Friday, February 16, 2007

I'm Goin' to Disneyworld!

As a counterpoint to God's divine message to me earlier this week, Satan himself appeared to me via the wrapper of my bread this morning. I feel I am at the vortex of a holy war. Get thee behind me, buttered toast!


On a more secular note, I received my first shipment of my book this morning at the office. Joy and rapture! It's been a very long time since I've held a book that I wrote.


This was a strong week for the bulls - particularly Wednesday - the bears can only hold on to the sliver of hope that upward momentum is still waning. That's not a heck of a lot to hang your hat on, though.


Gold and Silver Index ($XAU) is in a bit of a stuck pattern. Shorting this with a stop at $145 might be a good play (via going long puts).


Crude oil to me seems to be in a solid bearish pattern. If you believe this, there are all kinds of ways to take advantage of it (such as OIH, XOM, RIG......)


I've gotten flack for my bullish suggestion of ANDE, but this still seems like a clean pattern to me.


My NVDA puts picked up a bit of steam today.


I've got to hand it to the SHLD bulls - this is a dynamite looking chart. Who would have ever thought Sears, of all things, would be a superstar?


I'm going to be in Orlando for a few days for my employer's mega-event. I'll be speaking a few times. Come up and say hello. Assassins - - aim for my head!

34 comments:

Des said...

Tim,

Congratulations on the book and watch out for low-flying boomerangs in Orlando.

Leisa said...

Toshi, Toshi, Toshi Tim
wrote a book; fulfilled a whim
Chased down a plate, Whose(1) message clear
Destroyed his dream of triumphant bear.

He then resigned to his fate as a fella
consigned to Hell of eating Nutella...
with Satanic bread on the side, and bulls gouging his backsides.
----------------
I know that Shakespeare is rolling over! Congrats on book!

If you do not recognize the verse form it is ancient Persian quatrain with a western infidel refrain.


(1) capitalized because it is a Divine message.

z-stock said...

Xle Iyt Icf all out of steam. Iyr Oih,Xau. As well
Iwm failing to reach 82 target
Mortgage stocks lost all their value, they’ll have to slash dividends.
Houses aren’t selling and remain bank owned or empty.
All the X-mas gift cards are spent.
Dfx fo’ getta ‘bout it. Tech rally failed to materialize.
Xlf, descending Rsi. Water and utility stocks being dragged down by their own weight.
Steel stocks are way over priced.
Xlb finally showing some weakness.
If health Insurance stocks get any higher, they’ll break the chart.
Gambling stocks tanked. Earning season winding down.
Crude heading to $40 by years end.

The seemingly relentless domination of the bulls can finally be called into question.
z-stock

Pravin said...

interesting article

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/droke/2007/0216.html

Mhashe said...

SHLD has a very nice CANSLIM'ian Cup n' Handle. A simple price projection takes it to mid 200's.

beanie11111 said...

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/droke/2007/0216.html

"Permbears" shouldn't trade or invest in the markets. They are in general illogical people who keep on fighting the trend. The stock market is up MORE often than down. Herb Greenberg is, in my opinion, the most logical permabear there is because at least he has the sense not to trade or invest in the markets.

z-stock said...

To respond.
interesting article

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/droke/2007/0216.html


Trust me, there are no perma bears up here. Just some god awful smart people. In fact, why don’t you take all of Tim’s Feb 15 suggestions and ( shove, I mean) paper trade them. There’s a possible 1000% or greater return in this particular batch.


z-stock

beanie11111 said...

Why so sensitive? lol

Just making an observation and opinion based on the article.

Tim Knight said...

Fellas, honestly, I admit I've got a lot of permabear in me - - and after the past 8 months, I am starting to feel like the national chairman of the Lyndon LaRouche for President campaign.

Our time will come, but I'm just hoping we haven't colonized Mars by the time it does. Bullishness is absolutely rampant in this world right now. Just look at the poor middle class saps in China throwing their money into their NASDAQ 3/2000 style market.

Jeff said...

First one needs to understand that stock markets are inherently bullish. If humans aren't motivated to invest (buy) there wouldn't be a market. Second, money needs a place to live and there's alot of it looking right now. As a money manager do I want to be in real estate or treasuries today?

My bias is the short side, but there's only one side to the market and that's the right side. Watching people fail to see the error of their ways is painful. Even more painful is the fact that these failed geniuses seek profit through other means like teaching seminars, writing blogs, or unbeleivably publishing a book.

z-stock said...

Remark # 1

“The relentless domination of the bulls”. Is referring to this short term time period only. Next 21 days, I expect a correction. Not just a 2% correction, but a test of the 50 day and lower. In the current market conditions, that’s really sticking my neck out. (or is it?)


