Animal Mother

I am channeling Animal Mother. Bulls, you have a real chance of losing control. Stay sharp!


Some folks (well, one - Health Affairs - only God knows what on earth that name is supposed to mean............) suggested I would falsely claim I called the fall. I didn't call the precise fall (otherwise I'd be on Time magazine), but, come on, I gave some pretty clear warnings.

On Saturday, my entry was appropriately entitled, "I'm Starting to Like This Market". I wrote:

The Russell 2000 has been unkind, but I think we're over the worst of this. Here is a sixty day intraday graph; the head and shoulders target of 30 points to the upside has been plainly reached. Clear as a bell.

On Monday, once again, an appropriate title - "Crossroads" - where I wrote:

Accept my good wishes that the higher highs/higher lows pattern be broken in the coming weeks. The bulls must be conquered, and breaking the pattern is the first step in breaking their spirit.

Finally, after the fall, on Tuesday Night...

...as for tomorrow - - again, I haven't looked at a single chart yet, but my early guess is a quick drop in the first half hour and then a big rally afterwards. Not hundreds of point, but maybe 100.

And what, dear readers, did the market do today? There was a quick drop in the first half hour. And then it rallied 100 points (well, 137 at its peak, but you get the idea).

Let's turn to the delicious Abby Joseph Cohen and see what she had to bark today......(this is just an image; don't bother clicking on it for the video; you have to go to cnbc.com for that).


In the video interview I watched (on perpetual rah-rah CNBC, which I never, ever watch, except in the rarest of instances), she stated that the market's "valuation, if anything, has gotten a little bit better". Yep, if you liked the Dow at 12,700, you'll love it at 7,000. She goes on to say that she (it is "she", right?) is targeting a 10% increase this year........and that's conservative....."assuming a deceleration in ...profit growth..."

AJC says of the U.S. equity market......"our market is underpriced....[and represents] very good value." Of course it does, you devilish temptress! The interviewer asked her what, if anything, would give her concern about the market. Her multi-million-dollar a year answer? "Events within the economy." Well, my scrumptious little sex kitten, you certainly know how to earn your keep. Rorrrrwwwww........

Let's put our brains back in and get serious. How high will the Dow go up (ahem - "recover" - - from the "correction") before we get a chance to really rake the bulls over again? Cast thy eyes this way:


.....and this.......


........and this.........


The $VIX pulling back to the horizontal line shown would make things more tempting. My God, the bid/ask spread on S&P options today was wider than Al Gore's waistline. (I think the man has decided to consume - live - anyone not living green. Notwithstanding his $30,000/year house bill on electricity and gas).


I'm going to break form and offer a few bullish ideas. Now, don't get me wrong. I don't actually buy any of this crap. I just get sick of being called a permabear. So I grit my teeth and throw some buys out now and then. Here's ABT:


LEH pulled back beautifully to its fib fan:


And SHLD, which I've mentioned repeatedly, remains a handsome graph:


I received many, many emails over the past 24 hours thanking me (some just in general, others with multi-hundred percent gains from my ideas). One kind gent even sent me a video. I share it with you now. Here, my friends, is how the bulls are coping with the market. (Although the bull is disguised as a giraffe here):

The Price of Tea in China

I am writing this Wednesday morning, a few minutes into the opening bell. I stayed up until 2 going through charts and resumed at 5:20 this morning. So this is a late post, but it is in the context of Tuesday's mini-crash.

It has been a long, long time since I have awakened to such a beautiful sight on Tuesday morning:


In the end, Tuesday turned out to be the best of times and the worst of times. It was the best of times since it was spectacularly to finally see a real fall, just like I had hoped for the previous day (see my Monday post). It was the worst of times since, for my index options, I closed them out when the Dow was down just 120 points. I made money on all my options, but there was a huge amount left on the table. Deeply disappointing, but nice to see the smart bears beat the dim bulls for a change.


A few interesting notes from yesterday:

• I had a record amount of blog traffic. It's weird, because usually my traffic is very steady. Maybe my regulars came back repeatedly to see what crazy Tim was going to say. Or maybe those who visit me occasionally figured it would be a better post than most.
  
