Wednesday, September 20, 2006

Slippery Oil

For a Fed day, it was relatively peaceful. The bulls got virtually all their gains within the first half hour of trading today. Sigh. Oil saved my bacon again, though. It would have been a rotten day otherwise.

The highlighted area indicates the Fed zaniness. Usually the market goes stark raving mad after an announcement. This swing was actually really modest. I guess the lack of volatility has extended even to the most extreme of events. It was a snoozer, pretty much.


As I mentioned, oil (OIH in particular) continues to go great. We've got an honest to goodness breakdown, with a beautiful head and shoulders pattern, post-retracement, at this point. This is textbook perfect.


The gold and silver index, $XAU, seems a bit stuck at its retracement level. It is even more of a huge head and shoulders pattern than OIH, but it hasn't broken down yet.


The S&P had another strong day. Indeed, it's been disgustingly strong since mid-July. We haven't seen this much consistent strength since last autumn. We're either at a double top or - - with our luck lately - - we've got plenty of room left (green shaded area) on the upside. Oh, I'll mention this a hundredth time for those who missed it - - click on any image to see a bigger image.


The Russell 2000, on a long-term basis, is obviously far, far above its "Internet bubble" highs. It broke those long ago.


At this point, if it breaks through the horizontal line shown at 742.26, we're in even bigger trouble than we are already. That would be extremely bullish.


One stock I happened to come across today is CAL (Continental Airlines). Looks like another nice short/put-buying opportunity with a pretty low-risk stop price.


Things still haven't turned to the bear's favor. Not at all. I'm glad for OIH, at least. That, and a lot of related stocks, have been doing wonderfully poorly (which is good for the bears).

53 comments:

Anonymous said...

To me, it seems the S&P is whistling past the graveyard, on the way to the pub! :)

Jim

Anonymous said...

another up day.

Bought QID at 62 on Friday and had the chance to sell it at 64 but didnt take it now im holding it at a slight loss. F$%K F@#K F&^K.....

Market will most likely touch new highs without a problem, where it goes from there is anyones guess.

Everyone says everything is fine.

60 oil
inflation in check
housing having a soft landing etc.

Im long a few etfs and im sure now were headed down!!!!

Trader 2006.

stockshaker said...

I'll be honest with you, I have no idea what is going on. I do konw one thing, you cannot deny it, the bull market is very much in tact. I don't care about inflation, housing busting open, FED this, FED that, economic slowdown, "recession", job loss, pension cuts, option screwups, IPOD's taking over the world - who gives a rat's a$$. Today, its a bull, and until some price pattern is broken, tomorrow is a bull too.

Sometimes, it makes more sense to turn off all news outlets, and live in a cave, equipt with a prophet chart and access to a trading account. Because that way you remove all bias you have in trading. I mean, it is EASY for me to look back to mid july and say, YES, the worst is over, but how many of us were blindsided by the FED?

I sure as hell was! And Im sure as hell half of you out there were as well!

All I DO KNOW is that Im waiting for a pullback, before I jump on the LONG bandwagon. QQQQ's, have undoubtedly broke their 40 resistance level. There is no way in hell im going to invest at this level - every technical indicator is showing this stock, along wtih the rest of the market is completely overbought. And the way things are unfolding, its almost easy to see that a pullback is all but certain in the near future (did you see the bearish engulfing's, spinning tops, dojis, on SO MANY GRAPHS???)

If anyone was looking at my stock picks, half of them are just account blazers - FTO and PD are lighting it up. Thank gawd for a fall in oil. PD actually looks like its breaking a nice price channel that has been intact since March. FTO is basically done, the major move all ready took place. Sorry to tell you that.

TS and NUE, on the other hand are driving me nuts! sideways action is enough to drive any trader mad.

So, if you like any of those, they are still prime for something to happen. they are getting close to their APEX in the triangle formation, and so im thinking SOMETHING will happen soon (please).

Until then, im finding a nice rock to live under so i can start making coin in this market.

The bear is done. Sorry guys.

Wait for the pullback, and stability, and take advantage of the bull.

Anonymous said...

"The bear is done. Sorry guys."

