Monday, September 18, 2006

Another Go-Nowhere Session

Snore. I think the last time the market had any real direction was several years ago. This is just a snoozer. I guess we are in yet another wait-for-the-Fed situation (they announce Wednesday at 2:15 EST).

Old hurricane5 favorite HANS continues to look nice as a long-term short play, which has worked its way back up to its fan line.


Same with hurricane5 favorite NTRI.


I retract my earlier statement that GOOG was stale. It seems to have some life in it again, although it's hardly the dynamo it used to be. Below is its entire history since the IPO.


I posted earlier today about gold and oil, so you might want to take a look. Until tomorrow, ta-ta........

70 comments:

stockshaker said...

Well, I'll be the first to tell you about the new bald spot I have on my head. Last week was a beautful day for oil stocks. Today it was the opposite, as many of you here probably are aware.

But looking at the indices, I think things are becoming very clear at this point. Spinning tops all over the place, (a doji on the QQQQ), and overbought conditions. My MACD indicator is looking like its getting ready to fail a three month trendline (on the djia).

Im no gambling man by any means, unless its based educated risk and graphs I can see. And if i were to take a gamble on shorting, I would think that the time is coming really soon. (Im still short on oil and oil related, see previous posts...)





This could either be

stockshaker said...

damn. i wish I had a chart to show you guys about what Im seeing right now, its so amazing!

Im looking at the spx, and it has (already) created a negative divergence between macd and price pattern. Despite the upward prices, the macd has already failed its price channel. I mean, all this text is nice, but, essentially this means is that it is bad.

Last time it failed a price channel while price was still going up (without conviction) was (gasp) in April, which (I guess now that we can look back), would give a trader a hint toward something bearish to happen in the near future. -- But there was no way to predict that huge fall in May.

I don't know what all this means right now, except I would be a little weary doing anything long.

But I don't know how much/how soon this divergence will catch up with the price pattern.

All I know is that right now, its still a bull game. and if there was antyhing substantial to come (on the spx), we still have a huge support level at 1280 (but also another one at around 1295...)

walter said...

anyone know where i can get a free fib fan tool?

thanks

Anonymous said...

Cramer Mother Fu**er has turned bullish on chip stocks, which means only 1 thing, that these stocks have become over-priced. So, get out of these ASAP.

Anonymous said...

bullish on chip stocks? at this point in the cycle? with no prcing power? ... someone indict this guy, or at least take his crack away!

yeah, sure, he needs to help his hedge fund buddies unload it on the retail guy!

Anonymous said...

bullish on chips, hahaha. Cramer is too funny.

Anonymous said...

From the street.com article, i dont subscribe but this part of it:


About this article:
If the index falls back to 1585-1600, I'll go long. . There should be an entry Monday for short exposure over 1640. . The final target for shorts should be somewhere under 1600. .


I'm predicting a DROP to 1600 sometime this week, as bearish as I am if I could pick up some SMH at $32 or RTH around $92 I wouldnt mind it for a Trade.


Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

Another article from street.com.

Brace for a Decline

By Adam Oliensis

About this article:
We're seeing a rotation of buying interest. This is likely to generate a cathartic, tradable decline by mid-October. Watch the Dow Jones Transportation Average for a telling failure.


trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Amaranth Advisors LLC, a hedge-fund manager with $9.5 billion in assets, said last week's plunge in natural-gas prices left its two main funds with year-to-date losses that may exceed 35 percent.

Anonymous said...

Its not just the TV audience, there is so many of Cramer's sockpuppets out there blogging. Either they are getting paid by him or just the most stupidest morons in the world.

Don't know why this guy is still not screwed in the ass by the SEC.

EddieFl said...

cramer is not a trader he is a fundamentalist.

Basically he got into the biz in 1982 with some trustfund friends from Harvard, rode the bull market until 2002 and got out.