• A number of people wrote me emails to thank me for the profits they made. I appreciate that, but the credit goes to you! I'm just here sharing my thoughts, for better or worse. What you do with them is up to you.
  
• Quite a few people keep asking about the sales of my book (especially, strangely, my detractors). I have no idea! I do track its rank on Amazon, and it briefly made the "Best Sellers" list on the business books/investing section, but remember, this thing hasn't even hit any stores yet. It is just off the press. Only time will tell, but I'm pretty proud of my book. I think it's a good read!
  
• On a personal note, I've been waiting for the perfect opportunity to use the subject I chose for yesterday's post ("I Am Become Death"), a reference to Animal Mother in Full Metal Jacket. I felt it fitting!

I think few stocks better represent the broken promises of this fraudulent bull market that Google. What a snoozer this thing has become! Just look how it's been doing a whole lot of nothing since November. This is a relatively blue chip high tech stock, but you can just hear the air coming out of the tires.


If you look at the NASDAQ over the long term, you can see we might have a loooong way to go before we reach bottom.


Looking at the same index with a shorter time horizon, we plainly bounced off the upper resistance line.


The Dow Industrials were just crazy yesterday. I was - - and this is further proof of just not God, but a Cruel God - - trapped in my car virtually all of yesterday, taking dangerous glances at my Treo. The market was down 200 or so for the longest time, then it was suddenly down 500. I honestly thought the president had been killed or something. But it was just this orgy of sell orders all at once, I suppose.


Looking at the long term industrials, one could easily argue that yesterday was an anomaly. There aren't any major trendlines broken here. Just some very shaken bulls.


The Russell 2000, which I've mentioned quite a bit as a good index to buy puts on, took a better tumble than most yesterday.


And just look at the QID (and its volume!) It's pretty clear there is a growing interest in this double-inverse funds!


Looking at the $SPX, you can see a brief pause about half an hour into the trading day. This is the point where I - shame on me, shame on me - did an "ad hoc" close (which I had forbade myself from doing). Pure idiocy.


But here is perhaps the most interesting chart I have for you today - the SPX on a daily basis. Take a good long look at those trendlines that made up the channel, above which the index had broken out. And to which point did the index fall yesterday? That's right - almost precisely at the same trendline! If any bulls are ready this, you can take that as an encouraging sign.


The volatility index went stark raving mad. This almost certainly cannot sustain itself.


A close look at the $VIX shows the amazing breakout. This borders on unbelievable.


I had no position on the $XAU, but I wish I had puts on this bad boy. The plunge in China had a profound effect on metal prices.


Oh, and the Dow Transports breakout I mentioned last week as great news for the bulls now is rendered moot. The pattern has been shattered.


Continental Airlines has broken its trendline. I've pointed out the target on this. I own puts on this (which I bought prior to the breakdown), and I have high hopes for this position.


One other stupidity on my part - I closed out my CME puts yesterday at a fantastic profit. But the profit became much more fantastic as the CME kept falling. These expensive stocks can make for fantastic puts, especially when volatility is low (as it was not long ago!)


Lastly, Goldman Sachs - - whose puts I've been derided for owning - - is another winner. I'm hanging on to this, although I sold my MER just to trim my investment bank exposure. But you can see by the trendlines there's plenty of room left to fall.


I apologize again for the late post, but I hope I made up for it by the size of this one! Thanks again for all the congratulations and pats on the back. I'll let you know if any bullish Australians have left any cowardly voicemails for me.

I Am Become Death

Oh, now you know I'm going to have fun writing about today. I can't wait. Come back later on. By about 5 p.m. PST or so.


Update! Folks, I am dying to do today's blog. But it's 6:30 p.m. and I've yet to even look at my first chart! And the comments section looks like a fistfight, which I always enjoy.

Please be patient with me. I don't care if I have to stay up all night, I am going to get this entry done.

But let me save you a little bit of wondering......

(a) Health Affair, no, I didn't "call" this fall, and I never would have claimed I did. Indeed, look at yesterday's post. I talked about how we were at a major crossroads. And how I had trimmed my positions somewhat (index only - - I kept 100% of my puts on equities).

