Thursday, February 01, 2007


Wow, I have never been so late with a blog posting before! I am a day late but, thanks to my NZD/USD trade, far from a dollar short. I've been up since 3 a.m. catching up, and I am at long last going to do the post I wanted to do last night! (Technical Note: Blogger seems to be having major issues recently. I can't view comments, and I imagine none of you have been able to post. The lateness of this post is my fault, but the technical problems are not!)

If you saw the news last night, you should recognize what a scoop I provided with my bizarre post a week or so ago. That clip was from Aqua Teen Hunger Force and - wouldn't you know it? - they were the top story yesterday. No, I'm serious. There was a huge bomb scare in Boston, and it was due to a publicity stunt from our french dry/milk shake/meatball pals. Nice going, Frylock.

OK, back to charts. Today's entry is a little weird because I start pulling charts for it at 4 in the morning and was still doing so just 90 minutes before the close of the market. So this isn't a typical end of day commentary.

Kudos to those of you who took my NTRI suggestion seriously. This was a beautiful chart. It had a lot of good elements.....a major ascending trendline that had been broken.....a clear area of resistance.........a (sloppy) head and shoulders pattern. And it positively fell to pieces subsequent to my suggestion to check it out.

For those who didn't mind the risk, the rewards were handsome. Check out the action on this NTRI put - - up thousands of percent in just a few days!

Bulls in the stock market can take heart from the Transports. It looks like this has broken its clear bearish pattern. And, as I'm typing this, it looks like the market is headed to another solid close higher.

The S&P 500 is at the very, very top of its ascending channel. Any higher, and it's going to break above resistance.

Another cheer-up for the bulls is the MidCap 400. This is about as good a cup with handle pattern as you're ever going to see (my lame rendition of the pattern, in green, notwithstanding).

The Dow 30 seems to be headed for yet another closing higher today (the market's got another hour and a half open as I type this). But it's still below the ascending trendline is broke early last month.

For a bullish play, I like Genentech (DNA). The saucer shape and the volume both look positive.

CNX for a short idea.

Bank of America (BAC) is another good short idea. I closed my puts a couple of days ago at a profit, and it looks like it might be time to re-enter.

Sun Microsystems (SUNW), mentioned a month ago (or so) as a bullish play, is doing well. This is a gigantic saucer - just massive.

No one has commented on my FOREX suggestion (maybe there are only equity players here), but it's been doing amazing things. I've doubled my account balance in just a week based on this one currency.

I had never charted MWP before, but this is another good short idea.

McDonalds (MCD), shown here with Bollinger bands and the RSI, is a pretty safe bearish play.

And Google (GOOG), which announced earnings last night, is doing something really interesting - specifically, it's acting like a normal stock. In the past, whenever they had earnings, there were these massive gaps (highlighted here in green). There was no gap today - - although it's somewhat bearish for GOOG that yet another quarter of blow-out earnings is actually producing a down day (so far) for the stock.

My apologies to any of you wondering what took me so long to do the post. It's been nuts!

Remark on Comments: I think the geniuses at Google (Blogger) are busy counting their billions of dollars, because their site is sure a mess tonight. People can't even post comments. 90% of the reason I do this blog is to read people's comments, so please try again later. I want to hear what you have to say, and others do too!


Lauriston said...

Something going on with Blogger all day - nothing seems to work well. Markets- I have stopped making any bullish case, I think at this point every measure I look at is screaming "overbought", but experience tells me overbought can go on for a long while so I will sit and protect capital and wait like a good trader should. Let the bulls have fun on their own...

investingnewbie said...

I have been away from the blog for a few weeks, but I would appreciate more forex comments. I am starting to look at forex and your insight is incredible! Keep up the good work.

PB said...

the USD/GBP is a nice short. George Soros made his billion shorting from these levels. Even one iota of a rate hike by the FED will crush this pair.

What surprised me about GOOG was it's over $1 billion profit for the quarter.

Nothing to do with technical trading or analysis, but does anyone have any scoop on MSFT's VISTA?

Looking forward to your book Tim!

JakeGint said...

As bullish as most of the market has been, I think tomorrow is do or die for AKAM and AAPL. The slow leak on AAPL (up in the morning, deflating all day) smells like distribution to me and $82.50 is my first target.

Akami is another that looks topped out (at $56 twice now), and ready for a drop. Thanks for the comments, Tim.

mde said...

Aaple is not looking good ove rthe past few days. While the market rallies, the stock can't stay above 85. The island top has trapped so many retail longs that bought the hype before earnings. I am looking at the March 80P for a short term trade.

Ravi said...


I am a new addition to your blog..Tried BDK without much luck! Hope it makes a U turn.

Hats off to you on NTRI. You were truly a Prophet I guess :)


Leisa said...

The only thing more bizarre than the Aqua Teen Hunger Force's ad campaign is the news conference that a couple of the newly bailed and sprung promoters.

I have to say that I'm having unhealthy thoughts about that Frylock fellow.

oscar said...

funny when mrkt turned soft goog and aapl rallied

Tim Knight said...

"The only thing more bizarre than the Aqua Teen Hunger Force's ad campaign is the news conference that a couple of the newly bailed and sprung promoters.

I have to say that I'm having unhealthy thoughts about that Frylock fellow."

....all of which only makes you cooler, Leisa.

Andrew755 said...

I have put on SUncor, OIH and just bought SPY puts at the close. We are at the top of the range....

Suncor missed earnings by 25%...

I will sleep well tonight....