Tuesday, September 19, 2006

Post Three Hundred

Well. The 300th post. Too bad the market didn't provide some fireworks to host this glorious occasion! 300 predictions of imminent doom, 12 of which were actually correct! :-)

Let us update our guide to news and its effect on the markets. We want to stay timely, if nothing else.

EVENT................NET CHANGE ON DOW
Military Coup in Thailand............... -14 (happened today)
Military Coup in Britain............... -23
Complete Collapse of Free World......... -47
Nuclear Strike Against U.S. by Europe...... -69
Incontrovertible Evidence of Approaching Asteroid...... -96
Bernanke picks nose. Eats it................... +235

There's not a lot to say or display today. I'll point out one of my 76 (yep, 76) bearish positions in on AL, which is shaping up lovely:

Oil Services Sector (OIH) was looking a little iffy yesterday as it retraced, but it still is behaving nicely. We want to break the level cited to make this an honest-to-goodness fall-from-grace from the head and shoulders pattern.

Tomorrow's fed announcement should spice things up. Let's hope Ben shows up with a clean nose.


Anonymous said...

"Bernanke picks nose. Eats it................... +235"

This is enough to prove you are the best. Completely agree with what you said.

Leisa said...

Toshi-Tim...congrats on your 300th post. Here's to 300 more...cheers!

Andrew M. said...

Come on Toshi!

You know that Bernanke picking his nose isn't worth as much as Greenspan picking Bernanke's nose....and eating it!!!

Anonymous said...

Your post proves and illustrates the complete and utter complacency in the markets. As things can't get much complacent than this, I am staying with a major down move for the markets. That is the only thing that will shake people/investors out of this bizzarro world. Cash will prove to be KING!

- Trader Fred

Anonymous said...

hahaha. No worries everyone.... Complacency will be the death of the market...smells like 2000. 1987....

I liked a quote yesterday " we are sleepwalking right into a recession". I'm stepping up the homework and would welcome a rally for a couple more days.....so I can pick it up some more.

I'm noticing divergences all over the place.....


Does anyone have any others????::)

I'm out of the market...but will return tomorrow if we get a nasty selloff or if we get a nice rally for a few days.

Chronictown said...

I went with some of Tim's charts. I bought puts on $RUT and $msh. Im gonna hang on, seems to me the market is over bought and ready for a fall. It may go to the moon,who Knows?? Im gonna stay patient and try to wait it out. Should get interesting tomorrow,the pause is baked in,anything different could be the straw that breaks the camels back. Good luck to all! Chris

Anonymous said...

I must be old fashioned, because I am offended by the reference to nose picking and eating. Don't you know that little kids will read that and think it is ok? Don't you know woment that read that will think men are pigs.

I used to read you blog every day, now I cannot recommend or read your blog. So disappointing for a guy that helped develop such good technology. You should be assamed of yourself. Whats next, toilet humor???


Anonymous said...

Just kidding on the last comment. Figured I would be a jack because anything could be offensive to anyone. This is the best blog I read!

My $$$ are in cash. Need some confirmation on either up or down. The last run certainly exceeded my expectations. Have a lot of topped stocks, would like to ensure the dip yesterday was not a small pause. Would look for beat up areas to continue to move the market a little more up.

Anonymous said...

because of the elections money is being injected at every sell off.

Anonymous said...

Another "interesting" day coming up.

WSJ "Ahead of the Tape" covers the crowded long bond trade. As I posted, the time to buy bonds was when the ten year (TNX) was yielding 5.3% and at the top of the range, not at 4.8%. Sez the "net long" position of speculative traders is a record high and if traders misread the Fed or the economy, things could get "messy". I went short bonds yesterday as the ratio between gold and bonds was very extreme and the TLT was bouncing at the top of its BB range. I'm always early in my entry/exits FWIW. Do your own homework.

Noted that gold and oil are interesting long positions here. Wondering if the Amaranth liquidation has put pressure on this area and we'll see a spring back. Again, I hold GDX,GLD,SLV,USGL,PXP. Full disclosure. I pulled my sell stops off this morning. With Fed day and all the crap that takes place, I don't want those a--hole traders gunning my stops.

IBD sez that yesterday was a distribution day for the Naz but it worked its way back, blah,blah,blah. They want you to drink the grape Koolaid. But it's interesting to read their take since the momo traders eat their crap with a scoop shovel. Best part is reviewing their CANSLIM stocks and picking off those near support for a long trade.

I see the big boys are running the gap and trap at the open. See...Larry E's company which hasn't amounted to a fart (same price as in 2002) is gonna power this mkt up?!!! LOL. Might look at putting on some more short positions at the open if the Naz:VXN get more extreme.

