Friday, April 20, 2007

Topless

What more can I say? The market is on turbocharged boosters right now. Bad news doesn't stop it. And Lord knows that good news isn't going to stop it. Crossing the fabled 13,000 mark next week seems to be virtually a foregone conclusion.

Looking at the SPY (S&P 500 ETF) below, you can see the entire bear market of 2000-2002 has been rendered moot, and we are way up to lifetime highs. And this is nothing compared to the likes of the MDY.


I think I've personally had just about enough of the "top calling" business. As you may have noticed, I'm just taking it one day at a time. Let me illustrate how hazardous top calling can be.

Take a look at the graph below. Let's put ourselves in a bearish mindset and, observing the rapid, relentless explosion higher of equity prices, assume that the tide is going to turn. Or at least things are going to rest for a while.


Look what happened next. It slowed down, but it didn't stop going up. Buying kept feeding on itself.


Now the market accelerates yet again. The bears have been wiped out. All the bulls are zillionaires. And bets start taking place as to when the NASDAQ when overtake the Dow in terms of point value (Remember that?) So the bears completely throw in the towel.


After a few months of a soft market, the bulls could just as easily look at the graph below and figure that the market's done taking a breather, and it's time to push higher again. It's very easy to imagine the sentiment. After all, it looks like the "shake out" is through, observing this graph.


And we all know what happened next. And I've marked each of these points on the chart below. The bears were dead wrong all the way up. And the bulls were dead wrong on the way down. And yet we can see (if you try to be objective) why the bulls or bears were completely rational in their conjecture at the time of these graphs.


So is it hopeless? After the past two months, I'm starting to think so. It's very demoralizing to be analytical, rational, and careful, and yet be so wrong. And it doesn't exactly help that my free contribution of thoughts yields mud-slinging yuk yuks from the bulls who frequent this board.

One item that actually turned out as predicted was Capital One (COF). In spite of today's massive market rise, it was quite weak.


A few stocks had great earnings, opened way higher, and yet sported a pretty large bearish engulfing pattern. McDonald's (MCD) is - excuse the pun - a whopper.


I'm glad this week is over. All this bullishness is stomach-churning. Maybe we're just at point "A" of the graph shown at the top of this post. But so many stocks have gone stratospheric, it continues to be hard to believe.

92 comments:

Anonymous said...

Tim with all the short positions you are holding you must have taken a beating the last week.

Mine has been a slow steady blood-loss, as I get stopped and short again.

beginning to think that is not a market for human traders but for computor traders and hedgies who arbitrage.

been an awful last few weeks. I am a subdued bear wondering how much worse it can get.

z-stock said...

Well Tim,
If you say we’ve reached a market top....I will pretty much agree with you...I’ll be very much surprised...if INDU...reaches 13013.51.....
zee....

Anonymous said...

Tim, imo the reason you're constantly confounded by this market rise is you're using longer term charts with a short term perspective. A bull market run like this will only offer little shakeouts, barely disrupting the longer term trend. You'll be right eventually in finding the mother of all tops, but wrong over and over 'til then. That's the consequence of offering daily analysis. Jeff

onewaystox@gmail.com said...

once again, Tim, I will ask you to show us the djia-or-sandp-or-nasdaq.comp, with FIB. EXTENSIONS!!!!!!!!!

what's the first FIB.EXTEN. even beyond the old djia high of 11,750?

Why are you afraid to show FIB.EXTENSIONS>?!?!?!?!

JakeGint said...

Zee-- I'm with you... I think we get at least a pullback next week, maybe even Monday... I closed my RUT calls today... it was hard, but better safe than sorry.

JakeGint said...

No secret word, but secret say so... I get it.

May want to announce it one more time Tim so that newbs know not to try to repost ... which I almost did... (so used to it after the secret word days! lol).

wshhmm德州牌手 said...

I think this is called last climax run, which might last for more days. Today dow is up 150 pts, and might next week, it will be 13500 or more.

I cut all of my short with ok loss, but I keep faith to short.

Tim Knight said...

OneWayStox,

I'm not "afraid" to show Fib extensions. They're just typically so far above or below the current market as to not be helpful.

I'm not even sure where you want me to put the endpoints. I did the bottom of the 73/74 bear market up to the peak in '00, and the 161.8% extension reads 18,670. So there you have it.

Same reason I don't really get into Fib time series extensions. The next "big event" according to mind is in the year 2043. Again, not very helpful.

TOMTHETRADER said...

