Tuesday, March 29, 2005

The market gets shaky & I have a record day

This is my first entry, but it's a bit like walking into a play at the end of the first act - the positions in play were established a while ago. But let's begin........

Today was, in dollar terms, the most successful day so far in my trading career. It's not that the market did anything particularly remarkable. The Dow fell about 80 points, which for a bear like me is a fine day, but it's nothing extraordinary. But today (and, to a lesser extent, yesterday) represented very healthy gains. Which makes sense, considering that yesterday was the best day of my trading career, and the Dow was up yesterday.

I currently have PUTS in these stocks:

COF
CTSH
MGG
NSC
PHS
SHFL

And SHORT positions on these:

AAPL
CBE
COF
CTSH
CZR
GEF
HANS
HET
IIVI
MGG
MVL
PHS
SHFL
VMC

For the moment, I've got a CALL on NSC and a LONG position on ATI and NSC, but it's not because I think these are great long-term buys. I simply think that, very short term, they are oversold.

I posted charts on a few of these stocks earlier, which you can see here.

I closed out a bunch of positions today at great profits, but I left a lot of money on the table. For instance, I sold my puts on NSC for a terrific profit, but the position moved up another $20,000. There are a few other examples like that. I don't want to sound overly greedy, but I'm angry with myself for closing out positions simply to take profits, instead of for good, technical reasons.

I'll also mention that I sold my long position in RTK yesterday, and in spite of the market's fall today, RTK went up smartly. Once again, I sold it for no good technical reason, but simply to eliminate my one long position - hardly a good reason for a trade.

If the market stays soft, I'm optimistic about the long term prospects for every one of these positions. The real question is going to be if I'm going to find enough time to do regular posts!

7 comments:

mndrija said...

Happy birthday :)

bluetrader said...

That was a great post Tim. I see this blog turning into a huge deal someday. Give it 4 or 5 years...You'll see. Just stay focused. Build it and they will come. Hell, they'll probably be wanting to throw a SOH convention in Vegas one day. Dream big Tim!

I don't know about the market being that soft right now though. We will probably reach all time highs within the next couple of years but, I think that will be the top for quite sometime. I'm thinking somewhere around DOW 14k and a good timing signal would be if Maria Bartiromo begins jumping around on the NYSE floor. However, once that occurs there will be the mother of all crashes just around the corner.

Also, if you have any real estate laying around I would suggest that you unload it NOW. It's just a matter of time before homeowners begin walking away from mortgages they can't afford. Also, MBS and credit markets are primed for a collapse. I know not alot of folks have heard about MBS but, they are out there and they are absolutely toxic. That collapse will probably take down some of our biggest I-banks. I hear that Bear Stearns and Lehman Bros. are knee deep in it so, they would probably be pretty good shorts if/when all of this begins to manifest.

I hope I'm wrong but, I think it's going to get so bad the Feds will have to step in and take ownership of some of the banks. Being that alot of our car makers have huge finance arms, you will most likely see the feds involve themselves with them too. As always, in the end, the taxpayers will foot the bill.

After all of that there will be a relentless, bone crushing rally that will stupify everyone. I really have no idea what will happen after that. Five years is about as far ahead as I care to see. Anyway, this is a really good blog and I hope it ends up being a source of joy for you and your visitors.

Ray said...

Follow this advice. Get very short in 2008 and then very long in 2009. You will make a fortune!

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