Thats amusing. So i'm expecting blowout earnings this quarter...according to you. Yes go out and buy all the economically sensitive stocks you can. I'd rather not.

The market is ignoring bad news... do I care not really???? and No I don't trust this move. So I miss out on some gains...oh well. There are still lots of problems with the economy which will eventually crimp the market. Let me guess, its different this time...I wouldn't be so sure about that....at all. There is negative breadth under this market like today, where were the normal leaders of the bull market semi's and transports....nowhere to be seen......rolled over.

So please, go and throw your money near the top of the market with a whole bunch of divergences. I'll be patient.....and wait until the market either confirms this move up or....we turn down.

Tim Knight said...

I'm inclined to agree.

Anonymous said...

Stockshaker Im looking for a pullback too, at least 11300 to go long on the dow and 2125-2150 on the nasdaq.

I remember in June when the markets were selling off day after day, this of course was right after everyone thought we were going to 12,000, what makes it different this time around, oil at $60????

I was long many stocks when the dow was under 11k, had that feeling we were going to rise back up, but after so many attempts to rally back only to see the market fall apart again and again I went bearish.


Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

Anyone think these markets are rising on the elections coming in November. Also heard that if the Democrats win these markets could be headed down pretty quick.


By the way was watching some Cramer and he said he likes the housing stocks. That guy is hilarious. Those stocks are headed down even further over the next year.


Trader 2006.

smallswinger said...

My Small Cap Swing indicator moved to a SHORT signal intraday 9/19/06. In spite of a strong up day on the 20th, it is still SHORT, though just holding on at -05. Another strong up day could whipsaw it back to LONG.

Here are the recent values of my Small Cap Swing Indicator:

. . . . . .Small
. . . . . . Cap . . . . . . . . .Russell
. . . . . .Swing . . . . . . . . .2000 . . . Cumulative
Date . . . Ind . .Signal . . % Chg . . . . % Chg

08/28 . . +05 . .LONG . . +1.1% . . . . +1.1%
08/29 . . +23 . .LONG . . +1.2% . . . . +2.3%
08/30 . . +39 . .LONG . . +0.8% . . . . +3.1%
08/31 . . +48 . .LONG . . +0.0% . . . . +3.1%
09/01 . . +52 . .LONG . . +0.1% . . . . +3.2%
09/05 . . +62 . .LONG . . +0.8% . . . . +4.0%
09/06 . . -19 . .SHORT. ..-2.1%. . . . . -2.1%
09/07 . . -43 . .SHORT. ..-0.8%. . . . . -2.9%
09/08 . . -61 . .SHORT. ..+0.3% . . . . -2.6%
09/11 . . -72 . .SHORT. ..-0.1%. . . . . -2.7%
09/12 . . +18 . .LONG . . +2.4% . . . . +2.4%
09/13 . . +41 . .LONG . . +0.8% . . . . +3.2%
09/14 . . +54 . .LONG . ..-0.4%. . . . . +2.8%
09/15 . . +65 . .LONG . . +0.2% . . . . +3.2%
09/18 . . +70 . .LONG . . +0.0% . . . . +3.2% (short triggered)
09/19 . . -06 . .SHORT. ..-0.5% . . . . -0.5%
09/20 . . -05 . .SHORT. ..+1.2% . . . .+0.7%

Normal LONG target: . . +65 to +75 (max: +95)
Normal SHORT target: . -65 to -75 (max: -107)

I remain 100% invested in SHORT positions as of Friday, the 15th.

stockshaker said...

Hey 3:27. Fair enough. THere's no denying it, I'm all for a pullback. If that turns into something more, fine.

Big damn deal.

but there is absolutely nothing that can justify a bearish sentiment right now. FED? wow. everyone knows about that right now. Its priced in. In fact, I think a handful of us STILL bring up the common thread of conversation - "this market doesn't make any sense..."

Whatever.

I guess you'll be waiting for some recession to pull up, because it hasn't yet, and god knows when things will finally take its toll. (I agree wtih that, but its not happening right now)

Thats a shame that you probably didn't capitalize on the last TWO MONTHS worth of gains (I admit it no one could have seen the bottom in July, but the BREAK OF THE multi-month 1280 resistance on the spx in Mid august, was pretty much a gift of an indication - I know, I sure as hell traded it).

