Monday, August 14, 2006

Fade Away, Again & Again.......

We once again pull out our friend Bob Dole to represent today's action, which is great for us bears. A huge, instant, triple-digit rally followed by a spirit-crushing fade. Huzzah! Another great day on the market. Oil being down hard was helpful, too.


On a daily basis, we've got a nicely formed shooting star. I'll say what I've said so often already - until we break below 10,660, all this shouting about ups and downs is just for fun. We're not in a bull market OR a bear market. We're in a farting-around market, and I'm sure we'll all be glad when we finally get direction (It'll come one day, trust me!)


The reduced tensions in Israel caused oil prices to ease, which did great things for my dozens of oil service-related shorts and puts. The OIH is still a head and shoulders in the making (not completed yet), so, again, it's nice to see it sink, but it's not party time until it breaks that neckline.


The S&P chart doesn't look so different from any of the other major indices - a shooting star, more or less. The bulls are surely frustrated, since they can't seem to make any rally stick. Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will have some key interest-rate data, so that should make things interesting.


I'm about to hop aboard a plane (again....) so I'll sign off. Good one today, bears!

113 comments:

Mike Stone said...

CRASH!

I NEED A CRASH!

TR said...

Great day, need a day like that to confirm the run down. How far is yet to be determined. Liked that ending!

Anonymous said...

of course another day to make some good money on the downside and im not there to take advantage of it.

PPI and CPI are two market movers. I think anything over 0.4% and the markets will tank. IF by some strange reason we get 0.1-0.2% the market will rally hard. Also earnings from HD and WMT this week. Hoping for a sharp rally so i can add more shorts. Looking to short BRCM after todays run, it does look strong but I still think it heads to $22 before $30. As for OIL im liking USO very soon, if by chance this sinks to $66 on wednesdays supply data im picking some up. I think this is a minor selloff before the next run. Last time USO dropped to $65 it ran up pretty quick. Going to be an interesting 2 days ahead.

Anonymous said...

bears will win the battle boys, bulls can't save this downward spiraling market.

acceltrader said...

Sure is classic bear market behavior. Gap higher in AM...sell down rest of day...Per Bill O'Neill of IBD fame.

bill said...

check this article out, came out today about inflation could be a hint to tomorrows numbers and also looking forward

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060814/bs_nm/economy_fed_philadelphia_dc_1

Anonymous said...

WMT, HD, ANF, AEOS TJX all reporting tomorrow. WMT and HD are definite dow movers. Imagine bad earnings from WMT, HD and high PPI numbers. Forget it. DOW 11k here we come. This time if the dow gets to that 10660, i think were going right for 10,000. Still think 10,000 before 12,000.

Paul

Anonymous said...

Don't forget BJ, SPLS, and DKS.

I'm not sure if they'll move the indices like WMT or HD, but they've still got some power.

Tomorrow morning will be VERY interesting around 8-8:30 AM. I don't think the PPI numbers will cause too much turmoil in the markets, but I could be wrong. Also, I'm not entirely convinced that good earnings from WMT and HD will move the markets very much, as the earnings are backward-looking. And those companies are fairly "stable," so their guidance shouldn't be very surprising.

If anything, the markets could sell off hard on bad news and maybe SLIGHTLY move higher on great news. But I suspect that they will just sell into every rally anyways.

Every day brings a new "worry" to the markets. Tomorrow is PPI and heavy-hitter retailers. Wednesday will be CPI numbers, housing figures, and some more retailers (BLI, GYMB, HPQ, EL).

Hold on to your hats, folks.

-Tony

Jason said...

It will be interesting the next couple of days to say the least.

Anonymous said...

a "farting around market". LOL. yep, full of gas and no place to go but down.

john

ChronicTown said...

Tony, Thanks for the feedback.Ill reset the stop on GW. I covered Pcu. Your posts are great! i know nothing, but I have two things going for me. Im willing to learn and study and i have tons of discipline .Good Luck to the Traders! Chris

stockshaker said...

hey guys, check this one out, MSTR

Does this set-up seem way too good to be true??? Im getting chills just looking at it. It can't be this easy, can it?

EddieFl said...

Here we go, Big gap up, will it stick to the upside today.

MSTR good trading vehicle, yes, i miss the long on this, I should of gotten int 2 weeks ago, it does look like a juicy short. Im waiting for a confirmation to get in on the short side, I'll let you know when I do.

Anonymous said...

Yet another HUGE gap up. What's going on here? Oddly, the futures were up pretty big even BEFORE the numbers were released.

MMMM (More Market Manipulation Madness)

Anonymous said...

