Wednesday, September 13, 2006

Bulls, You are SO Good!

Luke: "I'm not afraid!"
Yoda: "You will be. You will be."

Well, the oil/gold plunge took a day off, and the markets were strong overall. Feh! It wasn't such a bad day for me. I've moved a lot of positions into cash and lightened up the gold/oil yesterday. I'm still 100% in puts, however, on those positions I do have (and there are something like 60 of them). Plenty of cash on the sidelines ready to deploy into more puts.

For your masochists out there, here are a few suggestions for shorts (or, more aggressively, puts) to consider. I've included contingent stop prices (e.g. the position gets closed if the stock closes above the cited value).

Black & Decker (BDK, $84.85)

Capital One Financial (COF, $82.22)

Morgan Stanley Tech Index ($MSH, $525.00)

Perennial favorite NutriSystem (NTRI, $65.75)

NASDAQ (QQQQ, 40.19)

Russell 2000 Index ($RUT, $742.26)

Lastly, I was so irked at the champions of censorship (and their 19th century sensibilities) coming down on me for my video that I wanted to post another one. The difference is that this one is just plain funny. I don't think it will offend subscribers to Readers Digest, purchasers of Metamucil, or occupants of corn-growing states. All the same, click at your own risk.

My blog. Your decision.


stockshaker said...

I like the QQQQ pick, just because it is a perfect setup for a downfall. but then again, the QQQQ is the perfect stock to play, since everything about how it bounces, breakes support/resistance is just pure beautiful with little headfake.

and Tim, way to take a stand! tell the babies to go find another sandbox to play in!

Tim Knight said...

If nothing else: spare me my life.

Anonymous said...

stockshaker I think you should trade PSQ or QID.

I bought more QID at the close today.

Trader 2006

spinning_head said...

Has anyone else been noticing how many down gaps created in June and July have been getting filled this week? They are all over the place.

Once the gaps have been filled the downturn can recommence. It's amazing how gaps almost always get filled.

Anonymous said...

wait did Cramer just mention ORACLE. HAHAHAHAAHA

I thought he hated that stock.

I have been bullish on ORCL since 12-14, think it goes to 20+ in 2007. That is one stock im bullish on.

Trader 2006.

PB said...

spinning_head ... nice observation. Gaps almost ALWAYS get filled, specially on 'good quality' stocks.

The inflation numbers will have to be damned restrained for this market to head much higher. It all seems baked-in right now.

Anonymous said...

SNDK is looking great here..... for a short. Closed at its lows and a higher high and is still below its short term trendline.....

stockshaker said...

Hey Trader 2006 - I've taken a look at those two. I'm not fond of the liquidity in them - specially since I like to trade a mass number of option contracts on the QQQQ (the QQQQ's are my bank - and I know that stock's cycle like the back of my hand...), and I like to know immediately if i can get into/out of a play.

I'd be interested to find if the QQQQ can break the 40 resistance. Volume still above 30 day average, but less than yesterday. My Macd indications show its at overbought territory, and it hasn't been this high since January - which makes me a little nervous if I were to open any long positions in the QQQQ

Im still liking more downfall in the oil and related industries.

A lot of the key stocks in this group are kissing the underbelly of a price channel/resistance. And that means the lsat two days could (possibly) be just a breather for more downfall in the (hopefully near) future.

I haven't closed any positions in the oil/related sectors, just because I have more spread plays, rather than just straight puts/calls.

My only Long that I would even consider at this time is MTD - nice breakout from 62, and good volume on the breakout.

The markets are on your side (bull) right now, but the pullback (I believe) is still very much required.

wincity said...

Tim, you're funnier when bulls run rampant.

"Take anything you want."
"Spare my life please."
"I was robbed by two bulls."

I'm sure it'll soon be bulls' turn to learn these sentenses. Only they say "robbed by two bears".

Anonymous said...

Holy cow....just noticed something using the charter 3 program.....

SPY the s&P closed at its high of 132.22 in May.....hmmmmmm exactly at the same weird is that........not that I would ever be calling a double top.....but just something to note...... said...

Nothing for nothing but this site is way too high quality for those stupid videos. They are not even that funny ... at least not funny enough to take flack over. And they definitely can be deemed offensive to women, whom I am sure there are a few of in your audience.

My two bits ....leave the tacky videos for The Man Show and stick to what you do best.

Tim Knight said...

"Nothing for nothing but this site is way too high quality for those stupid videos. They are not even that funny ... at least not funny enough to take flack over."

What do YOU consider funny? Garfield the Cat cartoons? Family Circus? Network sitcoms? Just ignore what you don't want to see. Personally, I think these are a riot.

Anonymous said...

WTF is wrong with these people. Don't they understand why blogs are popular or for that matter what the purpose of a blog is. It is Tim's blog and he will post whatever he wants, and you can go screw yourself if you don't like it.

