Tuesday, September 26, 2006

The Dow Moans

Sung to the tune (briefly) of "Try to Remember" from The Fantasticks:

Try to remember the kind of September
when bears would rule, and bulls would burrow

Try to remember the kind of September
when stocks would tank, and bonds would follow

Try to remember the kind of September
when you were a wealthy and ursine fellow

Try to remember and if you remember, then follow.....


Well, another session, and the bears got totally owned. Jesus H. Christ. To quote the philosopher C3PO, "Will this never end?" September has completely lost its place in the heart of bears as lovely. This month is totally in the hands of the bulls. We're getting our skins handed to us.

As the media wasted no time in reporting, today brought us within 60 points of the all-time, peak-of-the-Internet bubble high for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Maybe the lifetime high event will happen tomorrow. My gut turns thinking about the jeans-creaming that's about to take place over that one.

The S&P 500 broke out, no doubt about it. This is nasty. Both the $OEX and $SPX have shown indisputable strength lately. Chilling.


If you compare the Russell 2000 with the Dow, you can see how weak the small caps have been lately. I've got puts on the Russell right now. (This is a Left Scale/Right Scale chart shown by the resplendent ProphetCharts, the greatest charting platform in the world.........)


AutoDesk, recommended here recently, took a tumble today - - which is nice considering the push upward in the market. Fib fans are guiding the way with this one.


McKesson looks sharp. I've laid down some Fib fans on this one too. Me likee.


I still feel good about my SHLD puts. This is a fantastic, gorgeous, bullish cup with handle pattern, yes. I know that. But my nose is twitching about this one. There's just something about it, particularly its inability to join the recent bull party. Plus the risk is very limited, since the stop price is so brain-dead obvious.


Better luck tomorrow, ladies and gents. Remember: everyone hates the bears. We're the underdawgs.

81 comments:

smallswinger said...

Tim - I use prophet.net/java charts for a good deal of my analysis, along with stockcharts.com and AmiBroker with live feed.

I have looked over the prophet.net site for this Left Scale / Right Scale feature and cannot find anything. Can I produce this kind of a comparison in prophet.net/java charts?

How do I get this feature to work? Do I need a different membership?

Wanabeabear said...

Hi Tim,

Thanks for the great blog. We enjoy reading it every day. I noticed in today's post you did not mention the end of the quarter "window dressing". Are fund managers responsible for this run-up with their last minute buying to pad the portfolio's? If so, can we expect a nice re-tracement next week as profits are taken?

I'm new to trading and would appreciate you comments on this.

Melody

Tim Knight said...

Melody - I have no clue. I don't put a lot of stock in window dressing. But I just don't know how legitimate it is. To me, this is buying feeding on itself. God knows when it will end. And maybe even He doesn't know. In any just universe, though, our Divine Creator is a bear too. Just a more patient one than me.

Anonymous said...

Hi Tim,

I have become a gr8 fan of your blog. Though missed a good short on OIH :(.. Though am too skeptical about this run.. A question that a bear only can answer..

Which stocks you think are bullish(real sense) right now?

Thanks
Prab

North of 51 said...

Cheers to the Lord being a Patient Bear. So true. Today was a royal kick in the backside. I'm spending the evening re-evaluating my positions that have gone stale. It seems there are alot of people out-there that HAVE TO throw money out long, not matter what the signs. Frrrrrustrating.

Anonymous said...

I've been away for a while here, but the market hasn't changed its tune. Still bullish.

I've pretty much given up hope in trying to predict this market. By all rights, we should be sitting near 10,800 or so on the Dow, but instead, we're going to see all-time highs. Right smack dab in the middle of the most bearish of all months. And right smack dab in the middle of the housing bubble collapse.

Go figure.

Helicopter Ben has been busy lately, it appears. There can be no question whatsoever that "They" simply will not let this market go down. As soon as any minor sellof begins, you can see it clear as day when the money starts to funnel back into the market on the buy side. It's not even funny.