Remark #2

I was mad at the article, not the people, Maybe a little at Pravin. I’ve read that type of article a 100 times, It’s a complete waste of time, because there are no stock specific suggestions with which one can hang his hat on. I call them pop-ups for short. My worst fear is that with all the negative publicity, everyone is curious and going to the site, anyway.

Remark #3

I’ve actually paper traded Tim’s suggestions over the past 5 month’s. With proper stops in place, the account is way up. (I guess that’s a failed genius.) Now the question is, will Jeff rescind his second paragraph?


z-stock

trader said...

Whether you like or hate Bush, he did make one really brilliant move.That was to get Paulson in as Treasury Secretary.He ran the #1 investment banking firm,Goldman Sachs like Tiger Woods tees off.The revenue from the deals he put together over there are still coming in.He is helping keep the money not only coming in,BUT STAYING in these mutual and pension funds.And I hear he has offered incentives to major corporations to buy back there stock.In other words ,no one is selling . They are either buying,rotating, or holding.As long as Paulson is in there.No Selling .No correction.But 99% of the mutual holding public will take this kind of "stock manipulation" forever if they can get it.Paulson still has 80% of his net worth(about600M) in GS stock too,so for that reason alone don't look for a big correction in that until he's out of his current position with the Treasury.Bush legacy,regardless of the Iraq war will be intact if these boys can keep the market going up through the end of his term. I think those two (Bush/Paulson) have the power to do that with passive Bernanke.So there it is in a nutshell.Believe it or not .

trader said...

Oh and Z-Stock,we'll read what you have to say, and you need to let anyone else who says something you disagree with alone and not let it ruffle your feathers.

Tim Knight said...

Jeff,

I think it's really improper to diss a book you haven't even seen. Hell, I just got my first copy.

The book is mostly about how to use ProphetCharts - - as well as a pretty solid introduction to technical analysis.

Unlike this blog, it has nothing to do with real time trading suggestions. So maybe you can cut me some slack, huh?

- Tim

Leisa said...

If Jim Cramer's frequent refrain (though I'm by no means touting his investment philosophy) is "There is always a bull market somewhere", then it stands to reason that there must be a corollary "There is always a bear market somewhere" must be true. (Though I make no claims to be an expert in logic or anything else).

I think that an important part of being a successful market participant is being keenly tuned to one's natural dispositions. Despite the market's upward bias, it also undergoes an continual ebb and flow out and into particular sectors. Accordingly, it seems to me that Tim (not trying to defend him, as how can one legitimately defend someone who follows vehicles and gets Satanic messages from one's bread, but I digress)is well attuned to his natural proclivities.

Clearly Tim has experienced quite a bit of success (heck, he doesn't even need the stock market, he built and sold a company), so it seems to me that folks that try to tell Tim how to trade are just as likely to have sauntered up to Van Gogh or Picasso and hand them a tip or two.

beanie11111 said...

leisa,

In a general bear market that corollary is true, and in a sideways market the corollary may be true, but in a bull market that lifts most boats it is difficult to find a "bear market somewhere". And because stocks rise more often historically than it falls (ie, it is a historical fact that we are more often in a bull market than a bear market) to be in a position of the permabear makes absolutely no sense, yet some of the brightest minds like Doug Kass, Barry Ritholtz and the other two in the article are essentially permabears.

I think Jeff is being a bit harsh if he's slammin Tim, who's merely a chartist with a (chronic?) bearish slant to him.

I think people like Doug Kass and Barry Ritholtz are pure permabears who give bears a bad name. lol. They're highly educated, they're smart and knowledgeable, they're great commentators and they're always on CNBC. Yet, they've been so embarressingly wrong for so long that i don't know why CNBC still have them around. Barry called for the Dow to hit 6000 last year and scared the hell out of everyone. Boy, was he wronger than Mr. Wrong. Compared to Barry, i'm just an average schmuck but even i can't be that off. Permabears tend to make these kinds of egregious mistakes, and they make them over and over again by default, because they keep on going against the bulls that are historically more right than the bears. Even permabulls are more often right then permabears!!!!!

Jeff said...

Tim,

Fair enough..and yes I'll be reading and paying for a copy of your book. I think the wisdom in your charting is the simplicity you employ.

What I can't seem to understand is that conventional wisdom agrees that we are achieving daily record highs on the DOW and other indices. The DOW hit it's record back in Jan 2000, but today that milestone should more accurately incorporate the natural forces of inflation. Depending on the data used, I've seen an inflation-adjusted range of 13,400-14,085 for the DOW.

Without this adjustment it's like saying that I'm better of today cause my salary has increased 10% since 2000, but in reality my real buying power has decreased significantly (trust me I'm living Miami's real estate bubble).

