Wednesday, October 11, 2006

I, For One, Welcome Our New Bull Overlords

A rare morning post. Trying to shake off the blahs.

I got a nice surprise this morning when one of my put positions, Legg Mason, fell over $16 right at the open. Disappointing earnings. May many other companies follow suit! This chart is a nice example of a price breaking its trendline, doing a full retrace (noted with a circle here), and then taking a swan dive. Love it.


I'm in a ton of different positions - almost all of them puts, with a smattering of energy-oriented longs (by means of call positions). Capital One (COF) is one of the puts. Looks like a clean retracement to a broken inverted saucer.


Panera (PNRA) is still on my list to take a tumble. My brother actually owns one of these franchises, so I've got nothing against the company. I just like the chart.

24 comments:

walter said...

Tim,

Check out one of your earlier suggestions...

UBB

One day island reversal?

Also, missed MON, hoping for retrace...

walter said...

MON retrace to underside of one of fib fan lines going back to 3/12/2003?

Ashok said...

sold all OIHVF @ 7....profit of 0.90

now just long GOOGLE....

Andrew755 said...

Good job on LM. I got some movement from BEN this morning.... oh it broke its trendline yesterday and now looks to be rebounding....I may get back in on the rise.

THis market is crazy...... everything may go green. Don't worry though, earnings will kill the dip buyers....

Denver_Investor said...

More of the same today. Every 20 to 30 minutes a program comes into the market pegging the TICK at +1000 to +1200 range. Very little time spent in minus territory at all. The buying is still going on with a vengence.

Even AA tanking, LM tanking and some others has no effect.

North Korea threatening war...not to worry...isn't that Kim a joker? this market worries about NOTHING.

Oh, and don't forget to pick up some home building stocks...those 50% declines in sales will turn around any day now. jeesh...

walter said...

BAM showing big time weakness too... finally

Nimesh said...

wth, market will end in green it seems like

J said...

Is this one hell of strange markets, there is no 10 cents dip allowed, every dip is brouglt with hand over fists on this aging bull cycle........absolutly no fear exist......

AT said...

Amazing! From -40 at one point, they have lifted it to green. Earning misses, no problem. North Korean nukes, no problem. Options scandals, no problem. Housing crash, no problem. Consumer debt, no problem. The economy is doing fine, can't you see?

All signals from indicators are countered. Resistance no longer matters.

Just gotta keep oil down and the markets up, so the repubs can win the election.

Play their game folks, buy the dips, sell in the rally.

Sanjay Sola said...

even though the market is going up, there are only a handful of stocks that are moving to the upside.
the market is very choppy. this is not a fun market to be in.

Sanjay Sola said...

oil is at $58.12 now.

will tomorrow's inventory numbers bring it down even more?

J said...

hoping for all bull sites buy this dip..... this powerfull........

Andrew755 said...

Wow, this is interesting.....

On a down day with loads of bad news...plane hitting building, fed saying it is scared of rising inflation, bad earnings, backdating.......Oil down....

This market looks like it can't go down......

I think it is going to plunge in the next month. Complacency. We are at the levels of complacency that there will be a quick decline......because nobody wants to sell.

specul8 said...

LM closed at low for the day. Looks like it has a little more room to fall tomorrow.

AT said...

Remember, Uncle Ben wants to give you money. But despite his famous appellation, he can't chopper over your house and toss it to you, so he's feeding it into the market. Take advantage of it. Buy the dips. Sell the rallies. Every day. The Dow will go over 12000, come what may. All bad news will roll off like water off a duck's back. Come join the party. But its only till the elections. After that, watch out.

J said...

helicopter run into apartment building and cause financial markets to sell off!!!!! lol what a spin...... but hey, listen to CNBC and buy da dip.....

ctkwtk said...

Enjoy your site. Can you please tell me why iwm, qqqq, spy, dia, ewj, etc. all peaked at exactly 31:11 PM and all bottomed at exactly 14.53 PM? Program? Machine trading? Plunge protection team? I don't get it.

ctkwtk said...

