I Am Become Death
Oh, now you know I'm going to have fun writing about today. I can't wait. Come back later on. By about 5 p.m. PST or so.
Update! Folks, I am dying to do today's blog. But it's 6:30 p.m. and I've yet to even look at my first chart! And the comments section looks like a fistfight, which I always enjoy.
Please be patient with me. I don't care if I have to stay up all night, I am going to get this entry done.
But let me save you a little bit of wondering......
(a) Health Affair, no, I didn't "call" this fall, and I never would have claimed I did. Indeed, look at yesterday's post. I talked about how we were at a major crossroads. And how I had trimmed my positions somewhat (index only - - I kept 100% of my puts on equities).
(b) Every single one of my positions - every one - was a put or a short. Now, hurray for me, BUT, I left a HUGE amount of money on the table (to the tune of six figures) by bailing on my shorts half hour into the trading day. So don't ever claim I am saying I am such perfect trader. Good for me for hanging on to my 30 put positions. But SHAME on me for closing out my index options, ALL OF WHICH AT LEAST DOUBLED BY LATER IN THE DAY.
(c) As for tomorrow - - again, I haven't looked at a single chart yet, but my early guess is a quick drop in the first half hour and then a big rally afterwards. Not hundreds of point, but maybe 100. I'll say more once I've look at the aforementioned charts.
Have some coffee and come back later (or wake up early!) for more.....
28 comments:
yes, please tell us how you predicted it: LOL. Lets see, I am looking back to your past entries and see nothing about that, maybe you will tell us you have been short all along on everything and today you got all your money back all back.
I will be interested to see what you say, of course, but as to learning anything, I doubt it, as this selloff took you by surprise along with everyone else, regardless of what you will say tonight.
Please, give some advice on short potentials, and try and keep the I told you so to a min, especially since you have been long a lot in the past couple of months.
Also could you post your number of copies sold since you released it as I hope it is doing well.
amazing day.....
it got me up the ass with my medium term long positions.....
lots of uptrends are broken.....
luckily I entered a DJIA put for protection upon open
still, many uptrends are intact, especially techs.
I'm confused
I've got the popcorn ready and I'm waiting for your post Tim. :-)
I am selling longs and going into cash. This huge decline caught everyone except trader tim.
Are T-Bills and Bonds the play for the next two years?
First thing this morning, I liquidated every call position I had. (ouch!)
Bottom Fishing? (opportunity or fool’s errand?)
Here’s my List
AMGN ASH ASN AZO BBOX BOL BOT BSC CAL CME CSCO DHR EXBD FO GFIG IBM ICF JNJ LVS MBT MSTR MTH SBUX SNDK TXT UPS VIP VZ WYNN + 1000’S MORE.
z-stock
Health Affairs, I have to call you on the post. If you don't like Tim, I think it would be a good thing to move on. I for one got alot out of it. MER COF TXT BSC RIMM were recommended by Tim at the right time. I am up 70% to 80% on the puts and control 1.2 Million in stock because of him. Maybe thanking him would be an idea and show some grace man.
Scott
I haven't been posting much recently, because I'm pretty tired of the absurd pissiness of the comments section recently. I still read because Tim is a sharp short.
Dear "Health Affairs"... Tim has been bearish for about three years now. No, he didn't predict the drop would be today, but his analysis is based upon this happening. Your comment sounds like "hey, screw you, give me some tips." Just stop it. If you don't like the blog, don't read the blog. Leave Tim alone, especially considering you're not paying him anything (so far as I know).
I'll shut up now. Don't know why I even bother really. I still think you ought to screen comments, and allow only questions and analysis, no more whining, no more vituperative bitching.
BTW, being the genius I am, I sold my GOOG puts yesterday. Ugh. Still made some good ground on AMLN.
Most bears here expected a sell-off, and a big one. I think what took mne by surprise was 500pts down on Dow at one point. I was expecting about 200 down followed by 100 on a different day, not 500 on same day, not even 300. So when we got to 350 down I started closing my puts thinking 40% up on VIX was absurd, only to see 100% up on VIX a few minutes later with Dow down 500pts. Yes, that took me by complete surprise. but if you look at what Tim has been writing and warning about, no the market drop was not a surprise, just the magnitude at some points. And even I have written about China maybe on 5-7 different occasions in last 2 months on my blog (all links are there). Somebody even accused bears of being too intelligent! Toall bears, please ignore the nastiness and keep making money, that's what it's all about, and buy long when it's time to do so! Congrats Tim and thanks for a fantastic blog. The book is on the way to me...
Oh yea, please only allow comments that agree with Tim. that would be a HUGE improvement, LOL.