So please, don't tell me about "throwing my money" at the top of the markets. Because looking at the graphs, there are SO MANY levels of support right now, that to get into any type of anything that could even REMOTELY justify as a bearish indication (which, Im guessing, you're HOPING for), would require something drastic to happen.

But do I need to argue wtih you, really? I just open the spx.

My case in crystal clear detail.

And if tomorrow things fall down the toilet, the charts will tell me.

I guess you are just waiting for the charts to tell you, and justify your bearishness. Because there is no way the charts have been providing this indication for the last couple months.

Anonymous said...

Just like they predicted more hurricanes this season they are now saying a colder forecast for the U.S. Northeast 1-3 degrees cooler.

HMMMm should i go and buy some Energy and oil stocks, maybe.


Think oil drops a bit more but heads higher into the end of the year...68+ is my guess.

Why does everyone think consumers have more money since oil has dropped 30-45 cents a gallon, it does put money in your pocket but to think it makes such a huge difference. Consumers will spend whether gas is 2 or 3 bucks a gallon. I could see if the U.S entered a recession at $50 or $60 oil but seeing no recession at 70+ oil makes you think. If they can afford a $4.00 Cup of Coffee, 3 bucks for a gallon of gas is cheap.

Trader 2006

Anonymous said...

STOCKSHAKER

The charts didnt show it, thats why I usually dont rely totally on them.

The charts arent showing 10800 either!!!

trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

And why did the markets drop in June and July from 11700+ to 10700-10800 area????

Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

"but the BREAK OF THE multi-month 1280 resistance on the spx in Mid august, was pretty much a gift of an indication - I know, I sure as hell traded it)."

Very true. Since the July low this market has made a series of higher lows and higher highs. Anyone who has been short, in puts, or bearish must be pretty clueless and a complete novice to trading. This is very basic trading 101. Sorry if that sounds harsh bears, but the market hands out some pretty hard lessons

Anonymous said...

Everyone now says it was in the charts and anyone shorting here is clueless etc etc. Again its ALWAYS AFTER THE FACT that people announce what should have been done.


Trader 2006.

izard said...

hbarr:

Yes, HMMMM . .

I remember this board JUST before the rally in Aug - it was a big BEAR party.

Now we're seeing the stalwart posters on this board getting ready to go long. All I can say is WOW . .

To see the idealogy change overnight is somethin' else. Whoever moves the markets does a very very good job with human psychology.

stockshaker said...

Trader 2006. I don't make forecasts, nor do I trade assuming things in the future (ie what could happen).

So I DON"T know if the dow will go to 10600. And frankly, I could care less.

All I DO know is that every technical indicator is pointing overbought at this point, and the spx is hitting the multiyear resistance, right now.

So, am I long right now? NO. But after the pullback, and a stabilization, will I be? WHY NOT?

If things go sour from there, you ACCEPT that you are wrong, and you trade accordingly - essentially you don't stay married to any type of bull/bear flavor.

Trader 2006, are you refering to me when people say after the fact that they should have bought?

Hell no. I was caught with my pants down just like many people here back in july. Im not saying "I told you so" but I am saying if you couldn't see the major resistance areas break down, then maybe you should step back and look over the charts again, because there were clear levels that were broken. These last few months of a bull run didn't just come in overnight!

Do I think the economy sucks right now? sure. But price isn't reflecting that right now. It'll happen, Im not ignorant, but I am going to play with what I have, and until the classic "lower lows and lower highs", occurs we have a bull market on our hands.

Anonymous said...

Im pulling the frickin horns out of my .......

stockshaker said...

Trader 2006, for sure, there was NO way you could predict the fall in May! Don't get me wrong! But you should have seen the same thing in April, where we were clearly in overbought conditions (as we are now), and there was a negative divergence between price pattern and technicals (again, as we are now).

I DONT predict where the price will fall, but I CAN say that based on the information at hand, there is something going to happen.

Like RIGHT NOW, overbought, a divergence in technicals- I see a pullback happening, for sure. IF THINGS go worse than that, then you trade accordingly!

NO ONE could say the indices would fall like it would in May-June. And anyone who does is lying right thru their teeth.