Sorry, make that 13:11 PM.

AT said...

ctkwtk
I think a lot of intitutions have program trading, especially index-tracking funds. That's why you would see rise and fall, or peaks and bottoms in many indexes and stocks at the same time.

smallswinger said...

My Small Cap Swing indicator switched to SHORT today, October 11. The LONG signal ended at +70 on last night’s close (October 10th). This new SHORT signal is at -6 as of October 11 close.

Here are the recent values of my Small Cap Swing Indicator for the last four or five switches.

. . . . . .Small
. . . . . . Cap . . . . . . . . .Russell
. . . . . .Swing . . . . . . . . .2000 . . . Cumulative
Date . . . Ind . .Signal . . % Chg . . . . % Chg

09/12 . . +18 . .LONG . . +2.4% . . . . +2.4%(short-covering)
09/13 . . +41 . .LONG . . +0.8% . . . . +3.2%
09/14 . . +54 . .LONG . ..-0.4%. . . . . +2.8%
09/15 . . +65 . .LONG . . +0.2% . . . . +3.2%
09/18 . . +70 . .LONG . . +0.0% . . . . +3.2% (short triggered)
09/19 . . -06 . .SHORT. ..-0.5% . . . . -0.5% (& confirmed)
09/20 . . -05 . .SHORT. ..+1.2% . . . .+0.7%
09/21 . . -13 . .SHORT. . .-1.0% . . . ..-0.3%
09/22 . . -37 . .SHORT. . .-1.2% . . . ..-1.5%
09/25 . . -43 . .SHORT. . .+1.2% . . . ..-0.3%
09/26 . . -39 . .SHORT. . .+0.4% . . . ..+0.1% (long triggered)
09/27 . . +17 . .LONG . . . +0.4% . . . . +0.4% (& confirmed)
09/28 . . -19 . .SHORT. . .-0.4% . . . . -0.4% (whipsaw short)
09/29 . . -25 . .SHORT. . .-0.6% . . . . -1.0%
10/02 . . -48 . .SHORT. . .-1.5% . . . . -2.1%
10/03 . . -64 . .SHORT. . .-0.1% . . . . -2.2%
10/04 . . -49 . .SHORT. . .+2.1% . . . . -0.1%(short-covering)
10/05 . . +40 . .LONG . . . +1.3% . . . . +1.3%(whipsaw long)
10/06 . . +54 . .LONG . . . -0.4% . . . . +0.9%
10/09 . . +66 . .LONG . . . +0.6% . . . . +1.5%
10/10 . . +70 . .LONG . . . +0.2% . . . . +1.7%
10/11 . . -06 . .SHORT. . .-0.6% . . . . -0.6%(new signal)
10/12 . . +?? . .SHORT . . .+?.?% . Intraday @ 12:00noon ET

Normal LONG target: . . +65 to +75 (max: +95)
Normal SHORT target: . -65 to -75 (max: -107)

I remain 100% invested in SHORT small cap positions as of Friday’s close, 9/15/2006 (RUT=729.35 to 741.71, on 10/11, a +1.7% advance). I haven’t lost much since going fully SHORT, but the vaporization of gains on 10/4 and 10/5 really hurts.

Based on high stochastics / RSI levels and prices as resistance lines on several chart patterns, I expect this SHORT to last a little longer, hopefully enough to bring my current SHORT trades into the black.

AT said...

Interesting article, showing how high the public level of short-selling is, compared to the professionals. Are we bears now part of the herd (the dumb money)? Are the Wall Street pros laughing at us? Judging by the experience of the last 6 months, it would seem so.

http://www.wallstreetcourier.com/pressroom4-1.htm

Andrew755 said...

LRCX is backing off in AH's......something is up. Traded up to $51...after the bell....I have a bad feeling about this market here.....

chanon said...

DOW 12000 in near distant future, couple more of strong earning reports needed....October rally

DOW

Health Affairs said...

Just checking in to see how Tim's magic shorts and puts are doing. Shorts working today?