Oh, also noted how giddy everyone is about retail. Going into Xmas last year "they" thought retail would stink up the joint but it didn't. Guess they borrowed more against the house. LOL. Anyway, now with gasoline dropping, "they" say Christmas is going to be wonderful. I guess it might be at the dollar stores since Chrysler sez on front page WSJ that sales are awful. No money for big ticket items so we'll buy stocking stuffers so don't look for that plasma tv on Xmas morning, son.

Just a stream of consciousness riff


Michael said...

PS The gold:US Dollar RSI is around 32 so it's not a perfect setup but if it starts to rally, it'd be to resistance around $640 which would be about 10% from here.

Broad mkt is up 8% YTD so 10% is nothing to sneeze. JMO, do your own homework.


smallswinger said...

Here's my theory. The markets discounted the seriousness of the housing collapse in May, approximately three months before it reached "crash" levels.

In other words, the market is prescient and also factored in the September/October decline last May.

So now, here in September, what we're seeing is the 2006 Santa Claus rally!!!

chart trader said...

The way this market is moving up on any pretext, and the reluctance it shows to pull back on major negative news indicates that it is time to be bullish. Yes, you may think it is overbought, but I think it is safer to be on the long side, at least till the elections. Some blogs have put up charts of the FOMC cash injections into the market, so it is evident that they will prop the market up till the elections. This will keep giving wrong signals in technical analysis indicators or patterns. I've reduced my short positions (at a loss, I admit), put in some longs, and kept a larger portion in cash as I am not at all confident on the chart readings. Later, when this madness hopefully subsides (or crashes - a more probably scenerio), I will consider re-entering the market.

Sanjay Sola said...

i'm unsure about this rally. Not many good breakouts. I sold everything and went to cash. volume looked low also. I don't like this rally. it's odd for a rally before the Fed speaks.

Anonymous said...

Interest rates are falling and commodities are crashing. The market is racing up on this 'good news.'

Shouldn't someone, anyone, be asking WHY these things are happening? These are signs of a robust economy? And this is why retailers have become one of the hottest sectors recently?

Sure, you save $10 at the gas pump, but whoops...you just lost your job!

I must have missed the article in the Wall St. Journal announcing that every piece of news is good news, and to be interpretted as such.

I'm about to throw in my bear towell...which must be a sure sign we are very very near the top.

Sanjay Sola said...

be careful here. volumes are very weak.

Anonymous said...

Just my luck, Bush FINALLY appoints a guy who is competant, Hank Paulson...and it is costing me a fortune.

HP obviously knows how to manipulate a market!

Anonymous said...

I agree with your comment on the vlume sanjay sola. I am also very suspicious of the break out on the S&P 500. What is obvious to everyone it deasnt happen. I am in both ways short and long. Long ezpw short pcu.

Costas 1966

Anonymous said...

anon 7:18AM yeah, I saw that theory too. But the volume was crappy all summer and the Naz isn't even to where it was in early May. More like an unwinding of the commodity speculation and a snapback summer rally.

The time to buy was early June when the bulls messed their pants, not now.

Hulbert knocked the Prez election cycle yesterday. Means it'll kick in. (GRIN)

Seriously just looks like things priced for perfection. JMO.


Anonymous said...

From CBS MarketWatch: "Thai coup could be good for economy: analysts"

Yeah, and "War is Peace, Freedom is Slavery, ...." - Orwell was off by only 20 years.

Anonymous said...

"The markets discounted the seriousness of the housing collapse in May?" Based on what!!? Housing stocks had a massive negative divergence a year and a half ago, but they were darlings back then with excessive bullishness, but buyers chose to ignore the technicals in the market. The markets foretold and the masses ignored. When trading you really should ignore seasonality references a guide sure..gospel...NO. If only we can get those friggin' option bears to stop with the puts we could relieve these overbought conditions....and get good risk/reward stock opportunities with a real nice pullback...that would be best!

Michael said...

re: QID

nibbling on some at 61.20

Do your own homework.


Anonymous said...

Great short EXPD today.

Watched the rapid rise today from a low of 43.55 yesterday to high of 46.87 today. Short order at 47 not filled. Normally I don't chase, but had a good feeling about this one, so got in at 46.5 and covered at 45 for a nice, quick profit.

Anonymous said...

15 mins to go gents! --- guess what, the FED will say nothing to disturb the markets!

Anonymous said...

the market is rallying before they even announce...it's getting awfully sure of itself if you ask me

Anonymous said...

The market is less than 100 pts away from an all time high.You have $60 Oil,stable int.rates,negative sentiment,high put/call ratios and higher stock prices with MOMENTUM...How could it not at least go up and hit the all time high here ?!?!

Anonymous said...

CSCO 23.30, SYMC 21, ORCL 18 looks like the old timers are back

Anonymous said...

Acts is on the move coming offt he bottom with volume. I picked up some at 8.59.
Nice bottoming formation