There are times when charting works well (basing markets) and there are times when fundamental macroeconomic forces rule the day. Stable interest rates, weak dollar, a gazillion hedge funds, and most importantly an oversupply of money in today's global market are some of the forces in play now.

IMO, It'll be clear as day when the time to short is the right side.

Personally I think recommeding GS as a short candidate is insanity. They make the rules.

PS. I respect the fact you didn't decide to delete my post. An open mind is crucial to successful trading.

Jeff said...

In lieu of my above rant there are shorts to play in this market. Last week's trades included KNOT(avg. $30.93, see traffic stats), CTRP(two-day short based on volume), SNDK(Mar 40 puts), NVDA(exaggerated Vista demand but short term), HANS(GS and JP buy list removal hits demand), and UAUA(crude is averaged at $53 on the books).

GRMN(great #s, excessive shorts) and CHK($30 break on vol) look like nice longs.

and yes ANDE has yet to break Oct trendline, but CC seemed uneventful.

beanie11111 said...

AAPL gettin really close to being slammed hard into the abyss!!!!!!!!!!!!

Tim Knight said...

Jeff,

Ever since I turned off anonymous posters, I don't delete any posts, with one exception - - there have been a handful of times someone has posted an anti-semitic remark with absolutely no content. I thought it was so pointless, I simply deleted it. But I certainly wouldn't delete a post for slamming me. Since we are in "registered users only" mode, I think everyone is entitled to express their opinions, as long as they have at least a little bit of value.

I would also say, in my defense, that as the bull market has soared higher, I've become progressively more respectful of it and modest in my assertions. Even an idiot like me can recognize that repeated new highs of all the Dow indexes has meaning.

I can only be grateful in enjoying the bull market insofar as I am the delighted owner of my employer's stock!

PB said...

Yes, the meaning is that people are basically have the herd mentality and do not really know the true value of things. If companies are so profitable and flsuh with cash, why don't they pay a higher dividend? Where is shareholder value in all of this? Historically, dividends have accounted for about half of the returns from the stock market. The only way we'll get respectable yields will be from lower stock prices. But the mania is on. Just witness the poor souls in China buying up every IPO.

Just one question to all of the bears (which I am one)

If the market did drop what would you do?

Buy?

PB said...

Where do you buy your bread Tim?

EddieFl said...

Three things:

1. The market can stay irrational a lot longer that you can stay liquid. (unless your Bill Gates).

2. Congrats on your book Tim, I know it is one of but many sucesses you have had. Keep up the great work.

3. Jeef in Miami, grab yourself a quart of Old English and go down to Liberty City on a saturday night and talk some smack down there.. haha, Why do I get the feeling you will mind your manners then.. Your bitching a complaining over an electronic bulletin board, get real will ya..


Eddiefl

Tim Knight said...

My bread was purchased at Beelzebub's Bakery. I've never had a problem with them until now.

wincity said...

Tim,

Don't worry about the triple 6. In Chinese, the number 6 stands for trouble-free. Triple 6 means super trouble-free.

May the year of the pig bring abundance of fruits to the bears.

z-stock said...

I’ve certainly learned a lesson on posting to blogs.
Don’t bash anybody.
I started a ruckus with Jeff, yesterday. Goodness, goodness, today this whole thing has gotten out of hand.
Now I feel bad for Jeff.
Trader is the wisest of all.
He said “Leave people alone.”


z-stock


Jeff, never you mind, these Jonah days. There’s always another bend in the road.

Chris said...

SHLD is not a retail stock anymore its a hedge fund. i read the 10k-Q and most of the earnings come from derivatives !

trader said...

You are correct Chris.Coats and hammers are only half the story. If that.

beanie11111 said...

ICE is the most gorgeous buy on the face of the earth!!!!!

booyah!!!

162

beanie11111 said...

Long NYX and long ICE!!! No time left. lol

beanie11111 said...

ICE is the most powerful stock on the planet. If ya believe in this bull market, then buy ICE!!!

ICE is the best freakin buy today. See ya at $200 soon, then $300 only a shoulder away.

beanie11111 said...

Just curious.. Wasn't 1987 and 1997 merger mania years? Kinda like this year? What happened october 1987 and october 1997? hmmmmmm... lol

trader said...

Hank Paulson made about 40 million bucks(GS) today.Don't bet against this dude.Every time the shorts are given a little rope of hope,there's a hangin'!

z-stock said...

Attention K-Bear shoppers. (SHLD) We got stuck in a black hole, and now I don’t know what planet we’re on.

z-stock

All calls are not created eQual. I got whacked on BPT. But, now I’m back in. BPT Target, yesterday’s price.