Trying to jump on board now is pretty much futile. If you were "dumb enough" to load up when the Dow was selling off like mad back in May/June, then you're probably raking in the dough right now. But I still hold the same opinion that I have been holding ever since the Dow passed 11,400: if you're buying here, you're buying at the top. Yes, the Dow is more than 2% higher since then, but that doesn't change my opinion at all. I think the market is severely overbought and continues to get more and more overbought every single day.

Even when there is no news to drive it higher, it continues to plow straight upward. I mean, come on, almost a 1% gain on the Dow today on NO NEWS??

Pathetic.

-Tony

Tim Knight said...

"Which stocks you think are bullish(real sense) right now?"

I mentioned the index $XMI looked really bullish several times. That has turned out to be accurate. I actually own a call on HOV, but that's a short term play. I don't see any great buys. Honestly, if I did, I'd buy them. Because in spite of all the bullishness, I just don't see any great stocks to purchase!

plunger said...

"stocks are never too high to start buying and never too low to start selling"

jesse livermore

problem is you got to have a sure grip on where the market is right at that moment. this market just about impossible to tell right now, if this is a bullshit rally as some here think, the fall will be huge when it comes, if not there's gonna be alot of poor bears

plunger said...

anyone here got any opinions on h.s dent and his writings?

Anonymous said...

plunger said...

anyone here got any opinions on h.s dent and his writings?
-----------------------------

You mean other than he's full of crap?

Anonymous said...

Tim-

Thanks for your daily analysis. While not very professional, it is always entertaining! I have made some good $$$ taking the opposite side of your take on the market.

Thanks again!

Sanjay Sola said...

Nasdaq to 2300? no big October decline? no Santa Claus rally this year? market plummet after the Fed officially stops with the rate hike on December 12?

hmm. up and sideways, until Dec. 12, just my guess.

Tim Knight said...

"Thanks for your daily analysis. While not very professional, it is always entertaining! I have made some good $$$ taking the opposite side of your take on the market."

My pleasure. Up yours, jackass.

spinning_head said...

Don't let it get to you Tim. These guys named Anonymous are always SOOO brave, so smart and so mouthy.

and soooo anonymous

they must be really terrific people in real life, no? LOL

keep up the great work..and I love your irreverent style; hell, we bears NEED a good laugh right now

PB said...

anonymous losers keep coming here without even signing their names. They must be part of that bullish herd that buys no matter what. The VIX is all telling, there is "no wall of worry" for this bull to climb. There are no real catalysts out there to push prices higher, only the massive amount of liquidity that needs a place to stay. There is very little healthy 'fear' out there. This market will suck everyone in with it's 'new highs' and then the real fun begins. This year might/will end in the red for the DOW

harleyismydog said...

It's so cheery out there, I'm about to puke. Leaning the wrong way hurts...even though I thought I knew how to read a chart, it slaps me down Mon and Tues so bad, I can't get up.

Anonymous said...

Everyone,and I mean everyone here EXCEPT Tim is annonymous.A little handle does'nt tell us anything about who you really are or your ability to trade intelligently.So unless you want start giving up your REAL name,address,DOB & S.S.#, get over the small shit and start being bothered by something worth bitchin' about,like being short for 1000 pts. STRAIGHT UP !

Chonictown said...

Anonymous, so someone held a gun to your head and made you go short! we are all responsible for our own actions. If you cant run with the big dogs, get the frick off the porch! market tanks oct.17,18th. MHO

Viking said...

It's time to get really really short! I don't think you can be too short right now! QQQXR at $3.40 today - available for darn near intrinsic.

Viking

Brian said...

Hey Tim--

Been a while since my last post. I did great going short back in May, then after so many shorts stopped out I went long and have been for a while now...and sorry to say, i'm loving it...I actually see tons of stocks, as you mentioned before, that are totallly blowing through what should be perfectly bearish patters. But I'm toning back now...though not so sure if the fall is imminent--just look at how the Naz has been leading the market, as well as advance/decline and new high/new low indices. There's real market breadth behind this...who knows what will happen, but after this recent strength i think the odds favor a moderate pullback then new highs. But who knows.

As for mr. anonymous who thinks this isn't a very professional blog...what a tool! You've got the funniest blog on the web.

wincity said...