(b) Every single one of my positions - every one - was a put or a short. Now, hurray for me, BUT, I left a HUGE amount of money on the table (to the tune of six figures) by bailing on my shorts half hour into the trading day. So don't ever claim I am saying I am such perfect trader. Good for me for hanging on to my 30 put positions. But SHAME on me for closing out my index options, ALL OF WHICH AT LEAST DOUBLED BY LATER IN THE DAY.

(c) As for tomorrow - - again, I haven't looked at a single chart yet, but my early guess is a quick drop in the first half hour and then a big rally afterwards. Not hundreds of point, but maybe 100. I'll say more once I've look at the aforementioned charts.

Have some coffee and come back later (or wake up early!) for more.....

Crossroads

Greetings from the snowbound tundra of the California Sierras. To me, the definition of civilization is anywhere with an Internet connection, so I'm still quite content.


Today was a good day, but I can't help but be concerned that we will have, yet again, another swing up. I'm not saying it's going to happen. I am saying that it seems to keep happening, and the most polite word I can think to describe this wave-like action is "annoying."


What we need, of course, is a clear, obvious, idiotic-comments-suddenly-cease kind of break in the market. Until then, I have reduced my exposure somewhat with the worrisome anticipation that this stupid market might find its legs once again. The $NDX at least had a nice bearish engulfing pattern today.


The $OEX shows a wonderful example of just how monstrous the divergence is between the price action and the RSI. This market is running on fumes. But there are a lot of people who like sucking those fumes. The bulls always radically outnumber the bears. We are a lonely bunch, aren't we?


The S&P 500 is just another example of this higher highs/higher lows market. In fact, to make matters worse, the lows don't seem to be dipping as low. There are some bright spots, of course. The investment banks are starting to weaken. Some issues (like the CME) are finally making some real progress downward. But others - like RIMM and MSTR - have surprised me with their incredible strength (obviously I got stopped out on these - I may be dumb, but I'm not an idiot).


The Dow Transports, which I've pointed out should be providing comfort to the bulls, is at risk of breaking its inverted head and shoulders pattern. This could be nothing more than a pullback. But if it falls much more, the very clear bullish pattern will have been neutered.


I mentioned Continental Air (CAL) before. The head and shoulders pattern on this is forming nicely. We could be seeking a neckline break in a day or two.


And although CRDN as a whole isn't an exciting chart to me, I was blown away at the size of this bearish engulfing pattern. This is like the John Holmes of these patterns - I rarely see them this big.


Accept my good wishes that the higher highs/higher lows pattern be broken in the coming weeks. The bulls must be conquered, and breaking the pattern is the first step in breaking their spirit.

I'm Starting to Like This Market

I am starting to like this market more and more. Several reasons:

• People are starting to wake up to what a train wreck the housing market and defaulted mortgages are going to be
  
• We've got a new financial mania on our hands - insanely huge private equity buyouts - that provide a catalyst for financial catastrophe. Remember the failure of the Japanese to buy out UAL back in 1989? That alone caused the mini crash of 1989 - - and that is a puny deal compared to the absurd BSD type deals going on right now.
  
• Upward momentum is rapidly waning
  
• The charts I have been waiting impatiently to start falling are finally doing so - - the investment banks.....the financial service companies......the real estate con artists. They're all starting to crack

The Russell 2000 has been unkind, but I think we're over the worst of this. Here is a sixty day intraday graph; the head and shoulders target of 30 points to the upside has been plainly reached. Clear as a bell.


The S&P 500 is now on the wrong side of the tracks (for the bulls). Look at the broken trendline, and observe how the momentum is leaking out.


Cabot (COG) looks like a good short term bear play.


Lehman (LEH) is representative of the investment banks, finally losing their luster.


I don't have any particular on MWP, but this is a good example of hyperbolic mania.


Recent recommendation NVR had almost 40 points whacked off it yesterday.


Maybe our filthy paws are starting to get a grip on this deluded market. I hope so.

Internet Desert

I will be doing my post tomorrow morning. My Internet connection has been extremely unreliable, which is sort of like cutting off my oxygen supply. It's certainly made me a lot less charming to be around. Come back Saturday!

Shave This....

Let's face it. The whole world's gone crazy. The Dow is pushing toward 13,000 just for the sake of going to 13,000. A third-rate Marilyn Monroe dies and creates a courtroom circus. And a rich, beautiful young woman loses her mind and decides to pattern her life after Colonel Kurtz...


