Tuesday, April 03, 2007

Bearish Hopes Battered

I'm not even waiting for the end of the trading day to do this post.

Now that the indexes have sliced through the highs of March 26, bearish hopes for a softer market are - for the umpteenth time - destroyed. At this point, only surprisingly weak Q1 earnings........or a totally unexpected world event....is going to slow this market down.

From a charting perspective, the market is in full-blown bull mode, with the only resistance being that major support line that was decisively broken in late February. The market certainly still has more room on the upside.

Since I'm weary of showing potentially bearish charts that get swept up in this bull mania, I'm going to switch hats and offer a few bullish ideas. Dril Quip (DRQ):

Greif.....just look at that volume surge.... (GEF):

Health Net (HNT):

Holix (HOLX):

Jacobs (JEC):

Schlumberger (SLB):

Questar (STR):

I'm sure the naysayers that hang out in the comments section are delighted at the misery of the bears (and, more specifically, me!) Well, that's the market for ya. 99 times out of 100, it belongs to the bulls. Days like February 27 come along only once in a blue moon.

I hope some of you find some good fodder in the charts above.


Anonymous said...

TOMTHETRADER, will be here in the afternoon for his daily advertisement. I bet he will not see this or any of the comments in the previous post. He just posts his ad and mentions 1 line about Tim's book. I doubt if he has bought Tim's book.

As usual-

Jim Cramer

Leisa said...


I think that you need a clown hug to cheer you up. (g)

I capitulated and dumped my QID--there will be time for another entry point.

Ravi said...

Well, Check this market out..its even turning people like Tim to post bullish charts. Is that a contrarian indicator?

Just why is the world so bullish Tim? And why a Feb 27 then - when people sold like no tomorrow. That was definitely not profit booking!


Tim Knight said...

"I think that you need a clown hug to cheer you up.

No, Leisa. I need the Pillow Mercy Team. Just remember to at least make it an exciting experience for me by speaking eloquently with precise diction and syntactical accuracy.

wattson7 said...

You have only stopped of of AYI, AZO,DAI,BEN and MLM. Are you giving up on the rest?

Tim Knight said...

"You have only stopped of of AYI, AZO,DAI,BEN and MLM. Are you giving up on the rest?"

No. A stop is a stop. It's not like, "Oh, a few have been stopped out. Guess I'll close out the other 30 positions at the market immediately."

Each chart has its own stop, and it stays put.

Anonymous said...

Hi Tim,

Do you have a re-entry point to get short the indices again? Or do you expect to see new highs?


John said...

Tim, I think as longer-term bears, we had to expect a strong relief rally from the possible resolution of the Iran situation.

I would guess that the market will putter around here up until April earnings, which I imagine will begin to bring us back lower again, albeit more slowly and controlled this time.


Tim Knight said...

"Do you have a re-entry point to get short the indices again? Or do you expect to see new highs?"

Three possibilities.....

(a) meeting the trendline and then move away

(b) push to the former high for a double top

(c) worst possibility - - push past prior high and onward to God-knows-how high

We have to take it a day at a time. Bottom line: set your stops and leave them alone. Period.

wattson7 said...

Tim, giving what you know now, would you still place these puts remaining or wait? I was just going to start buying the ones remaining.

Anonymous said...

Strong resistance on SPX at 1440...Don't throw in the towel just yet....

JakeGint said...

I'm a bit confused... I thought we had agreed we'd get one more leg up before the kaboom? That's the gist I got, at least. Which makes today's action not so surprising.

Don't give up all hope, Tim... I think we're choppy from here on out...

-- To "Jim Cramer" about Tom the Hacker... nice call.


No advertising and for you Jim Cramer (Dickhead) Tim is a great member of the profession and if he wanted my bogspot not on his comments he would say so...Idiots try to ruin it for everyone...shouldn't have paid any attention to the dillrod but ...anyway I mentioned in comments yesterday that we were going to go off today and start a run and it worked out ...we hit resistance and I actually bought some puts at 12530.00 DIA as we were really short term extended. I also had my members sell the QLD holding and all the 80 contracts of QQQQ m May and June Calls along with alot of other profitable stocks to get us back to 100% invested after being overexposed. The seasonals and intermediate strength should push us up another 850 points before Memorial day but the earnings barrage will provide a buying opportiunity maybe as early as tomorrow but more like Monday and Tuesday of next week. The book is tremendous and i have lost a ton of money in this market and Tim is the only one with the NADS to show his book and tell the TRUTH all the time. The net is full of losers like anonymous Jim Cramer but when you find a great place like Tim's site you hope that people will learn from it and get better from it. I have learned alot from Tim as has everyone else and if you want to come to my blog site and join great ...if not ...try to keep it in perspective..Tim is the ultimate of professionals...and the BOOK IS AMAZING !!!!


