Monday, April 16, 2007

And So It Goes....

The bears continue to get shot in the head, one by one. The comments section of this blog is a mix of insightful commentary (from both sides) and sophomoric crap from permabulls. Of course, if the market was in a freefall, there would be sophomoric crap from bears like me, so I guess it all evens out.

Many indices and ETFs made lifetime highs today. Not yearly highs. Lifetime highs. Never-before-seen, higher-than-the-bubble highs. Get it? Look at MDY, SPY, $MID, and many others. We're into unchartered bullish waters. The $INDU, while not yet at a lifetime high, is threatening to make the highest level seen in years.


The $OEX pushed above a formidable Fibonacci level today. There's a large opportunity for this to push higher, based on the next Fib level.


The Russell 2000 also pushed to a lifetime high today. It, like the $INDU, is just kissing the underside of the broken trendline.


I mentioned recently that FMT might be a good bullish play. That turned out to be true. The stock was up over 30% at one point today.


Energy continues to be strong, as I've suggested it might many times recently. Here's the OIH.


About a week ago, one of the folks in the comments section asked about ONT. I responded in comments that it looked great, and I repeated that in the next night's post. Although speculative, this stock is doing amazing things, and the volume backs it up.


Energy play Schlumberger (SLB) continues to be strong. I point it out here due to its size and especially strong performance.


I guess one might joke....."How does one make a small fortune being a bear?" Answer: "Start with a large fortune." Things look grimmer than ever for ursine types. Valuations don't matter. Common sense doesn't matter. All the bearish arguments you've heard don't matter. All that matters is that (a) a lot of people with (b) a lot of money (c) don't know what else to do with it. So we go up and up.

44 comments:

TOMTHETRADER said...

It looks like "sucker punch" time as the QQQQ is hitting resistance and the inflation numbers ....the most important of the year are out tomorrow....and everyone is turning bullish !!! But Strength begets strength as I have said here before and the Bull goes into his 5th year of driving Bears nuts !!!
Overvalued ? GS 8x all 7x vlo 8x ??? TECH 11x we are just starting on the last leg about 19% more by January.

TTT

Anonymous said...

i am buying puts and puts and puts..
i don't fear it...
i know it all will come back to daddy (me)

Anonymous said...

Tim,

You are so right about valuations and common sense don't matter. A 500 point down day don't matter. Housing collapse don't matter. Mortgage collapse don't matter. Hidden M3 money supply don't matter. I'm putting on my blinders...turning off the TV....not reading any financial news.....I'm just gonna trade the chart. I'm jumping on the bull and riding up and when he gets tired I'm jumping on the bear and ridin' him.

Joe

David said...

The more the bears throw in the towel, the more I'm selling into the rally and getting ready to go short.

Lauriston said...

Tim

"(a) a lot of people with (b) a lot of money (c) don't know what else to do with it."

You are right on that one! I posted on my blog about the Saudi billionaire buying a large stake in HSBC which has taken a large hit (largest among big banks) on the subprime mortgage issues, and maybe more mortgage issues may surface. Too much oil money and also money from Far East wealthy Chinese etc making its way into any market. Let's see how far we can go... there has to be an end to this, right? Maybe not...

Anonymous said...

"The more the bears throw in the towel, the more I'm selling into the rally and getting ready to go short."
I totally agree. Sold half of my positions today into the strength! :D Big E

Anonymous said...

when was the last time the market went up 11 out of 12 days and what the ** happened after the streak.

I can stay afloat for another 100 pts on the dow, after that I get a margin call.

Anonymous said...

all of my puts are under water today, what a succckk market.

Anonymous said...

OK, Tim is becoming one of my indicators these days! How? Well, I've noticed when at the point that everyone is bullish and looking at higher highs, Tim also can no longer hold his breath. Then, right at that moment, I know we have reached the very top of the top. Tim is now doubting his way, so I'm sensing when even the bears turn bull, I know we hit the very top. He emitted similar feeling when we hit the high 2-3 days before the Feb. correction. On top of that, I suggest people look at Money Flow that has reached the highest of its high, which I associate with VIX. So what happens when all these people buy and no one else to sell it to?

Come to think of it, one way to get rid of inflation is a huge market correction where people lose ALL of their money.

TradeItLikeItIs said...

This is a key key point:

For almost 6 years there has been an air of fear and pessimism in the markets. This will not last forever.

So I ask you this most important question: What happens when all this fear subsides? (and it will at some point)

What comes after fear? GREED

All the fear will be turned into euphoria and stock prices will begin soaring - that will be the end of the Bull Market.

That's how markets work - because that's how people work.

TradeItLikeItIs

Tim Knight said...

"Tim is now doubting his way, so I'm sensing when even the bears turn bull, I know we hit the very top. He emitted similar feeling when we hit the high 2-3 days before the Feb. correction."

Ummmm, bullsh*t.