A quick entry tonight. First, for you FOREX types, the NZD/USD seems to have pushed high enough to once again represent a low-risk short trade. I'd put a stop at .7070


The NASDAQ 100 has been terribly strong - - reaching a six year high today in the face of a weak day on the Dow. It's tough to short in the face of such strength, but at least it's clear the $NDX is at the top of its rising channel.


ANDE, a long suggestion I've made many times, has all the right stuff.


Bear Sterns (BSC) sported a nice bearish engulfing pattern today. I'm going to buy more puts on this tomorrow.


I've been hanging on to my CME puts for ages, and I was starting to get bored of them. Today the CME fell over 17 points, and it's potentially going to snap its trendline. Now it's getting interesting.


Research in Motion (RIMM), the stock that never seems to break, is high enough to keep the stop-loss level reasonable.


Finally, Ryland (RYL), mentioned here as a short on multiple occasions, is accelerating its downward trek.

Grinding the Gears

I appreciate everyone's patience while I got my entry done for the day. I went on a whirlwind adventure to Florida to speak (five times) at an investment conference.

Many people were asking me about my book. You can buy it from Amazon right now, and I imagine it will be in your local bookstore within a few weeks. I see it's zoomed from #400,000 to #3,800 in just a couple of days. Harry Potter, look out!

I was really disappointed in the market on Tuesday (yesterday). It started with a quick drop, and then it punched and clawed its way back up to another lifetime high on the Dow.

The bulls are ungodly powerful right now. The reason is simple. This entire basis for people buying into this market is no different than the reason any six year old offers for doing anything..........."everyone else is doing it!" And that kind of sheeplike behavior has been creating graphs like that of the Dow Composite, which is straight up, grinding higher, and higher, and higher, annihilating us poor bears the entire way......


The Dow, which fell nearly 50 points today, continues to offer a flicker of hope for the ursine among us.


The S&P 100 likewise shows a continued reduction in upward momentum as viewed via the RSI.


Today I'd like to offer a mix of both short and long suggestions. As always, check them out more deeply for yourself. Let's start with the shorts. BP, mentioned here a couple of times, pushes closer and closer to breaking its huge head and shoulders pattern.


Carnival, also a repeated mention, looks better too.


CNX is another short energy play, in spite of recent strength in the OIH.


EXC seems to have clearly broken its upward trendline.


Now let's break tradition and pull up some bullish ideas. The balance of today's post is bullish suggestions. Starting with Genentech (DNA), where I've highlighted some similar patterns in the past and their subsequent upward breakouts.


FedEx, moving on to new highs.


HOLX also looks good, and has strong volume backing up its breakout.


IPS is also good for aggressive bulls.


The trouble I am having with conjuring up bullish ideas is that it's tough finding safe bullish patterns in a market this high. I could point out plenty of momentum plays, but I'm not really into taking advantage of the Greater Fool theory.

Good night, and I'll see you after the close Thursday.

Late Post....

Update...I'm not going to be able to do a post until this afternoon. Sorry for the delay, but I'm catching up from a long business trip. I promise plenty of charts this evening!

I'm Goin' to Disneyworld!

As a counterpoint to God's divine message to me earlier this week, Satan himself appeared to me via the wrapper of my bread this morning. I feel I am at the vortex of a holy war. Get thee behind me, buttered toast!


On a more secular note, I received my first shipment of my book this morning at the office. Joy and rapture! It's been a very long time since I've held a book that I wrote.


This was a strong week for the bulls - particularly Wednesday - the bears can only hold on to the sliver of hope that upward momentum is still waning. That's not a heck of a lot to hang your hat on, though.


Gold and Silver Index ($XAU) is in a bit of a stuck pattern. Shorting this with a stop at $145 might be a good play (via going long puts).


Crude oil to me seems to be in a solid bearish pattern. If you believe this, there are all kinds of ways to take advantage of it (such as OIH, XOM, RIG......)


I've gotten flack for my bullish suggestion of ANDE, but this still seems like a clean pattern to me.


My NVDA puts picked up a bit of steam today.


I've got to hand it to the SHLD bulls - this is a dynamite looking chart. Who would have ever thought Sears, of all things, would be a superstar?


