Tuesday, September 12, 2006

Triple Digit Up Day

I don't mean to make this the "oil and gold bear blog", but that's where all the fun has been the past week. Oil's descent slowed somewhat today, but at least it didn't reverse. This is one of the greatest head & shoulders patterns I've ever seen. The green shaded area indicates the potential to fall based on classic measurement techniques. I doubt it'll sail straight down, however. That would be just too easy!


As I've pointed out, $XAU is forming an H&S - it hasn't completed one yet. I've eased up a little on my short positions on both gold and oil for now, but I'm still plenty short. It's just fallen awfully far, awfully fast. Plenty more potential downside, though.


Below is a ten year view of the S&P 100 ($OEX). We are, once again, nearing the 50% retracement level. I would be flabbergasted (and mightily disappointed) if it managed to get to the north side of this line. We are within spitting distance of the high seen in May. Might even make a new yearly high tomorrow.


The $SPX is still on the "correct" side of the trendline shown here, but the market showed some real strength today. Another strong up day Wednesday would splash some cold water on all the fun I've been having.


The Dow Transportation index seems to have retraced to the underside of its former trendline. Could this be the end of the retracement?


...and the Utilities are softening...


I happened across this chart of JRC today. I have no position in it, but I just loved seeing a stock do little else but fall day after day. It warms a bear's heart.


See you Wednesday!

61 comments:

Anonymous said...

Tim,

Thank you for the "updated" Blog for tonight!

Regards,

Old Fashioned Reader

Anonymous said...

guess it's back to technical analysis and not 'comedy central'!

My grandmother still gives good head ... start, on tomorrow's trading!

PB said...

Karigato ... Daniel son! ... errr ... Tim-son!

Looks like we had our 9/11 rally ... so now what? The fundamentals are still deteriorating but you wouldn't know it by looking at the markets. I think this is just a 'natural' pull up to the 200 day m.a (NDAQ) Money supply is contracting both here and Japan ... we all remember May 11th and how fast the markets retreated from 6 year highs!

Let's have an encore!

Anonymous said...

Dearest Tim,
YOU HAVE NO BALLS! Instead of those videos why don't you post your brokerage statements? Maybe that would be more entertaining?

Tim Knight said...

I just can't win. I post a funny "out there" video and all the Reader's Digest readers bellyache. I get rid of it, and people complain I have no balls. Sheesh, people. The time I spend each day on this blog is a gift, people. It's free! Give me a break.

Anonymous said...

Tim, that was hillarious video.
But why did you take it out. Those who don't like it should get the f*** out of this blog anyway

Volvosan said...

We'll see if the NASDAQ can finish this triple-witching week above 2195 - where it stalled 2 weeks ago. All bearish bets may be off if it does - it will probably take out the 200dma and keep going. I, for my part have cashed in half of my long contracts today, as there was good profit on the table.
If friday's CPI comes in hotter than expected - and several notable economists are quietly expecting it to, then there could be a wild selloff.
As a final curiosity, AAPL announces a major new product and I-TV to come - and the stock does NOTHING, as it sits butting its head against a downward-sloping trendline. What is that all about?

THE D.A said...

ANON 7:58,
Next time you have a thought,(LET IT GO).

Anonymous said...

if the CPI comes in hotter than its suppose to expect a 1.5-2% decline in all averages. For some reason though Im having this feeling its going to come in just perfect.

Wait till cnbc starts hyping up the markets even more when they get close to new highs. They did that last time and guess what , EVERYTHING TANKKKED...

Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

Give me another up day to take out more short positions. This market will easily test June/July lows in the next 2 months. Take advantage of any profits you have on your long positions and sell. These gains we have seen in the last 4-6 weeks can easily disappear in 1-2 weeks. Its always quicker going down than up.

Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

For what it's worth, I thought I'd share by perspective on the video issue. I am far from a "Readers Digest" type, as a single guy in my early 30's who is often accused of living life on the edge. Not much I haven't seen or done, in other words, and even I thought the video was "inappropriate" for this context. Don't get me wrong, I'm not going to lose any sleep over it, but while watching I did wonder what you were thinking by posting that here- and have to agree with someone earlier who was disappointed it wasn't even particularly funny. We all know your blog is free and you put some time into it, so thanks for that. But you might do well to consider you don't know who is reading it. If someone like me thought it was in bad taste, what does grandma or a 17 yr. old girl think? As for the previous poster who said you have no balls, I think you misunderstood him. He wasn't saying you should have left the videos in place, he was asking about your trading account statements since you've been a stubborn bear while the markets keep going higher. Bottom line: people simply expect a little professionalism from someone running a public forum and a related business.