Bears it looks like we are PHUCKED again on the open. THe PPI is not that great but the street is in rally mode for some ODD reason. The prices are up but they are spinning it as down. I am not sure WTF is going on. WTF ? This is insanity. All the same, data show mounting price pressures for goods midway through the production process??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

Anonymous said...

can someone please tell me where you see that the market gapped up? im new and trying to keep up with everything. thanks in advance.
-stephen

Anonymous said...

Dow futures up 85, I've never seen this before..... I'm 100% cash.... do i wait until tomorrow to buy puts???haha

This market is not acting logically. This still doesn't change anything....

Anonymous said...

the futures are 90 on a .01 % drop in prices ?? Those numbers are rigged. None the less the street is whoring on anything they can to sell.

Anonymous said...

up 97 ???????? WHAT ??

EddieFl said...

Stephen, the best way to see the futures up is on your data feed, with whoever you trade with. If you dont have that or only have a basic trading platform, turn on Bloomberg t.v. its on the top right. PLease bloomberg not cnbc, cnbc, a bunch of bobbleheads.

Good luck,

Anonymous said...

The bears are in serious trouble here.

Jason said...

CPI data tomorrow can change today's whole story, however carefully watch todays action, this had better be a catalyst to close above resistance.

EddieFl said...

Futures very strong across the board.

I bet they take this one up today all the way to the close,

Bob Dole getting some tonight, watch out Elizabeth it could get nasty,,,

Anonymous said...

Hmmm, think the gap up has anything to do with options expiration this week....

Big Bill

Anonymous said...

eddiefl,
thank you from winter haven, fl. sir.
stephen

Anonymous said...

This won't be sustained. The Dow is already waffling. The bulls are just giving it another try. It won't last through the day...


-Jana

EddieFl said...

Whoever was looking at PEix, could be a low risk long here. With a tight stop, its still a very risky stock.

Stephen, very nice, Winter Haven, its booming out there, im on the west coast of Fl, Clearwater Beach area.

Sanjay Sola said...

Dell is an interesting stock. up 2.8% on very bad news about their battery recall. this is news that is material to earnings.

since we're near the top of the trading range, i'm shorting it. stock has pretty good resistance above $22.

Anonymous said...

2100 on the naz just got punctured. Man im hurting bad. My losses have spiraled out of control and I have very little margin to average up to reshort. Please someone help me half my capital is tied up in losses. Should I reshort or cover. Please help!!!

Anonymous said...

Dear Anonymous that needs help,

You should never have been in this situation in the first place. It's a hard lesson, but you have to understand that trading without proper stoploss and money management will gurantee that you will lose in this game in the long run.

I hope all the bear talk here didn't get you to bet the farm on the downside. The truth of the matter is, noone on this board knows where the market will go in the short or long term.

My recommendation is to set a stop loss NOW and see where things go now.

Lot's of luck.

Anonymous said...

anon
Please help!!!
go to the bathroom, pull your pants down and seat yourself down

regardless of whether you do anything else, just sit there and think of all the bad things you have done recently.

5 minutes should suffice.
now ask yourself, WAS I A BAD BOY?

all should become clear and your decision will come to you as to your course of action

come back to your computer and sell

either short or for damage control

sincerely,

same shit different pile :)

Anonymous said...

Never average into a losing position!!!
There's a reason why it's a losing position. When a trade goes against you, exit!

Anonymous said...

I know a guy that lost a wife to a margin call

EddieFl said...

anon that is in trouble, set your stops and stick to them. There are volumes of books written on the subject of cutting losses quickly.

Live to trade another day.

Anonymous said...

I don't know about today's action. Seems to be good volume, but let's get serious: one single month of "below expected" PPI should certainly not be enough to cause a 1-2% gain on the indices.

I definitely wouldn't cover any shorts here. The upside today is limited at best. There is still the "post-2 PM selloff" that may come soon enough. Call me crazy, but if you can tolerate a little more pain, it could be in your best interest to wait out the storm.

Weak shorts covering is exactly what propels these rallies further upward. CPI data tomorrow could easily negate today's gains. Besides, I get the feeling that people will cash out of their gains towards the end of the day ahead of the CPI data tomorrow. Just like they did yesterday ahead of the PPI report.

Good luck. Today's definitely a tough one on the bears.

-Tony

Sanjay Sola said...

anon,

take some off the table, if you are uncomfortable.

right now, from what i see, it's a bear market bounce. but they are vicious in nature. market is oversold. hard to tell how high they can push it up.

i would cover stocks that are moving up on heavy volume.
if the volume is low, then i would not be as concerned.