But right now, as it stands, what (at the very least) that could happen is a pullback! A breakout of a new bear cycle?? LET THE CHARTS do the talking!

Anonymous said...

Tim:

Could you please wave a white flag, even if just on paper?

Right now, that market is smelling bear blood, it will not let go until it is finished.



--J

Anonymous said...

BSI87,are you long USGL, and if so did you buy before the drop? Any info on this stock would be great. Thanks for your insightful posts. Chris

Anonymous said...

The market can't go much higher without some sort of a pull-back. Maybe the FED's tightening has worked on oil, that's why it's at $60. If the world economy didn't tank at $75 oil, then $60 shd be a real boost. Anyways, things are a little stretched, and they cld get stretchier ... playing for a small pull-back ... that's all I can see in the cards right now. Even gold of all things is down. Guess inflation is of no concern and all is fine with the world. We might escape the 4 year cycle this time around like in 1986 ... but we all know what happened in 1987. If there is no sell-off this year (and I mean a REAL sell-off, 25% or so) then by s/time in 2007 conditions will be very ripe for a crash. Pls keep some cash handy 'till then as things are a little weird right now.

- a bear with shrinking nuts

Anonymous said...

Chronic:

I'm long USGL at 4.50 and many other positions in the precious metal area.
When I look at it against the USD, the RSI is 19.74. My sell stop will be 4.17 as I pulled most of them off for Fed day. Top of the Bollinger Band is around 8 bucks.

Equities compared to gold are now at extremes.

Oil price drop was the lead story on NBC Nightly News. Probably lasted 5 minutes. I expect a contrarally shortly in energy. Maybe the first winter weather forecast will do it. Local utility called in the summer to lock in nat gas prices at $11/million BTU. Told them to fly a kite. No one calling now that it's under 6 bucks.

Started shorting bonds yesterday.

bsi87

Anonymous said...

PS one worthwhile observation by Lowry. Tops are processes and take time to build out while bottoms are generally events, characterized by fear and volume.

bsi87

Anonymous said...

bsi87 - Thanks for the reminder re: Lowry's observation. That's just one of your insightful comments for which I -- we! -- thank you.

And Tim, thank you for your provocative, interesting, and always fun-to-read blog and comments. Your fan club applauds!

~ Nona

Anonymous said...

Don't even think about comparing this mkt to 1987 and it's Oct.CRASH, because it does not exist.On Jan 1st of 1985,the DJIA clzd at 1,198.87,AN ALL TIME HIGH . On Aug.17th,1987,the DJIA clzd at 2700 and that was another ALL TIME HIGH.Just 2 & 1/2 years and the market went up more than 2 & 1/2 times.That means the DJIA would have to be at about 25,000 to have a similar correlation to '87.And right now we haven't even still touched the old high of 11,722 of over 5 yrz ago. I think right NOW it would take a nuclear missle hit on a major U.S. city to get a major downturn in the DJIA right now.Once this thing shot through 11,300 ,it shot to HELL all the charts and graphs that all of us bears have been looking at for the last 6 months and now none of us have a clue where this thing is going to end up at the end of the year. VERY HUMBLING,THIS MARKET !!!

smallswinger said...

For over three months all that has been on the mind of investors is the Fed and interest rates. That is why the bias of "bad news is good news".

Now the Fed has consecutively paused twice and the economy is clearly headed into the dumpster. Conclusion: The Fed is done!

Now investors (even the institutional ones) are forced to look at news going forward with a different bias. I think the "bad news" is going to be views in terms of future earnings rather than Fed interest rates.

A pullback is overdue and will happen with the Fed out of the way. The only thing preventing a wholescale collapse in the markets is the coming election. Wallstreet has a bias for the GOP. Therefore, big money may try to keep the markets afloat as much as possible between now and the elections.

Go look at 1994, another mid election year like 2006. And 1994 was when the GOP made their "Contract With America". Republicans won several seats that year. And after the election there was a distinct decline for six weeks.

Though we are going to have a pullback here, it is possible that a range bound market will prevail until the elections. I personally think there is a lot of pent up correction that needs to play out, but maybe not until November.