Tim,

You got a great and professional blog. Don't let the jerks get you down.

Anonymous said...

Lead news story on NBC Nightly News, Today Show, and GMA was the Dow nearing new highs. Instead of the traditional seasonality, wondering if the mkts will top in 30 days from today? I marked it on my calendar. Also marked Oct 13 as a day to examine shorting EEM as the Economist issue of Sept 13 talked about the hot emerging mkts. Potential topping action.

I have some small short positions but I'm more heavily weighted for a precious metals/oil reflex rally and short bonds.

Do your own homework.

bsi87

plunger said...

hey all anonymous posters, sign off or fuck off, i dont care, but quit posting shit if your not at leat gonna put your name on it. as for dipshit who says we're all anonymous, no shit sherlock, but theres a little thing called integrity you obviously have no idea about. maybe not all here have it, but most appear to, and at least if you sign your fuckin name, after a few posts we'll have an idea whether you do or not, most here can admit when their right or wrong about a trade , losing or winning, i myself have mentioned times when i'm gettin killed in puts and have seen others do the same , but i dont come here for advice moron, i enjoy the posts and some of the more intelligent takes on the market found here.
by the way i could live next door to you and you still wouldn't necessarily know shit about me, if you have any principles of your own, or character, you would understand what i'm saying. like bsi always say's "do your own homework" remember tips are for waiters fuckhead, oh wait here's a tip "go the fuck away"

Anonymous said...

A GREAT BIG FUCK-OFF TO ALL THE ANONYMOUS POSTERS WHO DON'T SIGN THEIR POSTS!!!

- Trader Fred

Anonymous said...

you gotta be kiddin' me! some anonymous jerk-off wants us to post our D.O.B. and SS#'s??

You are one moron who shd go and flush his head down a toilet!

- Frank the Tank

Anonymous said...

Wow, such hateful posts!

-Keith

Anonymous said...

the futures are down after the duarable goods order, you think this will put the bears in somewhat of a better mood? I think so. We have new home sales due out at 10am, this could add to the downfall of the markets today if the numbers come in worse than expected.


Trader 2006.

EddieFl said...

Tim, keep up the great work, looking towards the book coming out. I check it out a bit on Amazon


Regrading the markets, We are at a fork in the road, new all time highs whether artificial or not it is crucial. I think new highs usually dont consolidate, they either blast past the old new highs or bounce off as resistance and have a tremendous sell-off..

Either way we are entering a point of focus here. If it goes higher, stay in my longs and maybe add, if it sells off, will get out and get short quickly.

I dont try to forecast, i just react to what my system/indicators tell me. True forecasting is impossible, pulling the trigger and reacting to a reversal is very possible.

Tim Knight said...

I don't mind anonymous posters. My beef with the aforementioned jerk-off was:

+ saying this blog wasn't "professional" - folks, this is a FREE site. By its very nature it isn't professional. I promise you'll get at least what you pay for.

+ saying he's made money by fading my trades. Y'know, if that's true, good for you. Have at it. That's totally OK. But actually saying so requires you to be a real prick. So it bugged me.

plunger said...

he's full of shit tim. you do a great job with tech. analysis, i enjoy the posts, and if he's fading some of these topping charts you've posted he'd better learn how to use stops. oh thats right he doesnt need them, his entire trading strategy is to find free blogs and fade against the bloggers position, what a genius, .

plunger said...

i'm interested too see if these rallys actually continue to prove the theory in the article(finacial sense) you posted a few weeks ago regarding the supercycle bear rally, if this turns out to be the "echo-rally" they predicted things are gonna get real nasty for a long time according to the article. wannabe bears had better be prepared, be careful what you wish for you just might get it.

Anonymous said...

Tim-

That guy's comments were "unprofessional" and spiteful. However, regarding the professionalism, you are correct, it is a FREE site and you do a hell of a job with it. However, it might be a good idea to "tone it down" a bit in your commentary and reaction to combative posters.

The only reason I say this is that sinc you have a book coming out, there may be visitors posting that see it for the first time who are potential buyers of your book and don't understand it is all in good fun- thus, your credibility to them may take a hit and a potential loss of a sale of services or a book (as wrong as they would be- perception matters).

