Looking Back at 2006 via TraderTim
There are just a couple of business days left in 2006. I, for one, will be happy to put this year behind me. I just skimmed all my posts for the year (and I did a lot of writing this year.......it would easily fill a book) and the recurring themes seem to be (a) frustration and (b) boredom. Not good.
There is, however, some good stuff in the bowels of this blog. Today I wanted to review some of my "hits" and "misses" for 2006, and tomorrow I'm going to publish a Best of the Blog for your enjoyment.
I'm the sort of guy who, if you have good news and bad news to tell me, I always want to hear the bad news first. So let's look at my misses for this year (on the whole, these are just hyperlinks to the blog entry - I suggest you right-click on them and just open the article into a new tab or new window so you don't lose this list):
The Misses
NTRI is doomed! - NutriSystem has done quite well this year, in fact. An amazing stock.
My overall bearishness - well, my Lord, you can find this in almost every post! But a couple of examples are here and here.
Cult of the Bear - a link to the fascinating three-part article predicting 6,800 on the Dow in 2006 (umm, well, the Dow is about twice that level).
Making too much of losses early in the year - but, wow, wouldn't you love to see a GLOBEX screen like that one again?
Shorting OIH prematurely
Premature prediction as to the demise of HANS - it went much higher before it finally stumbled.
The poo-pooing of Barron's prediction for Dow 12,000 - As you know, it's beat that by a wide margin already.
OK, so I'm an idiot, right? Well, only half-right. I had some hits too. Let's take a look back:
The Hits
Predicting GOOG would sink to $330 - OK, I get to gloat on this a bit. The stock bottomed at $331.55. This was an amazing call. Were that there were more like it!
MTH short - a beautiful head and shoulders pattern
ASYT buy, with a target of $7.50 - it actually climbed even higher, to above $11.
Bullish buy list - the average gain on this list is over 25% now. Maybe I should do more bullish posts, eh?
GOOG as a buy - the stock is up nearly double since this post.
COF short suggestion
PNRA short suggestion
BLUD long suggestion
I'm honestly not trying to get away with rehashing old material. It's instructive to look back. I hope you enjoy reviewing some of these old posts, even though they only show me in a semi-favorable light!
I'll be back tomorrow with my Best of the Blog list.
9 comments:
Tim, the first set says 'The Hits', I think you meant 'The Misses' :-)
Thanks for an excellent blog. I have learnt a lot from this blog.
-JC
Tim
You win some, you lose some. Keep on jabbering away, we all have a lot to learn. Good luck in 2007 and Happy New Year! Looking forward to your book http://lauristonletter.blogspot.com/
Tim - That should be "hammering", obviously not "jabbering". My fingers are all over the place today. Anyway, look forward to your posts in 2007 http://lauristonletter.blogspot.com/
Tim I bet that if you start calling for DOW 14873, Nasdaq 3500 and GOOG to 750 by the end of 2007 we could get a mini bear market going.
Many are calling for dow 13,000, 14,000 and even 15,000 by the end of 2007. I have seen the strength in some of these international markets and it makes me think there is no stop to this rally. Every talking head on cnbc is more positive than the next, one calling for interest rate cuts by 2007 and the others saying the housing market has bottomed. IF the housing market has bottomed and inflation steady these markets could easily keep running like they did these last 6 months. Eventually there will be a slowdown in corporate profits when that happens is anyones guess.
The bear has suffered a big loss for 2006, who would have thought that July would have marked the bottom. We are nearing a 4 year bull market, maybe 2007 the bear takes over.
Trader 2006.
Trader Tim: Blog of the Year!!
Thanks.
Anybody know what the heck happened to BEARX today?
Down almost -3% in one day --- huge daily move for a mutual fund!
I'm calling the fund first thing in the a.m.!
ACCELERATION BANDS
I purchased MetaStockPro the other day, then created an Acceleration Bands Indicator by cutting and pasting the Acceleration Bands formula into the Indicator dialog box.
I applied the Upper Acceleration Band Indicator to the stocks in Tim's post.
>Premature prediction as to the demise of HANS - it went much higher before it finally stumbled.
HANS crossed above its Upper Acceleration Band in the second half of February. It briefly closed below the band in the end of April, then in early May it gapped up. It did not close below the band until the second half of May.
>ASYT buy, with a target of $7.50 - it actually climbed even higher, to above $11.
ASYT really fits the Acceleration Bands criteria from January to March.
Here are 2 articles on Acceleration Bands:
http://www.bigtrends.com/document.jsp?documentid=59
http://www.bigtrends.com/document.jsp?documentid=869
cwo
Its funny watching the hedgies working the smaller caps to keep 'em aloft. A few hundred shares of levitation brings in some serious coin at 20% of profits. I expect a reckoning for small caps next week. Jeff
BEARX end-of-year distribution on 12/28
BEARX NAV was down -0.16 on the day
Distribution = 0.19, payable 12/29
Therefore, BEARX actually up +0.03 after the distribution
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