Tuesday, August 22, 2006

Socionomics and Frank Quattrone

For those who didn't notice, Frank Quattrone basically got a walk for whatever his sins of the past may have been. I think fans of socionomics may seen a bit of a pattern here. When the market was insane and sky-high, Quattrone was a hero. When the market took a huge dump, he was a villain.

Indeed, do you want to know when his trial was? That's right - October 2003- the bottom of the market.

Now that the market is - yep - insane and sky-high again, society gives him a walk. Coincidence? I think not.

Also, a tip of the hat to The Kirk Report. I appreciate the mention!


Anonymous said...

I thought this quote was priceless:

"When billions of dollars are at stake nothing happens by co-incidence." - Bill Cara

Wow. Spot on.

darcy said...

Hi Tim

by this post, can I assume you are a follower of socionomics and if so, do you use the signals to help with you outlook

also the WP

Tim Knight said...

I know just enough about socionomics to make me dangerous. Honestly, I just know a little, and I thought the correlation of Quattrone and the market was interesting. Plus I think he looks goofy with that stupid moustache.

Anonymous said...

Whatever happened to Ken Lay and the hundreds of millions (if not billions) he owes people? Just thought I'd ask since he's been forgotten so fast. Another sign of complacency? Yup, this market will have it's balls cooked for breakfast!


Hbarr said...

When they get down to pumping crap like XMSR they're running out of inventory to unload.

Anonymous said...

Ken Lay deserved to go to jail....he ruined many lives including mine.

Tim Knight said...

"Whatever happened to Ken Lay"

He's a rotting, maggot-infested corpse. Or didn't you hear? Anyway, all the burden is on Skilling now.

Remember, everything eventually goes to the lawyers. It's the law of the land.

Anonymous said...

Thank you, Moskow!

Anonymous said...

Amazing how resistant the market is - even after two Fed heads warning of rate hikes, it isn't sinking much. Bulls will be bulls!

Anonymous said...

They will be bringing out the pumping machines soon, for the end of day pump and window dressing.

smallswinger said...

First post:

I have been lurking for a couple of months and enjoy this blog immensely. I try to monitor and play the small cap short-term swings using ProFunds, Direxion, Proshares, Rydex, funds/etfs.

I have created a small cap swing indicator. I take intra-week stochastics, daily stochastics, as well as the Prophet.net "Stochastic Momentum Indicator" and add several small cap stochastics together to create an "average" (Yes I am including weekly and daily stochastics together in the calculation).

I track the average and create daily delta differences, which I also accummulate over a short term swing period.

Invariably the accumulated delta values are similar for very many swing periods and the delta changes from positive to negative (and visa versa) normally only near the actual tops and bottoms of the small cap index swings.

Today, this "Small Cap Swing Indicator" tripped to SHORT. I will keep you updated when it makes a change in the future and/or when the accumulated delta values are near a tripping point.

Anonymous said...


with all the bad news, fed speak, iran, etc. market still closes up?!

its enough to turn a bear into a bull!

with my luck, as soon as i go long, the markets will crash

transmutating bear

EddieFl said...

If you guys go to Pring.com. Martin is big time bearish, you know, that is one guy I actually believe, he is a Master techincal trader/instructor.

He has a large 10page PDF on why he says he is bearish. That kinda rattles my cage.

My only issue with that is a "watched pot never boil" , if we are all waiting and watching and expecting ans anticiapting and everybody is ready to pull the trigger.

Then you and I know it will go higher and break/fall when we least expect it.

Anonymous said...

thanks for your offer to share updates on your indicator that I'm sure you spent a lot of time developing and testing.

If you are willing to share more - What is the probability of an accurate prediction when the indicator trips?


Anonymous said...

eddiefl, or martin pring, or whoever you are

please do not spam this site.

EddieFl said...

anonymous 12:27, do you really think MArtin Pring would be chatting up at a blog, ding dong.

And that you dont know who Pring is, scares me even more. Oh boy..

Pring, KST, Father of momentum trading, know worldwide. Very expensive instructor, about 7 best-sellers,,, ahhh yea,, im not that guy.

Wow, i, yes, actually its better if you dont find out about him or what he does, its better for traders that do know who he is.

nasdaqstox said...


Anonymous said...

Trader II -- take note from smallswinger!!! He SHARES his system!!!

Anonymous said...

anonymous ... you are the one spamming this site by not including your name at the end!


stockshaker said...

I love how this comment section has gone right down the crapper. Although I did laugh so loud when Eddie called that other guy, ding dong. Well done buddy, and Im not even being sarcastic at all.

The markets are beginning to make me impatient. Whoever thought a little pullback would take so long? Do you think the pullback will come at all?

This market is going right to tha moon!

Anonymous said...

I agree. This comment section is virtually worthless right now. Too much babble back and forth with nearly zero useful content.

I'm guilty of it, as well. But at least MOST of the time I try to discuss relevant topics and trades.

We really need to eliminate the excess crap here and boil it down to the sharing of trading styles and potential setups, along with USEFUL general discussion of the markets.

But all this going back and forth between anonymous posters is just stupid.


Tim Knight said...

