Thursday, April 05, 2007

Pickle Surprise!

Six up days in a row on the $INDU. I'm glad this week is over. Hopefully, after a three day descent, we'll be resurrected a la Jesus on Monday. Who knows......

It's the same story I've been citing on the major indexes. Although we're pushing higher and higher, we're still under that major trendline that was broken on February 27th. I've circled the highest target area. Of course, if we cross above that tinted zone (the former high in February), it's time to return to aluminum siding sales, door-to-door.


Here's an interesting chart for you. These are three moving averages (50, 100, and 200 day) against the $NDX, but I've hidden the prices. I've put an arrow at each recent instance where the 50 day crossed below the 100 day while the 200 day was still moving up.


Now let's take a look at the same graph, but this time with prices. I've highlighted the price action (all the way to the turnaround point) after each of these instances. Interesting.


I am deeply disappointed - and maybe even a tad disillusioned - that the indexes have pushed past their late March highs. That's not good. It indicates more strength on the bulls part than I anticipated. My waning confidence makes me consider that it is a real possibility we could push onto new highs this month.


The $XMI graph still gives me some hope. The spurt from July to February made sense. In fact, I mentioned late last summer how bullish the $XMI looked, because it was emerging from a pretty substantial base. But there's no base this time. This is a retracement.


To lift our spirits from such a crummy week, I offer not just one but two videos - - and no clowns are involved. The first one might be handy for that big Easter brunch you are planning. I present.......Pickle Surprise:



The next one requires a bit of explanation (assuming you survived the one above). Marissa Mayer is one of Google's earliest employees, and she's one of their VPs now. As such, she's very, very rich. But she also sports what most be earth's most bizarre laugh. Yes, a person can be young, pretty, and completely loaded.......but future prospective husbands may still take pause at living with this laugh the rest of their lives. Click Play. It must be heard to be believed.

52 comments:

stockshaker said...

How quickly we are eager to throw in towels...

Looking at strength on oscillators on a 3 year graph shows there is still plenty of downside before an equilibrium is maintainted (and THAT would be when I'll start looking at long plays). To be more specific, take a look at the MACD oscillator on a weekly timeframe, zoom out to to a 3 year, and you'll see what I'm talking about (which would be).

As the market keeps pushing higher without confidence, or volume, it only reminds of what happened last year between March and April. Where we had little pegs of uplifts, only to have it swept away around mid to late April. Take a look at how the trends, and oscillators are almost carbon copy.

Just spooky.

What happened in February was not some freak accident, it was justified technically - there is still some more downshift before we can start pushing higher.

But my outlook is based on weekly graphs, not daily.

I wouldn't start getting worried. But if things are to be similar to last year, we can see at least two to three weeks or just sideways.

LifePost said...

I'm not sure which of those videos was scarier...YIKES!!!

Anonymous said...

It is difficult for me to see how employment can hold up when housing is weakening and business expenditure is also weakening. If employment takes a dive, then there is no way the consumers can service their massive debts. So, unemployment is the key in my opinion. Tomorrow's unemployment report should be weak and that might cause a selloff next week.

-Dennis

dbohntr said...

No amount of money would be worth waking up to that sound. It almost sounds fake, it is bizarre. Did she even say anything? Pickle surprise? too much.
Tim, really like the chart, it gives me something to think about as we move foreward. Although a lot of things looked tempting, RATE is in full re-test mode on volume divergence. Keep up the good work.

Anonymous said...

Id hit it

z-stock said...

yesterday...
theriteway2000
I shorted CCJ...uranium...AT 45.01....
z-stock.....
>

today....
theriteway2000
I lost...CCJ...went to 46.37....
z-stock....stopped out 45.4....
will try short CCJ..again Monday

Jerkin Gherkin said...

So what's the surprise? Sounds like Marissa's hamming it up on the pickle.

JakeGint said...

I gotta think that tape was doctored to oversprinkle her goofy nervous laugh.

Listen, if she's hot smart and rich?

I'll deal with the damn laugh.

theriteway2000 said...

ROFL...thanks for that video clip of the laugh. No amount of money is worth having to live with that. What a nerd.