Tim ... You put out a challenge the other day and I met it and I think your readers should see
EMC 14.15 - 15.40

GSK 55.91 - 59.50

INTC 20.10 - 22.20

IMCL 39.75 - 42.03

NDAQ 29.48 - 32.30

NSM 24.34 - 26.04

This is in 4 sessions !!!!! That has to be something , since you called out the challenge ...should be addressed by you !!! You can come to my site anytime and I hope you don't delete me because I am not advertising and I just want you to answer the call out ???

TTT

z-stock said...

ttt....
just tell us what to buy....I’ll buy it....whatever your next stock pick is ...tell me...I’ll buy it....and if I make $75 bucks...well...that’s $75...bucks closer..for... me to...join your site....
zee...
posting history....history not helping...... for instance...I started to buy INTC at $20....and had you posted here...buy INTC....I’d be 200 dollars richer......I know you're good....but can you hand out some freebies...once in a while...

onewaystox said...

so, FIB.EXTENSIONS are...

"...They're just typically so far above or below the current market as to not be helpful..."

I love this site, but that's the biggest bunch of crap you've ever written. I mean, you show the retracements all ALL the time.

show the extension using the djia 11,750 -- 7200 trading range, & show the first tiny 23.6% extension of the 4550 point move

WE'RE ALREADY ABOVE THERE!!

IT COMES OUT TO 12,812!! (someone check my math)

If you want to use the true 38.2%, then it only comes out to DJIA 13,488!!

EatTheBears said...

What a Feast!

I am stuffed.

I've never eaten so much Bear meat.

These gotta be the stupidest animals around - they keep getting caught in the same beartraps over and over - never learn.

Belch... Oh pardon me...

I gotta go - I got another one on the BBQ right now..

EatTheBears

Anonymous said...

BEARS , LOOK AT YOURSELF IN THE MIRROR SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND AND ASK YOURSELF..."HOW THE HELL DID I MISS A 2250 PT RALLY (10700 TO 12950) THAT TOOK PLACE IN ONLY 9 MONTHS ??..I MEAN I COULD HAVE GONE LONG AT 11700 AND I'D LOOK AT LEAST FAIRLY SMART.HOW DID I NOT SEE ANY OF THIS COMING ? "

13000 IS A NEW BEGINNING , NOT A FINAL BLOW-OFF TOP !!

Commen Sense said...

Emotions are running high...

People are highly leveraged...

A lot of wheeling and dealing is occuring...

Anything can happen now...

A good trader always understands this -- what the COT says, what the charts say or what the 'stars' say - always takes second place to this realization: 'anything can happen.'

Anonymous said...

Does anyone know of a good stock screener out there? I'm looking for something that will screen for Chaikin Money Flow vs. Price Rise or Bollinger Band rate of change.

Anyone know of anything GOOD?

Thanks,

-TonyB

Edwardo said...

Just what one wants to hear from the bulls and the bears, absolute despair from the bears and jubilant, nay, euphoric taunting from the bulls. The Blowoff is now in progress.

One would do well to look at indicators like Eliades New 10 Trin indicator to see that the bull on a very shaky foundation. This isn't the beginning of anything except the beginning of the end. Yes, sir we are deep into distribution time right now. Are you a bagholder?

Anonymous said...

What is eliades trin ? I have heard of it somewhere ?

TOMTHETRADER said...

Thanks Tim ,

I really do respect you and your profession. Not many have the guts to put up with what you do and still keep hanging in there. I honestly appreciate you and your site and hope that our views will meet someday !!! People will say I am B.S. but I have been honest and concise and have learned from you and your book and jsut have the opposite views ...mostly because I look at things threw what the Governments and world powers want ... not on the charts ...I agree with the charts the thing that is wrong is that it is a function of Too Much money and we will have a severe correction probably even a bear market after the 08 olympics ...Thank you again for your professionalism.

TTT

Anonymous said...

It continues to be hard to believe...
----

Seeing is believing :). 13300-13500 target number 1.

Anonymous said...

Tim, you should keep all your short positions, while at the same time call an up day, _every day_. If you're wrong most days your portfolio will be doing great and you can simply not read comments (or take no note of the insulting ones at least :P), if you're right most days your portfolio will die but everyone will be keeping your spirits up in comments and you can take comfort there :)
win-win situation!
By the way, I was short (and still am) before I started reading your blog, and I really hope we go higher from here because the pending fall will be that much tastier, so I'm routing for the bulls for now. Being short now just feels so much better knowing that whatever you win/lose you're not on the retarted ignorant bull (both senses of the word) side doesn't it?