Anonymous said...

great day to be a bull and fully margined on the long side......lmfao at you shortys......

Cramerica follower skee-DaD

Tim Knight said...

I haven't given up hope. Just scaling back and trying to preserve cash. It's a fierce battle, and the bulls still have almost all the ammunition.

It was almost worth it, with TomTheTrader actually using the word 'dickhead.'

Anyway. Tomorrow's another day.

Anonymous said...

Wow- what a morbid bunch we are...I lost a ton today too. Some stops were hit, others were 'moved' foolishly!

The bulls have Ben at the printing press. We have the reality of an on-coming recession. We will win out over the long term. But in the long-term we will all be dead and broke.

Nice post Cramer. I fell over laughing.


kolabalabo said...

This 1% move up was on average volume. Not very impressive. What do you think?

wattson7 said...

Com'mon Tim i bought your book and am a big supporter of your's i even signed up on prophet. And i am a fellow brother. Although the clown's were a bit much. but who hits a 100%

I asked:
Tim, giving what you know now, would you still place these puts (charts you posted) remaining or wait? I was just going to start buying the ones remaining.

Anonymous said...

i lost money too as a bear today, but i will be back again. like i said in previous post, when the drop comes, it will be BIG and everyone will be licking your ass tim like tomthetrader likes to do everyday. our day will come bears! don't give up yet... meanwhile look out for new short setups they will be better than those of end feb!

Tim Knight said...

"Tim, giving what you know now, would you still place these puts (charts you posted) remaining or wait? I was just going to start buying the ones remaining."

Wattson7.......I'm in wait and see mode. I want to see what kind of follow through we get tomorrow on today's surprising move higher.

Now that the late March highs have been bested, the new thing to wait is the February highs to see if we do a double top or if the bulls slit our throats.

theriteway2000 said...

Um time how are those GS puts doing? Oh thats right..your puts never expire.

Anyway, wrong again Tim. Maybe you will get a clue one day stop trying to fight the current.

The Iran situation is all hype and hot air. So is the subprime and the so called housing bubble.

What has to be understood is that stocks (and the market as a whole) tend to go up in the absence of any compelling reason to sell them.

wattson7 said...

Thanks Tim, hang in there. Keep us posted when you are ready. And as for the post st 2:52PM. He is an idiot...that statement was just plain stupid.

Dennis said...

Well, I must admit that today's surprisingly good housing data take something away from my bearish arguments. Right now, the bulls definitely have the momentum. Will the real estate market eventually drag the economy into a recession? Only time will time.

stockshaker said...

whoa. today was a brutal day. But why is everyone freaking out? The top in March is being tested, but it hasn't been broken (not on the Naz or the SPX).

And volume just average. If things are to go bullish, we should see volume pick up.

And also, on the intraday charts, things are overbought. Sure there is concern, but not enough to start throwing in towels.

Bearish corrections are like that. Fools a lot of people. Thats why bullish moves are easier to play, because things are pretty much laid out nicely.

requiem said...


Don't forget that the February housing numbers are "pending" sales, and happened just before the subprime fun. If those loans don't get funded, that will add to the already-likely downward revision. March/April numbers should be more telling.

Leisa said...

I wonder how many of those pending sales are "nixed" because the lender can no longer get their draws on their warehouse line of credit....

Let's see....where to look for silver linings:

1. In the business cycle don't commodities peak after the stock market? Aren't commodities peaking now?

2. Systemic risk is a threat and not quantifiable under current methods (and deployed by burgeoning masses of cowboys (HF's))(so says the paper that I'm reading called Systemic Risk and Hedge funds by Chan, Getmanksy, Haas and Lo, 08.01.05)

3. CDO's--the tip of the iceberg hasn't been uncovered on this stuff yet. Don't believe for a minute that it isn't sprinkled like nuclear dust in the holdings of pension plans, bond funds, corporate balance sheets for people who need interest spreads like insurance companies. Let's wait for the mark to market losses to show up and the loan loss reserves to get funded.

Toshi, the Pillow of Mercy program will always be there as a support for you and others in their time of need. However, the bulls may need it sooner than you.

I'm still waiting for the yawning jaws of death--sounds so much more dangerous and sexy than broadening top/megaphone.
For the record...I had to enter the $#%!#$% validation a second time, and this is my first post--trying to build some empiricism in this blogger quirk.

Anonymous said...

TOMTHETRADER, didn't I correctly predict that you will be here in the afternoon with your usual non-sense.

You have no right to predict the market. The only person who can is me 'Jim Cramer'. Boo-fucking-yah!!!!