Although he is worth 100mm+, when you start out with 10mm , that dont impress me much. he got on a 20yr bull market, where all you had to do was buy and hold, his first real bear in 2001-2003 and he gets out of the game,

Plus he acts like a complete ass-clown on t.v.

Anonymous said...

Please, Cramer got rich because he owns thestreet.com. He didn't get rich by trading.

Anonymous said...

Come to think of it, most traders don't get rich by trading. They get rich by selling books or services on trading. In order to make lots of money, you need to sell products or services that people want.

Anonymous said...

Hey everyone check out ROB TV in canada today around 12:30pm Est.time. you can get it on the web, Elliot wave analyst is supposed to be on, enjoy!

Leisa said...

Re Cramer....I'm a novice investor though I have financial background--generally too busy with life to think about the market much. So I set about my education. I purchased STX in August 05 after much research, technical and fundamental. I then started listening to Cramer who essentially trashed the stock. It went down and down, and I bought it going down (yeah I know that you aren't supposed to do that, but I felt that my research was sound and I wasn't risking more than I could afford). After hearing STX trashed for the umpteenth time, I lost my confidence. He after all had to know more the I. I capitulated--throwing my research and conviction out the door. I walked away from a tremendous gain. I'm not crying over spilt milk, but I lost respect for Cramer when he started crowing about how he called the tech rally of last fall/winter and then when he capitulated and started saying all of the storage makers were hot.

Anonymous said...

"I think the last time the market had any real direction was several years ago."

Absolutely hilarious. We've been in a rip snorting bull market for almost 3 years now. I love this guy's sense of humor. Toshi you are SO GOOD!

downosedive said...

ntri - directors have sold millions of shares, no purchases. Always a clear sign to hit the exit button

Anonymous said...

"Hey everyone check out ROB TV in canada today around 12:30pm Est.time. you can get it on the web, Elliot wave analyst is supposed to be on, enjoy!"

Yay another Canadian.....!!!:)

Marc U said...

Tim,

Just heard the news about the merger between ThinkorSwim and Investools. Is TOS going to use prophet charts or retain their current charts?

Anonymous said...

VIMC is setting up for a move up
I jsut bought some at 10.65


costas1966

Tim Knight said...

"Just heard the news about the merger between ThinkorSwim and Investools. Is TOS going to use prophet charts or retain their current charts?"

Not really sure at this time. At this point, ProphetCharts will be exclusively on the new Investor Toolbox, although I am hoping we can make them available for an extra price on Prophet.net as well. They are fantastic!

Anonymous said...

Whats going on with yahoo?????

smallswinger said...

My Small Cap Swing indicator has moved to a SHORT signal intraday 9/19/06. It closed LONG yesterday, Sept 18th , at +70, though it “triggered” a SHORT during the day. As of 11:30am today it is SHORT at a value -7.


Here are the recent values of my Small Cap Swing Indicator:

. . . . . .Small
. . . . . . Cap . . . . . . . . .Russell
. . . . . .Swing . . . . . . . . .2000 . . . Cumulative
Date . . . Ind . .Signal . . % Chg . . . . % Chg

08/28 . . +05 . .LONG . . +1.1% . . . . +1.1%
08/29 . . +23 . .LONG . . +1.2% . . . . +2.3%
08/30 . . +39 . .LONG . . +0.8% . . . . +3.1%
08/31 . . +48 . .LONG . . +0.0% . . . . +3.1%
09/01 . . +52 . .LONG . . +0.1% . . . . +3.2%
09/05 . . +62 . .LONG . . +0.8% . . . . +4.0%
09/06 . . -19 . .SHORT. ..-2.1%. . . . . -2.1%
09/07 . . -43 . .SHORT. ..-0.8%. . . . . -2.9%
09/08 . . -61 . .SHORT. ..+0.3% . . . . -2.6%
09/11 . . -72 . .SHORT. ..-0.1%. . . . . -2.7%
09/12 . . +18 . .LONG . . +2.4% . . . . +2.4%
09/13 . . +41 . .LONG . . +0.8% . . . . +3.2%
09/14 . . +54 . .LONG . ..-0.4%. . . . . +2.8%
09/15 . . +65 . .LONG . . +0.2% . . . . +3.2%
09/18 . . +70 . .LONG . . +0.0% . . . . +3.2% (short triggered)
09/19 . . .-07 . .SHORT. .-0.5% . Intraday @ 11:30am ET

