Monday, January 22, 2007

Ultra Chicken

I've been wrong enough to know that I'm not going to start cheering on a bear market. The market was down today. I'm glad. Maybe it'll be down a lot more this week. Which will make me happier still. But until we have a no-doubt-about-it rupture in the uptrend, I'm keeping my furry mouth shut.

The $VIX may have formed a "V" bottom with recent activity, which would obviously be good for both put holders (me) and bears (me again).

I've mentioned AMLN a bunch recently, and it continues to behave like a good little stock (on the short side).

I take pride in being such a pure technician that I know only the ticker symbol - - I don't know the company's name, and I certainly don't know what it does. The symbol is AXR. I shorted it Friday. And today it lost double-digits of points. Nice.

I got burned a couple of weeks back buying puts on superstock AutoZone (AZO). I'm ready for more punishment.

Cigna is a much less volatile stock, but I see a double top here and a stairstep down these Fibonacci levels forthcoming.

Shoe god Nike is another security on which I own puts. It took a nice little stumble today, but I have much bigger ambitions on this one.

I haven't touched NutriSystem in ages, but I'm ready to go back into the water. There's a small head and shoulders pattern here, and this is the kind of fad stock that can succumb to gravity.

RAI is a good short in the world of metals. is RTI......

Sears Holding (SHLD) is another item I've avoided, only because it has the makings of such a sensational cup with handle pattern. But this pattern is starting to look shaky, so I'm OK putting some risk capital into some puts on this one.

Lastly, a bit from one of my favorite cartoons - Aqua Teen Hunger Force. This one is only a little offensive, so you are probably safe clicking the Play button, no matter how far away you live from the coasts of this great nation.


Lauriston said...

"no-doubt-about-it rupture in the uptrend"

well said, and that is exactly what I am waiting for too. This market is really teasing us (I am currently short-term bear). I noted on my blog how financials spoiled the fun today. Out of nowhere MS for example just took off and was 3% up at some point. I had to scratch my head a few times, but there you go. NKE looks really good, I will watch it next few weeks and look for an entry if it accommodates me

h. lovil said...

Tim- H and S starting on PCU?

fastermasterblaster said...


I'd bet some of my 3 day QID profits it will be a good week for the bears.

I interpreted the last bull rally was the climax run, the high point, the harbinger of a down trend. Time will tell, but if it does reverse direction it will be for nought. Down we go.

Next couple of days are critical but this bull rally is dead man walking.

Leisa said...

Forget about the I so old and stupid that I do not understand your video? Now trust, me, I understood every nuance of the Toshi video. I laughed raucously at the William Shatner roast (and I must say that the new PriceLIne commercials are very well done). But this thing? I didn't get it. But the french fry man made me hungry (for french fries, nothing untoward).

Market topic....I will confess, that the last nail of my failed prognostications coffin was hammered on Friday with the expiration of my ^#$%!#$^%& WFC puts. My NY resolution is to not buy any options this year. I'm going to quick cold turkey--like a heroine addict. I'll use the inverse short (double of cours) etf's as my methadone. It will be like depriving an addict of ...well whatever. I did so well at the beginning of the year, and made the terrible mistake of thinking I knew something special. Well, I know that I'm a dumb a@@ for thinking I knew something. if only I understood this video my life would be complete.'s time for 24. I was in B& N last Tuesday...they had sold out of the 24 DVD's available only that day.

shiftpoint said...

Hey Tim,

AXR has a real small float and it's hard to short. What broker are you using that let you short AXR?


Leisa said...

Post 24...I did ask my son about the french fry man (with a goatee no less). He is almost 16. He says this is the stupid cartoon he has ever seen. No reflection on you, Toshi. But I feel some vindication that though I'm old and stupid--perhaps not so much to the degree I was fretting about previously.

And Jack, like Toshi, is Soooooooooooooo good. He will save us from the terrorists and the bulls.

Paul Stiles said...


that is from "aqua teen hunger force". an excellent show on cartoon network that is in its 4th (or 5th) season. i think they're working on a movie too. "Arise Chicken, chick arise!!!"

about AXR. why anyone would short a stock that has 84% of its float already shorted is beyond me. just watch the thing tank, much like Empire Resources did just before the May 2006 top.

i'm bearish btw

EddieFl said...

BSC and GS puts.

Ok, looks like the financial are week today, market is higher and they are selling them BSC and GS,, holding my PUTS.

Ok, everything is better, now i dont have to write my 3 page diatribe on how the Tri-lateral commission and "they" are robbing money from me, the conspiracy goes to the top.

GS should be good for a 10-15pt drop..

stockshaker said...

I'm liking the GS and BSC as well, but are you going to bet against the house during earnings season? Or do you like jumping infront of fast moving trains?

Markets for a pullback is a nice tough, and looking at the graphs, the momentum has clearly shifted. I would imagine this being much easier of a call to make, for puts.

EddieFl said...


correct never good idea to try to stop a locomotive.

My "put" position is relatively safe, not a large position,, close to into the money.

the daily and the 60 minute charts look very toppy and they are weak today on a up day of the market.

trader said...

When you have STEEL ,RAIL, And HOUSING stocks all going gangbusters all on the same day ,it is going to be very difficult to get a signifigant pullback. Those 3 sectors all reresent a strong global economy sense out there in La-La land.And as far as the market is concerned,it just finished a 4 day mini-correction.Look at the Up/Down volume and the Adv/Dec lines.It's 3 to 1 for the upside.It's just the facts.!

Louis said...

You said "RAI is a good short in the world of metals." Did you mean another company or R. J. Reynolds the tobacco company?

Thanks for the work you put into this blog. Interesting!