Looking Back at 2006 via TraderTim

There are just a couple of business days left in 2006. I, for one, will be happy to put this year behind me. I just skimmed all my posts for the year (and I did a lot of writing this year.......it would easily fill a book) and the recurring themes seem to be (a) frustration and (b) boredom. Not good.

There is, however, some good stuff in the bowels of this blog. Today I wanted to review some of my "hits" and "misses" for 2006, and tomorrow I'm going to publish a Best of the Blog for your enjoyment.

I'm the sort of guy who, if you have good news and bad news to tell me, I always want to hear the bad news first. So let's look at my misses for this year (on the whole, these are just hyperlinks to the blog entry - I suggest you right-click on them and just open the article into a new tab or new window so you don't lose this list):

The Misses

NTRI is doomed! - NutriSystem has done quite well this year, in fact. An amazing stock.

My overall bearishness - well, my Lord, you can find this in almost every post! But a couple of examples are here and here.

Cult of the Bear - a link to the fascinating three-part article predicting 6,800 on the Dow in 2006 (umm, well, the Dow is about twice that level).

Making too much of losses early in the year - but, wow, wouldn't you love to see a GLOBEX screen like that one again?

Shorting OIH prematurely

Premature prediction as to the demise of HANS - it went much higher before it finally stumbled.

The poo-pooing of Barron's prediction for Dow 12,000 - As you know, it's beat that by a wide margin already.

OK, so I'm an idiot, right? Well, only half-right. I had some hits too. Let's take a look back:

The Hits

Predicting GOOG would sink to $330 - OK, I get to gloat on this a bit. The stock bottomed at $331.55. This was an amazing call. Were that there were more like it!

MTH short - a beautiful head and shoulders pattern

ASYT buy, with a target of $7.50 - it actually climbed even higher, to above $11.

Bullish buy list - the average gain on this list is over 25% now. Maybe I should do more bullish posts, eh?

GOOG as a buy - the stock is up nearly double since this post.

COF short suggestion

PNRA short suggestion

BLUD long suggestion

I'm honestly not trying to get away with rehashing old material. It's instructive to look back. I hope you enjoy reviewing some of these old posts, even though they only show me in a semi-favorable light!

I'll be back tomorrow with my Best of the Blog list.

Electile Dysfunction

This is a really dangerous time for us bears. All eyes are on the election right now. Setting aside whether the Dems or the Reps prevail, the fact is that if the market breaths a sigh of relief on Wednesday morning (for whatever reason), there are important "lines in the sand" which could be taken out by the bulls. If this happens, I'm ready to hang up my bearish hat until probably mid-January of next year (and even then I would consider whether to don it again or not).

The NASDAQ Composite represents this danger well. Look how close it is to pushing above the double top it has made over the past several months.


The Russell 2000 also shows this danger, but in a different way. Look at the downward-pointing arrow. If the $RUT pushes above this level (and it could easily be tomorrow or Wednesday), there's going to be a very hefty stake pushed through the bear's heart for the rest of the year.


If the market does push higher, the $SOX is probably not a bad place to look for calls. It seems to have found a short-term bottom.

The $XAU (gold and silver), on the other hand, might be a nice short play. I've circled what seems to be a possible turning point. I've got puts on this index right now.


One stock which shows just how hefty the bull run has been in mega-investor Warren Buffett's BRK.A, which now trades well over $100,000 per share!


I've mentioned Fluor (FLR) before as another good bearish pattern, but it merits repeating.


And let's bow our heads for a moment and remember departed reader hurricane5, who held us HANS as one of the "one decision" stocks to own. This poor beverage stock has lost 50% of its value. It had an unbeliveable run, but you just knew this thing couldn't sustain itself.


In closing, take a look at LEH. This stock is so typical of what I see right now. A double top which could be taken out and blow all the bears away. Or, if it weakens anew, could be a fantastic short to have. But this election isn't going to clear up until Wednesday. Until then, we can only wait and see.

Another Go-Nowhere Session

Snore. I think the last time the market had any real direction was several years ago. This is just a snoozer. I guess we are in yet another wait-for-the-Fed situation (they announce Wednesday at 2:15 EST).

Old hurricane5 favorite HANS continues to look nice as a long-term short play, which has worked its way back up to its fan line.


Same with hurricane5 favorite NTRI.


I retract my earlier statement that GOOG was stale. It seems to have some life in it again, although it's hardly the dynamo it used to be. Below is its entire history since the IPO.


I posted earlier today about gold and oil, so you might want to take a look. Until tomorrow, ta-ta........