Wednesday, April 25, 2007


You can thank the good people of United Airlines for my ability to get this post done relatively promptly. My brief flight from Seattle to San Francisco has been delayed three hours. So here I sit on the plane, waxing poetic about this insane market.

By the way, does anyone find this image from the login page of TMobile to be strangely suggestive? (Long, uncomfortable pause). No? I guess it's just me.

Here's the NZD/USD - - what I have to say about it is basically the same as what I've got to say in the next paragraph.....

As long as the dollar remains weak, there's going to be yet another reason for stocks to go higher. Looking at the EUR/USD chart, it's clear that we're at an extreme point, but (obviously) it could push to yet another extreme. This chart, in case it's not clear to you, shows the strength of the Euro (and, conversely, the weakness of the dollar), so mentally invert it.

What's interesting about the market is just how swiftly it has pushed higher. Look at the chart below. I've highlighted each of the most recent three "surges", and as you can see, each surge is happening with greater speed. The two lonely down periods here were last summer (oh, how I miss those days....) and - ever so briefly - about eight weeks ago.

The NASDAQ Composite is still within its rising channel, at the tippy-tippy top. Clearly Apple's (AAPL) sensational earnings will push both Apple and the NASDAQ higher first thing in the morning.

The S&P 500 is clearly above its channel. An overshot, or a whole new ball game? Search me.

If you want a truly bullish picture of the market, take a step back and look at the long-term $XMI. This is a chart of an amazing breakout, a perfect pullback, and a subsequent push to new highs. This is exactly what bull markets are made of. Astonishing.

I have suggested Akamai (AKAM) as a short before. It didn't really perform until today.

I like looking for weak stocks on a day like today, because if a stock can't get it up on a day like this, it's in sorry shape. Check out ATI.

Same goes for Colgate, which actually opened higher. Look at the honey of a bearish engulfing pattern on this one.

CRS, mentioned here yesterday, is failing its breakout, and it fell today on strong volume.

Dril Quip (DRQ), mentioned in this blog before as a buy, continues to perform well. Just about anything to do with energy (either classic or alternate) seems to be zooming these days. I can at least take heart that I am in a natural gas partnership.

General Dynamics (GD) looks like a potential short. It busted its trendline a number of weeks back, and it seems to have double topped today, falling when everything else was rising.

I don't have any particular opinion on GOOG, but it only rose one tenth of one percent today - - pretty feeble, wouldn't you say? I think it may be telling. I'd also point out that all the gains from its fantastic earnings report a few days ago have vanished. Everyone who bought into that rally - even at the day's low - is in a losing position now.

I like Southern Copper (PCU) as a short at this price.

Schnitzer Steel (SCHN) - - man, can you imagine being the receptionist there and saying that name all day long? - - continues to look fantastic as a bullish play. Wonderful strength on handsome volume.

Questar also looks good on the long side.

Given today's action, I'm glad the readers voting to take anonymous comments down. You can imagine what much mud slinging would be going on right now.


ross said...

Hello Tim,

The article at the following link should make you feel better. We are getting close, not just to the end of the rally, but to the end of the bull.

I'll leave you with one question, looking at a multiyear dollar chart (which I agree has been acting as ballast for the bull) would you be a buyer or a seller of the Greenback in here?

beanie11111 said...

Wednesday, April 25, 2007
Get the $#%^ in AAPL now!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! $200 comin'!!!

AAPL closed @ 95.35, and gapping up to 102.40 afterhours

The 100% increase in earnings is remarkable for a giant company like this. The iPods are still selling well and more importantly they are helping the iMacs take market share from the PC dominated world.

ipods + increased in marketshare of Macs + iPhone (that is sure to take market share from cellphone makers) = I see $200 stock price coming within a year.

Leisa said...

Photo--very suggestive. Hey at least they are having fun!

I love the photo the Roger N. runs on his blog which you can find here

That seemed suggestive to me as well.

Asia will go zonkers tonight. Safe Haven you will find a veritable candyland of articles that will appear to one's darker thoughts about the market.

I'm so glad not to travel anymore. One time I had to fly to western Colorado. From the Richmond, VA airport--they might as well hang a sign that says "you cannot get there from here" for 90% of chosen destinations. Our team finally arrived at about 1 a.m. eastern time having started out about 5:30 a.m. the previous morning. Torture.

JakeGint said...

Used to live in Richmond, I feel your pain. Is is still "Smoke Full?"

Like MO, tho.



When I first popped on and saw the pic and your header, I swear I thought I read "Yeeeeehaaaaa!!"

Ride 'em Sanjaya!

Anonymous said...

"Schnitzer Steel (SCHN) - - man, can you imagine being the receptionist there and saying that name all day long?"

