Tuesday, February 27, 2007

I Am Become Death

Oh, now you know I'm going to have fun writing about today. I can't wait. Come back later on. By about 5 p.m. PST or so.


Update! Folks, I am dying to do today's blog. But it's 6:30 p.m. and I've yet to even look at my first chart! And the comments section looks like a fistfight, which I always enjoy.

Please be patient with me. I don't care if I have to stay up all night, I am going to get this entry done.

But let me save you a little bit of wondering......

(a) Health Affair, no, I didn't "call" this fall, and I never would have claimed I did. Indeed, look at yesterday's post. I talked about how we were at a major crossroads. And how I had trimmed my positions somewhat (index only - - I kept 100% of my puts on equities).

(b) Every single one of my positions - every one - was a put or a short. Now, hurray for me, BUT, I left a HUGE amount of money on the table (to the tune of six figures) by bailing on my shorts half hour into the trading day. So don't ever claim I am saying I am such perfect trader. Good for me for hanging on to my 30 put positions. But SHAME on me for closing out my index options, ALL OF WHICH AT LEAST DOUBLED BY LATER IN THE DAY.

(c) As for tomorrow - - again, I haven't looked at a single chart yet, but my early guess is a quick drop in the first half hour and then a big rally afterwards. Not hundreds of point, but maybe 100. I'll say more once I've look at the aforementioned charts.

Have some coffee and come back later (or wake up early!) for more.....

36 comments:

anunakki said...

So great guru ( and I dont mean that sarcastically )

Will tomorrow be a rally/pullback or are we going straight down ?

I covered my shorts end of day today because my gut said the bottom feeders will be swooping in for the next day or so.

But overall it was a great day.. how could it not be ?

Health Affairs said...

yes, please tell us how you predicted it: LOL. Lets see, I am looking back to your past entries and see nothing about that, maybe you will tell us you have been short all along on everything and today you got all your money back all back.

I will be interested to see what you say, of course, but as to learning anything, I doubt it, as this selloff took you by surprise along with everyone else, regardless of what you will say tonight.

Please, give some advice on short potentials, and try and keep the I told you so to a min, especially since you have been long a lot in the past couple of months.

Also could you post your number of copies sold since you released it as I hope it is doing well.

Gustav said...

amazing day.....

it got me up the ass with my medium term long positions.....

lots of uptrends are broken.....

luckily I entered a DJIA put for protection upon open

still, many uptrends are intact, especially techs.

I'm confused

Keith Shepard said...

I've got the popcorn ready and I'm waiting for your post Tim. :-)

mde said...

I am selling longs and going into cash. This huge decline caught everyone except trader tim.

Mysterious Q-Man said...

Are T-Bills and Bonds the play for the next two years?

z-stock said...

First thing this morning, I liquidated every call position I had. (ouch!)

Bottom Fishing? (opportunity or fool’s errand?)

Here’s my List

AMGN ASH ASN AZO BBOX BOL BOT BSC CAL CME CSCO DHR EXBD FO GFIG IBM ICF JNJ LVS MBT MSTR MTH SBUX SNDK TXT UPS VIP VZ WYNN + 1000’S MORE.

z-stock

wattson7 said...

Health Affairs, I have to call you on the post. If you don't like Tim, I think it would be a good thing to move on. I for one got alot out of it. MER COF TXT BSC RIMM were recommended by Tim at the right time. I am up 70% to 80% on the puts and control 1.2 Million in stock because of him. Maybe thanking him would be an idea and show some grace man.

Scott

niko said...

I haven't been posting much recently, because I'm pretty tired of the absurd pissiness of the comments section recently. I still read because Tim is a sharp short.

Dear "Health Affairs"... Tim has been bearish for about three years now. No, he didn't predict the drop would be today, but his analysis is based upon this happening. Your comment sounds like "hey, screw you, give me some tips." Just stop it. If you don't like the blog, don't read the blog. Leave Tim alone, especially considering you're not paying him anything (so far as I know).

I'll shut up now. Don't know why I even bother really. I still think you ought to screen comments, and allow only questions and analysis, no more whining, no more vituperative bitching.