Just a quick post to say I'm not going to do another entry for the day - - there is NOTHING new to say about the markets. If the Dow had kept its downward ways that it had this morning and closed down 50, I'd be delighted to write about it. But it just farted around and closed down a few points. Total snoozer. So, sorry, this is all ya get from me for today! See you tomorrow.

smallswinger said...

thanks for your offer to share updates on your indicator that I'm sure you spent a lot of time developing and testing.

If you are willing to share more - What is the probability of an accurate prediction when the indicator trips?

12:22 PM"

I have been using my Small Cap Swing Indicator since 2004. Like any oscillating indicator, the market occasionally reaches a point where it whipsaws across the “tripping point.” But the probability of accuracy has been fairly high, probably above 70%.

Here is a summary of the Small Cap Swing Indicator for 2006 (Bear in mind -pun- that the date of the swing is often a “reversal” day, meaning the indicator is “tripped” intra-day, rather than the day before the reversal. Also, when the indicator is near tripping point a gap can push it over the edge – it’s hard to predict gaps).

Small Cap.......Probable/
Swing Ind.......Actual
Date............Swing Dates

1/03 - Long.....1/03 - Long
1/12 - Short....1/12 - Short
1/24 – Long.....1/18 – Long
2/02 – Short....2/02 – Short
2/14 – Long.....2/14 – Long
2/28 – Short....3/02 – Short
3/10 – Long.....3/10 – Long
3/21 – Short
3/23 – Long
3/30 – Short....4/07 – Short
4/13 – Long.....4/12 – Long
4/24 – Short....4/20 – Short
5/02 – Long.....5/02 – Long
5/10 – Short....5/08 – Short
5/19 – Long.....5/25 – Long
6/05 – Short....6/05 – Short
6/15 – Long.....6/14 – Long
7/05 – Short....7/05 – Short
7/18 – Long.....7/18 – Long
8/04 – Short....8/04 – Short
8/14 – Long.....8/14 – Long
8/22 – Short....8/21 – Short

I'll keep you updated.........

Anonymous said...

Here's a short candidate for y'all. Got it from Alchemy of Trading website.




niko said...

Does anyone else see a Dow Theory reversal on the INDU? Not yet solid, but it looks like higher highs and higher lows to me.

That said, I entered into some puts with pretty tight stops today, expecting that we've got a short term top here (as of this AM). We'll see.

As for anonymous posting... I'm with Tony and Eddie. Anyone who thinks Eddie is spamming hasn't been on this board for very long. Seems to me there are about 10-15 great posters, and then a lot of anonymous posters who are sometimes great, and often rediculous.

Tim, any chance of insisting upon registered users? I know that on my (far less popular) blogs, insisting upon registration keeps the anger level down, and the relevance level up... Just a suggestion, obviously it's your blog...

Though this would force Tony to register, I hope he does. You can stay pretty much anonymous within your registration, and it's free.

Cup said...

Looks like the Q's briefly broke recent support at 38.27, but quickly reversed. Maybe it can take another stab at it tomorrow. Chips should start the day down after NSM missed forecasts.

Leisa said...

Martin Pring...what a class act. I actually downloaded the form to fill out to go spend two days with him for his fall session. I'm on the fence. He's recently written about the commodities market. His article on "Return of the Bear" is worth reading. Sadly, the bear seems to be hibernating.

PB said...

Even in a tight market like today, I managed to make some money on QQQQ puts ... I feel this market is rolling over, but I don't like the fact that it's still sitting on last weeks gains.It might make abrief spurt higher.
Nat gas had an awesome day today, looking to hop on board in the low $6's.

Where has the volatility gone? ... it's a damn drought out there!

TR said...

whah, whah, whah . . .

This is a great board. I like seeing the sentiment, a lot of "guesses"! So anyway!

Love the Quattrone post! Is that a riot. You are right, that guy would have fryed some time ago, but I guess those that lost a lot of $$$ sometime ago made some back! Not sure the short term has finished it's lows or the run up. Lot of convergance in the stocks I watch. No money in trading those ranges (unless this is a daytraders blog - I think not!).

Keep up the posts. Lot's of frustration in missing the last run, but I should expect that breaking a couple small resistance above should have been enough to keep me out for a while, but I like most have that greed bug going!

Tim - Love your perspective. Why doesn't Hurricane have a board and I nice "giant" product that all the internet uses! Darn, now I need that bull fix to weight the options!

Good luck trading!

Anonymous said...

tr --- why you cryin'?

Buy some DEC DOW Puts and foggit' about it!

It's the DDP!!!

darcy said...

Tim, i noticed in your puts from the other day that you are short CAMECO
being a DINES follower I would be very cautious of shorting that one, seeing as how the price of uranium has just made another high.
question: did you know that URANIUM has gone up from 8.00 to 48.00 in 4 yrs without a single pullback of even .15 cents.

as people discover it they will go into the largest producer ( cameco ) before they find the other uranium miners. so Cameco should have most of the money going in in the short term

just my thoughts

tight stops

good blog as always

Anonymous said...

Paired trade. Short HPQ, long DELL.

HP has a great run since they tossed Carly from the train. But the results were based on cost cutting etc. Sell limit at 35.60.

Dell could get lower. P&F shows 16 so it may take a bit to get a long position on. No one expects much from them.

Do your own homework.


Anonymous said...

NDX just took out the lows of this range over the last 3 days. Just a bit more volume here.

Might want to take some shorts off the table at ES 1291.

The Trader II