Wednesday, April 04, 2007

Grace Under Pressure

The market by and large meandered today, moving slightly higher after yesterday's big push upward. The Russell 2000, on which I own the most puts, actually inched down in spite of the other major indexes pushing a bit higher.

The Major Market Index ($XMI) does a pretty good job representing where I think the market is it, which is at the upper reaches of a retracement. For it to move beyond its February highs would require surprising strength. It could happen, and if it does, it's time to return to the bear cave, perhaps for a long while.


The Diamonds (DIA) also do a pretty fair job - this time with some trendlines I've drawn - illustrating the retracement.


Capital One Financial (COF), which I've been mentioning forever, is finally starting to move meaningfully lower. It's about time.


Markwest Hydrocarbon (MWP) has had a huge run up the past few months. But look how the volume has softened up. It has been consolidating for a few weeks. This could mean a breakout, of course. This would be a more interesting short to me if the volume weren't so thin.


Pico Holdings (PICO) is something I mentioned as a long a while back. It seems to have run out of gas. I'd actually look to this as a short (with a tight stop) at this point.


Lastly, Ryan Air (RYAAY) is behaving in accordance with its broken trendline - - that is, moving away and down from it. This stock had been hyperbolic until that trendline was snapped.


Tomorrow will end this shortened trading week. Someone in the comments section has observed that most recent shortened weeks have been strongly bullish. We'll see if that's true or if people get jumpy enough about three days of a closed market to sell instead.

34 comments:

TOMTHETRADER said...

Tim ,
Tremendous commentary and I hope that Mr. Cramer a.k.a. () I can't do it two days in a row !!! I think that the Bears should be a bit pleased as whenever the markets have traded in this tight of a range in a one day period ...the result has been poor for the Bulls...a loss over the next 30 day period of .7%..so don't go hiding on us as it may just get interesting . I have my members 130% long with options and BLUD just came out with earnings and they seem like the chart was right in saying it would go up...BLUD is a great hold and we were lucky enough to have some !!! Tomorrow is up .5% over 70% of the time so it may be a time to load up on puts as the tax payment blues for the Bulls could get the Bears right back in the game !!!

The book is kinda like BLUD ...you can't live without it !!!

http://www.ttthedgefund.blogspot.com

TOMTHETRADER

Anonymous said...

ttthedgefund, you beat me today. That was a little early today with your advertisement and daily dose of ass licking.

Well it is common sense that if you can always pick winners, then you wouldn't be on this site or for that matter trading. Leave alone your ttthedgefund.

Can you please explain what is 130%, and why only 130% why not 1300%? I don't think you will be here today to read this comment.

Boo-yah!!!!!!!!!!

yours
Jim Cramer

TOMTHETRADER said...

DICKLESS CRAMER ..is QLD 200% long or are you an idiot ...Give a guy a Forum and he shows you he is another Einstein...without a dick !!!

Anonymous said...

I am a bear, and I've recently lost money, but i will be patient. the time will come again. And like I said before, when the markets tank everyone will be singing tim's praises and licking his ass the way tomthetrader has been doing everyday in bull and bear markets, it doesn't bother him. Gee tomthetrader, have you ever heard that the sharper the tongue the tighter spaces it will squeeze in? Keep licking, but no need to get sharp with anyone and bad language. Also you can do your licking via private emails or something else, we all don't need to know about it everyday... if you are a grown man you disgust me. Quit pandering

Anonymous said...

Americans living out of their means
by Herb Greenberg.


http://blogs.marketwatch.com/greenberg/2007/04/americans_livin.html#comments

However stock market go up like crazy everyday. What is going on ??

Anonymous said...

What's stock market got to do with American's lifestyle or spending habits? Stock market is open to anyone in the world (asians, europeans etc) to put their money in and out, why would Americans' inability to pay bills have anything to do with Chinese govt. or Japanese or Arab oil money flocking in/out?

JakeGint said...

Tom the Trader is FOS, in my humble opinion. He solicits questions (along with $$$) on his blog and via email, and then ignores them. Not a whole lot of honesty in his pitch, and then there's this cherrypicking winners like BLUD that he's "lucky" enough to have owned after they've evidenced a move.

Convenient, that.
_____________

Tim, if you're going to allow anonymous posters then why not also allow anonymous robots who can't read the squiggly letters as well? I don't believe their offerings could be much more banal than that of Tom the Scalper, and it would save me having to decipher and copy them twice...

