Thursday, August 24, 2006

A Watched Pot (Again)...

Oh my LORD the stock market is boring lately. Sheesh! I've elected to put up a YouTube movie of paint drying (with grass growing in the foreground) since it's more enticing.

So I'm just going to toss out some more interesting short ideas. The first of which, BBBY, I offered a few days ago, and it's started to leg dow nicely.


CAT (getting near the end, or a trendline break instead?)


CERN


MRO


MCK


MSTR

35 comments:

Anonymous said...

For any traders out there, this is a nice article about timing an end of the move using the bollinger bands. I myself use it quite often.

http://biz.yahoo.com/tm/060824/14670.html?.v=1

the trader II

bulleater said...

Trader 2, What do you think the markets will do tommorrow breakdown or another leg up?

chanon said...

Steeper the bollinger band the riskier it is, unless intraday sector performance is positive

I switch from using Linear regression, to using the Band, my experience...in stable market, a bounce is likely when it hits the lower band...added when u scoop up intraday sector leader along with a good bollinger band level, your have yourself a wining stock at end of day.
look at SNDK
My picks

Anonymous said...

Tim, THANK YOU for your insightfull insights. Does volume ( 90k shares aday vs. 3million ) influence pattern follwthrough odds. I'll be one of first to buy your upcoming, soon hopefully, book. Live Long and Prosper!

darcy said...

For those of you that believe in market manipulation, here is an interesting perspective

"One of the inhibiting factors to faster reversal is the concerted efforts of 8000 funds with $1 trillion in investment capital (multiplied several times over by the use of leverage). While this is not enough to push the great reflation levitation to an even higher plane, it appears to be effective in stemming its reversal – for a while. It's also helping fulfill one of the key functions of a second wave rally: frustrating the heck out of the bears. By acting in concert, large market operators might be able to prolong a trend, or even lift prices slightly, but their influence cannot carry markets to substantial new highs or lows."

The August and September 2005 issues compared hedge funds to the "pool operations" of 1927-1929 and concluded that since "the duration and extravagance of the period of illusion surrounding hedge funds is even more pronounced than that of the pools and syndicates in 1929, the ensuing fall should outdo even that of 1929. If pools, or in the modern case, hedge funds could control the market, stocks never would have crashed in 1929 or fallen broadly in 2000-2002. There’s no way to push social mood higher..."

Anonymous said...

I'd rather SMOKE POT in this market ... it's waaay more exciting!

--shshsh, hahhahahhaha ...

Frank the Tank

PB said...

Fellow Bears:

I am calling on all of you with reasonable and logical thinking skills to convince yourselves that this is the beginning of a new and lasting upleg in the markets. Ok, the answer shd be obvious that it's a near certainty that this is not the beginning, but THE END. The point of the above exercise was to show that there is nothing in the works that can push this market higher by much for any lenght of time. The slow-down/correction of the housing sector has wide and far-reaching implications. Negative amortization is becoming a reality for more and more Americans daily. The longer the stock markets ignore this, the sharper and faster the decline. With many puts selling without barely any time value in them, pls grab yourselves a hand (or a houseful) and be ready to PROFIT from the greatest financial debacle since he junk bond implosion in the '80's. I can not stretch enough of how grave and massive this problem is. Ignore it at your own peril. This is not more frightful bearish chatter ... it is reality that many are choosing to ignore for the time being. I will not do another post until the markets adjust to this reality. God speed BEARS!

PB said...

... never mind, I can't pull a Hurricane5 on you guys! This blog is way too good! The reason the markets haven't cracked yet, is 'cause many people don't know how fubard' they really are, it shd be sinking in soon enough. And all this at a time the Fed decides NOT to report M3 any longer! How flippin' convenient!

Anonymous said...

PB

I hope you are right. You rock!!

Dead bear

The Hube said...

Darcy

You got a link or source for that? I'd like to read the whole thing.

Anonymous said...

Some one (da' bulls) are not doing their homework (or the math) on the amount of risk in these markets. By my calculation, the DOW shd be at 9800 right now. Maybe it will adjust by month end!

Your anonymous blogger

Anonymous said...

RTP, short first thing tomorrow morning. Stop over yesterdays close. Looks good, my fellow bears.

Anonymous said...

how come you dont link to any other blogs just the IED sites?

downosedive said...

bsi - you appear to be confusing me with the guy that posted a request for help on his heavy short positions on the Naz and was about to be forced out because he had reached his margin limit. I have posted many times and included by heavy losses on the DJA (sometimes realing in pain!). The theme from a number of my past posts have been repeated on latter occassions by other posters, presumably because they have reached a similar conclusion. So I fail to understand your post, as I said, I can only conclude you are confusing me with someone else

Anonymous said...

bulleater,

I don't think we'll break down today. If anything i think we will start our final leg up before starting the 4 year cycle decline. Still think september ES will hit 1309 over the next few days before we get a real pullback.

the trader II

Anonymous said...

Nosey,

Whatever. If I mistake you for someone else, I apologize.

IBD take:

...The Nasdaq climbed as much as 0.5% minutes into the session but quickly reversed course and swung to a 0.6% loss just after noon EDT.

But the composite found a second wind and rebounded for a 0.1% gain. The S&P 500 showed similar action and closed up 0.2%. Volume ended slightly higher on the NYSE, lower on the Nasdaq...

it's been a quiet week on Wall Street, with volume well below average in the past four sessions. That's acceptable late-August action after landmark gains last week, the Nasdaq's biggest in more than three years. Eventually you'll want to see the market pick up again, though.