Most of the recent advances are on short covering. There is little evidence of a real "bull" advance. The market is being propped up by mutltiple parties for multiple reasons. But that kind of intervention can only go so far and for so long before the natural market forces take over. The problem with propped up markets is that when they fall they fall harder and farther.

But --- Bernanke is at the wheel and they (government/Fed/market makers) have learned the value of duplicity as they harp on inflation and yet shove free money (missing M3) out the door to force short-covering and make it appear to their liking.

The real objective is to take as much value (i.e., money, real estate, stocks, etc.) from the public as they can, pay debts off with cheaper dollars, and at the same time convince John Q. Public that there is really no inflation and that they are battling on our behalf.

Eventually, fears of recession will raise to the point that the Fed will cut rates and allow the public to be part of the scam of inflating the money supply and, in essence, reducing our asset value to pay for government largesse.

Yea - I'm pissed at the phoney "free market" system!

Anonymous said...

"Anyone who has been short, in puts, or bearish must be pretty clueless and a complete novice to trading. This is very basic trading 101. Sorry if that sounds harsh bears, but the market hands out some pretty hard lessons "

depends on time frame you are trading there anon. anyhow im with stockshaker, the markets will do what they want regardless of sentiment or economy factors, etc, your timeframe and the markets are not related all the time, it runs on a different schedule, when you do, you make meony, when you dont, you lose,
but to see which way the market is moving at that time in accordance with your trading timeframe, and NOT trade with it is just plain stupid! i made money on the initial drop of the market in the qqqq's (rising wedge all day!) but got hammered on the bottem , and hate to say it , but the short term direction here seems up.

Anonymous said...

good one there anon! maybe try posting your frikkin' name so that I can respond to you properly. If you read my post correctly, my comparison to 1987 was based on the markets by-passing the 4 year cycle in 1986. I did not say anything about the 'levels' of the markets.

- sick and tired of all the 'closet' bulls who come on here and start rooting for new highs. Hope you choke on all the stocks you buy!

- Fed up!

Anonymous said...

i think we see higher ground here, and markets will to continue up and sideways remainder of the year, i hope im wrong but dont see it right now, but i been wrong lately more than i been right so what the hell do i know, economy sucks, gettin worse, housing flat and dropping, record trade deficit, record debt, global slowdown, like stockshaker somewhat said, the market does NOT give a shit about this, why should I?
will the market correct in oct, nov, or 2007? i dont know, if it does i'll try to trade acccordingly, but to hedge a losing bet is a losers game,
trader 2006, i'm not sure on housing stocks, but i think the major correction is over for builders, fundamentally here or near , depending on company is actually a good buys on those stocks,

Anonymous said...

I just bought fuel for a $1.98 a gallon in St.Louis. Never thought that would happen again.That sure ain't gonna make this market fall anytime soon .

Anonymous said...

"Anyone who has been short, in puts, or bearish must be pretty clueless and a complete novice to trading. This is very basic trading 101. Sorry if that sounds harsh bears, but the market hands out some pretty hard lessons "


All but two (MRK and ATI) of my positions are bearish (spreads and puts) and yesterday (with the Dow up 72) was one of my most profitiable in quite a while. While the general market is going up, many stocks are breaking down-you just have to discern which.

Not every stock gains day after day, not every one is in an uptrend.

-Jana

Anonymous said...

too much bullish talk based on deteriorating fundamentals.

Get out while the gettin' is good!

-Trader Fred

Anonymous said...

IT MATTERS UNTIL IT DOESN'T

this market can change tone pretty quickly ... the VIX is about to go negative ... and you know THAT's impossible!

Anonymous said...

re:USGL

Looked at the charts and bought some more at 4.13. Small position

Do your own homework

bsi87

Anonymous said...

re:TLT

Volume is dropping off as it rallies.

Trading above its 20 day BB.

Full disclosure:short at 88.09. I'm always early.

bsi87

stockshaker said...

for a good one as well (thx bsi87 for your picks)... I found SO

Its at a multiyear resistance, and macd divergence, so I just bought some puts on it. Its struggling to keep hold of a uptrending price pattern.

Could be a little early, so I went for extra time (maybe too much time). Im stopping out at 34.78 (rather, I'll convert into a bull put spread...)