Time, the markets up again though. When will you admit you were wrong and give bulls full credit? No amount of charts and lines will refute the fact that your predictions, puts, and short calls went to hell.

Tim Knight said...

"Time, the markets up again though. When will you admit you were wrong and give bulls full credit?"

It's 'Tim'

Anyway.........WHAT full credit? The bulls I see here just stomp and bluster.

I'll give full credit when someone shows up with a SPECIFIC recommendation (with a stop) and the stock goes up big-time. Then credit is due. Just stomping around saying markets only go up doesn't cut it.

Doug said...

i actually started meditating, mantra and all, 3 months ago to improve my focus on the market, and increase my intuition. I think its working too. found it strange "pickle surprise" started meditating with the third eye on hat and all. strange, strange, strange. Meditation is the secrets to higher consciousness. Does Tim Knight meditate?

Tim Knight said...

"i actually started meditating, mantra and all, 3 months ago to improve my focus on the market, and increase my intuition. I think its working too. found it strange "pickle surprise" started meditating with the third eye on hat and all. strange, strange, strange. Meditation is the secrets to higher consciousness. Does Tim Knight meditate?"

Yes. My mantra is "ham."

Anonymous said...

Tim,

You shall give Plunge Protection Team full credit.

To follow the PPT is probably a perfect way of making money. The relationship between Goldman Sachs and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has born delicious fruit for the average Goldman employee, whose bonus last year outshines average employees in the other part of the Wall Street.

ZZ

Anonymous said...

Good evening sir,
Tim, now that the diamond chart was violated for Black and Decker are you still holding on to the $85.29 stop or did you get out today?

Under what conditions do you get out before it hits your stop? Or do your rules say " stops rule"?

Also regarding GS with the stop at $212.69. Is there any reason you would get out with the whole market moving up but only on weak volume? If the volume increased next week will it make a difference?

I have been reading you for the last year and not only learned alot, but because of your willingness to share I have made some cash. I really like learning this way.
Thank you for being so generous.

K in Sac

Anonymous said...

Tim,

Just how reliable has this indicator been in the last 20 years or so ?

Here's an interesting chart for you. These are three moving averages (50, 100, and 200 day) against the $NDX, but I've hidden the prices. I've put an arrow at each recent instance where the 50 day crossed below the 100 day while the 200 day was still moving up.

Anonymous said...

unemployment report +180000
dow futures up 50
s&p futures up 10

market at feb 26 level

seems like 7th straight day to upside.

Anonymous said...

The markets shrugged off lousy employment repots. Markets are going to grind up for quite some time above all time highs. That $Trillion Oil surplus that the middle east has with the world is being poured into the US stock market. Look at the after hours spike on the GLOBEX eminis.

wattson7 said...

Tim, I am still following OIH,NBL,BA,AAPL,VMC,HLT,BDK,SHLD,LMT,BAC,AKAM,CKH,MSTR,AHM,CAL,GS these have not stopped out yet. I believe we fill the NAS gap and head down. Look at GS Interesting!! The gap was filled and it's heading down. GS leads and follows the NAS to the tee and is a good indicator as to where the market is heading. Could you check this and respond.

Anonymous said...

bonds down, yields up
dollar up
stock futures up.

what is the prediction for monday. blow off the top

Leisa said...

Re pickle video--didn't they call that thing Pickles the Clown?--Therefore, it is a clown video.

Re 2nd video: clearly doctored. Any of us would sound like ding dongs if they took a 2 second clip of our laugh and makde it 30 seconds.

Re: meditation--I took a TM class years ago. It's like exercise--you have to make time to do it, and if you do it you will see results. Meditation is also like sex--never the same thing twice. Meditation is also hard--for trying to get the mind to stop thinking is trying to subdue a surly 2 year old. I hope that you continue it Doug.

Tim--"ham" would actually be a pretty good mantra--it "ing" "mms" have vibrational characteristics to the mind even when thought v. spoken which works like a tuning fork.

re jobs number--Like Gomer Pyle's "Surpise, surprise". Tim, find a Gomer Pyle video, please!