I'm going to be in Orlando for a few days for my employer's mega-event. I'll be speaking a few times. Come up and say hello. Assassins - - aim for my head!

Seven Nation Army

I'm gonna fight 'em all
A seven nation army couldn't hold me back
They're gonna rip it off
Taking their time right behind my back

Another day, another lifetime high on the Dow. C'est la vie.

I mentioned BHI as a short a few days ago , and it got walloped. Even put options that are several months out doubled in value today. Oil in general (be it OIH or a component) is pretty attractive to my bearish eyes right now.


I'm pretty proud of this graph, so click it to see a big version. It's a minute bar of the NZD/USD forex trade I've been suggesting. The symmetry between the phases I've shown here is really intriguing to me. I've numbered it for clarity. I've been trading it both up and down (long and short) during the most recent cycle. I imagine we're about ready to head back into a long tumble now. This is a really fun currency to trade, in spite of the wide pip spread.


The Russell 2000 remains my favorite index on which to own puts right now. Put values have been getting creamed lately by (a) rapidly rising index values and (b) withering volatility premiums. A one-two punch. Call me crazy, but I am loading up on them at these levels.


Allstate (ALL) has a dainty head and shoulders pattern that I think is worth trading, since it seems to have fully retraced.


BBD has a clean relationship with its Fib retracement.


This is a bigger graph than I normally show - ten years - and it's of Goldman Sachs (GS). I still love this short.


HES is another fresh one I'd suggest you check out.


I've still got my IYR puts. They're under water, but just take a gander and how lofty this sucker is.


My MTH short is still solid. I am once again showing a bigger graph so you can understand how far this thing could fall.


OXY is another oil short worth examination.


PCU isn't as clear-cut, but it's at the top of a channel, and I'm going to nibble some puts on this one tomorrow.

St. Valentine's Day Massacre

As proof not only of God, but a cruel God, I found myself driving behind the following license plate this morning:


That's right. Go Dow. Bring me the head of Ben Bernanke!

I am understandably in no mood to look at charts right now. But at least I can remind everyone that I have been very suspicious of the short-lived breakdown in prices. Doing this blog this long has taught me to put plenty of asterisks next to my ruminations, and as I've said repeatedly, a breakdown hasn't happened. And until it does, the bulls own this market. Every tiny dip in prices during this godawful rally has been just a few quick days of bearishness, only to be whisked away into the land of new highs......


The strength of the Transports only confirms this belief. This is a new lifetime high for the Transports, and even the most bearish bear has to admit that the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports hitting new, never-before-seen highs on the same day is outright bullish for U.S. stocks.

Crazy Train

Time for a shameless plug. My book is rolling off the press right now. You can click here to go to Amazon if you'd like to pre-order a copy. I paid my way through college writing computer books, but it's been a very long time since I've had the thrill of seeing something I've written in a book store. I hope people enjoy reading it as much as I enjoyed writing it.


I've drawn a channel representing the NASDAQ 100 (which, in spite of a really strong general market today, is relatively weak). As you can see, we remain very much at the high end of this channel.


I've pointed out the huge divergence between the major indexes and their RSI. This holds true for $OEX as well.


Tomorrow is going to be really important. If we fall tomorrow, today may have been nothing more than a retracement. If we push higher, than we're probably looking at the umpteenth time that the bears have had a little hope injected into their system only to have it ripped away. Today's rise can be explained away. Any more rise could not - - we'd have to concede to the bulls yet again.


Capital One (COF) is still a possibility, even though it's holding up far longer than I ever expected.


John Deere (DE) remains at the high end of its channel, and it actually fell a bit today, in spite of a very strong Dow.


HealthNet (HNT) is approaching both its former high as well as the upper range of an upward-sloping trendline.


Interactive Data (IDC) has a rather toppy looking pattern and is worth a look.


Like I said, tomorrow is key. It was a very tough day for the bears today. Let's see if hope gets yanked away or is allowed to linger just a bit more.

Four Hundred

Today is my 400th post (huzzah!) May God grant me the strength to see it through to post number 500. And smite anonymous phone callers.

The stock market these days reminds me of a celebrity. With makeup on, they can be very sexy and alluring. Without the gloss and shine, however, it can be a scary sight.


