Finally....

Wow, I have never been so late with a blog posting before! I am a day late but, thanks to my NZD/USD trade, far from a dollar short. I've been up since 3 a.m. catching up, and I am at long last going to do the post I wanted to do last night! (Technical Note: Blogger seems to be having major issues recently. I can't view comments, and I imagine none of you have been able to post. The lateness of this post is my fault, but the technical problems are not!)

If you saw the news last night, you should recognize what a scoop I provided with my bizarre BillyWitchDoctor.com post a week or so ago. That clip was from Aqua Teen Hunger Force and - wouldn't you know it? - they were the top story yesterday. No, I'm serious. There was a huge bomb scare in Boston, and it was due to a publicity stunt from our french dry/milk shake/meatball pals. Nice going, Frylock.



OK, back to charts. Today's entry is a little weird because I start pulling charts for it at 4 in the morning and was still doing so just 90 minutes before the close of the market. So this isn't a typical end of day commentary.

Kudos to those of you who took my NTRI suggestion seriously. This was a beautiful chart. It had a lot of good elements.....a major ascending trendline that had been broken.....a clear area of resistance.........a (sloppy) head and shoulders pattern. And it positively fell to pieces subsequent to my suggestion to check it out.


For those who didn't mind the risk, the rewards were handsome. Check out the action on this NTRI put - - up thousands of percent in just a few days!


Bulls in the stock market can take heart from the Transports. It looks like this has broken its clear bearish pattern. And, as I'm typing this, it looks like the market is headed to another solid close higher.


The S&P 500 is at the very, very top of its ascending channel. Any higher, and it's going to break above resistance.


Another cheer-up for the bulls is the MidCap 400. This is about as good a cup with handle pattern as you're ever going to see (my lame rendition of the pattern, in green, notwithstanding).


The Dow 30 seems to be headed for yet another closing higher today (the market's got another hour and a half open as I type this). But it's still below the ascending trendline is broke early last month.


For a bullish play, I like Genentech (DNA). The saucer shape and the volume both look positive.


CNX for a short idea.


Bank of America (BAC) is another good short idea. I closed my puts a couple of days ago at a profit, and it looks like it might be time to re-enter.


Sun Microsystems (SUNW), mentioned a month ago (or so) as a bullish play, is doing well. This is a gigantic saucer - just massive.


No one has commented on my FOREX suggestion (maybe there are only equity players here), but it's been doing amazing things. I've doubled my account balance in just a week based on this one currency.


I had never charted MWP before, but this is another good short idea.


McDonalds (MCD), shown here with Bollinger bands and the RSI, is a pretty safe bearish play.


And Google (GOOG), which announced earnings last night, is doing something really interesting - specifically, it's acting like a normal stock. In the past, whenever they had earnings, there were these massive gaps (highlighted here in green). There was no gap today - - although it's somewhat bearish for GOOG that yet another quarter of blow-out earnings is actually producing a down day (so far) for the stock.


My apologies to any of you wondering what took me so long to do the post. It's been nuts!

Remark on Comments: I think the geniuses at Google (Blogger) are busy counting their billions of dollars, because their site is sure a mess tonight. People can't even post comments. 90% of the reason I do this blog is to read people's comments, so please try again later. I want to hear what you have to say, and others do too!

Bears and Atheism

I think my bear avatar is so cute, I just have to show it again. Particularly since we had some red today.


Before I start with the charts, I'm going to be an idiot and actually mention religion in this blog. Now, let me be clear from the outset - - this isn't about religion per se. It's about a parallel I've noticed. People seem to confuse metaphors with analogies quite a bit. I don't - - and the analogy is this: atheism is to Christianity as bearishness is to bullishness.

Why, Tim, what do you mean? I will try to explain without ticking off too many people.

Christianity in the United States is mainstream. Most people in the country identify with it. It has been the backbone of this country since its founding, and although certainly attendance at Sunday service has been declining for years, by and large it's a stable, popular base.

