Thursday, May 17, 2007

Snoozer

I see several dozen people have signed up for MyBlogLog. Cool. Basically what it lets you do is sign up with your name and a photo, and you can check out what your fellow readers are also reading. It's a pretty cool way to amble around the community of readers we have on this blog and find interesting new stuff.

Today was a rather yawner day. The Industrials crossed above the 13,500 market, and then slumped in the last part of the day to close slightly down. The Dow is really running on fumes at this point, given its rapid ascent.


I keep an eye on the currency markets too. I've mentioned the NZD/USD here many times before. As you can see, there is a very strong correlation recently between the NZD/USD and the U.S. Markets (I've used the S&P 500 here).


The $XMI is also a good illustration of how the market may be in a position to "roll over" after this explosive upswing.


I'm hanging onto my BSC puts. They are doing OK - nothing spectacular yet.


Energy stock DRQ, mentioned here bullishly before, looks better than ever. I'd put a stop of $44.11 on this.


A reader mentioned ESS as a good short idea today. I agree! (A similar conclusion could be had with VON).


My InfoSys (INFY) short is also doing pretty well, although it needs to break that neckline to get juicy.


It might be a good second chance for those of you wanting to be short JC Penney (JCP) to get in at a better price now.


PSB - like many real estate stocks today - fell pretty hard, and it is right on the cusp of violating its neckline. Lovely!


Another bullish energy play - SWN - looks terrific.


Go sign up for MyBlogLog if you haven't already! :-)

29 comments:

Tim Knight said...

Wow, three hours and not a single comment. Makes me consider whether anonymous posters should be allowed back......

Tim Knight said...

chirp chirp chirp

Ohhhhhhhhkay. I clicked on anonymous allowed, and still nobody. Weird.

4profit said...

Please no anonymous idiots - please Tim. No posts = exhausted / bored traders. Hopefully the close is foreshadowing tomorrows drop. NDX has been looking weaker than the Dow. If the Dow would give up we would have a nice fall! Looks promising at this point.

Momo Fader said...

Cramer stuck a fork in the solars today. Plenty of chatter on FSLR board on Yahoo. Cramer has in general been a real thorn in my side, recommending stocks that I'm short. However, he made it all up to me this time, dissing a stock that I'm short. FSLR to 35 w/in 12 months.

AJ said...

Hi Tim,
Wouldn't waiting for JCP to hit the resistance line at around 82 be a better entry point for a PUT? I'ts moved up on pretty high volume today, it could have a couple of follow-through days higher..
AJ.

Geoff said...

Tim,

You mentioned the Shanghai index in your post on Tuesday - is there an ETF or some kind of fund that tracks the Chinese economy, or the Shanghai in particular?

Thanks for the blog and the charts.

Dennis said...

It looks to me like distribution under the strong DOW advance. Witness the weakness in RUT and SOX. So the liquity (whether coming from China or private equity buyout) is supporting the big boys. That means the smaller companies are ripe for a selloff.

Digithead said...

Dear Tim,
I have been pondering the technicals of Amazon for some 2.5 weeks now. I note that it hit a DeMark 13 on a TD Combo back on Sep 26th, stochs, RSI's, Bollingers, oscillators all at historic highs. I note that the stock is up 50% in a month on the mother of all short squeezes. I note a forward P/E of 60*. However, I also note: Rumours of interest by private equity groups and a short interest level which is daunting. Si I ask you: What does it mean when you have such a perfect three week long pennant? Does one set a tight stop just above 64? Is AMZN exhausted yet, or just pausing to consolidate before its next squeeze? With a short interest this large is it stupid to even consider a short in here?

nonsumdignus said...

Tim,

Your main man Fisher is at it again - there's a world boom on the horizon, and we ain't seen nothing yet, friends!

http://www.forbes.com/free_forbes/2007/0507/242.html

My favorite quote from him, in regards to all the signs pointing to a recession:

"These are small, petty, garden-variety suicidal excuses to miss the reality that this is a uniquely spectacular time."

Uh, yeah, right. It's always different this time.

wincity said...