Tim Knight said...

"I love this site, but that's the biggest bunch of crap you've ever written. I mean, you show the retracements all ALL the time."

OneWayStox, I'm all for extensions - - but it's just hard for me to read your mind as to where YOU would draw this stuff. It would be like throwing me a symbol and saying "draw the trendline." The question is: WHAT trendline?

In any case, I think a person wanting something from a chart is best served when they draw on the chart personally. Sorry to frustrate you.

Dennis said...

All right, I am packing it in. This market is simply too strong to short because there's too much cash on the sideline. Can't fight it.

sammy said...

Tim, Market Vane’s Bullish Consensus, which is at its second highest extreme on record. The 73% bulls is only surpassed by a greater extreme in the weeks leading into the August 1997 high. The market should top out between 12990 and 13030 sometime early next week, then drop 500 - 600 points in the next 3-4 weeks and zig zag along until october. Don't let the idiots get you down, there are not to many of us left. Do what i'm going to do this weekend, forget the last week and get drunk. Sammy.

Tim Knight said...

Thanks, Sammy. Here's the link for those interested:

http://www.investmenttools.com/equities/weekly/market_vane_bullish__.htm

TradeitLikeItIs said...

This market will continue to behave as it has as long as this bearishness is in place::

Short interest on the NYSE recently surged to 4.6% - to 11 billion shares - another all-time high -and despite the DJIA rising.

NYSE short interest was recently 14.6% and just had the largest percentage increase ever.

-

This level of short interest makes for very poor investing and for very poor shorting opportunities.

It's bad for investing because it creates volatility - it also causes prices to move higher than they should because the shorters 'must' buy back chasing prices higher - after they cover it drops and backfills.

It is bad for bears obviously because it is a crowded trade.

This is a trading market.
I see very few funds making money - the Money Centre banks are - because they are trading - they coordinate the big moves and the short squeezes such as this week.

Trumpets were blaring the last few days - if they are blaring again next week - sell.

TradeItlikeItiS

Leisa said...

Toshi

In my million dollar fantasy portfolio, I have managed a gain of $248K. I'm in the top 3%. Now, in my home-girl portfolio, I'm..well let's not go there.

There's some major constipation happening in the credit markets. The credit markets will either continue to breath life into this market or will punch it in the stomach.

If not, then it is market on the run.

Anonymous said...

Anon 4:21 ,

I just have to say what you wrote in for your "comment" was right near the top of the list of insane things I've read in a good while.

It would be like a guy saying I love catching my wife in bed with other men so she can appreciate me even more when we f*ck again.

Flatwallet said...

Tim,

This market is setting up for a nice blow off top. However, I have no idea if it will happen tomorrow or 6 months from now. Looking at the SPY, I don't see why it will not head to 155 and maybe even slightly over it. The day it does this, the last of the bulls will join in and maybe even many of the bears may just throw in the towel. Until then, why not just enjoy the ride up the roller coaster. Just be careful of the steep drop.

The markets will stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. I would be shocked if we don't break the highs this year. But I wouldn't bet on it to happen tomorrow. Also, Tim I do agree with your bearish stance from a rational stand point. We are at the tail end of a bull/up market and a recessionary period is fairly near. The war has had a huge toll on our economy and so have gas prices, sub-prime, home prices etc... As for the million dollar question, when will this darn thing fall? I just don't have enough money to make the right bet. So for now I stay in cash and just daytrade.

BTW, love the analysis but maybe not the timing. It nice to hear a non CNBC type voice mixed in with all the irrationality.

LP

Anonymous said...

Hi Tim,

Don't let the rude remarks bother you... it is the "internet" after all.

You do also have the option of deleting the inappropriate postings, which no one of sane mind enjoys reading anyways.

tony said...

While I am sympathetic with you. I think you should be delighted very soon.

SPY & DJIA gapped up three time, including today, in April. This seems to be an exhaustion gap. Today's action is probably exaggerated by market-marker's share buying since so many calls are pushed in the money and they have to deliver over the weekend. Will be interesting next week.

Babak said...

Tim,
I know it must be tough, but try and ignore the petty comments from the 'bulls'. I may not agree with a lot of your analysis but stooping to insults and jabs is just childish.

May I make a suggestion? why not start the day looking at charts, market internals and other technical indicators with a clean, neutral mind?