I'm not trying to bash you, just trying to give constructive criticism with this post.

Good luck on your book!

-Keith

Tim Knight said...

I appreciate that, Keith. By and large, I keep an even keel (if that's an expression....) But to me, telling someone who's been getting battered by the market how profitable it's been to fade their trades is nothing short of cruel. So I shoot with both barrels. Salt in wounds isn't cool. Anyhoo. 'Nuf said.

Anonymous said...

damn the market is going higher, this is fuc%ing pathetic...they are doing everything to prop this market higher....


Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

and if housing numbers come in perfect expect a 100+ point gain on the dow and 25+ gain on the nasdaq......

Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

My take on this is that Window Dressing is significant lately. I haven't compiled the data on this, but I seem to remember that most of the big drops recently have been coming at the beginning of each month (which bodes well for bears- almost there)!

Based on an ABC projection, it looks like the S&P and NASDAQ only have about 1-2% upside from here.

I'm staying on the sidelines for now until the risk mitigates somewhat.

-Keith

Anonymous said...

1-2% upside, i hope so, this market is just running like theres nothing wrong with the economy. Dow is up 38 points, im sure the buy programs will stay with the market the rest of the day and most likely close the dow at new highs. After that who the heck knows where it goes. I think we are just a bit overbought, dont you think.....


Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

Trader 2006-

Definitely agree we are overbought. The Slow Stochastics on both a daily and weekly basis are over 90 for both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. I could be wrong, but I don't think that happens too often. When it does, it usually means a downturn is imminent.

-Keith

Anonymous said...

I think a downturn is imminent as well but how much of a downside is anyones guess. I would go long dow 11350-11400 but dont think will see that till at least mid october.

Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

Tim,

Don't worry about stupid posters, I really appreciate the job you do on here.... it makes it easier to connect with others that are like minded.

Unfortunately some get off by insulting others.....

Speaking of which earnings in a week and I'm convinced we are near a top....

Anonymous said...

Does one month of new home sales tell all????

This suggests that the housing market is stabilizing.


Sept. 27 (Bloomberg) -- New home sales in the U.S. unexpectedly rose in August from a three-year low, suggesting the housing market is stabilizing. The median price of new homes fell for the first time since 2003.

Purchases of new homes, which account for about 15 percent of the market, rose 4.1 percent to an annual pace of 1.05 million from a 1.009 million pace in July that was less than previously reported, the Commerce Department said in Washington. Inventories slipped 0.4 percent.

Declining mortgage rates and incentives offered by builders helped spur purchases last month, economists say. The Federal Reserve, after raising its key lending rate 17 times in the two years through June, is seeking to engineer a soft landing for the housing market and the broader economy.

spinning_head said...

You know, we *could* just be making a gigantic double top here in the DJIA...first top in 2000, second 2006. Now, just think how long lasting and far the downfall would be if that turns out to be the case.

or we could break out here and take off on a new leg up (unlikely in my view, but I've been pretty consistantly wrong lately)

Tim...no way to please everyone. It's YOUR blog, it's free, so do WHAT EVER YOU WANT! personally I get a good laugh out of many of your off the wall comments and references..keep it up

Anonymous said...

gigantic double top would sound great right now. Wouldnt mind a 600-1000 point selloff by the end of 2006. Many are calling for 12,000, i have heard even 15,000. How this is possible I have no idea.


Trader 2006.

darcy said...

Tim- this blog is great, don't change anything.

by the tone of the posts lately
THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME TENSION

it's all going to be alright fellow bears

this fucking thing has got the other shoe ready to drop and when it does

THE DOLLAR IS WORTHLESS AND WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE

haha

Anonymous said...

I remember how many worried bulls there were in june and july, i was one of those worried ones trying to find the bottom by going long between 10800 and 11000, i finally did find the bottom and made money on the long side. Now being bearish im not doing so well with most of my inverse funds etc. The thing is I will hold up just like i did when I went long when the dow and nasdaq were falling, the opposite is now happening, a few more months and I believe I will be glad i held through this upswing.


Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

does anyone see it, the dow is taking little steps back only to come back stronger on each upswing.

Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

got this on tradermikes blog, interesting...

http://tickersense.typepad.com/ticker_sense/2006/09/dow_members_the.html




Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

http://tickersense.typepad.com/ticker_sense/2006/09/dow_members_the.html

Anonymous said...

Has anyone noticed the difference in Volumes on the PROSHARES.

as of 11:30am

QID 555,200
QLD 104,700

MZZ 108,000
MVV 37,300

SDS 109,400
SSO 21,200

DXD 40,900
DDM 63,500

DDM only ultrabull showing more volume.

Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

Tim,
First, keep up the great work, we appreciate what you do. I do however, feel a little compelled to remind you the public beating you gave Hurricane5 when HANS and NTRI finally went bearish. I'm sure he was a wounded dog that day as well. In fact, maybe that Anon. comment was his ghost. Personally I don't like to see any of the negative stuff among us small timers. We need to stick together. Personally I've made money on some of your picks and when the market turns bearish I'll be all over your picks again. I wish I would followed you on the nosdive in oil. MED

Anonymous said...

Still waiting patiently for the new high. Why drag it on any longer, 10 points is all they need.

trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

If we tocuh new highs and fall like a rock i will laugh...

Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

Tops are a process, not an event ... as we all are witnessing it right now. All the problems that are out there right now, are not coming home to roost, but they will. It's just a matter of time.

DOW 11,400 seems so far away right now, yet we cld be there in a day or two ... next week!

-Trader Fred

A big bear hug to all the BEARZ out there! Let's go maul some bull ass!

spinning_head said...

I just put on a bear put spread on the DJX.X. These are European style options on the DJIA, which means they are cash settled.

bot the Dec06 117 puts
sold the Dec06 109 puts

net debit of 1.65
max value if DJIA is 10900 or below at exp is 8.00

sorry...I just can't bring myself to believe this rally, I think it's BS

Anonymous said...

today is amazing, they missed the high by about 3 points and then sold it off, i think the market though could easily come back and rally to 11750 if it really wants to....Think they are just letting the bears sweat it out a little more.

Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

re:TLT

Full disclosure: short TLT.

Keep an eye on it. Looks like it's forming a bearish engulfing. Volume is up but may not exceed the daily average.

Precious metals rally (full disclosure:long) but I'm wondering if the rally will hold together, volume is suspect. That said, I think they'll retest recent lows which will be a whale of a buying opportunity.

Looking at BSX and MEE for long positions. Beatup, left at side of the road.

bsi87

Anonymous said...

Looking for 1600 on the NDX by Oct 16th-20th.

trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

here is the 20th attempt today for new highs....9 points away

Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

nasdaq going negative in a few

Trader 2006.

PB said...

Throughout this latest run to new highs, bearish sentiment has outweighed bullish sntmnt.

check out Birinyi, this blog is on his sentiment poll ...

http://tickersense.typepad.com/ticker_sense/

a few good points on there about AAPL (long) and GS (short)

agree with bsi87

Short TLT
long MEE

covrd DIA shrt y' morning, looking to re-short

Anonymous said...

covered your DIA short, you think you will catch the same DIA short price as you did this morning...

trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

Ok, its wakey wakey time.

I'm going shopping for some stuff..... starting with BEN.

This rally was artificial and the risks are now to the downside. The market is not going to 13,000. Think about it earnings are coming up and a recession or slowdown around a corner. People will come to a realization quickly, while people get retailers to buy from them.

The coverage on CNBC is making me sick today.

Start buying fellas....the market has gone up for what 3-4 straight days......but feels like it is falling apart if you look at some stocks.

Anonymous said...

Opps forgot to put my name down. I should just go and get an account.

Andrew755 10:48...

I say bring on the record..I'm buying puts on certain stuff between 3-4pm.

Anonymous said...

andrew isnt that cnbc coverage making you sick, i woke up to hearing becky and joe talk non stop about new highs on the dow, I think anyone who turns on that station should already know the dow is close to breaking new highs. I dont think it needs to be mentioned 5493 times every hour. As for Dow 13,000, If i had to take a wild guess on that I would think early 2008.

Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

When does the last bull wake up and say hey its time to take some profit off the table. I think this is what will lead into a snowball effect and cause the next drop, everyone running to take profits knowing the top may be finally in, give and take 1-2%

Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

This is more like it. We have been in desperate need for some prominent bears to throw in the towel:

Headline:
Dr. Doom turns bullish on U.S. large-cap stocks
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B97386986%2D7ACF%2D443F%2D82BB%2DBB330D5DE2AE%7D&dist=rss&siteid=mktw&rss=1


Maybe the end is getting closer than we think. Cheers to all

Jim

Anonymous said...

Uh oh, Dow turned red for 5 minutes. Can't let that happen- better bring in the pumps.

Can't

lose

control...


-Jana

PB said...

GDP # is coming tomorrow ... that shd make things interesting ... my guess is that it will be not too hot nor too cold, so the mkt will hang in there, maybe close at 11,630 by friday and drop to at least 11,500 next week

Anonymous said...

GOTTA

KEEP IT

IN

THE

GREEN!!!

- no free mkt's here!

Anonymous said...

Calling the Plunge Protection Team..... we are down 5 points on the day.... we need those retailers to buy our shares.

Alert Alert: Market reversing up....

Anonymous said...

GM to day high

I cannot belive this

Anonymous said...

re:DXD. Bought a bit at 64.41. After all the news broadcasts and CNBC, I thought it was worth a speculation, maybe 2-4 pts.

re:USO. Had a buy stop above the past several days' high at 56.28. Again, looking for 2-4 pts.

re:OIH. I'm short but concerned. If it closes above 130, I'm out. If it hits 119, I'll probably take the money.

Do your own homework.

bsi87

Michael said...

re:DBRN

No position but today looks like a blowoff. RTH looks like its outta gas.

bsi87

The D.A. said...

Hi all, 5% of a stocks life is ever outside the bollingers, Look at the OEX one year to back test nice moves. Fibs show a exit about 615ish. Purchased my puts today!!

plunger said...

Looking at BSX and MEE for long positions. Beatup, left at side of the road.

bsi87

funny as hell,

i agree, i'been there awhile, run over a couple of times as well, but still got few months on the expiry of my puts so i'll hang til my stops hitor the market tanks. to be honest i'll take money anyway i can get it, long or short, i just prefer shorting for short term gains, and i try to figure the direction i think it should be heading and trade accordingly, but i sure as hell am lost on this market lately. i dont buy the conspiracy shit but something sure is fishy. the money guys are an exclusive club, but no big conspiracy

smallswinger said...

Didn't see an answer to my question so I'll try this again, Tim:

I use prophet.net/java charts for a good deal of my analysis, along with stockcharts.com and AmiBroker with live feed.

I have looked over the prophet.net site for this Left Scale / Right Scale feature and cannot find anything. Can I produce this kind of a comparison in prophet.net/java charts?

How do I get this feature to work? Do I need a different membership? A little guidance, please. (I guess I could contact support at the web site)

----------

About today -

Damn it! With the Russell 2000 closing up on 9/27, my Small Cap Swing indicator truncated the SHORT signal and switched to LONG. With an early truncation of the SHORT signal this new LONG signal will likely be an early truncation as well.

The new LONG signal is at +17 at the close on 9/27. But I don’t hold much hope for upside potential and I can’t quite believe it, still.

Here are the recent values of my Small Cap Swing Indicator for the last four switches.

. . . . . .Small
. . . . . . Cap . . . . . . . . .Russell
. . . . . .Swing . . . . . . . . .2000 . . . Cumulative
Date . . . Ind . .Signal . . % Chg . . . . % Chg