Anonymous said...

ok back to the markets bitches! ... QQQQ's have risen on declining volume, but have sold off on increasing volume. Also, the Q's have a 9 cent gap to fill at $37.75. Seems way overextended, but might make a run here for $40.25, but it's outta breath so short are a safer bet here.

Good luck.

And all those who don't like Tim's sense of humour, please feel free to do a post yourself so that we may see what you laugh at!

Keep up the good work Tim! I find Japanese entertainment humourous as well!

- Trader Fred

chart trader said...

Tim, love those videos. Its these little touches of individuality - the titles, the photos, and now the videos - which keep us coming back to your blog.

You keep posting what you want, and if anyone doesn't like it, they don't have to watch it.

Sanjay Sola said...

I hope the retail numbers are good tomorrow and the bulls can push the Nasdaq to 2240-2250. 3 up days in a row, a 90 point Nasdaq advance with the market in overbought conditions and near resistance would be a great shorting opportunity.

in this market anything can happen. you have to be on your toes and be flexible. but this market will need to pull back to surpass those levels.

Tim Knight said...

What's important to remember is that the videos weren't made to be funny. They're serious. Which is what makes them funny.

/sigh/ After a while if a joke requires this much explaining, it's not worth it. Anyhoo. Back to non-videos. Death to bulls. Long live bears. And all that.

Good night, and good luck.

Anonymous said...

One of the best blog sites ever . . . like the people who remind us all that this is your personal space, not some clown trading site. I love the humor!!! Your pictures on the charts are great and the video hit a homerun with me. I agree it was not meant to be funny, which makes it hilarious!:0

Go down or pull back damn market. I don't mind a bull, just don't like the upward fight. Need to learn to keep those runners in position and quit exiting for the top.

Anyhow, best luck you raskly traders!

Anonymous said...

sanja are u buying the dip?

Bollywood said...

Is this a sign of capitulation by Tim Knight? Im not sure yet, maybe after a nigger and then a wetback video will we finally see Tim Knight capitulated. Can't wait.

*FLUSH* The sound of Tim Knights professionalism and account going down the drain...

**Dont flame me/ censor me. Im just being sarcastic and funny like Tim!

Hbarr said...

Love the videos. Come on, Toshi, pound those bulls!

Anonymous said...

I assume since its option expiration, everybody is taking it easy here

Sanjay Sola said...

anonymous 6:38am,

i'm just holding my stocks.

looking for some volume in ORB. stock looks like it wants to run soon. it will run big time when it moves. very solid chart and low volume consolidation.

smallswinger said...

My Small Cap Swing indicator moved to a LONG signal early on 9/12/06. It has moved to +55 in just over 2 days. This is going to be a short-duration move (less than 4 days), probably moving back to SHORT by Friday or sooner.

Here are the recent values of my Small Cap Swing Indicator:

. . . . . .Small
. . . . . . Cap . . . . . . . . .Russell
. . . . . .Swing . . . . . . . . .2000 . . . Cumulative
Date . . . Ind . .Signal . . % Chg . . . . % Chg

08/28 . . +05 . .LONG . . +1.1% . . . . +1.1%
08/29 . . +23 . .LONG . . +1.2% . . . . +2.3%
08/30 . . +39 . .LONG . . +0.8% . . . . +3.1%
08/31 . . +48 . .LONG . . +0.0% . . . . +3.1%
09/01 . . +52 . .LONG . . +0.1% . . . . +3.2%
09/05 . . +62 . .LONG . . +0.8% . . . . +4.0%
09/06 . . -19 . .SHORT. ..-2.1%. . . . . -2.1%
09/07 . . -43 . .SHORT. ..-0.8%. . . . . -2.9%
09/08 . . -61 . .SHORT. ..+0.3% . . . . -2.6%
09/11 . . -72 . .SHORT. ..-0.1%. . . . . -2.7%
09/12 . . +18 . .LONG . . +2.4% . . . . +2.4%
09/13 . . +41 . .LONG . . +0.8% . . . . +3.2%
09/14 . . +55 . .LONG . .. -0.4% . Intraday @ 11:30am ET

Normal LONG target: . . +65 to +75 (max: +95)
Normal SHORT target: . -65 to -75 (max: -107)

The last LONG truncated at +62. This LONG signal is now at +55, meaning it will likely switch to SHORT any time now.

I am now 100% invested in SHORT positions. (Pray for me)

amarneil said...

Will buy puts on 12.30 EST....the September 400 puts...GOPUT...they EXPIRE TOMORROW.....will sell them TODAY..

Anonymous said...


Got stopped out yesterday. Never underestimate the madness of crowds.


Long at 36.01. Trading at bottom of 20 day Bollinger Band.


Long at 119.74. Bottom of 20 day BB.

Do your own homework.


Anonymous said...



Anonymous said...

Damned Bulls are too greedy!!!!!!!!!!!!

I hate bull!!!!!!!!!!!!!

stockshaker said...

hey TA guys - how reliable are boll. bands? I dont' use them at all, just becuase I've found that when it hits upper/lower ranges, it kinda just trudges around before moving back to mean, but you can easily come to the same conclusion based on stocastics, and the reversal can be seen by candlesticks.