On Real Estate bubble:
Real estate and subprime bubble is a MYTH. You keep mentioning this bubble and it will keep proving you wrong. If you believe there is a real estate bubble just shut up and claim victory when it does explode rather than keep mentioning about the bubble day-in and day-out

As usual

Jim Cramer

Anonymous said...

How much have you lost betting against the market you perma-bear. You try to outsmart the market and deserve to get your you know what handed to you.

bull rider

Tim Knight said...

"Um time how are those GS puts doing? Oh thats right..your puts never expire. "

My GS puts are only a little above where I bought them. Thanks for asking. (My name is spelled Tim, by the way, not 'time').

As for my puts not expiring - - I've tried to explain this - - I buy them relatively far-out, and if need be, I'll roll them over.

Hope you're enjoying getting your yuks out.

Tim Knight said...

Bulls are a disgusting lot, but days like this bring out the worst in them. Yeeccch. Hearing all this drivel is worse than the day itself.

Atlas said...

I have never posted before but I figure better late than never. Leisha, you are absolutely correct, the real estate # totday did not account for cancelations and therefore is far from being a good representation of what to expect on 4/25 when the real # comes out. Today's # has a had a 46% correlation to the actual exsisting home sales # over the past two years.

To Cramer, you wear your ignorance on you sleeve I see. Vacancy rates in the US are at all time highs while tighter credit standards will keep about 15% of potential home buyers out of the market. If you think this will not affect home prices you are nuts. Savings rates have been negative the past few years because people have been relying the ATM called home equity. That well is dry. Also a large portion of job growth in the last few years has been due to the mortgage and building industries. I know of 4 people in the mortgage industry that lost their jobs in the last week. All of this will come to light and I hope to have a porfolio of puts when it does. Now pull yourself up by the bootstraps Tim and stop listening to mouth breathers like good old Cramer. Timing is tuff and your time is coming.

Tom2oc said...


Nice to see some bullish charts, thanks. I had JEC and HOLX on my watchlist for days. If, as you say, the market belongs for bulls 99 times out of 100, shouldn't you side with the bulls when the market is going up?

Remember that cup-handles thesis I brought the attention 2 weeks ago? It's still hanging on nicely after 33 days now.

Sorry for those stops by the way.


Leisa said...

Bull Rider: Actually, I'm not a perma-bear, I just dislike smugness of any sort, and I find that the bull posters here seem to have that in spades. Now the bearish guys--oh they are just the darlingest (I'm from the South, you see)lot of adorable bear devils there ever was (were?).

I would no sooner tell you how much I've made or lost any more than I would tell you how much money I made a year, my bank account balance, or how much anything thing that I own costs. It's not polite conversation.
So much for empiricism--I entered the first %$#!@#%$ verification exactly right and now this is number 2 try)

MIsstrade said...

usdjpy is back to leading us along with the Emerging Market's. Good write up today Tim, it is what it is, bearish longer term, but the market is telling us we are going higher for now. Can't fight the tape, enjoy the ride up!! Good bullish charts out there today!! Follow the yellow brick road. NZDUSD offeirng some good short juice again.

wattson7 said...

Tim, do have a email address i want to send you something. It's a chart that will confirm a timing issue about what is happening...put/call and what the BOYS are up to..

Anonymous said...

atlas, first of it is Leisa and not Leisha.

The last thing you want to do is buy puts on anything real estate. The big boys will eat you alive. Infact, seeing all this bullshit about real estate and sub-prime non-sense, I am going to add more to my home builder positions. Remember logic works only 0.001% in stocks. Instead of buying homebuilder puts, donate that money to some charity.

And finally we have another genius tom2oc here. This is interesting, he has a graph which has the market either going up or down, too bad he does not one more line in that same graph to indicate a flat market. That way he can claim victory every second instead of every evening. Stop this non-sense of predicting the markets.

Any yes, you guessed it right

As always-

Jim Cramer

Atlas said...

Sorry Leisa.

I do not plan on buying puts in the homebuilders, I only buy puts on indexes, I should have been more clear.

bondi beach said...

What an absolute corker of a day! I must say with the fundamentals so incredibly cheap and with this bull market continuing to power higher, I'm at a loss to understand why anyone would want to be short anything right now. Crazy to try and make money on counter trends. Good day mates.


Anonymous said...

The smart money is riding on a push up to Dow 13000 by the end of the month. Come on tim, grab some long index options with me and lets make some fast money together.

Booyah Long 4x margined

Anonymous said...

NTRI - the most loved stock around here is up big today.

JakeGint said...

Don't tell me all is rosy in the world when UPS -- yes, United Parcel Service -- the best damn transportation company extant -- is wheezing along like an old lady on a ventilator.

Transports lead, and UPS leads transports... something is awry.

(the code word is... "wsdnlo" now -- let's see if it works the FIRST time...)

(second try, using code word "xekdfig"... Tim, fix this thing!)