3 days before the collapse I wrote http://tradertim.blogspot.com/2007/02/im-starting-to-like-this-market.html

Maybe you should re-read it and see how "bullish" I was. The title was "I'm Starting to Like This Market." I didn't write such a thing to say how much I liked its bullish ways.

TBA said...

We'll see whether ANY of the following matter soon enough...

VIX throws a hammer today and is almost 10% below its 10 period average

NYSE advance decline line 10 period average is approaching a peak

TRIN3 (0.72) approaching a bottom

Worden T2108 now at 77 percent

81 percent of SP500 stocks are above their ten period average

'Mean reversion' types can only wish for a strong gap opening...to do our 'work'

Leisa said...

I sold all of my longs (except for 2) into today's strength. One of them was CSIQ, which I found on my own research, paid 10.05 for last Wednesday. It closed up FOR THE DAY 24.54%, or 13.50. I sold it at 12.20 or so. Just an hour later, some non-descript, say-nothing 'news' report came out and the stock rocketed again--up another 1.30. Doesn't make any sense to me. Or perhaps I feel unworthy to have a stock go up so much in so few days.

Quote: George Santayana: "Stupid is note poetical."

There certainly is no poetry in this market.

Tim Knight said...

Quote: Forrest Gump: "Stupid is as stupid does."

beanie11111 said...

Why all the inbred fighting? lol

Buy alternative energy stocks! Gonna be bigger than internets of the late 90's.

JASO en fuego!

TSL en fuego!

SPWR en fuego!

FSLR en fuego!

ESLR en fuego!

ASTI en fuego!

Fuzz said...

En fuego el stinko. Seen any good videos lately?

Anonymous said...

Tim, weren't you supposed to delete the advertisers such as TTT. Please walk the talk! Thanks.

wincity said...

I, for one, thinks the madness is near its end. JASO, pumped repeatedly here, was up 40% in 3 days, on nothing. I've never seen anything madder than this. If this continues, the whole world would have turned insane.

By the way, it was downgraded today. About time. Could be the sign for the market as well. I downgrade the entire world market to super sell.

Anonymous said...

ttt just offered opinion and did not advertise this time

zeus111

Leisa said...

We will likely have another happy day in the markets. Toshi, this son is for you (and the rest of us!) Music please....

Artist: Lyrics
Song: Send in the Clowns Lyrics
Isn't it rich?
Are we a pair?
Me here at last on the ground,
You in mid-air.
Send in the clowns.

Isn't it bliss?
Don't you approve?
One who keeps tearing around,
One who can't move.
Where are the clowns?
Send in the clowns.

Just when I'd stopped opening doors,
Finally knowing the one that I wanted was yours,
Making my entrance again with my usual flair,
Sure of my lines,
No one is there.

Don't you love farce?
My fault I fear.
I thought that you'd want what I want.
Sorry, my dear.
But where are the clowns?
Quick, send in the clowns.
Don't bother, they're here.

Isn't it rich?
Isn't it queer,
Losing my timing this late
In my career?
And where are the clowns?
There ought to be clowns.
Well, maybe next year.

Anonymous said...

Leisa does'nt need any clowns...she is one ! Worst lyrics in history !! And yes, it is queer !

Anonymous said...

Hey folks there should be little doubt we are in a mainia(sp) the real key is how to determine its end. I have attached a copy of an email I recieved friom a Chinese friend on mainland China, that trades in the stock market, and is also proud of their apartment purchase, which they have owned about a year. When you read this remember the pricing is in RMB roughly 1/8 of dollar. The chinese also adopt English names, if they deal with foreigners.
THE EMAIL>>
My shares go up today, I am luck, my mood is full of shares, I don’t want to work.
My friends are all investing in shares. Ann's husband is rapturous very much for investing of shares.
My house has been increaseed in value, its price was RMB 570,000 when I bought, now its price is RMB 1,100,000, my decision of investment is very intelligent.

>>>>>Tulips anyone???

Tim Knight said...

"Tim, weren't you supposed to delete the advertisers such as TTT. Please walk the talk! Thanks."

He's not advertising. I have nothing against TTT as a poster. As long as a person isn't blatantly posting for a fee-based site, I'm fine with them.

Tim Knight said...

"And where are the clowns?
There ought to be clowns.
Well, maybe next year."

No need to wait, Leisa. We've got all the clowns we can handle.

JakeGint said...

Just please, no more freaking clown videos.

But if Charlie the Unicorn has a sequel... I'm all over it.

__________________

The secret word is "bougy." Translation: Dance in France.

_________________

(rolls eyes)

The SECOND secret word is "zaoek."

Translation: It's okay I gotta put two secret words in every time.

vtgiwcfw said...

Standard Wall Street Ploy - downgrade earnings - drop market few weeks before earnings - BUY shares on cheap - results come in ahead of lowered expectations - market rallies - shorts squeezed - new highs - SELL shares bought on cheap.

This stuff is not rocket science.

I would hate to be short if either INTC or YAHOO have anything positive to say - as the slightest positivity is now taken to ram this market higher.