Always, check for yourself before making a trade...

stockshaker said...

bsi87, TLT looks nice! I love the divergences in price pattern, and technicals.

But then again, so many stocks are showing divergences, that I wish I had more money to invest in all of them!

There has to be a correction to bring back to order...

Anonymous said...

Just read all the posts and I have to say, the bears have thrown in the towell. Compared to the general tone of posts here even a few weeks back, sentiment on this board has done a 180.

I watch the NYSE 1 minute tick every day, and for the last few weeks it has been unrelentingly strong. Minus 1000 readings don't occur for days at a time. This is very unusual.

Until the consumer decides to cut back I don't think we see a sustained downturn in the markets. And if $3 gas didn't do, what will? They just keep using those credit cards. One hit it's limit, open a new one! Amazing.

Note: There are an awful lot of indexes with RSI readings around 70.

Anonymous said...

re:TLT

a lower risk entry is a short limit order at 88.60 with a buy to cover order at 1.5 X the ATR (.50) or.75 above the entry price. To confirm the top, it needs to close below the open and the previous close which is 88.35 on volume above 908,000. Action, if it occurs, probably won't be till after 2pm.

Just looks like everyone who wanted to be long bonds is.

bsi87

Anonymous said...

re:TLT

They're gunning on the Philly report.

bsi87

Anonymous said...

someone's wacky.

Precious metals is rallying along with bonds...unless they're both viewed as safe havens.

bsi87

Anonymous said...

Nice pullback today, for some reason though I have this feeling that this is small pullback wont last and new highs will break out very soon.

Markets down pretty heavy today but for some reason my SDS and QID are not showing for it. Guess if the markets were up 77 my SDS would be off about a buck.


Trader 2006.


Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

bought some QLD. Will buy more if it drops

Anonymous said...

Will buy QLD between 70-72, nothing more than 74. 70-72 is not asking for much either.

10:34 what price did you get QLD at.

Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

76.80

Anonymous said...

not bad, im in qid at 62, looking for 64 again so i can sell, missed my chance on tuesday.

qld will buy at 70-72.

trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

Odd, this is the same pattern on the indexes in May......before the sell off.

This is getting messy..... if yesterday was so good why are we down 90 points???? hahah. You can only mask the ugliness for so long.

Yeah one day doesn't make a bear market but technicals are starting to make sense.....the news @ noon killed the rally.

Anonymous said...

at least we're returning to some 'normalcy' I would've been surprised if the market shrugged it off!

Anonymous said...

re:TLT

Shows why tops are so much more difficult to call/trade than bottoms.

I'm gonna stay with the position thru tomorrow. Down 1.27% at time of the post.

On the flip side, the precious metals and oils are rallying. USGL position is down 1.9% after buying this AM.

Entry/exit price and position size is more important than picking the stock or fussing about the trend.

bsi87

stockshaker said...

well, this was expected. The spx had generated the divergence signal a week ago. and now the dow is on the brink of creating the same signal.

Pullback... or more?

Don't read too much into where it can go, because right now, a pullback is due, but to start comparing to what happened in may could just be too early.

Technicals/volume/price pattern do look similar, but positioning for something that hasn't been confirmed could be quite costly.

downosedive said...

stockshaker - yes, exactly, we should read too much into todays decline. Its much too early to think of a change of direction. Time may show this to be a turning point, but I really feel that sentiment will return to bullish and the uptrend will continue for a while yet. An actual about turn might only occur when new closing highs have been acheived and quite possibly a test of the 12000 level. Im not a closet bull, by the way. If that scenario or similar happens, I would be reckoning on a sustained market down turn

Anonymous said...

I think the best thing to do now is to buy QLD and other long ETFs and screw the Mother Fu**ing PPT by selling to them when they try to protect the market

stockshaker said...

are you guys finding so many amazing setups? I had mentioned NUE, and TS many-a-times because it is creating a textbook triangle. (NUE looks like its finally cracking the support level - about damn time), TS looks like its starting to move (take a look at the last half hour of todays action, holy crap).

But There are SO many stocks I can find with triangle formations, poised for a movement.

The other one to add to the list is

X

Again, same thing.

It's like stumbling upon an underground club with beautiful women everywhere.