Not sure if DRQ is better than ever. It missed earnings recently. Right now it appeared to be dragged up by the sector. When the sector turns around, I wouldn't be surprised if DRQ breaks below your purple line.

b.healed said...

i am about to show some TA ignorance but I keep hearing about "short squeezes"....what is a short squeeze? thanx

Prometheus said...

Short squeezes happens when the price of a stock starts to rise and shorts start to cover their positions by buying shares to cover their position which then can accelerate the rise in stock price. Typically, stocks that have a large about of shares shorted are more likely to experience short squeezes.

Prometheus said...

I'm looking for a fall in PKI and Dell. Hopefully options day tomorrow will start mixing things up and we can get another down day. 10 points down is better than 10 points up.

Anonymous said...

You bears sound like broken records for the last 5 months. You hear the same comments from your mouth each night. It goes like this, "oh i can't wait till this market falls, i loaded up on puts, this is the start of a big down fall, this is way overdone, too frothy". haha, i've heard it all!! each time you bears are proven wrong!!! you must be broke by now! how those puts feel - can you say time decay? you bear idiots act like your soo damn smart, and yet somehow you never lose a dime too hahha - that's your ego. Nobody wants to admit they are wrong. I'm glad to have you in the market though - i need some dumb money to take the other side. I'll be short when the time is right...i don't fight the tape!

Anonymous said...

giggity giggity!!

lets see how long the anonymous posts will be allowed this time.

These Google geniuses could have just added another required field to type in a nickname instead of signing up for a blogger account.

Quagmire

Anonymous said...

JCP..short ?? ha ha..it will touch 100 in a year..based on valuation

Gary said...

Nonsumdignus,
Just so happens I posted an article on recessions on my blog today.

nonsumdignus said...

Thanks Gary! Nice insightful blog you have there. I'll add it to my favs-I'd like to follow in your footsteps and retire by 47 too. ;-)

SimpleTrade said...

I have QID, DXD, TWM, QQQQ puts and DIA puts. Almost all in. But too early. Hope the market will treat me well with correction on the way..........

Momo Fader said...

Geoff, the Shanghai A shares are tightly restricted by Chinese Govt. There is very little access to them for foreigners.

If you want to just track the Shanghai Stock Exchange, you can use the ticker ^SSEC in yahoo. If you want to trade the SSEC, you might look at closed end fund CAF, but that trades at a mighty discount to NAV.

Gary said...

simpletrade,
The smart money is still buying this market. Until they start selling it's going to be very dangerous to be short. I would suggest you go thru the archives on my blog. The signs of a top are just not showing yet.

Mike said...

FSLR -- nice little H&S pattern after a big run up.

SimpleTrade said...

Gary, you maybe right. Now the top is not known until it starts the decline.
I think China's decision on rates, currency will at least cause a correction in Chinese market short term, a minor crash (5%) on Monday. That will impact US as well. DIA is way overbought, I expect a similar but smaller drop in US market next week. But what do I know, I've been wrong for so long.........
And, I think now to short the market is safer than to long to get the last profit from a tired market....

Tim Knight said...

Geoff,

There's a security symbol FXI which is the iShares for the Xinhua 25. That's not a bad choice. There are options on it, albeit with relatively large bid/ask spreads.

beanie11111 said...

Bear charts don't work in bull markets.

Humongous rally comin your way this year.

1.5 months left for bears.

Gary said...

Simpletrade,
I would have to disagree since the average length of uplegs so far in this bull is 27 weeks and we are only in week 9 I would say we may have a ways to go yet. A little sideways action after a strong initial run is to be expected. That's exactly what looks like is going on with the Nasdaq. Usually after a sideways consolidation if the market breaks out again to the upside you can expect another move of similar size. I won't be betting my financial security on "the market looks tired".

Yuri said...

Seems my only consolation this week is that the weekly chart for the NASDAQ is still lookin' good. What is the opposite of catching a falling knife? Must be what we have - something to the effect of being impaled by a bull's horn.

beanie11111 said...

when tim starts putting up all bull charts, the real correction will come.

Gary said...

The real correction will come when the big money starts selling. They're still buying at the moment.