Allow the charts and other info to tell you the way to trade, instead of seeing H/S formations everywhere and tops all over the place.

You may be vindicated at some point because the market can't go up forever! But what is the difference between the permabulls like Kudlow, who always see the world as rosy and permabears who always see it as bleak?

Both are trying to force the data to conform to their own beliefs, rather than riding the waves of the market like a trader.

Have a great weekend :-)

Anonymous said...

Ther is nothing wrong with getting some good put/short trades in once in a while . But. YOU HAVE TO GET THE TIMING PRETTY MUCH EXACT OR YOU WILL LOOK LIKE A FOOL. For example,you can't be calling SHORT-SHORT- SHORT at 12000, have the market continue on up to say 14000,then have the market correct back to 12500,and then say...SEE.I TOLD YOU STUPID BULLS THIS WAS GONNA HAPPEN.That'll never work. The bulls don't have that problem because time and history are on their side, the market is + 12950...not -12950.Forget this "you just watch...eventually this rally's gonna correct". Thats meaningless. Worthless.So go ahead,call a top and either get it pretty much right (on the timing), or expect to get ridiculed for predicting (the end of the world).
Find a street corner for that .There is too many regulations attatched to this thing now to get another '29 or probably even another '87 again.Tops are going to be harder than ever to call from now on.Better to think 'Jack be nimble-Jack be quick' (or slowly go to the poorhouse ).

Tim Knight said...

Well, Anon., that's why I'm kind of hanging up the ol' "Here's the top!" hat. It's a no-win situation.

tradeitlikeitis said...

The next intermediate term market peak will arrive when the WADs complete their takeovers and Blackstone and some other private equity firms IPO and their stocks double on the same day.

This has been preordained by agreements that the FR will help out HB to prevent another 500 point down on the DOW - they need to keep the stock market afloat
because the housing market continues to collapse.

FR = filthy rich
WADs - wheelers and dealers
HB = helicopter ben

TradeItLikeItIs

bt said...

A big difference between the run in the late 90s to the run now is the dollar index was actually going up back then but has been decreasing the last five years. When the dollar buys much less is it really all that great? Thank you Fed for creating the illusion of prosperity.

Northvan said...

Judging from the market vane, it looks like the big market hits in 1987 and 2000 took place when sentiment was rather middle of the road. Is that right???

I thought there would have been more of the "irrational exuberance" that see now.

http://www.investmenttools.com/equities/weekly/market_vane_bullish__.htm

Anonymous said...

How can so many bulls out there actually think the bears are out in full force. EVERY SINGLE SHOW TONIGHT ON CNBC HAD GUESTS ON THAT WERE MORE BULLISH THAN THE NEXT. It was a disgrace. Cramer was bullish in the beginning of his show saying this is a bull market and that there is more to come. I dont understand how high this index can go before reality sets in. Cramer mentioned that he sees the DOW up 17% this year, which I believe is around 14400-14600 area. Now does every bull here actually think this market is going to go straight up into the end of 2007 without a significant pull back. The answer is no, there will be a pullback. Just when is anyones guess.


I have searched for answers on why these markets have rallied the way they have rallied and a few reasons are:

Private equity

LIQUIDITY IS EVERYYYYWHEREEEE

derivative markets

Fed injecting money into the market

YEN CARRY TRADE.


Seems as the market goes higher and higher everything just gets better and better. Monday morning we will see 13,000. After that who knows.

Anonymous said...

BY THE WAY, EVEN THOUGH Im completely bearish I do think the s&p 500 sees new highs after it sees at least a 2% pullback. I think a pullback to 1450 then just a straight run to 1550+++

Anonymous said...

So in other words 9:26 ,in the coming weeks/months you are EXTREMELY completely bullish.

Anonymous said...

if we are a bear market, we need SP quick reaching 1562, Nasdaq 2731, Dow 13650.

The reason is simple, we need a massive crazy.

Anonymous said...

i see this as the beginning to the raging big big 21st century bull market where dow will power past 100000 sometime before 2015. Good job calling the bottom and time to ride friends. The elevators are going up up up and away boys.

Anonymous said...

Hang in there. There are people who really appreciate your feedback. The market is acting very wierd right now with all this leverage sloshing around. It's hard to fathom how it's all hanging together, but like you, I've got to believe that it's going to come home to roost eventually. I'm not a permabear, but I'm definitely a bear right now. I appreciate your analysis...keep up the good work and don't get too down. This looks like we just went through wave 3 of an extended wave 5 to the top. 13.2 or so should top it out and we'll start down the other side gradually. Could take a year to get to wave 3 down though (given an election). Cross your fingers.

