Thursday, December 28, 2006

Best of the Blog - 2006 Edition

It was cold comfort that the market fell today (after reaching lifetime intraday highs). 2006 sucked out loud for the bears. May a merciful God grant us catastrophe in 2007.

Anyway, I took the time to go through this year's hundreds of postings to offer up what I think is a "Best Of This Blog." I hope you enjoy it........

The markets will be closed Monday due to New Year's and will be closed Tuesday due to President Ford's funeral. I will therefore not do a new posting until Wednesday evening.

Happy New Year, everybody!


Anonymous said...


I like reading and learning from your blog.
Have a happy new year and be healthy.


Anonymous said...

I believe the bull market is finally over and a worldwide bear market will commence next year. The reason being that the inflation is everywhere and the Fed will be forced to raise interest rate to soak up all the liquidity. This is all in the card because the Fed has printed way too much money.

Da Bear

Lauriston said...


Happy New Year. Reading your "How Trends End", I get the feeling we are there again, right there at that sweet spot where the puts start working. I made some on puts today, but I will be back next week to load up proper. You can follow my trades live at

Let's see what we get from the Middle East this long weekend and how it affects oil and the equity markets!

marty said...

have happy holidays and bearish new year. I want
to thank you for your blog . I look forward to your
post . I have your book on order.

EddieFl said...


HAve a great New Year, see you in 2007..

to all of you HAppy Holidays and a prosperous new year>>>

Anonymous said...

Bears will get sliced and diced!!!

Barry Ritzholtz going down.

Anonymous said...

Hey Tim,

What is your average annual return? I don't want to be misled to the slaughter house if you're getting hit by this bull market.

thanks man.

Anonymous said...

He doesnot mention his annual return this year because it is probably negative double digits.

Anonymous said...

Goldilocks Meets the Bear as US Stocks Face a Correction

With equity valuations at all-time highs, and CNBC’s Larry Kudlow and others crowing about the “Goldilocks” economy (neither too hot nor too cold), we are now inclined to predict that a bear market, or at very least a correction in equities may very well be upon us. As former US Treasury Secretary and former Harvard University President Lawrence H. Summers recently pointed out in an article published in the Los Angeles Times, “those who take comfort from the markets’ comfort should bear in mind that the markets hardly ever predict serious disruption. Historically, the moments of greatest complacency have been the moments of greatest danger.”

Among the possible causes of a market correction is the US dollar, which has seen sizeable downward movement against the Euro in the last several months as the US Federal Reserve has held short term interest rates firm, while the European Central Bank will likely continue to raise benchmark rates for the Eurozone. If Asian banks and others continue to diversify away from dollar assets, and US rates of inflation continue to exceed the Fed’s level of comfort, we may actually see a hike in US rates to prevent a rout on the greenback. What’s more, with record levels of US debt, oil prices still a concern, and the impact of the housing market slowdown an open question, the time seems right for a correction.

So you heard it here first: Here Comes the Bear. Stocks are too expensive and sentiment is tilted too much toward the bullish side.

EddieFl said...

Anonymous 8:03 p.m., ,,,, you probably could not live long enought to be even 1/4 as successfull as Tim is, take my word on that one.

Anon 1:59p.m.,..... "time seems right for a correction", yes maybe because of all the economic mumbo jumbo or maybe just because it has gone straight up for 6 months. either way I agree we are due for a nice sell-off.

For what it is worth
I'm short BSC and GS with (puts.)

Anonymous said...

Great Blog Mr successful eddiefl. You are probably in the red also and pissed that you missed the bull run. Good luck with your worthless puts.

Anonymous said...

I will predict that the market ends 2007 up 30% for S and P index. Everyone I associate with is really bullish about these historic highs and will deploy assets from real estate gains in January. Are the bears here going to be ok.

Anonymous said...

Maybe in 2000-2003 the shorts make seriously money, but i just don't see how they make money from 2003-2006. It just seems like climbing the hills.

Why can't we run with the bulls and then the bears later. Why do we have to go against the bulls when they are ripping the bears apart.

Barry Ritzholtz call for Dow 6000 in 2006 was such an abysmal failure. That must've hurt.

Why do we have to be permabears? Can't we run with both?

just my 2 cents

Tim Knight said...

One must wonder why anonymous posters are such turds. Ah, well. I'll see everyone here tomorrow after the first market day of 2007. Should be interesting, considering how the GLOBEX is up so huge right now (late night on 1/2).

Leisa said...


HYDL has delivered nicely for you.

EddieFl said...

Anon: 405p.m.,

Ding dong, if you look at the archives from July 2006, i mentioned I was going long-heavy, and in following posts, was maintaining my long position.

In late Nov, I called it when i sold my long position in Late Novemeber.

so do your homework bonehead and make a trade and stick to it.