Tuesday, February 13, 2007

Crazy Train

Time for a shameless plug. My book is rolling off the press right now. You can click here to go to Amazon if you'd like to pre-order a copy. I paid my way through college writing computer books, but it's been a very long time since I've had the thrill of seeing something I've written in a book store. I hope people enjoy reading it as much as I enjoyed writing it.

I've drawn a channel representing the NASDAQ 100 (which, in spite of a really strong general market today, is relatively weak). As you can see, we remain very much at the high end of this channel.

I've pointed out the huge divergence between the major indexes and their RSI. This holds true for $OEX as well.

Tomorrow is going to be really important. If we fall tomorrow, today may have been nothing more than a retracement. If we push higher, than we're probably looking at the umpteenth time that the bears have had a little hope injected into their system only to have it ripped away. Today's rise can be explained away. Any more rise could not - - we'd have to concede to the bulls yet again.

Capital One (COF) is still a possibility, even though it's holding up far longer than I ever expected.

John Deere (DE) remains at the high end of its channel, and it actually fell a bit today, in spite of a very strong Dow.

HealthNet (HNT) is approaching both its former high as well as the upper range of an upward-sloping trendline.

Interactive Data (IDC) has a rather toppy looking pattern and is worth a look.

Like I said, tomorrow is key. It was a very tough day for the bears today. Let's see if hope gets yanked away or is allowed to linger just a bit more.


Sanjay Sola said...

congratulations on your book! that's a great achievement.

Louis said...

I forgot which stock it was, but maybe out of one of your put pick, I saw short interest of 25 wopping days( biggest I've ever seen). It is often said large short interest actually work as a strong floor because of all the short covering stops. What is your take on this????

onewaystox said...

so...that's the title you're going with?

(kidding. Thanks for your blog.)

Louis said...

Amazon doesn't let me read excerpts of your book...yet.
Would it be available later???
I ordered one anyway...
I bet you that Ausie Hermie ordered one too.

p.s. Is there anyway you can link and post that phone message?? It is rare, one gets such marvelous entertainment!

Lauriston said...

I am a bear, but now I am in a funk. This "buying the dip" is hurting my soul. I think I feel like that Aussie mate now, and you are not the fault Tim. Anyway congrats on your book. I saw this rally coming yesterday and even wrote about it yesterday but didn't jump on board. Well, next time I won't hesitate...can't believe bulls have such guts. Anyone have the bulls' phone numbers??

mde said...

Congratulations on your new book and maybe the bears will return tomorrow after Bernanke speaks.

Just Testing said...

Tim, I preordered you book. Can't wait to learn more from the master.

Leisa said...

An Ouchie day for DE shorts.

beanie11111 said...

It certainly appears that shorts have nowhere to hide today. But not to worry, we near a top right now right here. Short away!

beanie11111 said...

May i interest you in some ICE puts?


stockshaker said...

This bounce was inevitable. Take a look at short term (1-2day technicals), we were oversold.

But now you have a three factors that I believe will help out the bears. Overbought on the short and long term, and a gap that needs to be filled.

I'm watching the DOW, and I see a break above resistance, which I'm sure is disheartening to many bears. However, your naz is still stuck in sideways.

But RULE NUMBER ONE for all technical traders: wait for confirmation.

And its still quite early in the trading day.

http://www.stockshaker.com - we're up and running baby!

beanie11111 said...

NYX has bottomed short term

beanie11111 said...

Here is a gift for ya:

short NVDA! This pos is going down hard tomorrow.


wattson7 said...

Tim, I took a hit on my puts I bought for april and june today. They were COF, COG, MER, MSTR, RIMM, TXT. could you revisit the charts and advise. Thanks in advance.

z-stock said...

Txt eps trending down, triple top put signal, ( too scary for me, at this time) because going forward txt has an extra 16% eps growth, which can be added to the stock price at any time. $88+16%=102.8 target or higher.. rsi 61 ( weak put signal)

Mstr=Xli , sort of. I raised my Mstr put target 130 /136. (out of fear)

Hnt 3% drop / then double top / then 6% drop? .. 54.11 ’05 hi + rsi 85 ( strong! Put signal) ( I like it).
Health Net = Senior Advantage / Secure Horizons

Cof / looks like it’s down trending. Favors the bears.

I bought Ande march 35 calls. I think the worst that can happen, is it goes down to $38 and then double tops. Avr peix mgpi and vse sort of influenced my decision. Bg mon adm pot are my other ethanol stocks. Congress sure likes to subsidize ethanol.

beanie11111 said...

Massive timber at NVDA!!!