Normal LONG target: . . +65 to +75 (max: +95)
Normal SHORT target: . -65 to -75 (max: -107)

I remain 100% invested in SHORT positions as of Friday, the 15th.

Anonymous said...

Something is going on.......

AMZN yhoo and goog....


There is something going on in Thailand but that shouldn't bring all of them down this quickly.

Anonymous said...

nasdaq down 16 points, but I don't see many stocks down.

Anonymous said...

re:bonds

Okay, Tony, here's your chance. Time to short bonds. I shorted TLT at 88.05. It's at the top of its daily and weekly Bollinger Band.

ATR is 50 cents so the stop will be around 88.75.

bsi87

Sanjay Sola said...

Wow, Yahoo is getting slammed. down 13% on news of ad-sales slowdown.

this market was very easy to spot yesterday. you could see the reversal unfold.

Anonymous said...

re:OIH

Big rejection of 130 area so far.

Short via SNPIX.

Do your own homework.

re:Bonds. TLT P&F shows 78 as downside target. Bollinger Bands shows about 83 on the daily.

Anonymous said...

Lets have a little check on how Complacent the market is.... by the end of the day. This should take out those stupid agressive dip buyers.......

The market is now in danger zone.... someone forgot to tell people that the economy has already slowed and earnings are going to be a disaster.

Sanjay Sola said...

is today going to be distribution day #3?

Anonymous said...

Looks like the Plunge protection team is on there way to the seen.... I'm waiting until the air gets fresher to lay positions on the table.

Anonymous said...

PPT in full action. The market will sky-rocket in an hour. The market will end up +20 on the nasdaq

Anonymous said...

"In Hungary it turns out that Prime Minister Gyurscany lied about the health of the economy in trying to get reelected. This has resulted in demonstrations in the streets including, according to one story I read, a takeover of state-run television! "


DOES THIS SOUND FAMILIAR???? Hmmm I can't think of any party that would do this to get reelected?

smallswinger said...

The recent rallies (August, primarily) have been quick affairs, mostly on the backs of short-covering with a fewer number of big buyers trying to prop up the prices.

Go check them out. 2-3 day spike rallies followed by several agonizing days working lower.

A lot of pent-up "real" correction exists. The retail buyers have been slow committing to this market, which I am sure has frustrated the market makers. Perhaps enough of them have finally committed that a "real" correction can occur.

I think there is at minimum a 4-5% swing correction in place. I would look to short an ANY BOUNCE!

Sanjay Sola said...

I bought the dip. hoping to get some AAPL and AEOS but they don't go down much.

Anonymous said...

Afternoon pumps have been brought out. They are under orders to keep the market up till the elections, so some people can claim the economy is doing so well under their term.

The harder they try to keep this up, the harder it will ultimately fall.

Anonymous said...

Those home builders are up to something, there is really fucked up news everywhere and they just don't seem to die. What will make these stocks go down?

amarneil said...

Buying Google.....Shorting OIH...(will sell Google if it falls below 395 today)

Anonymous said...

Alright it looks like the Plunge protection team looks like they are going to work.... lets see how much cash is on the sidelines right now? I would be mighty impressed with the amount of volume today if they could cut these losses on the indexes in half.....in front of the fed meeting.

If they can't hold the markets up, then it could get ugly in a hurry as people get out of their positions.

Anonymous said...

Is there any way to screw the PPT?

Hbarr said...

Tim,

Beware of the Super Bears!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QBuXz4ozJLc

Anonymous said...