The S&P was somewhat weak today, as was the market as a whole. This was a nice relief, since a springback from Friday's weakness would have heartened the bulls. However, we have to cut beneath 1417 to break the series of higher highs/higher lows. Otherwise, we're just going to continue to waste our lives waiting.


The $VIX is, understandably, pushing higher.


I'm kind of "charted out" for now, so let me share just a few. At long last, some of the commercial realty stocks are falling. Here's sky-high AIV, for example.


Amlyn (AMLN) remains a favorite short.


I've mentioned BP a bunch of times. The head and shoulders formation - and it's a huge one - continues to form nicely.


CNX is also in a topping pattern with a very clear stop-loss price.


And although I have no position in NutriSystem anymore (NTRI), I would be terrified being long this stock. It's in a huge no-man's-land right now, and there is very little in the way of support between its current price and........I won't even say how low.


On to post 401! See you tomorrow.

Well Put

Good day on the market today, bears. This time, after a look at a couple of indexes, I'm going to show just stocks on which I think puts might be a lucrative position. They have a number of properties in common - - the stocks are high priced (meaning the options can get really juicy). They have options with decent volume. And they seem to be running out of steam.

The stock market finally - FINALLY! - made its mind up on direction today, and it was down. As you can clearly see from the horizontal line of support, the moment it pushed through, it was party time.


Looking at the past several months, you can very clearly see that early in this bull phase the price action and RSI were lined up (green lines) and yet, for a couple of months or more, RSI and price action have been absolutely divergent (red lines).


Going back to an even wider time range, you can see how lofty the S&P 500 is right now. Which is why my puts went up so fast today.


But let's not get too excited yet (lest I get another cowardly voicemail from an Australian hermaphrodite). There have been many times that the market has taken a quick, exciting drop. I've marked each of them here with red lines. And each time, it shakes it off and simply moves on to new lifetime highs. So I'm willing to concede this may be fake-out number twenty thousand and six.


The rest of today's entry is just stock charts, pure and simple - - again, with the focus being on puts. I've mentioned many of these before, and own puts on most or all of them. Goldman Sachs (GS):


Cabot (COG):


Capital One (COF):


Bear Stearns (BSC):


AutoZone (AZO):


Merrill Lynch (MER):


MicroStrategy (MSTR):


Research in Motion (RIMM):


Textron (TXT):


Exxon Mobil (XOM):


Have a good weekend. To most of you, at least.

Double Top

In honor of the late Anna Nicole Smith, we will direct our attention to another artificially-inflated bubble without much intellect behind it which no one thinks will die so young: the U.S. stock market.

The $VIX is forming a pretty decent inverted head and shoulders pattern. I've drawn the neckline here. Clearly it would be beneficial for the bears for the $VIX to push its way above this neckline, thus completing the pattern.


The S&P 500 remains beneath its broken trendline. The huge divergence between the price action and the indicator is quite intact, with today finally registering a small downturn in the market after several days of doing basically nothing.


Much the same can be said of the Dow 30.


John Deere (DE) is at the top of a sharping ascending channel.


And Cummins (CMI), mentioned here recently, has put in a possible double top.


I put Boston Properties here (BXP) not to suggest it, but merely to marvel. It's incredible - simply incredible. Much came be same for any of the components of the Real Estate group (wasn't there supposed to be a deflating bubble? Guess that's just residential....)


Bear Stearns (BSC) is finally losing a bit of its steam.


Aetna is obeying its Fibonacci retracement very nicely.


Reynolds Aluminum (RAI), also mentioned here recently, is dipping.


MTW seems to be in a series of lower highs and lower lows - often the makings of a good short position.


MTH looks like it has fully retraced to the neckline of its head and shoulder pattern.


And the same can be said of MDC.


The DJ Real Estate (IYR) equity is breathtakingly high - - which just goes to show stocks sometimes have no trouble defying their resistance lines!

The Chunda from Down Unda

I've been doing this ("this" being running a technology development team, charting, trading) for a very long time, and I've been writing this blog for about a year and a half (in fact, my 400th post is just a few days away). In all that time, nothing like this has ever happened, but..........