Anonymous said...

I'm surprised leis has a computer to type on after being so wrong about the market. You have been short since the Feb correction and deserve to lose everything. You may book smart but definately not wall street material girl.

heha

Anonymous said...

Tim,

In my time I've had a few MCD double cheeseburgers. Have you been to a fast food place lately? My boys love the playland... and fries, but I've noticed that around here they are not doing the business they used to. The last weekend I took the boys to get some fries and nuggets, they had the playland to themselves most of the time.

That unmistakable reversal candle needs confirmation, but I'd bet it's for real! It's right on time, now ain't it?

Can't fool us Tim. We know you've been long since mid-March and cashed in all your calls today.

fastwater

b.healed said...

i can see the wisdom in not counting the top and choosing to simply move with the trend, but you have been trading for many years...in fact, I was in the 3rd grade when you started trading. what would cause a person with so much experience to change his stance? you definitely know stuff that i do not know which is what began to make me think more bearishly during this bull trend...are you insinuating that it is more right to think with the trend? please do not take this as "mud-slinging yuk yuk" because it is not at all....i am genuinely wanting to learn right now. thanx.

Leisa said...

"I'm surprised leis has a computer to type on after being so wrong about the market. You have been short since the Feb correction and deserve to lose everything."

What an impolite comment. Deserve to lose everything? How sad for you to be so mean. You needn't worry about me or my bank account. And, I don't HAVE to be in the market. I'm not trying to be wall street material. Not everyone is a trader, and I'm not a trader.

Deric O. Cadora said...

Discouraged bears should take a peek at a 3-year chart of TOL. Notice in late '04, early '05 how the stock went into a relentless rally even as respected prognosticators were calling a bubble in housing. In March/April '05, TOL took a big dip, and the bears were rejoicing, only to get whipsawed when TOL blasted off into the stratosphere.

The early '05 correction for TOL looks a whole lot like what the indices did in Feb/Mar this year, and we now seem to be in the stratosphere phase. I maintain my opinion, posted here a few days ago, that the current rally is the last phase of the bull market, and it will leave behind a monster HS pattern. The '05-'06 slide in TOL may be looking very familiar come January.

Tim Knight said...

Leisa, pay no mind to the human garbage that likes to post. There's enough good commentary to make it worthwhile.

Anonymous said...

I whole heartedly agree !! Obviously these folks won't be called upon to solve any third world problems now or in the future !!



Tim Knight said...
Leisa, pay no mind to the human garbage that likes to post. There's enough good commentary to make it worthwhile.

iknowwhaturdoing said...

OK I've just figured it out.

Tim is a paid hand of Wall Street - and so are many of the other bearish bloggers and commentators like Herb Greenwhatever on CNBC.

They are paid to spread bearish
ideas and create worry and fear and invite short selling - Wall Street leverages off this wall of worry to move the market higher.

And they all trade against their bearish hype.

Shame on you All!

Strong denials will only confirm it.

Shame on you All!

Anonymous said...

Dr./Philanthropist/ 7:09

When Albert Schweitzer starts cruising the blogs and commenting, then you will know there is there one blogster among us who might be solving some third world problems,In the mean time,the rest of us (including U ) are either here to make suggestions,vent frustration,or be pompous and arrogant and point fingers.You're already guilty of some of that .Oh and by the way...Are you in Zimbabwe living in a mud hut educating and feeding families with your own resources ?

Did'nt think so !!!

Anonymous said...

You did capitulate once before, last year... and you second-guessed yourself two days later. Remember?
When I called you on it, you said, "it's my blog and I can say what I like."
Are you going to do the same thing again?

Tim Knight said...

"You did capitulate once before, last year... and you second-guessed yourself two days later. Remember?
When I called you on it, you said, "it's my blog and I can say what I like."
Are you going to do the same thing again?"

I am not capitulating. I am simply saying calling a top in real time is a fool's game, and I'm tired of playing the fool. Enough.

Leisa said...

Tim--You just have to wonder about the type of person some of these 'people' are that toss these grenades out. It such childish and cowardly behavior--and mean, too. My favorite bumper sticker (though I've not seen it in ages) is "Mean People Suck".

But I'm a big girl, and the "anonymous" grenade thrower(s) is just a little boy in all the ways that one can imagine that.

Tim Knight said...

