Tuesday, September 05, 2006

"Severely Overbought"

Check out today's Kirk Report. It's a quick read, but quite interesting. Particularly since Mr. Kirk tends to be very, very bullish.

I'll do my real posting later today, but I just wanted to send a shout out.

34 comments:

Anonymous said...

This is sick sick market for bears.

Anonymous said...

As has been said many, many times before:

The market can stay irrational much longer than you can stay solvent.


Today is a perfect example of that. Everyone was expecting the "Big Boys" to get back into the swing of things today and start cashing in on some of their gains from the last 3-4 weeks of trading.

But they're not.

More buying today. Simply astounding. Thank God I closed my double-inverse ETF positions earlier last week. I just don't think I could handle these constant green days. But lots of charts are still showing more upside potential. I think the die-hard bears should really just sit this one out until there are clear signs of a market selloff. But I just don't see ANY signs whatsoever. Sentiment is 100% bullish.

Charts are overbought, but they are just getting more overbought.

-Tony

Anonymous said...

Just a quick note:

Briefing.com has upgraded its market view to "moderately bullish."


Hahaha. What a joke. They've had a "Neutral" view since the beginning of the year. And they decide to upgrade the markets NOW??

Man, things are getting nuts now. I guess it's time to go 100% bull-crazy!

Anonymous said...

Markets opened down and then reversed. Could be headed back down....

Anonymous said...

Joseph Battipaglia being bearish may be the fix for bears at this point.

Tim Knight said...

My solemn pledge is that if we ever do get into an honest to goodness, no kidding, every-day-it-goes-down bear market, I will not shut up about it. Jesus, I'm going to be obnoxious if that ever happens........you have been warned :-)

Anonymous said...

DOW BACK DOWN!!! Let hope the nasdaq drops as well before the 4pm closing.

Sanjay Sola said...

it looks like the Nasdaq will go to the 2220 level (200 day) and we could see a selloff there.


MDR and ALY look good.

also Apple over $70 on volume, might be a good buy.
Apple is a momo stocks so ride the momo once it breaks out of the trading range and sell the news for their product announcements in September.

AEOS is taking a nice breather. it's definitely a buy on a pullback.

Anonymous said...

The Housing slowdown of 2007 will create a huge recession, just sit back and relax bears. I have read articles upon articles showing perfect proof of a housing slowdown for probably at least 3-5 years. If the slow bulls dont understand this I feel sorry for them.

Anonymous said...

DOW AT INTRADAY LOWSSSS HAHAHAH

Leisa said...

Tim, I would welcome seeing your rejoicing. I suppose those oil shorts aren't doing so well today. I'm still gripping my basic SPY DIA puts. My bank thesis isn't working out too well, but I considered myself fairly warned by you. At least my KRY position is doing well today. Sold my TLT today. Made the divided date and gained a whopping 2%--at least it wasn't negative.

Anonymous said...

We'll know if this is for realz by 3pm. If it is, I have ES at 1291 within the next few days.

The Trader II

Anonymous said...

Patience.

At the end of every month there is the End of the Month effect which lasts into day 5/day 6 of the new trading month. Usually a rally to get the 401K monies, IRA monies into the mkts at higher prices.

Watching the Naz:VXN ratio which isn't extreme...yet. The % of stocks trading above their 50 and 200 DMA's is getting up there. Just waiting for a low risk entry point, meaning a climax type rally and reversal.

OIH looks like a nice setup to go short again.

The long bond trade worked out nicely. Glad I closed it out Thursday. Not sure whether I'll buy some TLT on a retracement or go long more GLD.

bsi87

Anonymous said...

why is the volume so low again?!!!

Anonymous said...

bsi87: Nice pickup on GLD under $61. As I said before, I grabbed SLV on the breakout and bought some GLD today on the semi-breakout to $640. The upper resistance trendline is around $635, so I'm hoping today's close and bullish price action is a good indicator that gold is headed higher.

At the very least, silver has major support at $12.50 and gold has solid support around $620. Either way, I think both gold and silver are in bull mode now and that it's time to buy on any dips.

Still waiting patiently to re-enter those shorts. But the sellers just haven't returned today as I thought they would. Let's hope you're right and that it will take a few days into the month before we see the new trend appear.

