Friday, January 19, 2007

Week's End

There was an interesting article about the GAO's report to Congress about the looming financial catastrophe facing the U.S. This is getting much less attention than it deserves. You can read the original GAO report here. For the Federal Government to issue a report sub-titled "Saving Our Future Requires Tough Choices Today" is surprisingly candid. And you know how adept the government is at tough choices (hint: it isn't).

Here's one graphic from the report, showing how the social security trust fund is going to dip into the red in just ten years. Just look at the deficits grow to $400 billion per year!

It's been a while since I mentioned any FOREX trades, but the New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) looks pretty interesting as a short. I'd say if it trades anywhere north of 73 cents, I'm wrong. I've drawn a horizontal line suggesting what seems to be a strong resistance level.

My OIH calls are doing well. All the press about crude oil's plunge in prices in a good contrarian indicator of a short-term bottom.

I mentioned Abbott Labs (ABT) a while back as a promising bullish play. It seems to be going that direction. The strong volume only helps.

Coldwater Creek (CWTR) got hammered today. Trendlines did their magic once again. Chartists were given fair warning recently when prices violated the ascending trendline. Prices pushed higher from there, but then got really ragged around the trendline again.

One new short idea is Martin Marietta (MLM). This appears to be a solid double top. This kind of pattern is nice since the risk is relatively low (e.g. the stop price would be $114).


John said...


Please stop talking about the social security trust fund is going to get people upset.

Jusy keep those FICA contributions flowing...there are those of us who appreciate all your folks are doing for us.

Now pass the'all look thirsty.

Sanjay Sola said...

from what i can see, I think this market is in trouble. the Fed is hanging over the market and the back to back distribution days in the Nasdaq was very telling. it looks like we had a false break of 2470 on the Nasdaq.

it's still not a bear market yet, but good news is bad news and bad news is even worse. the next Fed meeting will be a major market mover to the downside probably. we'll see what happens. best to play conservatively. February tends to be a bad month for stocks.

Lauriston said...

Tim, excellent charts, excellent ideas (like the stop at 114 - those are the type I like to take a really close look at), excellent way to end the week, even though the trading day itself was way too grinding and luckluster...

ODA125 said...


You gave away my secret trade... Just kidding! I have rode this up from October and have been preparing for this ride back down with some really good Puts. This is one I am "pulling" for to drop.

Thanks as usual for really great posts!!!

wincity said...

A funny and insightful song.

Capital keeps falling on my head

It is said to be the Christmas card Sam Zell sent to friends.

ctkwtk said...

XLY vs. USO. Looks like mirror images of each other.

EddieFl said...

Waiting patiently on GS and BSc to fall.
DOw down 91pts,,, and those financial are holding up.... ludicrious,,, completely ludicrious,,, i am getting ready to start blaming the Tri_lateral commission, secret roundtable of 12 Jews who run the world, The Freemasons, The right-wing vast consipracy,,,,,,,, I will get to the bottom of this,, oh, i will..

h. lovil said...

Eddie- even LEH dropped and GS stayed up. I think they must knwo the time and date of the attck on iran and are positioning themselves to profit from it.

heck maybe they even decided the date!