"But I'm a big girl, and the "anonymous" grenade thrower(s) is just a little boy in all the ways that one can imagine that."

I hear ya (Tim waves his pinky back and forth)

anonymust said...

Tim and Leisa...

Hurry up and capitulate and turn bullish.

Because until you do you are only fueling the bullish flames.

wincity said...

Market will reverse next week. Could even be Monday.

I used to read Yahoo stock message boards. In my experience, when bulls cry, the stock rebounds big. When bears weep, the stock crashes. Always worked.

I'm amazed by the froth from the bulls here.

superbull0001 said...

It seems like kiddie bears (like dennis at this site) are giving up but papa bears like Tim Knight, Barry Ritholtz, Doug Kass, Richard Suttmeier, Nouriel Roubini, John Hussman, and John Mauldin are still desperately hanging on. But the markets won't top until they all give up.

Leisa said...

I'm not sure how I've gotten tagged with being a bear. I do have a couple of short positions and it is true that I find the fundamentals tortuous. But I do have a few longs.

Anonymous said...

I work in a factory. One of my workmates is a fellow known as Big Dog. Big and dumb as a man can come with balls of steel. He's a year from retirement and has been 100% invested in stocks since around 1994. Tells me, just buy and hold thats all you have to do. If it goes down just ride it out it always comes back. I kind of use him as a barometer. (a la Joe Kennedy and the bootblack)Well....Big Dog is crowing about his stock market gains again!

beanie11111 said...

wrong superbull101!!

Barry Ritholtz is giving up on the bear side. Barry Ritholdz gives a reason (excuse!) why the market isn't tanking:

http://usmarket.seekingalpha.com/article/32966?source=d_email&u=25925


That means his friend Doug Kass is gettin killed with his shorts!!!!!

beanie11111 said...

New super recommendation: NDAQ!!!!!

It's time to get into NDAQ!!!!!!!!!!

NDAQ closed @ 32.14

The stock is now above the 200dayMA of 31.83 on the daily chart and also above the 40dayMA of 32.12 on the weekly chart. If it can keep staying above those averages next week, it is very bullish that will send this stock to much higher prices.

Earnings have nearly doubled from last year, exluding the costs of the failed LSE acquisition. The company indicates they are going into options aggressively, which should help further the price.

I think the stock will see $60 by year end.

www.beanie11111.blogspot.com

Anonymous said...

Tim

The charts show break-outs in everything. New highs, strong trends, yet not over-bought on many indicators.

This looks bad for us bears.

Did you lighten up on your puts with the recent run-up?

Thanks for hanging in there with your blog.

Dave

beanie11111 said...

sorry folks, correction starts in May. By that time all bears will be bankrupted.

Anonymous said...

I think the crash will start sooner than most people think, as early as next week. Hold on bears!

The Sound said...

Tim

Aren't you seeing a lot of Reverse Symmetrical Triangles in the charts?

Tim Knight said...

I try - - I really try - - to look at the market with an open mind. I just went through about 300 charts of stocks performing well. I don't see a single 'buy' among them. YES, momentum may make them go higher. YES, the "greater fool" theory still holds. But these aren't classic technical setups. They are momentum plays. And even if it pushes every one of these 100% higher, I just can't do it. I can't buy stupid. So be stupid and be rich. I just can't.

buythebuy said...

Buy Tim.. Buy Now... you can...

Maybe you need therapy to find out why you are scared to profit from the upside and only want to profit on the downside.

The market is calling you Tim...

Buy me Buy me Buy me

Anonymous said...

this market is probably going higher based on the psychology that it just has to go higher. Its the time when you least expect it that it will come down, that time is unknown. We havent entered a bear market in about 5 years, many do say one is coming due to the fact of how long this one lasted. Im a bear and being a bear hasnt worked out. I have noticed that staying long in this market is the only way to make money, now when I mean staying long I'm not talking about buying up individual stocks, I'm talking about sector ETFs and Mutual Funds. I pulled out some of my old Mutual funds from 1996 that I bought but sold about 1998-1999 time frame. I looked at them this past weekend and noticed how most of them touched a peak in 1999-2000, sold off but came roaring back in the last 7 years. All 4 paid nice dividends, one actually paid over $20 in dividends in the last 11 years. What im saying here is after looking at statisics its true that in the long term your GUARANTEED a return on your investment at least an 8% return according to most research.