Leisa said...

Tim (or should I call you Toshi!), you are SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO good!

The video brought a smile. I appreciated your posting.

plunger said...

the two anan posters aginst the video, same guy! what the hell ? grow up or move on, its his blog , he decides what was appropriate, if you dont like it mr. dangerous, leave, it was just a funny clip to lighten up your day, again, it's tims blog!!! a bunch of people post things here that i dislike, but you dont hear me whining about it,

you have the right to go somewhere else,, USE IT!

plunger said...

another up day this week and the rising flagg on the qqqq's will be broken to the upside, not god, have to wait and see, these last two days are accompanied by vol. this time, naz. vol up 18%. could be bad for da' bears..

Anonymous said...

Market's in bull mode now, real positive action yesterday. Weak oil and gold, strong tech and financials-- the ingredients for a rally. As for the video, have to vote with the "whiners"-- it seemed a bad choice to me, but yeah it's Tim's blog. As for plunger, we actually have heard you whine from time to time, including this morning! Carry on.

PB said...

anon poster at 3:29 am --- what kind of an edge are you living on pal, if a simple engrish video 'offends' you! You haven't lived if in your thirties you are already complaining about such things ... aren't you supposed to be out there living it up? hahahaha ... no wonder you remained anonymous ... you are a PUSSY!!!

As for Tim's statements, those are his OWN personal business! It's little bitches like you who always fukc things up for everyone else!

Why don't you go and practice some good cunt lapping!

downosedive said...

Trader 2006 - can I ask if you still have your full short positions from the 11250 level? If so are you going to carry them over in full to the Dec contract?

plunger said...

anon 4:47, dont fucking vote, unless you got the balls to post a name, or how about i just call you fukstik, that work? as for me whining fuk off, if your too stupid to see the difference between defending someones rights and some of the whining goin on well; keep posting anonymously then, you never heard me whine here u dikhead, if you have, go back, copy it and re-post it for all to see, you asshole oh yeah...carry on, like i need your fucking permission.. fuk off

Anonymous said...

re: mkts. Still chopping around. Tough to be long OR short. That said..

re:APPL. Still short. All this great news on downloadable movies? Heck one can use Bitcomet and download first run movies and play them on all platforms. I didn't see anything that exciting about the announcement. AND the local major metro paper had an article on AAPL and the announcement on the front page above the fold. Ding,ding,ding.

Bought a bit of DBC and some PSQ yesterday at the close. After the close, CNBC dragged Abbey J out. She's bullish, probably time to short.

ROFL

I'm looking at some energy plays, CCJ, TNP,PXP, and OMM. No positions yet. Carrying about 60-80% cash in various portfolios.

bsi87

chanon said...

up too far ..tooo fast, lets wait for rally in October
DOW

plunger said...

nice call on mon by superbull, going long on the qqqq's, and i think stockshaker called nue also, nice breakdown so far, chart looks good for a fall ,, wheres all the posters who wanted everyone to load up on gold and oil? must be too busy licking their wounds,,, i have given up on the direction of the market right now, sure seems to have some strength now, will it hold? no idea, puts are cheap now, but trade smart, except for you anonymous posters, i hope you lose all your money, quit the markets, contract ebola or at least shingles and go away.

J said...

QQQQ, COMPX

Fall off the rising wedge now back tested the the lower rising trend line. COMPX also kiss 200dma from down under. If we don't here, bear case is over. Lets rally these sheets to 10am and then pull the carpet the rest of the day....

Tim Knight said...

PB, that was funny - made my morning.

Honestly, folks, believe it or not, I'm a fairly straight-laced guy. I just thought the video was a scream. Maybe I've lived in California too long. I forget there is a "middle America" and I need to respect that.

I'll try to keep the content financially-focused. But I'm not going to pledge to make this a G-rated forum. This isn't Romper Room. I share my thoughts here. And sometimes my thoughts aren't going to clear the MPAA rating system.

Take care, and thanks.....

EddieFl said...

Tim, just keep up the good work,, video was fine.

You update the blog which is FREE, on top of everything else you do. You probably do more before lunch than most people do all day..



MArket is strong, if we go up for the next trend , looks like nobody wants to miss the train. they cant find a reason to sell it off right now.

Anonymous said...

