the 11,750 support.

Also, please show us what a MEASURED MOVE off the 7200-bottom would look like above the 11,750 top...If my math is correct, I think it comes to djia-16300.

Thanks.

Wayne said...

I'm glad you turned off the annon postings. They generally didn't have anyting constructive to say, and whoever criticizes free (and outstanding) info needs to be flogged.

Your column, like every other newletter, makes suggestions. If someone follows a suggestion without doing his own reearch, shame on them. If they were so smart, then their research would have shown a bad trade and they wouldn't be getting into it anyway.

I am bullish by nature, but I play plenty of bearish trades, many of which I am alerted to through this newsletter. And, no, I don't blame you if they go wrong!

Thanks for the Pro Bono work. I am sure it is appreciated by many people who don't speak up.

Kurt said...

Tim,
Could you please explain sometime how you decide what strike price to set and what duration to use for puts? Some examples and insights, coming from an experienced trader, would be very instructive.

Great blog. I find myself coming back here frequently to check for updates.

Old Soldier said...

Tim,

Thank you for taking a stand against the "Anon's". Wasted space and time. You do an awesome work here that takes your time everyday. I thank you for your efforts. I am not a bull nor bear but I enjoy your trade ideas and analysis. Solid to the core!

I do not allow anon's on my site since the beginning. Just not worth it and I really do not care how many comments I get. It is the good ones and the emails that make it all worth it.

Looking forward to the New Trading Year!!! BTW: I have enjoyed a really good Bull start to the year so far but I have some Puts and Shorts also working.

Regards,

Randy

philippe said...

re "anon's"
People don't want to take responsibility for their own actions and feel good blaming somebody else.
Shame on them.
And all this addressed to someone who selflessly shares his best without asking any compensation on top of it!
I can only thank you and appreciate you sharing your time, experience and wisdom.
Philippe

JP said...

Tim, If you could predict the exact moment your sentiments on certain stocks would move, you wouldn't be here right now, lol. Divergent RSI's, bearish charts, might not break till weeks after they begin an indication. Stops are mandatory, and i cant believe people trade without them. Keep up the good blog, i enjoy reading it.

Leisa said...

We do have some wonderful posters such as Trader 2006 and Tony B that had anonymous handles, but always signed their posts. I hope that they will join back.

PB said...

Tim:

that green box on COP looks like it's giving the finger. CPT is a fine short, but I can't find options on it. Is there?

Anyways, still one of the best blogs out there even with your open door policy!. It's too bad it brought out the bitches instead of the intelligentsia!

h. lovil said...

Wow- this has been a tough few weeks for shorts.

I have been taken to the cleaners, as the wall of money washed over my shorts.

Got a few shorts left...hanging on with significant losses.

Not sure what to do now?!

Mousefinger said...

Tim;

I'm very glad you turned off the Anon comments. They were annoying, useless and poorly punctuated.

Looks like the market is going up.

Cheers.

/Mouse