But there could be a good short term short on the market tomorrow if they both miss - as the VIX expires tomorrow - so maybe someone wants to create little blip down tomorrow?

Otherwise we go up - did you see the FED offered 40Billion Open Market yesterday?? Can't fight that.

The market will not have any serious correction until (a) the Bears realize they were wrong (b) the Insiders and Central Banks decide there is too much greed - and need to take it down.

TradeItLIkeItIs

Pierce said...

Alan Greenspan: I've drawn the bears out of hibernation and directly into my web with my recession predictions, at $150 grand a pop nonetheless. My loyal apprentice, our time has finally come. Execute order 66.

Ben Bernanke: Yes my master.

Montage of bears being gunned down by PPT troopers in the background.

Anonymous said...

Since today is the last day for all the 401k catch up money to enter the market,,,,Could this be the top ?

Ken

Tim Knight said...

Pierce, that was definitely one of the funnier comments recently.

I see CBS is announcing the Dow at a lifetime high. At the moment, today's HIGH is in excess of the highest CLOSE. So I guess, with that tortured logic, there's some kind of news event.

I think a close above the previous higher close would be more noteworthy. And certainly seems altogether possible.

Market Speculator said...

tim,

just goes to show that this is the retail investor rally and not one that is supported largely by the institutional crowd.

nasdaq closed higher yesterday but in lower trade and nasdaq has been under the most accumulation the past 6 months. Shows you the leadership in this market.

best thing to do is not trade on opinion but what the market is giving us...for now we are in an uptrend...until it breaks

Anonymous said...

take that bear shorty, new highs galore across the board and time to buy calls with all dry gunpowder to leverage the coming upside in the next few weeks.

Tim Knight said...

"take that bear shorty"

....you sound like a six year old throwing a schoolyard taunt. Grow up.

TradeItLikeItIs said...

Tim - you're takin the heat today - and a few Anon posters are getting a bit cocky. Hmmm

Anyways I wanted to post this:

I think it would be easier to concentrate on picking bottoms rather than calling tops.

Here's why

(1) market is biased long - after all - shares are pieces of paper created to go up - not down
(2) tops don't come until the last buyers buy - and like a ponzi scheme - this can go on for longer than anyone thinks
(3) stocks can continue rising - even while showing bearish divergences

And this is important:
(4) bullish divergences are more reliable - because shorters ALWAYS have to cover - BUT Buyers don't have to Sell

Calling tops is a mugs game.
Calling bottoms is even a mugs game - but if one must make market calls - I think calling Bottoms is easier.

Following trends is better.

TradeitLikeItIs

Anonymous said...

I am speechless, I am dead. I didn't have stops, so this bear is dead.

Anonymous said...

It might be easiest to think about the market in terms of the the most successful stock market investor ever and who is usually #1,2, or 3 on the worlds weathiest individuals.WARREN BUFFETT. He started out buying his first stocks over 50 years ago with $11,000 of his own saved money.He is now worth about 55 billion. The Indu were at 600 when he started trading. He knew that over time ,that the the markets were destined to go up & up & up & up etc-etc.Pullbacks are for buying more. All humans are consumers and a few are inventors and creators.With that equation there never was any direction for the economy and their markets to go but up . That has'nt changed.1000 , 2000 , 3000,and on up now through 11 and 12 thousand ... it looks like it's ready again claim new territory.Who would you rather be like..Robert Prechter (Who ?)..or Warrwn Buffett ?

Market Speculator said...

how many warren buffets are out there?

Anonymous said...

None around here as far as I can tell !

George DeTellis Jr. said...

Tim, would you chart oil & gold for us?

Thanks,
George

Anonymous said...

Tim,
Chart more long positions so we can actually make money...lmao...

gary said...

In regards to China. Sure it is in a blowoff top. However the third stage blowoff phase typically lasts about 1- 1 1/2 years after the public gets into an asset class. Near as I can tell we are only about 1/2 - 1 year into the 3rd phase of the Chinese bubble. While the trend is strongly up might as well jump on for the ride. If you don't like the market get into gold or silver. Btw all intermediate tops have occured with the weekly charts being overbought and usually a divergence on money flows. We aren't at those kind of levels yet. Doesn't make sense to short yet. Final legs up in bull markets typically last about 6 months and average 34% from trough to peak. Its still to early to look for a top. Patience it will come. Watch the weekly charts after at least 4 months have passed.

Leisa said...

Toshi,

Some of your guests are just plain impolite. A clown? Moi? Sigh. The lyrics were so appropriate fitting in well with our nuanced theme of clowns (though no references to Frylock, pickles or even mono-kidneyed horses in Candyland).

Anonymous said...

maybe we'll get a 10 point downside on the dow tomorrow before it goes to 13000 by end of april and 15000 by end of the year.
maybe not!!!!!

StockRake said...

Sold ONT today. Will buy it back on pullbacks!

Sold ONT

George DeTellis Jr. said...

Tim,

Would you chart oil & gold for us?

Thanks,
George