Anonymous said...

time to hold on your shorts.

crash is near

imo

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
Never average into a losing position!!!
There's a reason why it's a losing position. When a trade goes against you, exit!

8:07 AM



I disagree

Anonymous said...

looking to get into DXD at $69.50

downosedive said...

I disagree with all comments about setting stop losses. Everytime I used to do that I had positions closed out, only to see the indices bounce back. Therefore I needless lost £500 in just 10 trades, only to see the 2 close positions end up virtually back where they started. In fact one of them actually carried on during the same trading session and would have produced a profit if the damn thing hadnt have closed. Before you all hammer me, I set DJA stop losses 400 to 800 points adrift from my opening. Much better to hang on and ride the losses and wait for the market to turnaround, then take out more positions in that direction to recover your losses by offsetting the resulting gains against cashing in the loss position without the need to wait for the original losses to reduce to zero (as that may never happen, ie the indices may not return to the original opening level so the fresh positions will compensate for the difference). ANONYMOUS MY ADVICE TO YOU IS EITHER TO WAIT ANOTHER 1 OR 2 SESSIONS UNTIL THE NAZ TREND BECOMES CLEARER.....OR....TAKE A CHANCE AND OPEN UP LONG POSITION(S) ON THE NAZ. THAT WAY HANG ON TO YOUR CURRENT SHORT POSITIONS AND RIDE THE LOSSES AND THE PROFIT YOU MAKE ON THE LONG WILL COUNTER ANY FURTHER LOSSES BEYOND YOUR CURRENT LEVEL. THEN WHEN YOU THINK THE NAZ HAS PEAKED, CLOSE SOME, (BUT NOT ALL) OF YOU LONG POSITIONS AND RIDE THE DOWNTREND TO REDUCE YOUR ORIGINAL LOSSES BACK DOWN TO BREAKEVEN BY OFFSETTING THE GAINS YOU MADE ON YOUR LONG POSITIONS. All sounds confusing Im sure, but thats exactly what Im trying to do now - its better than giving up (?) and better than setting stop losses on any future trades. A nighmare situation to be in, I know, Im there as well. Remember your losses are only screen based......unless you cash them in (hence the reason NOT to set stop losses)

Anonymous said...

bought SDS instead at $69.50

Anonymous said...

It could be risky to add to shorts here, even though it LOOKS good. CPI data tomorrow could be soft, in which case this market definitely goes higher.

Today's X-factor is tomorrow's CPI figures. That's the only thing that would drop the indices this afternoon. If CPI data is high tomorrow, then the selloff will REALLY start, in which case you can enter lots of low-risk shorts.

Doing anything today is pretty high risk. Covering shorts at this point in the day is useless, but adding to shorts or even going long on anything is also a huge gamble.

darcy said...

downosedive

especially because of what you were just whining about the other day, having gotten yourself over your head, YOU OF ALL PEOPLE should not be giving advice on how to deal with getting out of a jam. we have all been there, in regards to accepting losses and your advice can be DISASTROUS

whoever posted sitting on the toilet and thinking about what you did was funny AND appropriate

re: in trouble

1)My recommendation is to set a stop loss NOW and see where things go now.


2) take some off the table, if you are uncomfortable.

3) Live to trade another day.

these are all good words of advice

having said all this

free advice is worth what you pay for it

good luck

Sanjay Sola said...

the tape feels artificial. until i see some market leadership, i'm hanging in. still no confirmed rally.

economy is slowing. some cautious outlooks by John Deere and Home Depot.

Anonymous said...

Hi all Im the anon in trouble. Took the advice and turned off the computer. Didn't go to the toilet tho, too stressed:) I think Tony is right wait for 2pm. I kept moving my stops this month expecting a huge crash. Never again. Im gonna cover a few positions after 2pm and Ill place my stops then. I smell a fade coming.

AT said...

We all looked at the charts and judged that the trend was bearish. But it seems that there are a lot of people out there who think otherwise. Like many here said, this could be a short term rally like yesterday with some selling in the pm in advance of the PPI figures. Options expiration this week may also be a factor.

NAS broke through 2100 and S&P through 1280, after several attempts. They say that the more attempts are made to break a resistance, the weaker it becomes. If PPI figures are weak tomorrow, we may have a bigger rally tomorrow (200+ for DJ), but if strong, we could have a reversal.

Overall, the economy is weakening (one reason for low PPI was reduced prices of cars). High oil does cause inflationary pressures through the system but why these are not reflected in the PPI beats me.

For anonymous in trouble, I don't suggest averaging down - tommorrow's movement is very uncertain. But don't close your positions in a panic - that way you always lose. If you can hold on till the pm, probably you can unload some of your positions for the minimum loss.

For future, let this be a lesson. You should always have exit points, whether actual stop loss orders or mental stop losses. 'Protect Your Capital' is the first rule of trading.

Anonymous said...

"in trouble" wuz prob'ly just some visiting bull wanting to throw hand grenades in our faces - I mean ... "help me" ??? Who's gonna do that, anyway ?? Grow up, shut up, and trade (and don't whine about yer losses).

Anonymous said...

at,

wise advice.

unfortunately for me, i did not protect my capital and am nearly out of the game.

my puts have knocked me down about 20 grand ( in two weeks ).

will hold on as long as i can, but so many stocks that appear ready to tip over continue to move up.

good luck to all.

john

Anonymous said...

oh, me - oh, my
I have made $37,000 shorting GOOG this month, and now I've lost $3,000 of that back today as it is up 7 1/2 pts. What shall I do? Someone please help me. Should I reshort? Cover my losses (for the day)? Someone please help me.

niko said...

"grow up, shut up, and don't whine about your losses"?!?

Strong words for a person that won't provide a name, anon. If you're looking for the loud tough-guy board, perhaps Cramer is more to your liking.

Truth is that everyone on this board who has been trading for any significant period has been in the same situation, and everyone who suggested strict stops are the people who have managed to recover.

Forget yesterday. Set stops today. You will be pushed out of some future winners, but overall, you'll preserve your capital. Read http://www.robertwcolby.com/rules.html

That link outlines the rules to live by, at least until you're seasoned enough to find your own trading style.

Super aggression works for some people, but not most. Build a foundation before you try to emulate anyone else.

Anonymous said...

shut the f--- up anon 9:21, quit bitchin before you lose all your money....the bulls have come out of the woodwork.

AT said...

Nope, 12:40 and still no sign of fading.

There seems to be a lot of cash on the sidelines, just waiting to come in on the slightest good news.

Are we seeing the beginning of the fall rally? Is it time to turn bullish?

Anonymous said...

To the original "help me" anonymous poster:

The worst part about today is that we're RIGHT at resistance for all of the indices. Putting stops right at resistance areas is a sure way to lose money, as they are typically tested, if not briefly broken, then the position magically reverses itself.

The good news is, unless you had some REALLY tight trailing stops, you would probably be in the same situation anyways. My stops are set (mentally) around 2115 for the Naz, 11300 for the Dow, and 1287 for the S&P. Trying to predict what would happen with soft or weak PPI numbers this morning was impossible. Your best bet is to make sure that you only get stopped out if the trend breaks against you. And since we've been in a trading channel for months, I doubt you can be any more precise with your stops than that.

Dow resistance at 11,200-11,250
S&P resistance at 1280-1285
Naz resistance at 2050-2100

You can see today that the resistance levels are acting as just that: RESISTANCE. There is no sense in covering here, since it is very likely that the indices will get pushed back this afternoon.

It's a tough situation. It sounds as though you've taken out some shorts a little too early. At least you can learn from this: only take out positions at or near support/resistance and set your stops appropriately right away. If your trade breaks through resistance or crashes support, then you can cover with minimal losses.

-Tony

krispytoast said...

Anyone have any opinion or experiences with the INVESTOOLS Basic Options Course?

Anonymous said...

Short the market and cover after it drops a lot. If it don't drop, don't short it!

Anonymous said...

"Are we seeing the beginning of the fall rally? Is it time to turn bullish? " you turn bullish.... I'll stay bearish. Nothing has changed...the damage is done....

Earnings will not be met next quarter...remember that interest rates have a lagging effect of 6 months. What you are seeing is the beginning.

Remember in 2000 that the top was not reached until august 22. The bulls are desperate and the markets refuse to act rationally.... people are also becoming complacent. Same circumstances as 2000.

Since when was a slowing economy a good thing for stocks??? ITS NOT.

I'm going to sit and watch.... and be patient.

Anonymous said...

Trading is all about Entry & Exit points. Don't think about the "ifs", learn to react and recognize a trade going against you quickly.

Mr. Downnose method of hanging on until things reverse is the worst advice anyone can give. The problem is, what if it doesn't reverse? We have seen numerous time over the years where a downtrend or uptrend runs for weeks. It can happen, and when it does you'll be taken to the cleaners.

Anonymous said...

one more point..... this market hasn't been tradeable for the past few days...long or short. Does anyone find that odd?

Unless you are some elite day trader. The gap ups leave the bulls out of the action, and the fades exclude some of the bears..

AT said...

"Mr. Downnose method of hanging on until things reverse is the worst advice anyone can give. The problem is, what if it doesn't reverse?"

I agree. Hanging on to a losing position is the worst thing you can do. Used to do it myself when I started trading. Quickly learnt my lesson, of course.

Planning before entering any trade is important. You MUST have your entry and exit points. If a trade goes against you, you should get out. Hang on only if you have 100% conviction that the direction will reverse. Hoping it will reverse is not good enough.

btw methinks we are seeing a little pullback. Good.

Gordon said...

John
have you considered selling some puts to offset your losses?

Anonymous said...

Thanks Tony. I wrote in 9.09 that Im covering a few after 2pm not now and it looks like it was a terrific idea. Like I said I still smell a fade coming and the NAZ looks like its having a hell of a time trying to break 2110. It keeps trying but sooner or later it'll give up. Long term wise the NAZ isn't gonna break 2120. It tried on the fourth and it failed. Im seeing a head & shoulders top on the NAZ. Could this be the beginning of the fade?

vince said...

I usually don't post, but reading some of the posts above whether this a fall rally, you quickly realize what a head game this market is.

If you didn't buy Friday or yesterday, you're going to be a day late and a buck short. Support/Resistance, Elliot waves, fractals are all great, but to make money in this market succuessfully you pretty much have to be PRESCIENT. You have to have sense of when the market is turning, just about when it's ready to turn.

You know those elite poker players on WSO? They KNOW what cards the other players have. Call it psychic ability, intuition, whatever, but it's not something that can be learned or taught. If you have it, you can tweak it, but if you don't, fuggitabouit.

Anonymous said...

i cannot remember the last time the futures were up 100 in the AM. And this is a bear market ??

the inflations numbers are lower because demand is dropping and prices are dropping so they can sell items this is NOT good but the market is jacked up 100 points.

My AUG puts are garbage.

Anonymous said...

we all know the econ is in the crapola stage butthe big boys with big money are in control, there are more gaps on the chart than the space between lettermans 2 front teeth. there is NO trend. they gap up and down and position trade there own stock. they swap stock and use ETFs to manipulate.

this market should for all reasons be heading south. come on... we should all know on the day the plot for the airliners caused a GAP up on th open it is so clear. NEWS does not matter. It is noise.

For all that matters i have learned an expensive lesson this month.
who is making money ? im pathetic this month.

Sanjay Sola said...

what happens once this inflation data is over and we have to wait for the Fed meeting on Sept. 20?

volumes will probably dry up again and we'll be range bound for a while.

like Tim said, nobody owns this market.

Anonymous said...

"My AUG puts are garbage"

The guys that control max pain for options have done their job then.....

Anonymous said...

"the inflations numbers are lower because demand is dropping and prices are dropping so they can sell items this is NOT good but the market is jacked up 100 points."

GO to Barry's blog.... the reason the # was lower was because of prices for light trucks..... that made up the .3 Inflation is actually up on all the other sectors this month.

The big picture blog...check it out

bsi87 said...

Well, I bought some PEIX yesterday but I didn't see VXN get low enough. Today...it is. Bought some QID and SDS today. buy limit on DXD at 69.33. And buy stops to add to QID/SDS positions if they reverse and move above the day's midpt.

It's a great mkt. Just have to be nimble. Short positions don't last forever.

Practice safe money/risk management,i.e. position size, entry pts, exit points, trailing stops, etc.

AT said...

You're right - to trade in this market you need to be prescient. Nothing matters, not fundamentals, not technicals, not sentiment. Its all so random. 100 points up or down on the slightest news. Ugh!

downosedive said...

To those of you that think hanging on to loosing positions is the worse thing to do - this guy has short positions, so at some stage the market will turn downwards. His risk is now, how much further will it go up, if at all. If he cashes in his losses now on his short positions, what do you advise he does to recover his loss? What? Take out long positions on the Naz? If the answer to that is yes, then what are you doing on this website. Go away to a bull site instead. Cashing his losses is the worst he could do. The risk of the indices goimg up much more is now so so small compared with whether it will go down - the balance of risk is clearly on the upside and not the downside, which is why Im holding my current short positions that are running heavy losses. The damage to him has largely been done, too late now to advise stop losses. He needs help now. Are you saying he should take further Naz short positions but with stop losses??

AT said...

Are the bears stupid or am I missing something? Just look at the news:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B2779157D%2D5812%2D4D53%2D85ED%2DFA3162BE3AF5%7D&siteid=

"Pipeline inflation builds with 7.9% rise in core intermediate PPI"
"... the highest in 17 months and inching closer to a cyclical high."