On my voicemail this morning was a 5 minute message from someone who reads this blog. Although, like an anonymous poster, he didn't have the gonads to say who he was, he left a scathing, angry, insulting message telling me at length how much he hated this blog. He even had his (presumed) girlfriend check out my picture to affirm that, yes, I'm dorky looking.

Ooooookay.

Listen, my Southern Hemisphere chum: you don't need to read this. To take the time to read my blog at length (including, according to his voicemail, my archives), seek out my phone number, call me, and waste five minutes of your life leaving a flame is curious, to say the least. Here's my advice: stop reading it. What you are doing now is the equivalent in logic of stepping in the same big pile of dog poo every afternoon and complaining about how it's bad for your shoes. Walk around it! If you don't like my poo, go somewhere else! Thank you!

Anyway.

At least that gave me something to talk about, because these markets are a real snooze. On Monday the Dow was up 8.25 points. On Tuesday, 4.57 points. Today, 0.56 points. Zero point five six points, people. Good God, someone do something.

In fact, just about the only chart I've got for you today is Anderson (ANDE), which I first mentioned as a bullish suggestion back on December 27th. With today's breakout, it looks better than ever!


Sigh. I'd love to show more charts, but it would just be more of the same. Maybe something will rattle and roll tomorrow. Until then.........g'day!

Much Ado

This will be a relatively short post, simply because there's just not a heck of a lot going on the markets. Tons of stocks have basically "straight up" type patterns, and as great as that is for owners of those stocks, it doesn't make a lot of fodder for discussing trend changes or breakdowns.

I mentioned Carnival recently, and this one is behaving as expecting. Look at how "obedient" it was with respect to its trendline.


Capital One has been confounding me for a while, but this has pushed up high enough that it could represent both a press against resistance as well as a double top. Good short possibility.


Hansen (HANS) is fascinating to me since it's clinging to its Fib fan line like there's no tomorrow. I am not taking any position on this, but when it breaks away from this line, the move is going to be fast.


NVR is relatively thinly traded, but past history seems to suggest it obeys its Fib retracements really well, so this might be a good short-term bearish play.


Do a search for "BankRate" in this blog, and you'll see I've mentioned it as a bullish play on many past occasions. It took another big leg up today on handsome volume.

Charts - What Else?

The Dow was up a whopping .07% today, so it wasn't exactly a barnburner of a day on the market. But there's always a few charts to look at, right?

Anderson (ANDE), one of the few bullish charts I've been posting lately, continues to inch toward its potential breakout point (the horizontal line I've drawn).


I'm seeing a lot of big oil stocks shaping up as potential shorts; BHI looks particularly good.


EMC has been in a trading range for literally years. It seems to be at the upper end of it. This makes for a relatively low-risk bearish play.


I've been mentioning SHLD for quite a while, but I've got to hand it to the bulls, this has pushed above resistance. It's a really sharp looking cup with handle pattern. The big bursts of volume have definitely been dying down (see trendline on the volume chart), but that isn't particularly significant.


I was (very profitably) short the NZD/USD, and now I'm in a contratrend position - - I'm long for the moment, but definitely not for the long haul. Nothing ever goes straight down, and this fell so quickly and sharply I am looking for a very modest rise before re-entering the short.


I have no position on NutriSystem (NTRI), but I'm presenting this graph simply as a suggestion that it might be OK for a short-term bullish play. It may recover back to its neckline (where it fell to pieces in a matter of 3 days). This is a relatively high risk trade, however. Plenty of stocks that are "broken" like this really never recover.


I don't know what MSFT is doing (although my puts on it happily rose). Maybe Vista is getting a "so what?" from enough places that expectations are dying down. I, for one, have no reason to upgrade.


Google (GOOG) keeps heading lower. The problem with puts on this (which I own) is that there is so much volatility built into them that even after losing 30 points, the puts are only up a little.

Yep

Thus ends another week. Now c'mon, folks, throw me a bone here - - I mentioned CRR just a few days ago as a bullish play ("For a bullish play, CRR looks like it is beginning to turn northward after a long slide.") and it climbed 40% in just a few days. That isn't bad, and it shows this isn't just an all-bears blog.


The Gold and Silver index is looking like a potential short.


