Wednesday, February 14, 2007

St. Valentine's Day Massacre

As proof not only of God, but a cruel God, I found myself driving behind the following license plate this morning:


That's right. Go Dow. Bring me the head of Ben Bernanke!

I am understandably in no mood to look at charts right now. But at least I can remind everyone that I have been very suspicious of the short-lived breakdown in prices. Doing this blog this long has taught me to put plenty of asterisks next to my ruminations, and as I've said repeatedly, a breakdown hasn't happened. And until it does, the bulls own this market. Every tiny dip in prices during this godawful rally has been just a few quick days of bearishness, only to be whisked away into the land of new highs......


The strength of the Transports only confirms this belief. This is a new lifetime high for the Transports, and even the most bearish bear has to admit that the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports hitting new, never-before-seen highs on the same day is outright bullish for U.S. stocks.

18 comments:

Lauriston said...

There is a time for bulls, and a time for bears will come. Record low volatility indexes (almost all of them) and low put call ratios has never failed to call for a pullback or correction. For now, I have to graciously say "Happy Valentines Bulls!"

acceltrader said...

Funny how the GO DOW plate on car in front of you was on a DCX vehicle. Cutting 13k jobs- great news, stock ramps, party on etc.

p.s.- I drive the same car and I've been in the bear camp....

Tim Knight said...

You should have seen me chasing the car down, trying to find a stoplight where the sun wasn't blasting me in the eye; I really wanted to get a good shot of this plate!

wincity said...

Tim, that's a great anecdote. Could be a good picture to laugh at a few months later. It's always the darkest before dawn. CSX went up almost 8% today. Hard to think this could last.

z-stock said...

Tim,
I saw SINGLE DIGIT Vix, briefly for about 10 minutes. (9.94) so I of course had to buy me some of that.
What’s the worst that could happen.
Vix at 5,4,3,2,1, GOOOOO BULLLLS !!!! %$^&(*/*)

z-stock

Good luck on the book and happy 402nd post.

Ernest said...

I really love this blog. Your comments and analysis, I really do enjoy. It truly is amazing how this market just keeps on keepin on. Kinda like the eveready battery. The bears time will come but until then put on a bull face and play em like you seem em.

Erndog

Leisa said...

Toshi--Chasing down cars?! You and Lisa Nowak (the astronaut who donned adult diapers and went on a 700 mile or so journey)have something in common.

Here's the one thing I'm interested in (outside of waiting eagerly for another viewing of Frylock) is whether or not we get resolution of the fabled 4yr cycle low. I do not think that last year was it. If it were, then it was a girly-man low, for the the S&P and Dow did not plumb the depths as the Nasdaq. I don't post to argue, for I freely admit that I do not know. I'm just interested, and I'm watching. I'm not chasing anything--not like you and not like that astronaut. Just watching.

mde said...

That license plate may be the final sign us bears needed for this market rally to turn in our favor. When people start putting GO DOW on their license plates it is time to take some money off the table.

PB said...

And now the DOW transports matter?
Last time they both set a simultaneous high was March 17/1998.

I am having trouble coming to grips with this market. It goes up, fine, but to not even have some decent down days is really frustrating. What I miss I guess is the volatility. It's a painful creep higher. I hav ta fight for every frikkin' point!

So, it looks like all is right with the world, I'll just load up on stocks. But as I write that, I am loading my pants with crap, as I can not bring myself to buy into this market. Maybe at DOW 13,500 I'll be convinced!

Are there any bearz still alive?

P.S. Looking forward to your book Tim!

wincity said...

I'm still alive. And well. But I only hunt the crazy and the weak.

z-stock said...

I found this list in the back seat of the car Tim was chasing.

It said, “Here’s a list of potential bear targets”.

ABX AH ASD CI FDX GDX GMR GSK GTRC HNT IYT LSTR NAT NOV OSG PCU TIE TK TRN TSO VLO

The entire above mess ‘all’ look toppy.
z-stock.

Health Affairs said...

z-stock, LOL good one :)

Humble1 said...

it is no surprise to see mania at this stage of the game.

http://img67.imageshack.us/img67/1897/spxmonthlyxk0.gif

d333gs said...

Looking at the StockCharts closest version of the T2108, the $NYA50R……..Gee Wiz isn’t the clock just ticking here or are we in for another repeate of the last exteneded season after the 4year cycle from 03 to mid 04 where there seemed to be no correction?

Tim Knight said...

"Toshi--Chasing down cars?! You and Lisa Nowak (the astronaut who donned adult diapers and went on a 700 mile or so journey)have something in common."

I was wearing diapers for a totally different reason......to contain my reaction to yesterday's market activity.

Brigitte said...

Good short call on BHI, profiled Feb 5. Would have made a bunch today!
Also, I think that as you shamelessly plug your book, you should consider giving away a few copies to readers of your blog! Have some sort of fun contest, or just make it a random pick of people that reply, or something on those lines. I know that I would love a copy. Any hey, I'm local too!
BCE

PB said...

What's the point of this market if all it does is go up?

Just buy and multiply!

Only bulls make money. Bearz and pigs both get slaughtered!

Calex said...

Great blog, Tim. I read it frequently. One comment regarding the transports: although $TRAN is at record highs, it is lagging $INDU.

The entire bull push from mid-2006 has occured on weak transport relative price strength against industrials. This is tentatively bearish for the broad equity market.

See the following chart to view the ratio:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1514434&cmd=show[s98430344]&disp=P