"economists said they still expect nasty news on core consumer inflation on Wednesday"

"Vehicle prices fell 2%, accounting for the decline in the core PPI."

This is good news?

AT said...

Sorry I meant "bulls" not "bears" in my last post. Typo..

PB said...

This is to all the poster who say "NEVER" do this or that. Never say never!

i.e. - never average average into a losing position.

some of my best trades were succesfull because of this. If you don't average down, then what you are saying is that you are able to pick the exact moment a position will start going your way! That is complete BS --- trading is like fishing, you throw the line in hoping something catches ... just 'cause a position doesn't go with you right from the start, doesn't mean it's a loser. I had many loser turn into winners if I had held long enough. By averaging down I made more moolah.

AT said...

More good news for the bulls, perhaps? Another 100 points for the Dow?

"Home builders' confidence plunges to 15-year low"

Anonymous said...

No, you are missing the point nosedive. Market is try'n to rally now. What if it closes at the highs of the day and it does another 100 point gap. The problem with that is, he will be forced out of the trade and a greater lost. If he get stopped out, he can simply wait for a better setup for a different time. The market isn't going anywhere. You make is sound like it's going to crash out of the gate anyday.

AT said...

"Never say never"
You are right. I have also averaged down from time to time. I've also held on to trades which didn't go my way. The main thing is that you are sure that the direction will ultimately go your way without burning you out. You average down or hold on because of your conviction, not hope.

Anonymous said...

PB,
You talk a good game. I think what you meant is scalping into a position. That is completely different from averaging down on a trade that is going against you. If you think the trade should not go beyond a certain point (ala 2100) then that's consider a trade going against you.

AT said...

God, look at the pump. They really want the market to close up today. Dow 113 points up!

Anonymous said...

And who knows which way we go from here? No one does, why don't the folks in losing position continue to average up your shorts.

Anonymous said...

and why don't you buy more stocks from the DOW?

Lets hold on for couple more days, and then buy QID, DXD and SDS

Anonymous said...

can we assume that a better CPI numbers are already counted in as part of today's run up?

-Jay Mac

KW Eric Ho said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

What a market!

MM pump like there is no tomorrow.

crash! crash!

Anonymous said...

I'm surprised by how many people are not recognizing that we might have put in a double bottom. Goes to show how hard it is for a trader to switch side when a trade is going against them.

Anonymous said...

Like the poster at the top, i'm also deep in the red on some of my puts. Really regret averaging down on these puts and not letting my stop loss do it's thing. The market can reverse, but at this point there is nothing that i can do beside selling these for huge losses. A very expensive lesson.

Anonymous said...

bought SDS as well. Im not worried. before you know it the s&p will be back at 1250-1260 area. That number this moring was completely made up just to move the markets higher. PATHETIC

Anonymous said...

you know how many times we have seen triple digit gains followed by the markets falling right back where they were. We are stuck in a trading range. There is no way we see dow 11600+

Anonymous said...

11,600!!! Are you kidding me. That's 400 dow points from here. You expect to ride your shorts or puts 400 points up?
Some of you are blind by your bear gloggle.

Anonymous said...

dow is not going back to 6 year highs. Do not worry about today. How many times have we seen this. TOO MANNNNNY times...SHORT AWAY and do not be worried.

AT said...

Seems like the market is anticipating tomorrow's CPI numbers too. If they are high, all this gain will vanish. But if CPI is also light, the there will be no restraining the bulls. There seems to be a lot of money just waiting to enter the market.

stockshaker said...

spx has broken through its resistance (~1280)

If things go down tomorrow it could just be a consolidation after today's spectacular gains.

I would be anticipating a lot of people are going to cover shorts if tomorrow does prove bullish.

I think our bear run is on hold for the time being.

But damn, don't so many graphs look prime for a further fall?

or is it time to break the downtrend?

ACOWA said...

I have been reading this blog for quite some time. I really appreciate the time and effort that Tim puts into making this informative. I have turned several others onto the site.

Since the market's stuck in a trading range, this blog tends to be a great barometer of when to trade out of a position. When this blog get's unusually frustrated, it's usually time to go short. When it's giddy about crushing the bulls, there's good reason to consider going long. The two groups that are making money are those on the sidelines getting paid 5% while the market figures out a direction and those willing to go against the crowd. Right now, the market is similar to the gameshow "Deal or no deal". A lot of people are just taking the 5% deal until the odds are more compelling.


Alan

Anonymous said...

stockshaker i just bought SDS and will not sell until it touches $70.50++, if we rally tomorrow ill still hold it.