Anonymous said...

ok this is beyond absurd...

This guy tom2oc claims to be the ultimate soothsayer. As I mentioned in my previous comment, this guy has 1 pathetic nasdaq graph in which he has 2 suggested paths and yes as you guessed it, one indicates the markets going higher and the other one obviously the market going lower. And he claims that Mr Market comes to his house every morning to listen to what he wants the market to do that day. I think this guy is in his own little world.

http://tom2oc.blogspot.com/2007/04/45-eod-eow.html

Here's my take for Monday:
a. we go 50 higher on NAZ
b. we go 20 higher on NAZ
c. unchanged for NAZ
d. NAZ goes down 20
e. NAZ goes down 50

You see any way the marker moves, I will win :-)

I wanted to post this on his blog, but as you guessed he does not accept comments. I guess nobody has the balls except Tim here.

As always-

yours
Jim Cramer

Booyah!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The Blog Peruser said...

J C

What are you reading...2 blog sites ? There are at least a hundred market commentary blogsites that take comments out there that I know of.Take your pick. And as for Knights balls..well they must be the size of salt granules,because remember,he's so short he could jump off a nickel .

Anonymous said...

The Blog Peruser,

The reason why I posted the comment here about tom2oc is I saw him comment here. So, I thought he might see my comments here.

To your other comment, I should have said 'Not many people have the balls to take Anonmyous comments like Tim' instead of 'I guess nobody has the balls except Tim here'

yours
Jim Cramer

The Blog Peruser said...

J C

Alright & Understood. It's Friday evening,warm and beautiful in Tucson,Az and I should be be doing anything but perusing the blogs !
Here's to a profitable week coming up. Adios for now !

Anonymous said...

Marissa is a really cute girl. That video Tim posted does not to justice to the "package".

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=soYKFWqVVzg&mode=related&search=

Anonymous said...

Jim Cramer

Forget tom2oc, he is a total loser and he will mislead you he has no clue about anything. Tom2oc is worse than Tim2oc Knight.

I like Marissa, nice curves... and she has money $$$$$$$$????? Nice package then.

Daniel said...

She sure is pretty the google girl. But after a date when I'd charm her and hear her laughing, i'd have second doubts :)

Anonymous said...

Yes, all that is fine but.... does she swallow?

Tim Knight said...

...and it is at this point when one considers the wisdom of welcoming anonymous posters.

One comment, by the way - - don't confuse an airbrushed, picture perfect corporate photo with reality. Take a look at the Stanford video and you'll see she's relatively average looking. It's only her net worth which is magnificent.

JakeGint said...

Says the spoiled California guy.

The secret word is "lepqiw"

TOMTHETRADER said...

JUST TODAY
AEIS +2.4 %
AMR + 2.2 %
BLUD + 9.15%
EMC + 1.01 %
GLW + 2.05%
INTC +1.03 %
NSM + 1.4%
QLD + 1.10 %
TSM + 1.76 % One day totals of the TTT hedge fund ....

Cramer ..I should call you by your real name but I have decided to be decent. I have seen you pound everyone and I have posted all of my stocks and yes i am perfect. You and everyone can say that it is all smoke and mirrors or like Tom2oc can say it can go either way but from June 7th 2006 I have been on the right side and have 8x my money...I have developed a new portfolio and new tracking so you and your spare time can track my portfolio and try to be cruel like you do to everyone else. Wannabes are like that ..Tim is a professional Tom2oc has been close but not a stcok picker or market timer. I will be buying 20 stocks and 20 options and 20 speculative stocks over the next 30 days and fill out the portfolio so I can again go 8x my money. I can't wait to see how you can disappear when it is right. As far as the markets after their short term party Monday morning there will probably be some trouble the next few days ...I am 95 % cash with a shot at buying some puts after a gap open on Monday. Iwill load up and use the $175,000.00 cash during any pullbacks and will fill out my portfolio by Mid - May...If you would like to join..Cramer ..It is $25,000.00 for you and you can Paypal me anytime

http://www.ttthedgefund.blogspot.com

Anonymous said...