I may be bearish now but on in the next bear market when I do cover my shorts and sell my inverse funds im going long and staying long until the day I retire. There is no use fighting a market that only goes up, especially one like this one. Seems no matter what happens in this economy or society the market is in its own world. It does what it needs to do and that is make people money. I have learned never to fight this market, this bear will go bull on the next correction.

Anonymous said...

Tim Knight wrote:
"I am not capitulating."
Isn't that a bit like saying, "I'm not committing suicide; I'm just killing myself"?
I guess I shouldn't have used the harsh word "capitulate" in my question to you as to whether you were going to repeat your "give-up" stance of last year and then reneg on it two days later. Maybe I should have just confined myself to asking you if you were going to "adjust your thinking" once more and then "readjust the adjustment" a few days later... MUCH better for the male ego, huh?

Yuri said...

Seems to me that the sheer fact that the SPX is only 45 points or so from taking out it's all-time high, makes it a forgone conclusion - DOW 13,000 similarly. That there are bearish divergences all over the place, also seems apparent. I, for one, have started to build some bearish positions - because, let's face it - anything that wasn't moving on friday is bound to take quite a tumble if and when this market starts correcting. Take a look at some of the financials, stuff like CME. NYX, BAC - they were not participating. Which brings up the major divergence out there - lack of breadth. This engine is running on a few good cylinders - that's it. The point I would make, and Tim has mentioned this in the past - with the VIX so low right now, your puts are cheap, and the risk/reward is favorable. The market's job is to take your money, and would like nothing more than to pull off a quick 25 point drop on the SPX, have the VIX shoot up 15%, all the newly converted bears buy their puts at inflated prices, only to see a bounce back rally to these new highs. Guess who makes the money in this scenario. I like someone's suggestion that you have to be nimble, pick your spots, and grab your profits by making sound financial decisions, where the risk/reward is in YOUR favor, not THEIRS. Let's face it, many traders are about to cash in some of their chips and we WILL see a pullback shortly. Start buying a few puts on stuff that is not in rally mode, and you won't be disappointed with the results. In terms of TA, hopefully we see perhaps a spinning top or two, perhaps an exhaustion gap, some confirmation, and then - WHAMMO!!

Anonymous said...

tim all you seem to do is fight the tape, and you have been major league wrong ever since i found this blog. something clearly wrong with your analysis. I'd take up something else. This tells me if you have been making real bets that you have been so wrong on - your account should have taken some big hits - along with any sheep here who listened. your probably not even trading. why dont you show us some confirms if your so good? guess you need book sales and adwords clicks to bail you out, ha! what do wanna bee traders do who can't trade for a living? they write about it and try to sell books on sites like this.

gary said...

I'm not sure why some bulls find it neccesary to gloat. Seems childish to me. Folks the market goes both ways. If we do get a pullback next week (I find it highly likely) then the only question is do you use the pullback as confirmation of your bearish views or do you use it to enter long positions and get in line with the trend. Somebody in an earlier post put forth the view that we are in the final phase of this bull. I would agree. The bullish sentiment is starting to get excessive. I do think we probably still go much higher. There will be an opportunity to short but I don't think we're there yet.

Market Always Winz said...

Tim will Buy once the S&P 500 makes a new high and keeps going.

He will then go bearish when it pulls back - but the pullback will reverse and it goes higher again.

Totally frustrated Tim will then go Bullish finally swearing off all short selling.

The market will then begin a large fast decline and he won't short - the market will then be in a Bear.



Enjoy.

Tim Knight said...

As tempting as it is to shutter off the anonymous postings - - many of which I suspect are from the same person - - I prefer to just let them ride. I'm big enough to take these taunts, and I think a public forum deserves an airing of all views, no matter how childish.

For the more rational among you, let me repeat - my discouragement at calling a top is not "capitulation." This market needs to be taken day at a time, and it's obvious to me that any top is going to have to be called far after the fact. There's just no point in pretending ANYONE can identify the market's ultimate peak.

BullsEye said...

A lesson about the media...

It is used by Wall Street to convince the public that something is occuring that is not.

You bears have been fed all these horror stories, Iraq, Terrorism, running out of oil, housing crisis, carry trade blah blah blah.

It is all malarky - the Wall Street boys are laughing in their boots - they spread the same BS when the market was starting to rise in '03 - only that time it was the SARS epidemic. Or remember last August - it was the Israel Lebanon war.

All along the US economy has been getting better and better.

Earnings are fine.

The market is as cheap as it has been for years - growth stocks are the cheapest in over 15 years.