Bsi87, you have put posts indicating the stock in relation to 20day BB's i'm guessing you place a lot of emphasis on them, as they have been reliable to you in the past (just as I place a lot of emphasis on the MACD, or TK places a lot of emphasis on Fib retracements...)

am i right?

stockshaker said...

ps. oil/related industries are falling again. NUE and TS still look like good plays. But im biased since Im playing 'em.

PD and FTO also look good, but a lot of the action has taken place already.

Anonymous said...

re: WMT

Threw on a short at 48.07. Buy to cover around 48.75.


buy limit 57.28

do your own homework.

correction: SLV

long at 109.75.



I use Bigcharts and look at Bollinger Bands, Candlesticks, Stochastics, and MACD, all on a daily chart along with 20/50 DEMA. Then I just close my eyes and trade. (GRIN)

Anonymous said...

What's wrong with this market? It just won't die!

And I know that as soon as I go long, it will collapse.

Anonymous said...

what a joke? Look at KBH and TOL. I keep loading this cakes (I mean puts) :-)

chart trader said...

One good thing about today is that they didn't bring out the afternoon pumps. Its just a steady 'don't let it fall' stream of small orders all day. Hopefully this means that the big boys have lifted the market to where they want it for triple witching tommorrow, and that Monday should be a good down day.

I had shorted SIRF at 26.50 on Tuesday, spent a tense day yesterday when it went over 27, and thankfully covered today at 25.2 this morning. The stupid thing is going up again, so I'm waiting for it to cross 26 and may short it again, depending on the indicators. Good volatility but rather unpredictable, may be due to the relatively low volume.

Anonymous said...

thanks for your posts!! I'm enjoying some of you recent picks.


Sanjay Sola said...

market can't pass the resistance and the commodities market is plummetting. not a whole lot of breakouts recently. this action is not exactly bullish.
i will play it safe here.

stockshaker said...

Yeah, I think someone recommended a good bol. band book. but is it worthwhile to? I mean, you can load up with all the tech indicators you want, its how you find that it works with your trading strategy is what you have to find... I used to use RSI, but found it to be pretty redundant to stochastics.

Interesting to say the least. .. thx bsi87

I would be weary to be loading up on puts on housing. I know, I had posted that they are goldmines, but they are having quite the challenge breaking through support levels, and if you are buying options, I don't know if you want to gamble time depreciation against the last few months that it has been having at a pretty strong support...

I had to get out of MTH, luckily before its 4% jump yesterday or was it the day before, can't remember, don't really care. It will come up on my scans when it ready to fall...

Anonymous said...

any thoughts on CAL? ripe for some shorting? Is there any doubt that the airlines will file for another round of bankruptcy in 2007?

Anonymous said...

What a day, it was boring if you ask me, sold some my QID in the morning, still holding a position in it though. Tomorrow is the day everyone is waiting for. Im sure it will be volatile. Again anything hotter than the core and were dropping hard tomorrow, anything showing no inflation and the markets could easily put in a 1-2% rally. Will be interesting.

Noticed oil dropping again today along with natural gas. NG now trading below $5.00, amazing. Will wait for another 5-10% pullback in energy/oil to go long. PXE $16.00 and PXJ around 17-17.25 look like good buys for a bounce.

GOLD/SILVER, looks like they may be headed down. Looking to see gold bottom around 525 and Silver around 9.00-9.50. Would be a buyer of GDX only around 30-32 area.

Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

CAL and AMR rising on oils drop. If oil gets back to 68-70 a barrel its back to 22 on CAL and the high teens on AMR.

Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

Someone pointed out on another site that after the September options expiration date the DOW has dropped about 500 points in each of the last 3 years. I looked back and this seems accurate. It also appears that for every year since 1999 options expiration was either part of a big decline or the last positive bump before a materal decline into October.

Anonymous said...


To make things more interesting, I plot the stock, ETF, or index against TLT or VXN and look at the RSI.

Right now the Naz:VXN is 62. It hit 70 on Sept 1 and then we saw the Naz fall off the table. So in brief, it sez the Naz needs to rally a bit and/or the VXN needs to drop a bit for a better setup to go short.

On the flip side, $gold:TLT shows RSI at 25, hence my decision to start to build positions in GLD, GDX, SLV, etc. Actually SLV shows a better potential than gold but I'm playing them all.

to everyone, do your own homework.

re:airlines. Might be easier to go long oil than trying to short airlines. or short IYT. no positions in airlines. long ECA.


Anonymous said...

bsi you mentioned:

Right now the Naz:VXN is 62. It hit 70 on Sept 1 and then we saw the Naz fall off the table. So in brief, it sez the Naz needs to rally a bit and/or the VXN needs to drop a bit for a better setup to go short.

I have to disagree, tomorrow economic data can take that totally out of perspective.

Trader 2006.