Anonymous said...

Dow have already broken out of downtrend a while back. I recall Tim selling his puts when it happened. It took awhile for this rally to start rolling, but technically it has done nothing but building a cause for another leg up. I won't be surprise if we test the highs

Sanjay Sola said...

today was rally day. way above the 1.7% required in the Nasdaq. excellent breadth. volume was a little below average but much better than the preceding days.

need a confirmed rally day now. i lost a little money and went to the sidelines. not sure about tomorrow.

Tim's Bob Dole picture is a contrarian indicator, it seems.

Anonymous said...

I bought QID at 70.10 today. Hope to accumulate if it drops more.

- Jay Mac

Anonymous said...

i could see if this rally was happening for no reason except for bargain hunting, only reason why were up is on the made up inflation number that was out today. IF tomorrows numbers are below forecast expect another rally, if they are above consensus expect to back down 1-2% tomorrow.

And why is HD up, did they bring down guidance for the rest of the year. I dont understand.

Anonymous said...

Jay mack good move, I bought QID a bit higher but bought QLD also to hedge against my position while i was switching brokers. Wasnt able to trade so intead of selling it at a loss i decided to purchase the same amount of shares of QLD. Now I own both QLD and QID, I have gains in QLD and loses in QID. Trying to time it right. If the nasdaq rallies tomorrow and QLD jumps past $70.00 im selling it and going to let QID ride back to $74+

downosedive said...

I dont think any of you are understanding what Im saying. Perhaps I havnt explained it very well (giving the benefit of the doubt to you all). I think you must all be using a different type of trade to be, because I dont experience any trade out. I spreadbet on the futures. At the end of each 3 month time frame, you can opt to carry over your positions and so on and so, as long as you dont exceed your margin call limit. My margin call limit is pretty high, so I dont have any worries about that. So why would I want to cash in losses on down bets, if I believe they will come good fairly soon? In the meantime while Im waiting for a downtrend, Imve taken some up positions and am making some money on those. Whgen cashed they will partly offset my losses on the down positions. Then I ride the downwave and reduce my losses until I think the next up wave is due. Sure the timing isnt going to be exact. But dont you see the strategy? Instead of cashing in thousands of pounds of losses now on the down bets? I can ride out further DJA increases under these circumstances. Perhaps you dont take out counter trades when the market goes against you. This is addressed to all. I doubt that anyone will understand the strategy though. Seems to be something missing..............

stockshaker said...

SDS looks alright. I like the above average volume, and nice drop.

I sold puts on my QQQQ's, Im taking a conservative approach, and sold way out of the money - in case this was a head fake, and we start going back down, it won't impact the profits on my original very very long term puts (i bought March 07). And the more conservative approach was also taken to buy some time to see what type of pattern materializes.

Once this has been established, I'll probably buy back those puts I sold at a discount, and take a more aggressive approach, and get back on my original profit margins.

I think this rally can sustain - and if it does fall again, we could easily just see a double bottom before moving back up.

I dont' care which way though.

Anonymous said...

all markets correct at some time or another

but this ppt rally is frightning.

shorts cover pushing prices higher,

buyers become fatigued,

bears come in again,

bulls take profits,

market drops,

ppt rally again --

how long can this go on? dow might reach 11,800.

ah, what to do? what to do?

bsi87 said...

SP500 and Naz are at the top of their 20 day BB. DJIA in that 11250-11300 area...again. VXN hit 18, VIX hit 13 and change. P/C about 10% below 10 day MA.

Opened QID/SDS/DXD positions today.


QID position is -1.7% under cost, SDS -1.3%, DXD -.15%. Try to get the bottom 1/3 of the day's range but don't always succeed. Trailing sell stops QID 67.25, SDS 67.60, and DXD 67.21 which are based on 1.5 X the ATR. So if we get another rip roaring rally tomorrow, I'll be stopped out. I doubt it, based on the trading range and the volatility measures. In fact, if something untoward happens, then we could see something ugly.

See what happens tomorrow.

Luck to all.

Anonymous said...

bsi87: Always glad to hear your perspective. Glad to have you back on board the short bus :) I didn't cover my shorts today, so I'm sitting on a decent loss, but I'm waiting for the ugliness to start. Today was nothing but noise. A huge LOT of noise, certainly, but still just noise and nonsense. I just can't see a sustainted rally here based on a single PPI figure. After all, we've been seeing HORRIBLE PPI figures for 6 months now without having 45-point declines on the Naz. But now we have a special case where "light trucks" bring down the PPI figure and people are cheering? I don't think so.

