Post Number D

Well, this is it.......my 500th post to this blog. I would have hoped for some kind of momentous occasion (like a corresponding 500 point drop on the Dow), but it was not to be. I never thought I'd be writing this blog for this long considering its humble beginnings as little more than a personal diary back in March 2005.

For anyone who has read my blog even a little bit, you know I'm a relatively incurable bearish sort. As such, the past couple of years have been rough sledding for me and other bears. Although there have been glimpses of hope (such as the early summer of 2006 or the brief plunge in February of this year), the market has, since October 2002, been owned and controlled by the bulls. Period.

Markets weren't always this way. Looking at over 80 years of the Dow in the 20th century, you can see a pretty even distribution of bullish years and bearish years (the latter shown in red).


But the past quarter century has been quite different. Offer any reason you like - globalization, mass credit, the benefits of computers - it hardly matters. The fact is that a down year in the stock market has become a rare exception.


And of course, the king of all bull markets, China, shows no sign of slowing down. The hiccup in February is becoming a speck in the history of this market. Except for a small ETF position now and then in some related Asian market, I stay far, far away from China (either bullish or bearish). It's a bubble that no one knows where or when will burst. A true bear market could be years off.


Closer to home, the Dow inched lower today, and a potential double top remains in place. Of course, one strong day could pierce that possibility instantly.


Most U.S. equity markets have a strong resemblance in that, over the past couple of months, volatility has increased (judging from the technical indicators), even as prices have plateaued into relative quiet. Here's the S&P 500......


And a very similar reading from the Amex Major Market Index.......


Today was a pretty hum-drum, do-nothing day, but there were pockets of interesting stuff. ALB, a short of mine, cut beneath its neckline nicely.


BTJ, another short, rose some. But I'm still feeling good about this chart.


Another short, Constellation Group (CEG), eased lower, and the reversal in trend seems convincing.


Housing stocks seem to be rather stuck, although they pushed down somewhat today. ESS is one of them, shown below. Many housing stocks bear a resemblance of this head and shoulders (ish) pattern, but the firmness seems peculiar.


I don't think I've mentioned Entergy (ETR) in a while. I entered a new short position on this today.


JC Penney (JCP), on which I own puts, also eased beneath its neckline (finally!) today.


I toyed with the idea of making my 500th post my farewell to this blog, but I figured that would be a bit too Nixonian. Plus, I do like writing this blog, for the most part. It's an honor.

The main reason I keep writing it is because thousands of people show up every day (for whatever reason) to read what I've got to say. And we've got somewhat of a culture built up around this place. So I might as well keep at it. And, believe me, I'm grateful for your interest and readership.

And, after all, every dog has his day. Stay tuned.

Indecision

For those of you who didn't read this morning's post, please check out The Chart Project, which is a little something I've been putting together. I'd love it for some of the readers here to contribute.

The market is in a pretty serious state of indecision. It could be just gathering its breath before it makes an assault on Dow 14,000. Looking at the Dow 30 over the past few months, however, it seems the technical indicators point to a reduction in prices as opposed to a fresh surge.


The Major Market Index ($XMI), although shaped differently, seems to present a similar argument. Especially if the old saw "Sell in May and Go Away" holds true.


The head and shoulders pattern, a favorite of mine, showtimes holds together and sometimes doesn't. Akamai (AKAM), mentioned here often recently, seems to be moving in accordance to its pattern.


Real estate stocks, on the other hand, seem to have violated their recent head and shoulders pattern across the board. Essex (ESS), shown below, is a good example - as is the much broader IYR. This doesn't necessarily mean the bearish pattern is moot. But it definitely diminishes its credibility, since prices have soared above the neckline.


Symbol ALB seems to be forming a nice trend change as well. I would say this is another head and shoulders pattern as well. They seem to be common these days.

Thanks, Alan

The market surged again this morning. The S&P 500 was at a new lifetime high. As was the Russell 2000. As was the Dow 30. It looked like Dow 14,000 was just around the corner.

Then Alan Greenspan - bless him - threw some cold water on the excitement by speculating the Chinese market was overheated and headed for a fall. That's all it took to render the breakout (shown in green) moot (shown in pink).


Now, the Old Tim would have been dancing around shouting about how it's the end of the world. But the New Improved Tim With Integrated Timing (figure the acronym out for yourself), severely humbled over the past year, will do nothing of the sort. Indeed, if you think back to Greenspan's most famous declaration ever - - "irrational exuberance" - - it might be instructive. He said it on December 5, 1996, and you can see the brief aftermath here:


But if you take a longer view, you will note that the irrational exuberance had barely even started. The market went up hundreds of percent more, as measured by the NASDAQ.