Leading stocks' action lacked luster overall. The IBD 100 sank 0.4% for the session despite higher oil prices and resulting gains for many energy stocks. Today's Market Pulse also shows more leading stocks down than up in brisk volume.

Small caps also lagged, as the S&P 600 gave up 0.2%...



(My comment... The desire to take on risk via IBD 100, SP600, and Russell 2000 appears to have left the mkt. Hence the moves in the DJIA/SP 500 as "safe" havens).

bsi87

Anonymous said...

the 'biggies' will be the last to fall ... can't hang in there for much longer!

Look for a Bernanke inspired rally today.

Trader Fred

Anonymous said...

Short SYKE NURO NVT...

Anonymous said...

Wow, the PPT is really showing some conviction this morning.

Can't let those indices drop more than 50 points, apparently.

Anonymous said...

PSSSTTTTTTTTT..........

THINGS are pretty shiity out there on the landscape. Iran wants to muke th emid east and another hurricane is maybe heading for the gulf. INFLATION is not easing and GDP is falling like a rock.

PSSSSTTTTT.....

market opened up down 45 or so ... LMAO ... they started the buiying again ... geez its a PHUCKING joke now. THEY the super banks working for the ppt will not let this market act rationally. well, when it falls. it will fall hard.

Anonymous said...

I think it's funny that the talking heads are pounding the table on Technology stocks lately.

The big players are clearly 100% loaded to the gills on tech stocks and now need to unload them. So they point to the fact that they've been beaten down since May, and now all the money is just flowing into tech stocks.

My question is: why would tech stocks be any better than any other stocks at this point?? Wouldn't they be WORSE??

Anonymous said...

i love seeing the indexes go green..... from a point decline. there is a BIG PURSE that is pumping this market like I have NEVER seen before.

Anonymous said...

CNBC says everything is OKAY ... not to worry.

lol

Anonymous said...

this headline was printed before the markets went green ....

"Stocks line up for Friday rise"

Anonymous said...

hahah cnbc, pathetic program.

Anonymous said...

I do have to admit that I actually like Bob Pisani. In May and June when the markets were falling, he was really pretty realistic with his expectations and kept cautioning people that "it's not over yet" after the first down leg. He kept calling for the high-volume washout days before things got better.

I like it that he tells it like it is for the most part.

Otherwise, yeah, I have no use for CNBC. Lots of bullish programs and cheerleaders.

Anonymous said...

Bob Pisani is ALWAYS wrong! please don't pick 1 or 2 statements that he made which turned out to make some sense. He makes around 1000 comments a day, so his probability is at the best 0.000000001 %

If you want to try it out, go buy the stocks he likes. I can guarentee you that you will lose money.

Anonymous said...

Well, that could be. As I said, I saw him back in May and June when I was out of town. I don't watch TV during the day, so I'm probably missing out on the 1000 wrong comments that he makes.

Doesn't really matter much to me. I don't pay attention to those people anyways -- if you're listening to TV journalists and reporters to make your investment decisions, then you really should just walk away from the markets.

The only reason I mentioned Bob Pisani is that while everyone else was panicking and throwing their hands up in the air during the May/June declines, Bob was at least being realistic and didn't seem to be affected all that much by the huge 100-point swings in the markets.

Maybe I just caught him on a couple of good days, who knows.

Riley said...

Hey Tim, great blog! Was hoping you take stock requests: What do you think of shorting LVS?

Anonymous said...

re:OIH

Adding to short position. Rallying up to ST resistance with the "storm".

bsi87

Anonymous said...

oih is a little difficult to short since you can only buy and short in 100 share lots.

2 other oil etfs are PXJ and IEO, alot cheaper in share price, but from my broker they are not shortable.

Anonymous said...

use snpix to short in various situations.

bsi87

Anonymous said...

dont really know why anyone would be shorting oih or any oil stock given the circumstances present today.

iran is buying time with all their agreeing and disagreeing with UN sanctions. in the meanwhile they continue to pursue the development of n weapons.

the president of iran wants the total destruction of israel as do many of the countries in the mideast. a forced "democracy" will never emerge from these countries and hundreds of years of history have proven this.

if anything, it is a severe recession that will hamper the price of oil.

my bet ( exressed in oil company calls ) is that an energy crisis will occur before the bear's expected market crash.

john

Anonymous said...

John

Let's review a few things.

When guys like Boone Pickens comes on 60 Minutes and sez oil to $100, do you think he's doing it to help the average Joe?

Look at all the things that have happened since Katrina. North Korea saber rattling, Iran nuclear issue, Lebanon, Nigeria, Venezula. Oil has been unable to sustain 80, let alone 100.

OIH is made up of oil service companies. While their services/products are in demand, their costs are going up, too. Margin compression.

The time to buy oil was when the Economist cover was "The World Awash in Oil" and they thought oil would go to 10 bucks. That was March, 1999. XLE was 22 bucks.

But no one wanted oil then, John. They wanted to be in tech.

What do people want to be long now, John? Oil.

You inadverently hit on the answer. Recession will help crimp demand and high prices will stimulate supply. Will it go to 40 bucks? Probably not but I don't need 40 for my OIH short to work out.

If an energy crisis does occur, my short positions will more than balance out the OIH short.

Trading is a chess game, gotta think 3 moves ahead.

Good luck.

Anonymous said...

PS OIH hit the 50 DEMA from the underside today and that area was rejected.

bsi87