Tuesday, October 10, 2006

The Grind

Another economy riddled with holes. Another market high. So it goes, so it goes.

I'm afraid as I lose interest in this market you're going to see shorter and less fervent blog entries. When the market's in a tailspin, we have a great time in here. As it is now, the market is a grind, and I'm really sick of it.

Few graphs capture the boredom of the market (for the bears, at least) like the VIX. It's like a terminally ill patient drifting off into a permanent sleep.



I like Fibonacci drawings, and some charts tend to be more 'Fib Friendly' than others. Take MCK for example. The fans seem to do nicely here.


SHLD, which I've been watching a long time, broke above a gorgeous cup with handle pattern. Umm, obviously not a great short idea now. This is just about picture perfect.


I'm sorry it's not a more interesting post today. I don't have much to say except that I sure miss June and early July. It's so bad, in fact, I think this is the first time I've ever done a post before the market even closed!

18 comments:

Leisa said...

Tim, I grimaced on your behalf today in looking at SHLD. I'll do a little coulda, woulda, shoulda here. I totally mismanaged an OS position. I bought some puts, made $2K and let it fritter away to a $200 gain. But at least I had sense enough to get out. I sensed strength coming. I also had some puts on HWAY...the news on that one not good and I figured that given their August warning that the proposed merger deal would not go through. Though I had a gain, I should have held longer for a multiple rather than a percentage gain. And HYDL--had a big drop. I looked at the chart carefully and figured it would have a nice bounce. I'm pretty familiar with that sector. It did, but I didn't participate. The red in my short positions has sapped my confidence.

Tim Knight said...

Well, it was dumb on my part. I even said when I was posting earlier charts of SHLD that it was a very bullish pattern. And so - duh - it went up! No idea what I was thinking (shaking head....)

Jana said...

I am still clinging to the hope of all hopes bsi posted a little less than a month ago about the market top being one month after some headline (??) I marked it on my calendar- Oct 13th.

Fingers crossed!

stockshaker said...

Tomorrow Alcoa is going to drop down the markets (-10% after hours), but that would make a very nice entry price on many commodities.

I'll be looking to stock up on the bullish ones that will be affected by a market wide falldown.

stockshaker said...

holy crap! Only down 6% now! Maybe other people are thinking the same way I am.

dmuchtar said...

Hi Tim and great blog. What do you think of XAU or gold in general? Should I call or put? I think if I remember correctly, you said that a bounce in gold is close by. I think its forming a weird descending triangle and some downside is most probable especially considering the strengthening of the US dollar and the ho hum reaction to mondays nuke test but a recovery is also possible I admit. Anyone else here willing to share their views on gold? Thanks a bunch!

Tim Knight said...

I am staying totally away from XAU right now. It's plopped right onto a Fib retracement level, which just *happens* to also be the neckline to a monster Head and Shoulders pattern. So.....it could go down a lot....or up a lot! Which I guess means an options strategy more complex than just buying a put or a call might make sense!

Andrew755 said...

Hi guys,

This market is absolutely complacent. I wouldn't touch too many stocks here......it is deadly stuff. Stocks will sell off unless they report blow out numbers... because their valuations cannot be supported with such crappy earnings.

I'm finally banging the charts again..... It is unbelievable how we can't even have ONE DOWN DAY MORE THEN 40 POINTS DOWN. But one day we will wake up and the dip buyers will be gone, because earnings will stink so badly.

I'm going to be a buyers of oils/drillers.... once they report their bad number. I really love PBR. These stocks have been pummeled but I want one more real washout, I think bad earnings will clear out the sellers on those....

There is no leadership in this market...... I'm looking to get involved in this market. But its like fundamentals, rationality mean nothing.

specul8 said...

Tim,

I just want to bring your attention to some problems with the new Investools Toolbox.

I called tech support, but rep was new and not very familiar with the way power prosearch works.

Try this simple search:

Background - All US Stocks Only
Backround - Optionable Stocks
Rel Price Performance 1 Day -
between 0 and 92.

Basically, I'm looking for potential bearish plays by searching for stocks that took an 8% haircut on any given day ( I run this every day).

The results on the new toolbox are patently erroneous.

Try it on both.

I noticed other problems with prosearch as well.

Who can I speak to about this?

P.S. - Your blog is one of the best out there. Keep up the good work.

Michael

Dougo said...

Timing! It's all about timing. Well all the Bears have all been shot and the Bulls are sitting back having a smoke after a good 'breeding' session, now what?
I liked your thoughts on the simularities to the fall of 1972. Having trouble believing things are going to last till January though, in the new age of an instant market things happen so much faster. Or do they? People don't change I guess.
I see bear capitulation. What else do we need to know?
SHLD was already acting funny the first 3 days of October, but todays move is simply out to lunch. Soon it will sink in what the housing colapse really means. Perhaps after Christmas when all those Visa bills come due....

Doug

Ashok said...

Holding GOOG from 415...bot more today at 430.

Sold OIHVE at 3.40...for a loss.
Bot OIHVF at 6.10....expires friday next week....still see oil lower...

Tim,

Tried posting here on several occasions during the day...kept asking me for my GOOGLE account..
??? Maybe u cud shed some light...

davrowe said...

Cheer up Tim,

Your... and our day will come again. If you don't let the other kids play with the nice toys in the sand box some times, they will not want to play. We need them to play our fun games.

Traderdave

bsi87 said...

re:GOOG. Reversal on "great" news. Short limit order at 434.71. Buy to cover above the HOD.

re:Opportunities. Looks like commodities are nearing end of what appears to be a correction. MEE/TIE/HES were great performers over past few days. As Kosmo sez, there's a bull mkt somewhere. Looking at AL at 38.07.

re:LEN. 6/12 month RSI is 30. Looks interesting around 44 bucks.

re:NEM. On my watch list.

good trading everyone

bsi87

bsi87 said...

re:LM

Not interested in buying today but tomorrow somewhere between 85 and 81.

After they get done puking.

bsi87

oldsoothsayer said...

As for the market in general, the late development shows that we are definitely in a strong bullish market. HOWEVER, Careful! we are right now in a very dangerous phase of the cycles (day and week).
The weekly and daily cycles have reached the upper limits of their respective range (both of them);
which means that it has to give up either a bit (more probable) or a LOT as it sometimes happens(crashes). This is a very dangerous zone.
Do bear in mind that the weekly cycle has a lower range at about minus 25% of the current market price (S&P500).
A crash could definitely drive us there. This would not however put us in a bear market. It would only be a sharp correction within a VERY STRONG bullish trend (yearly and weekly cycle (even daily cycle right now)).
This bullish trend should last for the next two years for the least. Believe it or not?

http://spxhz.spaces.live.com/oldsoothsayer/

bsi87 said...

KGC coming into view. 11.23 buy limit order.

bsi87 said...

long KGC at 11.23.

toober said...

PLANE CRASH! Sell Sell Sell Put Put Put