I love Tim. He is very entertaining which I am sure is the real reason of his blog. He really doesn't take himself seriously and if he is a pure technical guy like he claims to be, then I am a rocket scientist.
Tim is no different from every other stock picker out there in that he has far more strikeouts then base hits. A broken clock has been right more times then Tim has been, but then that can be said of any of these people.
In the end, Tim is entertainment. I would hope that people would only make money off anything Tim says, but I am sure that that is not the case. Tim's little site here is not a serious stock blog despite a rare person making money off of any of his "picks".
As for now Tim will go back into pure Bear mode telling us all how he was never anything but a Bear, but as someone who reads his blog everyday, I know that is just not the case.
BTW I really am interested in how the book is doing, please update us Tim if you can.
Tim has this great ability--and it is something that I admire in all people who model this behavior--of taking his work seriously, but not taking himself too seriously.
I'll never understand the motivation of people coming into another's blog and being disrespectful. Does Tim entertain me? Sure. But I also learn alot--even if it positioning for myself why I would NOT want to act on something that he suggests. The very act of considering Tim's suggestions has increased my abilities. I've also posted here from time to time my objections. I've also posted my own thoughts and have asked for feed back (like when I was short the banks in Sep/Oct--do you think I was a wee bit early!? I've always received constructive feedback.
It's a shame that folks bust in all full of pi$$ and vinegar. Much to say (blather), but sadly lacking in content.
Tim is a big boy, he can stand the "pi$$ and vinegar". If you read this blog you would know he is not shy about dressing down everyone in the main blog.
IF YOU DISAGREE With TIM”S PICK , BUY the CALL, That’s what I do.
Z-STOCK
health affairs,
you'll love Beanie. We rock and roll day in and day out.
Thatta boy Tim...nuff said ..i got your book too !!!
Tomthetrader
P.S. After reading your column and being bearish on the OEX since Thanksgiving I bought a OEX weekly just out of the money for a 1000% gain...what a feeling ...those OEX weeklies buying on a Monday are sure fun when the market goes down 500 on Tuesday ..Thanks
Health Affairs...I do read this blog and every blog entry to it daily and have been doing so for several months--but your heads up, though appreciated, is quite unnecessary.
Tim, why don't you take a break (from the stone throwers and even those of us who applaud your efforts) and spend some time with your family. Given today's action and the inter-bourse reconciliation that is likely to follow, the charts (and all of them will be atrocious except for a few) are likely to mean little until the dust settles.
health affairs is full of it.
I don't know how you couldn't see this coming unless you don't watch the markets in a broad enough manner or China (which will be more and more important as the months and years roll by).
Tim
Please unplug your phone, please, please unplug your phone or at least divert all calls you get from Australia to your local pizza shop!! I have a feeling you may get several calls when you post today's entry...
great blog, I wish folks would have the discipline not to publish worthless personal comments
...the SPX may find support at 1390, the low of the day, also happens to be the 3 year upper trend line.. lets see
Shanghai shares stabilize as Asia extends decline..That’s all I got so far.
After Hours CBS Marketwatch list , Most Stocks unchanged to down less than one percent
z-stock
kapow! ICE got at least another 12 point downside! AAPL is a great short even here.
----
Many of people, including myself, believed that the Chinese stock crash was engineered. http://buttonwood1792.blogspot.com/2007/02/understanding-china-market-decline.html
Those who believe such would also have to believe that our own government can engineer a market crash as well. And yes, they would also have to accept that the "Plunge Protection Team" is real.
It's 2:10 in the morning - - I've got some charts started, but I've got my alarm set for 5:30 a.m. to continue and do a post.
I can see globex at the moment has exploded higher. Not a huge surprise there. Even I would say today's sell off was overblown - - especially the hilarious fact that the computers basically were out of synch with the market and when they got in synch, it took the market down 300 points in about 5 seconds.
(Yawn) I've got to get a little shut-eye.....tomorrow is bound to be interesting, guaranteed it.
Last week I got out of my long positions and purchased puts on BSC from one of your postings. 60% in a week is not 1000% in a day like tomthetrader, but it sure made watching the panic on CNBC enjoyable! Who knew being a bear could be so much fun?!
Your book is on the way and I can't wait.
Thanks for the blog.
Vic says: Tim Thanks for the CAL H&S heads up. Made enough to pay for a familly ski trip- to the Alps!
The selling should continue. The lie about computer glitch is still a lie. There's always gonna be computer issues whenever we get a crash. Has always been that way.
Margin selling was the real reason for the collapse of the market yesterday.
Or maybe we're done margin sellin...lol
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