Although the Transports broke above their descending trendline, the shooting star candlestick today is a little encouraging. The markets are sky high and simply seem able to propel higher each week.


The $OEX (S&P 100) is matching a recent high. This means either a double top or, with more strength next week, more kudos for the bulls.


I like the Morgan Stanley Tech Index ($MSH) as a place to buy puts. It's pretty risky, and the puts aren't that thickly traded, but the potential for a big reward is there.


The Dow 30 lost a little ground today, and it remains clearly beneath its broken trendline.


Check out NVR versus the Fibonacci retracement. I'd say it's ready to turn tail.


China has been going absolutely hyperbolic in equities. GCH is a short play on this. But what's more fascinating to me is how well it has played against its own Fibonacci lines. I've highlighted the "bounce points."


Cabot Oil and Gas (COG) looks like another relatively low-risk place to buy puts.


I sold my Cummins (CMI) puts at a profit a while back. The stock has recovered since then, and it's so close to a double top at this point that I'm ready to leap in again.


Good weekend to one and all.........

Finally....

Wow, I have never been so late with a blog posting before! I am a day late but, thanks to my NZD/USD trade, far from a dollar short. I've been up since 3 a.m. catching up, and I am at long last going to do the post I wanted to do last night! (Technical Note: Blogger seems to be having major issues recently. I can't view comments, and I imagine none of you have been able to post. The lateness of this post is my fault, but the technical problems are not!)

If you saw the news last night, you should recognize what a scoop I provided with my bizarre BillyWitchDoctor.com post a week or so ago. That clip was from Aqua Teen Hunger Force and - wouldn't you know it? - they were the top story yesterday. No, I'm serious. There was a huge bomb scare in Boston, and it was due to a publicity stunt from our french dry/milk shake/meatball pals. Nice going, Frylock.



OK, back to charts. Today's entry is a little weird because I start pulling charts for it at 4 in the morning and was still doing so just 90 minutes before the close of the market. So this isn't a typical end of day commentary.

Kudos to those of you who took my NTRI suggestion seriously. This was a beautiful chart. It had a lot of good elements.....a major ascending trendline that had been broken.....a clear area of resistance.........a (sloppy) head and shoulders pattern. And it positively fell to pieces subsequent to my suggestion to check it out.


For those who didn't mind the risk, the rewards were handsome. Check out the action on this NTRI put - - up thousands of percent in just a few days!


Bulls in the stock market can take heart from the Transports. It looks like this has broken its clear bearish pattern. And, as I'm typing this, it looks like the market is headed to another solid close higher.


The S&P 500 is at the very, very top of its ascending channel. Any higher, and it's going to break above resistance.


Another cheer-up for the bulls is the MidCap 400. This is about as good a cup with handle pattern as you're ever going to see (my lame rendition of the pattern, in green, notwithstanding).


The Dow 30 seems to be headed for yet another closing higher today (the market's got another hour and a half open as I type this). But it's still below the ascending trendline is broke early last month.


For a bullish play, I like Genentech (DNA). The saucer shape and the volume both look positive.


CNX for a short idea.


Bank of America (BAC) is another good short idea. I closed my puts a couple of days ago at a profit, and it looks like it might be time to re-enter.


Sun Microsystems (SUNW), mentioned a month ago (or so) as a bullish play, is doing well. This is a gigantic saucer - just massive.


No one has commented on my FOREX suggestion (maybe there are only equity players here), but it's been doing amazing things. I've doubled my account balance in just a week based on this one currency.


I had never charted MWP before, but this is another good short idea.


McDonalds (MCD), shown here with Bollinger bands and the RSI, is a pretty safe bearish play.


And Google (GOOG), which announced earnings last night, is doing something really interesting - specifically, it's acting like a normal stock. In the past, whenever they had earnings, there were these massive gaps (highlighted here in green). There was no gap today - - although it's somewhat bearish for GOOG that yet another quarter of blow-out earnings is actually producing a down day (so far) for the stock.


My apologies to any of you wondering what took me so long to do the post. It's been nuts!

Remark on Comments: I think the geniuses at Google (Blogger) are busy counting their billions of dollars, because their site is sure a mess tonight. People can't even post comments. 90% of the reason I do this blog is to read people's comments, so please try again later. I want to hear what you have to say, and others do too!