We are going up until everyone gets out of their shorts, then it will be look out below!

z-stock said...

Tim...
I had to open up two separate windows, so I could view each NDQ...chart ...side by side....“”How in the heck....do you find this stuff....””” clearly shows ...what to look for going forward in the market....Bravo...

Zee...

TOMTHETRADER said...

02/27/2007 Sell To Close 40 QQQCN QQQQ MAR 40 Call $
02/27/2007 Buy To Open 40 QQQCN QQQQ MAR 40 Call
02/27/2007 Sell To Close 10 IOWOD IWM MAR 82 Put
02/27/2007 Buy To Open 10 IOWOD IWM MAR 82 Put
02/27/2007 Sell To Close 60 IZZQE IWN MAY 83 Put
02/27/2007 Sell To Close 30 IZZQE IWN MAY 83 Put
02/27/2007 Sell To Close 10 IZZQE IWN MAY 83 Put
02/27/2007 Sell To Close 10 RZAOM OEX MAR WK A 665 Put
02/26/2007 Sell To Close 50 SFBRQ SPY JUN 147 Put
02/26/2007 Buy To Open 10 RZAOM OEX MAR WK A 665 Put
02/26/2007 Sell To Close 50 QQQOT QQQQ MAR 46 Put
02/26/2007 Buy To Open 50 IZZQE IWN MAY 83 Put
02/26/2007 Buy To Open 50 SFBRQ SPY JUN 147 Put
02/26/2007 Buy To Open 100 QQQOT QQQQ MAR 46 Put
02/26/2007 Sell To Close 17 QQQOT QQQQ MAR 46 Put
02/23/2007 Sell 10000 NDAQ NASDAQ STOCK MARKET
02/23/2007 Sell To Close 10 SXZOJ SPX MAR 1450 Put
02/23/2007 Buy To Open 20 QQQOT QQQQ MAR 46 Put
02/23/2007 Sell To Close 10 SXZOJ SPX MAR 1450 Put
02/23/2007 Buy To Open 20 SXZOJ SPX MAR 1450 Put


Someone called me a PERMABULL and that I was 100% long into the correction and I wanted to show those Naysayers that my members and I were expecting the correction and we positioned correctly...Tim and I spoke at the time how we both sold our puts too soon...a huge mistake that cost me 10's of thousands of dollars but the key thing is I got my members back into stock and then options and we have killed the market over the last 60 days. We all make mistakes but I feel the TTT HEDGE FUND limits risk and gets huge profits thanks to aggressively acting upon short term indicators that have proven very relieble and with lower commissions...we cut down on the average cost per trade. We are the most successful memebrship based investment site on the web.


http://www.ttthedgefund.blogspot.com

Tom

"Buy The Book"

Anonymous said...

tomthetrader

if you are so good, why are you soliciting? why not keep your money and make more quietly instead of trawling around Tim's blog? Why not manage some multi-million dollar hedge fund by trawling really wealthy old ladies in the East Coast? What are you doing on blogs like these where losers like me and other wannabee's spend our Easter holiday? Shame on you tomthetrader, you are a loser!

TradingGoddess said...

Anyone ever hear Jeff Bezos from AMZN laugh?

If he and Marissa ever get together, let me know. I will be jumping off the Golden Gate Bridge!

beanie11111 said...

Don't Buy Put Options While Depressed!

------

In my opinion, antidepressants like Prozac are dangerous and can make a person more depressed and even suicidal. The best thing to do is to look for natural alternatives - like consulting with an acupuncturist. The FDA even has a say in this: http://www.breggin.com/Breggin_Observations_on_Paxil_Suicide_in_Adults._May_2006.html


Incidents like that of the Columbine, did depression cause them to shoot a bunch of school kids or did the drugs make them more depressive and suicidal that they shoot the kids? You decide.

Watch this illustrated story:
http://www.mercola.com/townofallopath/index.htm


Is it no wonder America is ranked above 25 in health of all industrialized nations even though we got the most and the best doctors?


http://www.breggin.com/Breggin_Observations_on_Paxil_Suicide_in_Adults._May_2006.html


"Buried in the FDA/GSK release is an astounding fact: Depressed people are 6.4 times more likely to become suicidal while taking an antidepressant than while taking a sugar pill. [2]"


---

hey, maybe Tom Cruise knew more about psychiatry and depression than most people think!!

Doug said...

only a genius can truly see the genius in pickle surprise

Anonymous said...

I love reading the constructive comments on this blog and am capable of discerning the value or lack of value in them. The banter among those with differing viewpoints is stimulating; but, some posters feel the need to insult other contributors and make this into a testosterone battle (estrogen is never this bad). I love the sense of humor and the array of opinions; keep it up, but lets forgo the nasty insults aimed at those with divergent viewpoints. It detracts from the credibility of the blog.

Do you think that CME has bounced off its descending resistance to at least return to its ascending support over the short term? I guess Monday will tell. Thoughts?

Blogger is being especially stubborn today!!!!

Debbie Davis
Antioch, IL

M.A.S said...

was just browsing thru,cool blog Tim, nothing like a bunch of Anonymous traders jousting in the blogger pits...
Good Luck and continued success!
MAS

Anonymous said...

tomthetrader will pay $75 to post here from Monday.
send by paypal to marissa@google.com

Mike said...

more pain coming in the housing markets ... check out this chart ..
yow sah ...

http://www.kitco.com/images/commmentary/Willie/apr052007_1.jpg

Anonymous said...

fuc tomthetrader and this hedgefund scam shit.

Anonymous said...

buy buy buy buy buy buy

who is buying???????

Anonymous said...

come on, look back before the 27th when everyone thought 13,000 was coming, boy were they really wrong, just because were up over 6 days in a row doesnt mean we can get another 5% sell off.

Anonymous said...

CANT get another 5% sell off.

Anonymous said...

Talking heads say the market looks poised to move higher.

Anonymous said...

talking heads should just shut the F$ck up.


Wait till the emerging markets drop 25% in 2 weeks, wont be funny will it.

I THINK ITS TIME TO TAKE PROFITS OFF OF ANY EMERGING MARKET PLAYS

EEM
EWC
EWS
EWJ
EWZ
EWW
MXE
GCH
FXI
EPP
ILF


ETC
ETC
ETC
ETC
ETC

THERE ALL OVERVALUED AND READY FOR A NICE SELL OFF......

Anonymous said...

DOW going for another record winning streak, making it 7 in a row. Last time it closed lower was at 12,300, up 277 points in 7 days. OR 40 points 7 times in a row. Nothing like a stock market that only goes up.

TradeItLikeItIs said...

Either way this market is still moving higher one way or the other - so just stay out of the way.

Insiders bought the the dip in Feb Mar. And way way too many people short.

Worst that could happen is another quick drop - which will be bought.

Think about it:
If the insiders that run the market knew there was going to be a recession they would have cashed out a long time ago: they haven't - --- so we go higher. They set the direction of the market - not blogs.

Don't fight this.

And don't be fooled by scare stories, these are released by the insiders to the media so they can buy shares on the cheap - that's what happened in Feb Mar - the manufactured scare was 'Yen Carry Trade Ending' - this is BS.

Now we may just go sideways with a little dip during earnings - or maybe we go up anyways on bad earnings.

Tim's trying to call tops IMO.
I've learned this is a useless endeavour. The insiders determine the top - not the charts.

Stay long until the signs are clear - then 'Short what you can Ski!

good trading

Anonymous said...

12:53, once the yen carry trade goes BYE BYE expect these markets to drop significantly, the only reason why these markets and every market around the world is rising is due to high liquidity and the yen carry trade. Once the yen carry trade is off the table dont expect this to continue. Every market is being inflated, shanghai has gone straight up since its sell off in Feb. Last night it was up over 2%, what does that tell you.

There will be another sell off in the emerging markets, I think a 40% sell off is quite likely.

marginnayan said...

The earnings season has just started and S&P just made a new high for 2007.

Well the stupid money managers do not even want to wait get a glimpse of managed S&P earnings before loading up.