PS watch VXN. Gets down to 16 or so, I'll recheck but probably load up on the inverse ETF's.

I'll be looking to get very long the mkt sometime after mid October per Sy Harding. The rotten big boys want to earn their Q4 and yr bonuses.

bsi87

Anonymous said...

"Market's in bull mode now"

Hardly, wait until earnings for the 3rd quarter...there won't be enough exits. Oil is down, thats great...or is it??? There is a slowdown so businesses don't use as much, sooner or later this will catch up with people.

I'm not fighting this, but if I can't find a reason to buy then I don't even if it means missing out on a rally...protecting profits is way to important.

Sanjay Sola said...

who are the market leaders running this show?


I have these guys as the market leaderlist board: AKAM, AAPL, FORM, AVCI, AEOS CTSH, MA, NTRI, PWEI, GOOG, SNDK, and RIMM.

two charts to watch are OXPS and CWTR.

leadership needs some work, but it's improving a little.

stockshaker said...

hey Tim, I missed the video the first time. Can you put it up again?

Anonymous said...

Keep the video up.....its your blog not theirs.
If they dont like it let them go somewhere else.



Trader 2006.

Richard Nikoley said...

Tim:

Hey, man, the video was great, of course, and I've already forwarded the utube link to all the appropriate parties, so thanks for that.

Here's what I believe I like most about this blog. Here you are, a successful SV entrepreneur (I live down here in the South Bay) and now SVP of a publicly traded company and you've got the cajones to post stuff like that video, and the "So Fuck Off" sticker on you notebook (not to mention, carry it around).

Guess what? That tells me you're the kind of guy who's made his way in life and has absolutely no need of pretense of any sort. Take it of leave it, or eff off. Good for you.

You and T.J. Rogers over at Cypress ought to get together.

You know, America's chief problem is an overabundance of immature crybabies, whiners, and busybodies. It's like I always say: America's lesson to the rest of the world is to never, _EVER_ let a bunch of Puritans get on a boat again.

You keep it right up, man.

As to the trading, I try to stay agnostic about market direction, but my heart and mind is with the bears. "The intelligentsia." Ha! I shamelessly stole that moniker for use in my own blog.

I look at it this way: I'd far rather _earn_ a small fortune with my mind than _win_ a huge one through dumb-luck buying on any and every delusion.

A final note. I'm signed up for your workshop in Orlando in February. Looking forward to sayin' "hi."

Richard Nikoley, CEO
Provanta Corp.
www.provantacorp.com

blog: www.uncsense.com

Anonymous said...

from the street.com, i dont have a subscription, this was the beginning part of the article.

I believe traders will begin putting on distribution pressure. . I don't expect the index to break 1630-35 with any sustainability on the first test. . I wouldn't get aggressive shorting unless you see a move closer to 1630. .

Trader 2006.

PB said...

Hey bsi87 --- what is the symbol for the inverse VXN etf?

Thx

Anonymous said...

sanjay sola --- if those are the leaders, this market is in trouble (or denial) for the time being. Leadership is weak. I don't trust this market. The pro's are trying to dump everything on the retail guy. But retail is not buying it.

Anonymous said...

sanjay, are u no longer short?

Anonymous said...

Just give it time, when this market falls its going to be a pretty hard fall.

Mike

Tim Knight said...

For those of you who are asking for the video link, it is

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XganhdCqj_o

Please BE WARNED that if you are offended by - well - anything - don't bother going there. Otherwise, enjoy - I personally think it's a riot.

Sanjay Sola said...

i was losing money on my shorts and bought some positions in
AKAM, CTSH, OXPS, GOOG, RIMM, and SNDK.

looking to buy more after options week. 30% cash for pullbacks.

PB said...

GG is ripe for a quick run-up to $27 then $29 ... it's in the low $24's now.

Anonymous said...

pb check out GDX instead, less risk more diversification.

Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

sanjay, do u still have the shorts open from yesterday as well as the new longs? thanks.

Anonymous said...

bought some QID for a TRADE today, in at $63.00, think the markets will weaken by mid-day.

Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

sold it, market isnt moving much.

Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

taken from an article:

Since 1989, after the S&P 500 index has dropped three days in a row, it has risen nearly 4 times it's average weekly gain over the next five trading days. And, after the S&P 500 has risen 3 days in a row, it has made nearly zero net gains over the next five trading days. And the same price behavior has been seen in the Nasdaq 100 index.


Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

When do bear get break??

die market

Sanjay Sola said...