My God, look at them run up the prices! Its insane! Do they want to close the market green? They must be pumping in enormous amounts of liquidity to lift this market.

I wish I were more nimble, so I could play at their game - ride the stocks they are driving up and get off before they stop pumping.

Anonymous said...

I think just keep buying QLD. The PPT will make sure the QLD just keeps going higher, higher, and higer

Anonymous said...

I think the last hour we will see the stocks go so high ... NASDAQ will close +50 today. NASDAQ 10,000 here we come. Just keep printing the green paper and buy more stocks :-)

Anonymous said...

VIMC something is cooking with that stock. Look at the volume

Costas1966

Sanjay Sola said...

I am not a big fan of Cramer, but I believe he was right when he said that money is coming out of energy and into tech. he said that would start a rally on short interest.

also, there were a lot of downgrades today, so funds could get into the best stocks. AKAM, FMD, and CSH all had downgrades. they are all strong stocks

Anonymous said...

As planned the PPT is at it again... the dow is now dow only 35 points and the naz has recovered half of its gains...I smell complacency.

I just cant get involved in this market.....yet. if you went long one of these days...the insurance policy will not be there....rather they won't be buying but selling the mass positions they dumped.

And given the yahoo news...this is getting DANGEROUS.

Anonymous said...

sanjay sola as an csh alternative i would look at ezpw. That is setting up for a run to the highs

costas1966

downosedive said...

Unbeleivable, 15 mins to close and DJA down just 15pts. And todays score is......Pumps 1, Bears lost. This is just too much

Anonymous said...

What a day, didnt get to trade but still own my QID that I bought on Friday, was up nearly $2.00 on it but then of course everything came back to normal by 4pm, go figure. Still dont know how this market managed to make it back nearly positive.

YHOO i think is what hurt the market today. Down over 10% on slowdown concerns. Couldnt come at a perfect time. Tomorrow is the FOMC meeting. I think they leave the rates unchanged which should should keep the market floating around 11450-11600, shouldnt be any news that should make the market volatile unless they reduce rates or hike rates by a 1/4.

Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

I hate saying this but the bears did lose today. Dow should have sunk 100+ points into the 4pm closing and the nasdaq 35+. That would have been great.

Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

Looks like CPI and PPI data show no signs of inflation in the last 2 months. Especially today with PPI, everything seemed perfect.

I think it was this that help selloff the markets.

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Housing construction plunged in August, falling to the lowest level in more than three years as the once-booming industry showed further signs of a dramatic slowdown.


Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

Oracle's results stronger than expected. Shares up 9% after hours.

Anonymous said...

I think this is the time to load up on any god damn stock and sell it when THEY realize the reality. I think all longs will be have COMPLETE support of the PPT

Starting tomorrow will load up on QLD.

Anonymous said...

Watching Fast Money, they have buys on PHM and HOV. Come on......they say there cheap. The housing market is ready to collapse!!! Homebuilders dropping another 25+%%% in the next 3-6 months


Trader 2006

Anonymous said...

So here is what I think:

Inflation is contained......but not enough for the fed to cut rates.....and could get out of hand in a second. Rates are at 5.25%. The damage is done..... wait until earnings....they will be ugly and will be the catalyst for the four year cycle low at the end of october......

When a company reports bad earnings..... or says something bad..the bulls quicly defend and say they are an individual situation. But when someone reports something good...they represent the group.

I.e. Oracle...Since when did software represent a good indication of the health of the economy???

Get ready, we are near.

Anonymous said...

2:09pm

Load up on QLD, ha

Why now????

Wait for at least a pullback to 70-72 area.

ORCL is up 9% AH, ORCL is a stock that doesnt move markets like it used too. They will make the excuse that if the markets are up tomorrow thats its on ORCL earnings. Maybe 5 years ago but not today, Sorry.

Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

2:22pm

Inflation may be contained, rates may stay unchanged tomorrow but if CPI and PPI show any signs of inflation and rates will be back at 5.5%-6%.

Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

Poor ignorant bears! When will these yahoos learn. Play WTF you see! Screw seasonality, screw trying to predict hardlanding or softlanding (nobody knows!!!) The market is overbought and all the friggin' dumb ass option bears jumped in like bees too honey...do you dum-dums realize what market makers do when the put-call ratios get extreme? They either delta hedge or floor the market. Guess what option bears did today a put/call of damn near 2.00 at 10am? No wonder the markets can't fall hard to unwind the oscillators. You gotta be some kinda idiot to short this market. Stay in cash or friggin go LONG. Don't SHORT or buy Puts! The market wants higher...piss on seasonality...play what you see!

Sanjay Sola said...

oil is down to $61 and change. going to be good for the consumer.

Anonymous said...

it was above 2 yesterday afternoon, last time it was that high we had a pretty large sell-off.

2:39 dont get upset on this minor selloff today, if we head down tomorrow expect the markets to trade down the rest of the week. Not expecting any kind of rally on the 2:15pm statement.

Guys on Fast money said there not doing anything until 3pm, said if the markets are up go long and if there down going into the close tomorrow short away!!!

Trader 2006.

Trader 2006.

EddieFl said...

anonymous 2:39p.m.,


I think we drink the same Bourbon, good call and good on keeping an open mind.

You have to value increasing your trading account's balance more than you value your opinion. I know it sounds so simple, but it is very hard to remove yourself from trading decisions. Let your indicators or system do the trading for you.

If you wannbe right or show your intelligence constantly then you could try out for Jeopardy.

Anonymous said...

GOLD AND SILVER


Looking to go long GOLD between 525-545

and silver 9.00-9.50.

Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

"Guess what option bears did today a put/call of damn near 2.00 at 10am? No wonder the markets can't fall hard to unwind the oscillators. You gotta be some kinda idiot to short this market. Stay in cash or friggin go LONG. Don't SHORT or buy Puts!"

Exactly right. With put/call this high only a novice trader would be long puts. With sentiment this negative and everyone saying the same thing ie the market is overbought the risk/reward favors more gains.

Anonymous said...

I have heard the market going higher more times then I have heard its overbought. Market needs a 2-3% pullback to get to that magical number 12,000.

Many bulls worried about today especially after that yahoo news and construction number. Construction number showing a HUGE slowdown in the housing industry. Ill continue to repeat myself saying that the housing market is not looking good and that housing prices will continue to fall leading us into a recession in 2007.

Trader 2006.

Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

"Ill continue to repeat myself saying that the housing market is not looking good and that housing prices will continue to fall leading us into a recession in 2007."

I've heard this reported in every economic article, every day now for the last 3 months. Ever wonder whether this news has been priced in already? Look at homebuilders, they're rallying. Sorry this isn't new news, and won't move the market, just like the inverted yield curve will lead to a recession.

Anonymous said...

Homebuilders will fall again!!!!

They need another 25% drop.

Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

no way!! The PPT will make sure the home builders get their share. I expect 50% rise on KBH, TOL, etc

Anonymous said...

A housing slowdown leading to recession!!!??? You know what Greenspan and Bernanke following did nothing but raise rates...WHY?...because GreenSpan especially didn't like the ridiculous appreciation in the housing markets...so he raised and raised and raised and guess what he succeeded. So the slowdown here isn't going to lead to any recession. The housing market stocks have been showing signs of life and that bottom is in on the homebuilders in late july. So you're not going too see less homeprice deterioration, especially when the fed isn't likely to raise tomorrow. No recession in 2007. Housing prices were ridiculously inflated and these are certainly coming down at a much slower rate than that runup we had. Massive positive divergence on housing stocks....If the fed is stupid enough to raise rates tomorrow for some cockeyed reason then yeah a recession in the cards, no raise "trader's market", drop in rates nirvanna in the markets strong bull coming after we clear out these overbought conditions.

Anonymous said...

too funny too funny


Trader 2006.