Just a suggestion.

Anonymous said...

take your losses and write one more bookk before it's to late bro. good luck shorty.

bullmarketskeetdaddy

Tim Knight said...

"Tim, if you're going to allow anonymous posters then why not also allow anonymous robots who can't read the squiggly letters as well?"

The comment spam is worse, believe me.

Folks, let's tone it down a bit, OK? I'm trying to be civil. And I'll try to do a better job holding my tongue when the next tumble happens. All this infighting is just silly.

theriteway2000 said...

The next tumble will happen after the markets make 52 weeks highs and bulls such as myself who bought during the dips have realized large profits while you have to cover puts at brakeven or at loss.

It seems you are once again dancing around the issue with regards to your puts. Stop listing new stocks every day and focus on the stocks you have options in.

That way readers will have a better idea of your percentage win/loss ratio which is important if you want to maintain credibility.

It seems a lot of so called gurus including Cramer make many of vague conjectures and predictions while using hedging language to offset being wrong.

When one the predictions does come true they will give themselves a big congratulatory pat on the back while the losers (which vastly outnumber the winners) get swept under the rug.

Des said...

It was my understanding that Tim posts his commentary with an admitted bearish slant and then makes observations on stocks and currencies based on his reading of charts. He's kind enough to share. I read this blog every day, but I don't come here looking for picks, or looking to see a % return that will validate Tim's efforts. I come here for the charts, the humor, and the plain enjoyment of it all. As the man himself says, "let's tone it down a bit".

Anonymous said...

Lets face it, most of the attacking posts are from smart people who probably drive fast expensive cars because they need to have a cover for something else that is lacking! We can be NICE as we all have the same goal!
Thanks to all who offer their opinion on the market!
BIG E!

Anonymous said...

Let me come to Tim's defense here as a guy who has had a bullish slant on the market. Whether you agree with his positioning or not you have to respect some one who honors their stop when it gets blown. And even more than that shares charts , and all his positions disclosing everything before the outcome of the trade. Tim regardless of my difference in oppinion on market direction . I appreciate your charts and market view and thats why I read and follow your blog !

Anonymous said...

Tim,

Today you stated you had the most puts on the RUT, yet several days ago you listed your stop at 811.05. You should have been stopped out of your puts Tuesday. Does this mean you bought more since then? Also, I love your post and find it very helpful. It takes a lot of courage to show the world what your stops were on all your positions, but I find it very helpful and I really appreciate it.

Ron

J Arp said...

Tim,
The thing that gets me is how quickly the market got oversold, without actually going anywhere. 5% is really nothing in the grand scheme of things, but wham the futures (spec accts) flipped from way long to way short in a week, P/C ratios went nuts, we got genuinely oversold. With all that selling, and all the puts being bought, after the 3% one day wonder, market really didn't budge. Have you ever seen anything like it? Sure we've seen big selling days before, but to flip from long (fat and happy) to short the (sky is falling) on a little hickup? TOO WEIRD.

Just needed to vent.
Thanks.
J

Anonymous said...

Tim
Any interest in Cycles at this point? The markets seems poised for a 9MONTH CYCLE dump as a follow to the 40WEEK we just had.

????

TIA

Tim Knight said...

"Today you stated you had the most puts on the RUT, yet several days ago you listed your stop at 811.05. "

Ron, you are right, these got stopped out, almost 9 out of my 10 equity puts are still in place. I re-entered the RUT early today.

z-stock said...

therightway2000
I shorted CCJ...uranium...AT 45.01....
z-stock.....

Anonymous said...

Tim
Block spammers like "Tom the trader" who advertise their stupid service.
it spoils the nice bull/bear chat we have going in this forum.
As a policy block all posts linking their web sites /paid memebership sites.if they can make money they wont be soliciting clients like pimps!

zeus111 said...

"DICKLESS CRAMER ..is QLD 200% long or are you an idiot ...Give a guy a Forum and he shows you he is another Einstein...without a dick !!! ".

I am not too thrilled with this language and I just don't see how it can help you or your newsletter or whatever you are running. Jim Cramer's comments maybe a bit harsh to you but I don't remember Jim Cramer calling you names, I know he did not start the name calling. Also lets face it Jim Cramer's comments are not far from the truth they are actually rigth on the spot. Your posts are nothing but a sales pitch. So if you cannot take the heat in a composed and cool manner then I suggest get out of the kitchen and spare us the sales pitch.