I closed my short positions except Celgene because that stock is in a 4th stage base, trending down, and not participating in the rally.

I feel much better not holding short positions when very few charts are trending down. maybe, we'll head down since we're close to highs and we've been up so much lately.

but i'd rather have money to buy the dips. this looks like a market you can buy the pullbacks on.

better to go with the market rather than have opinions and trying to forecast the economy and the market. play stocks not the market.

Anonymous said...

sanjay you have to factor in economic problems when trading, last week when the markets fell they had headlines reading, markets down on recession fears etc etc. There is always an excuse as to why the markets are moving.

Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

OIH retesting the 130 area. buying some SNPIX.

Do your own homework.

bsi87

AAPLBULL said...

"When do bear get break??"

Not when bear is looking for one. Cover, then they will tank! Who else you think are doing all these buying? LOL!

Anonymous said...

not sure how reliable max pain theory is, but stocks are way above their max pain values.

Anonymous said...

bsi you think oil is going lower...
snpix trading around 27, you think it heads to 30++

Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

I think many are anticipating a lower inflation # for friday, again if it happens the dow will most likely break out to 6 year highs.

Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

market jumping WTFFFFFF. hahaha to funny. cant wait for the selloff

Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

insane marekt

That is all i have to say

dead bear

Anonymous said...

f this market, completely upside down day.

Anonymous said...

went long QID for tomorrow, back in at $62.80.

smallswinger said...

Early on 9/12/06 my Small Cap Swing indicator moved to a LONG signal. The day ended as a huge spike rally, meaning that this short cycle LONG signal is likely to be a short-duration move (less than 4 days). It is likely to move back to SHORT by Friday or sooner.

Here are the recent values of the Small Cap Swing Indicator.

. . . . . .Small
. . . . . . Cap . . . . . . . . Russell
. . . . . .Swing . . . . . . . . .2000
Date . . . Ind . .Signal . . % Chg

08/28 . . +05 . .LONG . . +1.1%
08/29 . . +23 . .LONG . . +1.2%
08/30 . . +39 . .LONG . . +0.8%
08/31 . . +48 . .LONG . . +0.0%
09/01 . . +52 . .LONG . . +0.1%
09/05 . . +62 . .LONG . . +0.8%
09/06 . . -19 . .SHORT. ..-2.1%
09/07 . . -43 . .SHORT. ..-0.8%
09/08 . . -61 . .SHORT. ..+0.3%
09/11 . . -72 . .SHORT. ..-0.1%
09/12 . . +18 . .LONG . . +2.4%
09/12 . . +41 . .LONG . . +0.8% . Intraday @ 3:00om ET

Normal LONG target: . . +65 to +75 (max: +95)
Normal SHORT target: . -65 to -75 (max: -107)

This LONG signal has unusual momentum and will soon reach the normal max levels. Personally I don't think we will see more than 1-2 more up days before it switches to SHORT.

Anonymous said...

perfect buy on QID at $62.80, hopefully these markets drop hard tomorrow.

Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

small swinger, looks like it maybe as early as tomorrow. Profit taking is coming, but friday is a WHOLE OTHER STORY.

Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

The Battle for Stalingrad ($74) is taking place in AAPL and it looks like the bears are getting the better of it right now.

stockshaker said...

I don't know who was mentioning long on the QQQQs. Its hitting its $40 resistance. And if you look carefully (daily charts), you can see a perfect textbook illustration of a inverse head and shoulders. The 40 would be the neckline...

Oil sector and associated stocks had a nice rally despite the dramatic fall two days ago. But I wouldn't get too alarmed. Sure, many are up 2%, but all are still under resistances. And volume is not accompanying today's followthrough from yesterday's recoil from Monday's fall.

If anyone looked at a couple stocks I had mentioned - NUE, PD, FTO, and TS... Only TS looks like it bounced back above resistance (barely). but volume is still not there to make me think that Monday's action was just a headfake.

You can see a really nice triangle on both NUE and TS, and if price moves through the upside of the triangle THEN I'll be here to say, "well, so much for that" - but I would have converted my puts into bull put spread, and just make profits that way...

stockshaker said...

Actually, my only oil stock FTO, had the most volume compared to 30 day average out of the four I had mentioned in the last post. And if you look at what happend, the bears took control in the end of the day (volume picked up dramatically while stock was falling).

I don't like predicting the future, but could we some more selling in teh oil stocks tomorrow morning, based on the sell off into the closing???

I hope so! I was doing one hell of a dance on Monday...