So is bullishness. By and large, people in America are bulls. They believe in the future. They believe in optimism. The growth of America over the past three centuries in testament to that. Bullishness works. Bullishness makes people rich. Bullishness is the American way.

And here we come to where the weirdos are. Where the freaks live. The atheists. And the bears.

Both atheists and bears are outside the norm. They are, generally speaking, frowned upon. They are not the mainstream, and deep inside the hearts of those who are in the norm is a secret wish that the doubters will be proved Supremely Wrong at some point. In the case of bears, that would mean that It Really Is Different This Time, and markets will go straight up for many years. For atheists, it would mean that Jesus himself shows up on the Today Show to announce his second arrival.

And this is the troubling part for me. See, I'm a good suburban protestant. I know what it feels like to be in the mainstream. Methodists and Presbyterians do OK in the suburban jungle in which I've grown up and thrived.

But recently the atheists have been getting a lot of press. I'm surprised Richard Dawkins didn't make Time's Man of the Year for 2006. Bestselling books such as The God Delusion are selling like mad.

And here's where the parallels click..........Richard Dawkins is smart. Really smart. And it's got to be just a little bit troubling for those who give it a few moments of thought that really brainy, thoughtful, deep-thinking people are atheists. Because it makes you wonder what "side" you really want to be on.

And so it is with the bears. I'll be blunt - - I think bears are a lot smarter than bulls. Bears tend to be the more thoughtful, cerebral sort. Given the ways of the world, it also means that bears tend to be Flat Broke. Just as atheists can rest assured that they will not elect anyone to the White House in the next hundred years at least.

It's frustrating to be a bear, just as I'm sure it must be frustrating being an atheist. Because you watch the mainstream prosper and thrive. And you believe in your heart that they are just dead wrong. And you're the outsider. You're the freak. But it's very tough to convince the crowd when you are so clearly outside of it.

Do I have a conclusion from this? Not really. I simply think it's an interesting parallel. I'm not tempted to jump over to the atheist side any more than I'm tempted to jump to the bullish side. So I live with being a stupid sheep and a brainy bear at the same time. The duality of man!

Are you still reading? Are you still there? Good. Then we'll look at a few charts. Honest to God.......

The market did what I wanted it to do today (for a change), which is push higher, get the bulls excited, and then dash their hopes. Nothing makes my day more than a disappointed bull. The markets were down across the board, particularly in the world of gold and oil. The MidCap 400 did not break above the horizontal line shown here, indicating a possible failed pattern.


The NASDAQ was especially weak today. Here we see the $NDX slipped away from its formerly ascending channel. Ta ta, naz.


The Russell 2000 is also failing its bullish ways. The relative strength continues to weaken and is heading below the 50 mark. I really like the way things are turning around.


And here is the S&P 500, the only stock index on which I own puts right now (and a disturbingly large amount). We see how the RSI pulls farther away from the failed trendline.


The last index is the $XAU, the Gold and Silver index. We have been watching this a while, and this is a closer view than the one I normally provide. There still is no cut-and-dried pattern here, but it is clearly weakening, and I would look for it to fall all the way back to its neckline, at least.


Although oil has already started getting weaker, it might not be took late to get on board FTO, assuming the emerging head and shoulder completes.


Google (GOOG) fell nearly twenty points today. There is absolutely no doubt at all from this chart that the former "$500 now! $600 tomorrow! Go, go, go!" enthusiasm is shot. Google is priced for perfection. This company is far too arrogant to just keep sailing.


HWAY looks like a promising short pattern.


And MEE, mentioned here many times in the past, is behaving as it should.


I've also mentioned TSO, which had a solid down day. Oil's weakness is benefiting many of the items we are watching.


I'll brace myself for the comments section, since I've strayed away from charts. But keep in mind I'm not advocating a religious position here at all. Although I admit to proselytizing the Church of the Bear without shame.