09/06 . . -19 . .SHORT. ..-2.1%. . . . . -2.1%
09/07 . . -43 . .SHORT. ..-0.8%. . . . . -2.9%
09/08 . . -61 . .SHORT. ..+0.3% . . . . -2.6%
09/11 . . -72 . .SHORT. ..-0.1%. . . . . -2.7%
09/12 . . +18 . .LONG . . +2.4% . . . . +2.4%
09/13 . . +41 . .LONG . . +0.8% . . . . +3.2%
09/14 . . +54 . .LONG . ..-0.4%. . . . . +2.8%
09/15 . . +65 . .LONG . . +0.2% . . . . +3.2%
09/18 . . +70 . .LONG . . +0.0% . . . . +3.2% (short triggered)
09/19 . . -06 . .SHORT. ..-0.5% . . . . -0.5% (& confirmed)
09/20 . . -05 . .SHORT. ..+1.2% . . . .+0.7%
09/21 . . -13 . .SHORT. . .-1.0% . . . ..-0.3%
09/22 . . -37 . .SHORT. . .-1.2% . . . ..-1.5%
09/25 . . -43 . .SHORT. . .+1.2% . . . ..-0.3%
09/26 . . -39 . .SHORT. . .+0.3% . . . ..-0.0% (long triggered)
09/27 . . +17 . .LONG . . . +0.4% . . . . +0.4% (& confirmed)

Normal LONG target: . . +65 to +75 (max: +95)
Normal SHORT target: . -65 to -75 (max: -107)

I remain 100% invested in SHORT positions as Friday’s close, 9/15/2006, having little faith in the upside potential of the newest LONG signal.

Anonymous said...

Any more short ideas ?? All the shorts I had since june are TOAST.

Bear that is BROKE. Well, You can skip the short Ideas, Im out of money.

Anonymous said...

Plunger

I think you're seeing performance anxiety. Mkt moves up a bit and everyone jumps on it. Tough part IMO is stuff is nontrending and just about the time you take a position, you get plowed under. I'm trading much smaller positions.

bsi87

plunger said...

just about right bsi87, seems like cant find set-ups i feel strongly about or worried about economic factors so about time i feel confident in the set -up , load up and BAM, another train.

thanks for the input, i been cutting back as well trying to stifle the urge to short alot of set-ups til im sure about em', a few longs look good but everything seems too oversold right now,

stockshaker said...

Ok, we all can read the graphs, and see things are up. thats not the point, what the point is, is WHEN will things get back to normal? Im not here to say, I don't understand why its going up, but WHEN will things take a breather. Now I personally don't like looking at historical graphs, and seeing how I can compare it to current day settings (as what has happened in the past can't be used for future) but when history repeats in such a short time duration, it makes for a really eerie comparison.

Let me explain.

Take a look at the tight channeling that has happened since mid-july to now, and look at the tight channelling that occured between feb 06 to may 06.

Now, whoop-te-do, but what is eerie is the macd divergence - the characteristic pattern is almost identical to what is happening now.

And THAT, my friends, is eerie.

I'm still holding onto puts, just becuase I thought the pullback would happen last week (not just over two days).

Today, we can see the sellers come into play, slightly. That wasn't the case yesterday, or the day before. So we can't just justify that tomorrow will be a sellers delight of a day, because as all of us know, a down day is just cancelled by more buying - sucks. But things will finally catch up, it can't go up forever.

The volume has picked up incredibly during the last part of this rally, which should really lose many of followers of the "low volume ... don't trust this rally" fanclub.

I think if you are still holding on to puts, (IF YOU CAN bear this pain - yes the pun was intended), maybe hold on to them a little bit longer, I KNOW its making you pull your hair out, but if theres a pullback, its going to be swift, and its going to be fierce - there are divergences everywhere. Its not IF a pullback will happen, but WHEN - and this latter part of the rally has a fingerprint of what happened in May.

Im not saying its going to tank like it did, but wtih so much bullishness, profit taking WILL happen.

I'm holding onto my withering puts for the short term, before switching back to longs when evidence of further bullishness prevails (as it has so far).

I DID read that this week is the last week prior to earnings - and that could be a reason to this craziness - but I am not sure, as I don't know the theory/understanding of what actually happens during these last weeks...

Tim Knight said...

"I have looked over the prophet.net site for this Left Scale / Right Scale feature and cannot find anything. Can I produce this kind of a comparison in prophet.net/java charts?"

It's not in JavaCharts. It's in ProphetCharts, only available on the new investor toolbox and - hopefully - available as a premium $$$ product on Prophet.net later.