BTW, being the genius I am, I sold my GOOG puts yesterday. Ugh. Still made some good ground on AMLN.

Lauriston said...

Most bears here expected a sell-off, and a big one. I think what took mne by surprise was 500pts down on Dow at one point. I was expecting about 200 down followed by 100 on a different day, not 500 on same day, not even 300. So when we got to 350 down I started closing my puts thinking 40% up on VIX was absurd, only to see 100% up on VIX a few minutes later with Dow down 500pts. Yes, that took me by complete surprise. but if you look at what Tim has been writing and warning about, no the market drop was not a surprise, just the magnitude at some points. And even I have written about China maybe on 5-7 different occasions in last 2 months on my blog (all links are there). Somebody even accused bears of being too intelligent! Toall bears, please ignore the nastiness and keep making money, that's what it's all about, and buy long when it's time to do so! Congrats Tim and thanks for a fantastic blog. The book is on the way to me...

Health Affairs said...

Oh yea, please only allow comments that agree with Tim. that would be a HUGE improvement, LOL.

I love Tim. He is very entertaining which I am sure is the real reason of his blog. He really doesn't take himself seriously and if he is a pure technical guy like he claims to be, then I am a rocket scientist.

Tim is no different from every other stock picker out there in that he has far more strikeouts then base hits. A broken clock has been right more times then Tim has been, but then that can be said of any of these people.

In the end, Tim is entertainment. I would hope that people would only make money off anything Tim says, but I am sure that that is not the case. Tim's little site here is not a serious stock blog despite a rare person making money off of any of his "picks".

As for now Tim will go back into pure Bear mode telling us all how he was never anything but a Bear, but as someone who reads his blog everyday, I know that is just not the case.

BTW I really am interested in how the book is doing, please update us Tim if you can.

Richard Foster said...

My question is is this the start of a huge correction? Will all the amateurs watch the news tonight and enter sell orders? Or will everyone think these are cheap prices? I'll play technical fib breaks on the S&P for now. Thanks for the great blog, Tim, and enjoyed being with you in Orlando.

Richard Foster

Leisa said...

Tim has this great ability--and it is something that I admire in all people who model this behavior--of taking his work seriously, but not taking himself too seriously.

I'll never understand the motivation of people coming into another's blog and being disrespectful. Does Tim entertain me? Sure. But I also learn alot--even if it positioning for myself why I would NOT want to act on something that he suggests. The very act of considering Tim's suggestions has increased my abilities. I've also posted here from time to time my objections. I've also posted my own thoughts and have asked for feed back (like when I was short the banks in Sep/Oct--do you think I was a wee bit early!? I've always received constructive feedback.

It's a shame that folks bust in all full of pi$$ and vinegar. Much to say (blather), but sadly lacking in content.

Health Affairs said...

Tim is a big boy, he can stand the "pi$$ and vinegar". If you read this blog you would know he is not shy about dressing down everyone in the main blog.

z-stock said...

IF YOU DISAGREE With TIM”S PICK , BUY the CALL, That’s what I do.
Z-STOCK

Shawn M. said...

I bought 50% of my IRA in MER puts in DEC based on my TA and Tim's analysis. I was sweating it out around earnings time with a 50% loss before it turned around in the last couple weeks. As of today I am up 33% on the trade. Will be trailing the gains to lock them in. Keep up the good work Tim. Only liars and monday morning traders get it right all the time.

Humble1 said...

Actually Tim did very well on his picks. Only 2 out of 14 that I followed got stopped out [EXC and CNX] both would have been Ok to rentenr again and made nice money, more than offsetting the small loss.

According to my work, there are about as many stocks moving up as moving down using weekly momentum as a guide. If you study history, many stocks will start downtrends long beofre the market indices do.

Thanks Tim. I still don't see a top, but what the heck.

http://kreslik.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=452&start=45

beanie11111 said...

health affairs,

you'll love Beanie. We rock and roll day in and day out.

tomthetrader said...

Thatta boy Tim...nuff said ..i got your book too !!!

Tomthetrader

tomthetrader said...

P.S. After reading your column and being bearish on the OEX since Thanksgiving I bought a OEX weekly just out of the money for a 1000% gain...what a feeling ...those OEX weeklies buying on a Monday are sure fun when the market goes down 500 on Tuesday ..Thanks

Sanjay Sola said...

Congrats Tim. I hope you made a killing today
the bears wiped 3 months of gains in 1 day. thanks for the blog. the charts are great.

Leisa said...

Health Affairs...I do read this blog and every blog entry to it daily and have been doing so for several months--but your heads up, though appreciated, is quite unnecessary.

Leisa said...

Tim, why don't you take a break (from the stone throwers and even those of us who applaud your efforts) and spend some time with your family. Given today's action and the inter-bourse reconciliation that is likely to follow, the charts (and all of them will be atrocious except for a few) are likely to mean little until the dust settles.

PB said...

Today was pure and utter MURDER!!!

However, I do feel that complacency has not completely been washed out of the sytem. I think we will still see some new highs on the Dow in the next few months ... as for tomorrow, capitulation followed by buying in the aft. We are back to early Novemeber on the majors, about the time that they started diverging from their indicators.

Let's see if the bulls can ever muster 400+ points!

Tommy said...

health affairs is full of it.

I don't know how you couldn't see this coming unless you don't watch the markets in a broad enough manner or China (which will be more and more important as the months and years roll by).

Lauriston said...

Tim

Please unplug your phone, please, please unplug your phone or at least divert all calls you get from Australia to your local pizza shop!! I have a feeling you may get several calls when you post today's entry...

charttrader said...

great blog, I wish folks would have the discipline not to publish worthless personal comments

...the SPX may find support at 1390, the low of the day, also happens to be the 3 year upper trend line.. lets see

z-stock said...

Shanghai shares stabilize as Asia extends decline..That’s all I got so far.

After Hours CBS Marketwatch list , Most Stocks unchanged to down less than one percent

z-stock

trader said...

A "COMMENT" section is just that.A section for "COMMENTS".That means the good,the bad & the ugly.
What do you say Tim,....10700 by Friday's close ?

beanie11111 said...

kapow! ICE got at least another 12 point downside! AAPL is a great short even here.

----


Many of people, including myself, believed that the Chinese stock crash was engineered. http://buttonwood1792.blogspot.com/2007/02/understanding-china-market-decline.html

Those who believe such would also have to believe that our own government can engineer a market crash as well. And yes, they would also have to accept that the "Plunge Protection Team" is real.

Tim Knight said...

It's 2:10 in the morning - - I've got some charts started, but I've got my alarm set for 5:30 a.m. to continue and do a post.

I can see globex at the moment has exploded higher. Not a huge surprise there. Even I would say today's sell off was overblown - - especially the hilarious fact that the computers basically were out of synch with the market and when they got in synch, it took the market down 300 points in about 5 seconds.

(Yawn) I've got to get a little shut-eye.....tomorrow is bound to be interesting, guaranteed it.

ninextim said...

Last week I got out of my long positions and purchased puts on BSC from one of your postings. 60% in a week is not 1000% in a day like tomthetrader, but it sure made watching the panic on CNBC enjoyable! Who knew being a bear could be so much fun?!
Your book is on the way and I can't wait.

Thanks for the blog.

j_vperez29 said...

Vic says: Tim Thanks for the CAL H&S heads up. Made enough to pay for a familly ski trip- to the Alps!

beanie11111 said...

The selling should continue. The lie about computer glitch is still a lie. There's always gonna be computer issues whenever we get a crash. Has always been that way.

Margin selling was the real reason for the collapse of the market yesterday.

beanie11111 said...

Or maybe we're done margin sellin...lol

Shawn M. said...

Regarding the "computer glitch", it almost appears as if only the bid ask were being manipulated in the 10 to 15 mins prior to the drop, with all bids coming through and the asks volume being "held" back, as if to attempt to manufacture a rally. When the ask volume was reentered into the market, the bottom dropped out.