-Tony

Anonymous said...

'Anal'-ysts are back to playing their upgrade-downgrade games. AMD upgraded and downgraded in the same day by two different analysts.

amarneil said...

Did someone say short GOOGLE.....its up 6 ...3.3 million shares....GOPIP ...sept 380 calls up 50 % just today at 9..

:)

Anonymous said...

This market is really pathetic, all it does is move higher day after day with no signs of a sell-off. I hope next sell-off is a 1-2% drop across the board.

Anonymous said...

Tony,

Thx re GLD. Just sold this aftenoon.

I would trust nothing. Period. SLV looks like it's at the top of its 20 day BB. I'd look at it on a retracement to the 50 DEMA.

No volume on GLD and TLT going down. Someone's wrong, not sure who.

bsi87

Anonymous said...

saw this and had to laugh...

http://www.rallymonkey.com/oldvideo.php

Anonymous said...

aapl and amd ahahahahahahaha

Wasnt aapl just selling off last week to around 65 a share now 70+++....this arket needs a serious selloff

spinning_head said...

We haven't had a 1% down day on the DJIA since July 13. But there have been 1% or more up days 4 times since then. There is just no selling pressure.

Anonymous said...

re:PCU

Looking for 104-105.

re:NCC

Looking for 38.

bsi87

Anonymous said...

A trio of oil companies led by Chevron Corp. has tapped a petroleum pool deep beneath the Gulf of Mexico that could boost the nation's reserves by more than 50 percent.


hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm, all of the sudden.

This is toooo funny.

Anonymous said...

From yahoo.


The Dow Jones Industrial Average has surprised many investors, rising almost seven percent since mid-July. Will it make further gains this month?

Yes 70%
No 31%
15548 Votes to date

Anonymous said...

FUkK YOU BULLS! ILLETERATE FUKKERS!! I hope this market crashes by at least a 300 point DOW decline!

-I'll stay anonymous AND BROKE!

Anonymous said...

Look guys - its me who's doing this. I'm short, so the market keeps going up. It will only go down when I cover my shorts at a loss and buy some long. Maybe, if you say pretty please, just maybe I'll do that tomorrow.

Anonymous said...

HAHAHA!!!!

That is the funniest post from the broke anonymous.

I can feel it the reversal is near.
Now, If we could just test that 1324, on light volume.

costas1966

Anonymous said...

1:36pm i think the same you do.

I'm short as well, and everyday losing a little bit more money. My luck is I cover my short positions and go long and at that point the market drops 3% in 2 weeks. When I was long in June after I thought the drop was done with it dropped even further. Went short around Dow 11200-11250 and ever since then I'm down about 5-10% on some of my holdings.

Still no volume in this market. A top is certainly near. Looking for a 2% drop by end of Sept.

Anonymous said...

great day for bulls, and yet another bad day for the papa bears.

~ Nona said...

I'm reminded of that great one-liner: If you want to make God laugh, tell him your plans for the future.

To the point: maybe it would be better for us not to insist that the Market "has" to do this, that, or the other. The Market merely laughs.

A better approach might be to sit on the sidelines until the Market reveals what the future will be. Once revealed, THEN we can jump on.

D.A. said...

Real nice MACD Divergence on the OEX, We will see if it stays intact after this weeks reports and the big boys return to play.

Anonymous said...

Tim-- we are indeed technically overbought on short-term indicators. However, markets can stay overbought or oversold for a long time, and it is a common trader error to short/sell simply because a stock or market is "up a lot". Far better to wait for the market to begin to act bearish, for technicals to begin to break down, for the wind to change direction. As for Kirk-- please. The guy trades about one day out of a month anymore, if that. He doesn't short stocks, and built his reputation on a lot of interesting links and appealing graphics. On the rare occasion he features any charts, it's not unusual to see him targeting stocks that trade 20,000 shares a day and/or are borderline penny stocks. Find a better "source" to reference-- perhaps the market itself. Cheers.

Vince said...

Yes Costas, there's always something in the air when the market is about to reverse, or make a big move. If you read the comments on this board, which border on capitulation, or bulled up on the other side, then you know what time it is . .