Personally, I'm a bit shocked at the action going into the close. Around 1:15 PM today, the indices looked to be softening. Dow only up 89, S&P only up 9 points, etc. But then at 2 PM they took off.

Seems like "They" pumped a little harder to force out the margin shorts this afternoon. The end of day rally seems more like short covering than anything else. I can see a lot of shorts getting scared after today's response to the PPI figures being light, and worrying about tomorrow's CPI figures also coming in light.

45 points on the Naz??? Hahahah! Give me a break!

Just ask yourself: if you were sitting on the sidelines today, where would you put my money RIGHT NOW? After today's ridiculous rally, you just HAVE to put your money on the short side.

-Tony

bsi87 said...

Tony:

Any kind of rally around options expiration is always suspect esp if the crowd is loaded with puts or has been selling calls or some other option game. I think this "rally" won't last long but my stops will take me out if I'm wrong.

If you look at a weekly chart of the DJIA, it's been trading between 11250/11300 and 10700 since May. No trend. So in my playbook, you short at the top and cover at the bottom, rinse and repeat.

I don't know that I'd agree on sidelines cash. I would wait for a confirmation rally (suspect IBD will call today, Day 1.) starting Friday. The next couple days don't count. If we'd see another 1% or greater on the indices with heavy volume, then you'd have to go long.

But doesn't matter what I think, the mkt will do what it wants.

stockshaker said...

Tony! Have to put your money on the short side?

The naz broke out from a downtrend channel. The spx broke from its trading range (its higher than its previous high in July, for sure).

If anything, I can see people short tomorrow because of the typical consolidation that comes with a 100+ point day.

But the short trends are not looking bearish at all!

Theres no doubt that we can still see bearish behavior because teh economy stats will eventually catch up, but theres no way people can ignore today's action as just some regular day, and a nice opportunity to short.

A guaranteed losing position is a stubborn position.

stockshaker said...

oh yeah, and your not seeing a rally based on the one statistic.

You are seeing a possibility of dark clouds parting at the end of a storm, which has been hitting the markets since May.

If this rally sustains, you can already see higher lows forming between bottoms (im looking at the SPX)on 6/14 and 7/18.

Anonymous said...

I guess we'll see who's right tomorrow. Personally, I think the bulls may have made a big mistake today betting the farm on soft PPI numbers. If the CPI numbers come out heavy tomorrow, the market will erase all today's gains, and then some.

Again, I have no idea why people are so afraid of the Fed. Another 1/4 point hike isn't the end of the world. And by the same token, the absense of another rate hike of 1/4 point isn't the end of the world, either.

The reality of the situation is that the economy is slowing MARKEDLY, the PPI numbers softened due to lack of demand, and even large companies are lowering guidance for the next 6 months or so. There is nothing even remotely bullish about the market's situation right now, other than short-covering rallies and fund managers who are awash in cash at the moment.

Do you really believe that 90% of the fund managers have accumulated the huge amounts of cash by exiting their long holdings over the last 3 months JUST SO they could put it right back into the market on today's soft PPI numbers???

I don't think so.

-Tony

stockshaker said...

ok, i have a tendancey of thinking things peice-meal like.

But, again, this rally does seem way too short term, and too volatile to hold water, and I am not taking any aggressive bull/bear short term positions until things start slowing down a bit. Until then, all my positions are long term, and very very conservative.

This force to reckon with can turn around at any moment ...

I think the times of making big bucks either to the short or long side is gonna be put on side for a little bit.

Anonymous said...

I'm not betting the farm either way here. 90% of my money is tied up in fixed-income securities.

But that last 10% is all put on the short side of the markets. So it's not like my portfolio is getting crushed, but I am getting a bit miffed that the bulls seem to cling to the most minor scraps of good news as an excuse for a HUGE rally.

I guess I shouldn't be pissed off, since I'm not really losing a ton of cash here, but as I said, it's the PRINCIPLE of the thing that has me ticked off.

I guess I'm looking at things way too logically.

-Tony

Anonymous said...

See you @Dow 12000!!!!

Anonymous said...

haha dow 12k hahaha, no wayyy

downosedive said...

Very worrying. Irregardless of what todays figure by bring, Im afraid both sort and long term trends have now changed to bullish, using various technical measurements. Surprisingly even the simple 20MA has suddenly reversed and as far as i can see this trend line has NEVER reversed for a second time soon after a change of direction. This is all not good.........

Anonymous said...

dow will see 15000 next week, markets are bull ridden, all shorts will cover for a rather large loss by the end of the week. sorry bears. the next bull market has started..