Not to say that I'm unhappy with today's small tumble. A look at the major indexes shows they are very tired. Here's the S&P 500:


And here is the broader Major Market Index ($XMI):


There's an interesting article by Herb Greenberg about the fact that brokerage margin debt is at a never-seen-before high. Obviously people are willing to go into debt on a widespread basis to buy into the recent mania. If you think the shorts are only going to get squeezed worse, you might want to check out this blog which focuses on opportunities to go long on stocks that may be squeezed up.

I am still short Akamai (AKAM), and its head and shoulders pattern (an obvious favorite of mine) is nicely intact.


AutoZone (AZO) is finally getting serious about falling.


Carnival (CCL), which had some recent strength, is again at a relatively low-risk zone for shorting.


Housing stocks, strong yesterday, are a safer short now. Here is Essex (ESS):


Infosys (INFY) is inching ever-so-slowly toward its neckline. If and when the neckline is broken, a substantial fall would seem in order.


Martin Marietta (MLM) may have double-topped here, and it is far above its supporting trendline.


Morgan Stanley (MS) is sporting a nice shooting star today. Granted, many recent shooting stars have been rendered moot by the market's strength. Still........


And Whirlpool (WHR) is likewise far enough above its supporting trendline to present an attractive short (or put-buying) possibility.


There's a ton of economic information coming out tomorrow morning. It should make for an interesting session.

Snoozer

I see several dozen people have signed up for MyBlogLog. Cool. Basically what it lets you do is sign up with your name and a photo, and you can check out what your fellow readers are also reading. It's a pretty cool way to amble around the community of readers we have on this blog and find interesting new stuff.

Today was a rather yawner day. The Industrials crossed above the 13,500 market, and then slumped in the last part of the day to close slightly down. The Dow is really running on fumes at this point, given its rapid ascent.


I keep an eye on the currency markets too. I've mentioned the NZD/USD here many times before. As you can see, there is a very strong correlation recently between the NZD/USD and the U.S. Markets (I've used the S&P 500 here).


The $XMI is also a good illustration of how the market may be in a position to "roll over" after this explosive upswing.


I'm hanging onto my BSC puts. They are doing OK - nothing spectacular yet.


Energy stock DRQ, mentioned here bullishly before, looks better than ever. I'd put a stop of $44.11 on this.


A reader mentioned ESS as a good short idea today. I agree! (A similar conclusion could be had with VON).


My InfoSys (INFY) short is also doing pretty well, although it needs to break that neckline to get juicy.


It might be a good second chance for those of you wanting to be short JC Penney (JCP) to get in at a better price now.


PSB - like many real estate stocks today - fell pretty hard, and it is right on the cusp of violating its neckline. Lovely!


Another bullish energy play - SWN - looks terrific.


Go sign up for MyBlogLog if you haven't already! :-)

'Til Tuesday

It's really simple.

Tomorrow morning, the CPI will be released. The market will react. If it reacts poorly (which means down, which is a good thing), it's party time. If it finds the report vigorous and exciting for some reason, that's a bad thing for us. Because, simply stated, today made a lot of sense to me, virtually all my positions went up, and all my charts are positioned for juicy profits tomorrow. But a perverse reaction to the CPI could muck that all up in no time.

I said last week that Massey Energy (MEE) was looking like a good short, given its head and shoulders pattern. One person wrote in that evening's comments section.....

I'd stay away from shorting MEE... One of these Merger Monday's it's name is going to be on the "acquired list" and that's going to suck for anyone short it. Crappy management, but great reserves, and the coal bidness ain't going anywhere soon....

Well, the stock took a big fall today, and based on this pattern, there could be plenty more room to fall.


Indeed, some of the put options on this went up literally thousands of percent. Not bad!


On a more bullish note, another stock I've been mentioning as a beautiful buy is ONT, and it continues to do terrific. Check out the strength of that volume!



Because the market is so complacent right now, many puts are being sold on the cheap. Check out this chain from earlier today for MMM. Just look at the October put. For 63 cents (if you strip out the intrinsic value)......63 cents per share!......you get the right to sell the stock at a fixed price of $95 any time between now and October. Even more interesting is the fact that time premium is just about zilch.....July is the same as June....is the same as October! Incredible.



The Major Market Index ($XMI) does a nice job of showing where this market stands. If - - and I say if - - the market even freaks out a little at the morning's CPI, tomorrow is going to be a fantastic today. Today was really good, only because I was running around buying puts when the Dow was up 50 and everything else was basically stalled. I knew it wouldn't last.


I've got to blast off to a meeting, so I'm just going to throw you raw symbols now, all of which I have either puts on or I am already short. Here we go.....AKAM:


BEN:


CROX (can you say fad?!!?!):


CRR:


DE:


EWM:


INFY:


MMM:


RIMM:


WHR: