Monday, February 05, 2007

Charts - What Else?

The Dow was up a whopping .07% today, so it wasn't exactly a barnburner of a day on the market. But there's always a few charts to look at, right?

Anderson (ANDE), one of the few bullish charts I've been posting lately, continues to inch toward its potential breakout point (the horizontal line I've drawn).

I'm seeing a lot of big oil stocks shaping up as potential shorts; BHI looks particularly good.

EMC has been in a trading range for literally years. It seems to be at the upper end of it. This makes for a relatively low-risk bearish play.

I've been mentioning SHLD for quite a while, but I've got to hand it to the bulls, this has pushed above resistance. It's a really sharp looking cup with handle pattern. The big bursts of volume have definitely been dying down (see trendline on the volume chart), but that isn't particularly significant.

I was (very profitably) short the NZD/USD, and now I'm in a contratrend position - - I'm long for the moment, but definitely not for the long haul. Nothing ever goes straight down, and this fell so quickly and sharply I am looking for a very modest rise before re-entering the short.

I have no position on NutriSystem (NTRI), but I'm presenting this graph simply as a suggestion that it might be OK for a short-term bullish play. It may recover back to its neckline (where it fell to pieces in a matter of 3 days). This is a relatively high risk trade, however. Plenty of stocks that are "broken" like this really never recover.

I don't know what MSFT is doing (although my puts on it happily rose). Maybe Vista is getting a "so what?" from enough places that expectations are dying down. I, for one, have no reason to upgrade.

Google (GOOG) keeps heading lower. The problem with puts on this (which I own) is that there is so much volatility built into them that even after losing 30 points, the puts are only up a little.


Lauriston said...

I really like the oil stocks too for a short play. I have no position yet, been watching ever since that drop in Dec/Jan, waiting to "short the rallies". i'll wait for the daily lows to be broken so I can jump in on institutional selling. Cold spell is being bandied about CNBC so much it's hilarious.

fastermasterblaster said...


Your BHI short rec, I'm not so sure about it. I see this OIH sector (SLB, HAL, BJS, etc) as a 5 yr cup n handle pattern. (Tell me if you are seeing otherwise).

BHI is IMO a laggard ... but I chart SLB in an uptrend for the near term (I am long that stock).

This sector has been forming a flat base for a year and '06 earnings growth was very positive for the sector. I expect they will move up (pivot point)rather than down.

I'm not trying to pump this sector, just giving my honest sentiment at this time.

z-stock said...

Is this illegal naked short selling?
Nfi at $19! . I guess Naked short sellers are back. I bought the (most delta possible) mar 15 call 4.10/4.50 sell 7.00 =20 day. little downside risk, considering NFI’s dividend yield is usually 11%-14%. Today’s price makes NFI a 25% yielding dividend.
Tim, How about revisiting MLM. You’re short sell recommendation might work this time.

evenflo269 said...

this site is not near as fun without the anon posters. let them speak.

Ravi said...

I sold NZD futures today. Its amazing how these instruments work. I have been wanting to trade forex futures for quite sometime but was not sure how. Thanks to you Tim, i got some courage.

Separately, I am long CAD futures which have profitable so far.

Power of charting - all markets are same, whether currency or cow dung :)

With all regards,