Anonymous said...

I think this should be it. I am sure 'Tom The Hacker' will not post here anymore. It is proven that nobody cares about his posts, ass-licking or foul language.

Boo-yah!!!!!!!!!!

yours
Jim Cramer

zeus111 said...

Tim what do you think about jrcc as a long. it seems ready to break out of its base. Smaller speculative stock that loses money but the technicals look decent.

Monster Rules said...

Top 15 creditors to NEWC.PK's $60 Bil writeoff loans

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/04/top_15_creditor.html

Link

canoegap said...

Tomthetrader..I notice that you like to crow about your supposed trading prowess, but you haven't mentioned that you told your subscribers to load the boat with longs a couple of days before the mini-crash on Feb 27.

beanie11111 said...

The next Coke of the 21st century!!

www.beanie11111.blogspot.com

Why waste time bothering shorting stocks??

---

- Piper Jaffray is increasing their tgt on Jones Soda (NASDAQ:JSDA) to $31 from $18 saying margin expansion is driving the model as the company potentially achieves 30% ACV in FY07 and 50% in FY08 of its premium private label brand. Firm believes that the initial pipeline fill is shipping and being shelved (targeted goal of Memorial Day) as expected.

The potential 2H07 "risk" remains as a sell-through period versus the 1H07 channel fill, which may be offset by marketing initiatives. The company continues to invest in human capital, most recently hiring Mr. Peter Burns as SVP of Sales/Marketing.

Piper expects Jones Soda to also invest in its brand through product line launches or extensions, over time.

They are maintaining their FY07 EPS estimate of $0.21. They are also increasing their FY08 EPS estimate by $0.10 to $0.45 based on total revenue growth of 40.8% to $69.4 million versus $63.0 million prior (and conservatively flat gross margin). Reiterates Outperform.

Tim Knight said...

I want to thank beanie11111 for actually posting a suggestion.

The thing that is bugging me most about the bulls here is that they're just pissing and moaning. Make some real suggestions! If you're so smart, give us some specific stocks with specific stops! Show your stuff!

As for this:

"Block spammers like Tom the trader who advertise their stupid service."

Not picking on Tom specifically, but in the past I've tried to see about blocking people, and it doesn't really work. You can basically let anyone post or let only "members" post. If I did the latter, we'd probably only get 4 comments a day from the same people.

Tim Knight said...

"Tim what do you think about jrcc as a long. it seems ready to break out of its base. Smaller speculative stock that loses money but the technicals look decent."

Pretty interesting turnaround! The surge in volume at the bottom is a good sign, but I would respect that low of 6.04 as a stop-loss point.

Anonymous said...

Since someone had mentioned cycles, I find it interesting that Astro Trend pegs April to be a down month with a high between April 5/9 and a small bounce midmonth continuing the slide into early may.

beanie11111 said...

Sorry i don't got enough vaseline for all the shorties, but DNDN is flyin!!!

To $50?

beanie11111 said...

In my opinion, the markets gonna have a super year in 2007. I have to tell ya that shorting is the wrong approach especially as we head into the second half of this year.

I don't want to send any Bear this condolences song but may need to.
http://www.duchessathome.com/music/rhythmofthefallingrain.html

Lauriston said...

It feels like "Bulls gone wild" for spring break! NYSE Composite back to all-time highs!! Wow, I salute the bulls!

Anonymous said...

6 Day staright up.

This market just amaze me everyday

Anonymous said...

Having watched my shorts profit turn south the last couple of days,I'm not throwing in the towel just yet. The past few days have had light voume. The market seems very ripe for a correction next week. Prefer to see where the correction goes,and yes it will correct. Then guage the correction to see if this upmove has more leg to it.

mde said...

Tim/Shorty,

Up nicely on our little bet buddy. You are losing and I expect the markets to really catch fire over the next three weeks and put in another 3-4% on top of the nice gains we've already seen this week. It feels great to put sorry a$$ bears where they belong. You and Leisha(sp?) keep talking about the bad economy and trouble in the real estate market while I cash in on my long positions and buy up foreclosed properties in my neighborhood on interest only loans. Remember, keep a tight stop on those puts pal.