Hahah...that's too funny. I spit a little water out when I read that. Hehehe....Glad the "Anon" posting is off. I'm tired of people tossing their opinions from the "grassy knoll". Put a face on it people or STFU.

I'm looking for a pullback here and then more upside. After that, I assume the house of cards we call the US economy will finally catch up and tank this market into October to a reasonable level. At which point, when the fear is palatable, we Buy with two hands.

Short: Nothing (are ya nuts?)

Kunal said...

I agree with Keith...

But I'm not sure about a pullback as yet. The naz just broke out of a sideways trend (well three days ago), but today was the first strong bullish candlestick showing that there could easily be more upside before a slight pullback.

I'm done calling tops. It was a costly mistake that I refuse to let happen again.

Ride the waves, even if it doesn't make sense and even if its a Bull that helps you out - the charts will tell when teh tides turn.

NewEquity said...

you been short for the past month does it feel to be a bear in a strong bull market

dbohntr said...

On a stock like AMR, it pulled back up to its previous trend line perfectly. looks like a re test of old support, but the over the top volume has me thinking otherwise. How do you read this chart with the volume mixed in?

ross said...

I think Safehaven runs the gamut with respect to dark and light perspectives, but that is beside the point. Any analysis must stand on its merits, or fall for a lack of them. Obviously I think Bob Hoye's observations have merit as does the following chart, which is most assuredly not bullish.

beanie11111 said...

Doug Kass out of ammo?

Aaron said...

I recently moved from Richmond to Orange County, CA. I can't say I miss the murder (my daughter was in the same class as one of the Harvey girls), but I do miss my Fan house. Damn, I hate hearing about Richmond, it hurts my heart...

AssetStrategists said...

Hey Tim!

I made a little coin as a Bear today!

Tuesday, April 24, 2007 12:55:47 PM PT:
BOT +x CME 100 MAY 07 530 PUT @10.50 PHLX, CME MARK 533.09

Wednesday, April 25, 2007 11:25:02 AM PT:
SOLD -x CME 100 MAY 07 530 PUT @13.30 PHLX, CME MARK 526.0598

Just to show that it is possible to follow TA and pull profit in a Bull market on a Bear play. Now if I'd bought Calls when I sold the Puts...

Happy Trading: Up, Down, and Sideways!

plunger said...

Schnitzer Steel (SCHN) - - man, can you imagine being the receptionist there and saying that name all day long? -

That is funny,

so is the pic, kinda of a perfect analogy for the the market and the bears, don't ya' think?

i agree, i was trying to better grasp the fundies for my long term $$, ira etc. As usual, the markets been roaring up and my IRA , mutuals(managed by so called pros?) ekeing out a 7-8% gain. majority of the money managers out there are morons. i'd like to take over those accounts eventually, so i gotta learn the fundaments for that reason mostly,

plunger said...

regarding your APA position,
words of caution, I'm not sure how long you been reading this blog, but let me give ya heads up about something i realized at substantial cost. I've been reading this blog for quite some time, over a year at least and Tim is a great technician, far better that I. He brings great insight into the blog, and alot of funny shit, which helps. Last year tho, I was able to play the mid-year correction, made a little coin, then, if you come here daily without an open mind , and I mean an OPEN MIND, people keep screaming , TOP, TOP, HERE COMES THE BEAR, SHORT ,SHORT, and it gets your bear goggles on so thick you cant really trade right. your wasting time and money waiting for the top, instead of trading with the market like we should. I got burned on alot of shorts, but worse, got out of some well researched longs too early that would have made me big coin[that hurt worse than bad shorts] had i stayed in. But my bear goggles were too thick, I had talked myself into what the market should do instead of observing what it was doing. I had to avoid the blog for a few months, get my head right, then come back. Your a Jesse Livermore fan, it's like he said"you can't be right or wrong, you can only agree with the market"

Don't get me wrong, I love this blog, I think Tims a really sharp guy and will help defend him against all the morons who come here and spout off without some sort of thought into their position, but just my two cents,,

Don't let the bear goggles get too thick , keep an open mind and it'll be easier to see the top/correction when it does come[and it is coming]

[I enjoyed the quid pro quo with ya and thought i owed you this insight. good luck,]

little too long of a post , sorry guys,

JakeGint said...

APA misses ... down 2.5% this morning...

Watch out for AAPL and its newest product:

the iBag.

plunger said...

nice play on the earnings call then jake, if it hold a break below $74 should do well,

plunger said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
dbohntr said...

that was the best comment I have heard from you yet.

Tim's XAU play was money in the bank.

NewEquity said...

Please bears keep dying by the charts that are screaming buy the breakout on all major indices.

plunger said...

dbohntr said...
that was the best comment I have heard from you yet.

which comment was that? I've made so many here lately.