Soon the clouds are going to lift - and you will all realize what dupes you have been for missing out on the continuation of the greatest bull market of all time - this time a global phenomena.

I am not hyping anything.
Just look at the charts - they don't lie - they are going up - not down. Get it!

bullseye

Anonymous said...

Tim:

I think we have one more year. one more year of this crazy bullish market. than the whole global will go down together..

shorttillyourbroke said...

Pack it in.

Close it down.

You're done.

plunger said...

"sorry folks, correction starts in May. By that time all bears will be bankrupted"

wtf, and how the hell do you know that captain market, are you one of the mr market all the moolies talk about? manipulating the masses? calling a correction,,, what a bunch of shit,,

we've got four distribution days in the past four weeks, a sell off is coming soon, but exactly when? who knows,,, not some fucking dead dog on a couch thats for sure.

good blog tim, you post opinions and back em up, fuck all the cheap shots out there,

TheMarketzRightNotU said...

The following people can't get anything right about the market.

Bill Cara
Tim Knight
Maudlin
Barry Rhino holtz
Kass
Hussman
Prechter

They live in a world of ideas and feelings about the market - rather than trading the market itself.

Anonymous said...

Ya marketz I agree...

I lost a lot of opportunity and money listening to these stupid Bearish blogs...

If retail is afraid BUY that's the lesson I learned.

Anonymous said...

What the fuck, asia is up again!!!

futures green again!!!!

Who wants to see the market drop??

Good, Ill go long tomorrow, that should mark the top since anytime I do go long it drops and short, it rallies.


I bought calls on the DIA on Feb 26th, guessss what happened the next day???

HAHAHAHAH

market is fucking irrational and what goes straight up usually comes back down even harder. When it does come down hard dont be crying, because there are a ton of opportunities to sell right now, right here.

Anonymous said...

COME ON WHAT THE FUCK IS WRONG HERE:

^SSEC Shanghai Composite 3,674.72 11:10PM ET Up 90.52 (2.53%)


DOES ANYONE SEE IT.... I MEAN COME ON.

UP ANOTHER 2%. I KNOW I MAY BE YEARS OFF BUT WHEN THE SHANGHAI ENTERS A BEAR MARKET ITS NOT GOING TO BE PRETTY.

Anonymous said...

^SSEC Shanghai Composite 3,677.43 11:11PM ET Up 93.23 (2.60%

Anonymous said...

^SSEC Shanghai Composite 3,680.45 11:14PM ET Up 96.25 (2.69%)

Anonymous said...

going for a straight 100 gain.

Anonymous said...

how those Russell 2000 options position short tim. must be painful to miss out on the big feb28 market decline buy closing your position early for a small gain and then giving it back and some in this current up move. ouch a few hundred thousand down the drain. hehe good luck anyways bear.

Anonymous said...

can someone explain what the next blow off top will look like?

If you cant, what did the last 2 blow off tops look like?

Anonymous said...

Bear capitulation is last stage before big sell off. Take a look Tim of Tadawul All Share index (Arabian Saudi Index) and Shangai Composite, see what happened since 2005 66% DOWN!!! in Saudi index Because of similiraties of bubble (people getting mortgages in both countries to speculate in stock markets) we are gonna see same blow off probably this week.
Regards.

Javier

Anonymous said...

Tim --

Can't tell you how much I appreciate your daily remarks, which many times have presaged major market swings. Please, please, please keep up the good work!

Illegitimus Non Carborundum!

~ Roy

Yuri said...

Hey, guess what? Those puts I mentioned as being cheap as of friday, just got more expensive. As I write this, the SPX is flat, but my SPX puts are up $1.70 - what does that tell you?

Kool Kat said...

I trade the ES primarily, and a "certifiable" bull, but right now I cannot find a reason (set up) to buy.

Top calling sucks but hard to resist it, So here goes, 13035 for the DOW and 1500-03 for the SnP500. That said, Either we are at a top or as someone mentioned we are just at the beginning of a New bull rally, even if it is the beginning of a new Rally, there is going to be a considerable down side before an meaningful new high/s. The Question here is can the bulls take a 10+% hit (of the total Index value) and yet be laughing all the way to the bank?

A Hit is going to come , that is an almost certainty, Bull or Bear phase will be determined after that.

As of now there is absolutely no evidence to suggest building of short positions , maybe our eagerness to catch the top ? A sin I have often committed (to my folly) in the past.

To the Bulls, what is the stop for longs, and is there a target?

My Call - the bears shall be mauling the bulls before May is over.