Anonymous said...

I am 500% long ES. This puppy is going to go nothing but up! Com'on Tim, get on the party train before it's too late.

Anonymous said...

My buddies are all margined on the futures and we made bank today TimTrader. Our total gains were over 24500 dollars. Why short a bull uptrending market? lmfaoc.

long clown

Anonymous said...

The problem with being a permabear is that drops happen suddenly and dramatically. So to catch em, you always have to be short.

In the meantime puts expire, shorts go higher, bears bleed to death waiting.

Anonymous said...

come on guys, what is going on, it seems like the last drop is totally forgotton.... I disagree, dont let days like today fool you. Its all psychological, a day like this makes you think dow 13000, dow 14000. Every market around the world is making new highs. IT seems unreal. There will be another big drop, most likely steeper than the last one on the 27th that will have every bull surprised. Dont let these days fool you.

Anonymous said...

Dont let these days fool you.

9:22 PM

They aren't fooling us. They are fooling with our minds and our trading accounts.

Anonymous said...


Thanks for sharing your wisdom. I learnt this the hard way during the last july's rally.

Anonymous said...

so if we see new highs than what???

How high can these markets go before reality sets in. The shanghai is on a tear up again tonight. Mexico, Brazil etc are all at record highs and seem to only go one way ...UP. Eventually these markets will pullback. When they do stand clear, looking for a 30% drop.

Anonymous said...

yes reality should set in soon, and the reality is US stocks are WAY undervalued, even at current levels. Have no clue about international stocks. Hopefully the dow goes to 14000 soon and nasdaq to 3000 soon.

zeus111 said...

I know that Tim is doing a lot of work with trendlines and the violation of them. What I want to do is post a page from Edwards and Magee, technical analysis of stock trends, that defines which trendlines are shortable and which ones are not. I have found that very usefull and I would like to repost it. http://10sigmaevent.blogspot.com/2006/12/preparatory-signals-for-short-sales.html

Tim one thing I have to say, it is not to late for you. You can still do it and come over to the bullish part of the island (the fun part of the island).

zeus111 said...

Also i need a stock that will double in one week for the cnbc million dollar challenge. Any ideas anyone?

Humble1 said...

hmmmm.......might be that now is the time to short this for s short term hedge. There are many stocks out there that are setting up nicely and should respond to any new market weakness after this current rally fizzles soon.

Anonymous said...

The bank went bust...hopefully i can afford a pack of ramen noodles after they pay for postage to send out the check.

Anonymous said...

WTF MORE F$UCKI$ GREEN. IT DOESNT STOP. new highs should be here friday if the job report is in line which of course it will be, buy now and get ready for dow 12800

Leisa said...

Atlas..no apologies needed...I just figured you had been drinking and maybe slurring your words! Hey at least you didn't say that I weirded you out--you can mispell my name all you want!

Anonymous said...

tom2oc is someone who always rears their head everytime the market rallies and then when it tanks they disappear into a hole. tom2oc is loser, seen that person on most blogs just like tomthetrader, maybe same person

Tim Knight said...

If you folks want to see a REALLY raucous comments section, check out www.iamfacingforeclosure.com any day of the week.

Anyway, as you can see, I've once again opened up to anonymous posters. I figure if MDE and the like are going to bash me, might as well take all comers.

Anonymous said...


Man! good call. And I bet even this guy does not read either your comment or mine. He just comes here says some bullshit how he predicted the market would either go up or down or flat.


As usual -

Jim Cramer

Anonymous said...

Hehe Another nice uptick on the indices sucker. It must feel great to be a bear in a bull rodeo ring.
James Cramer Sr.

Anonymous said...

woohoo!!! NTRI the most loved stock around here is up a buck today

Anonymous said...

just a boring day, not enough liquidity today to push the markets higher. They yen carry trade is helping the markets higher as well. What a Fu#ked up market this is.

Anonymous said...



Wait till the next drop occurs, this one will be longer than the last. Emerging markets havent even seen a correction yet after going straight up since last June. There is a 30-40% correction coming for the emerging markets. These markets continue to push higher, it cannot go on forever guys.

TradeItLikeItIs said...


Yes the market is biased long for all assets due to the printing of money - but this will come to an end soon - probably this year.

I see many good short possiblities coming up this year.

We have reached the point where it will be unhealthy for the economy to have all assets - oil gold bonds stocks DOW Uranium NIKKEI HANG SENG Commercial Real Estate etc - all going up all at once.
In fact I believe FEB 27 was the warning shot of what may come if this does not stop.

My concern is though that people are shorting the wrong things - the S&P is 25% undervalued by many models - this should not be shorted IMO - it would fall the least.

Better to wait and see what breaks - will it be commodities?bonds? stocks? emerging markets? debt?

Remember its fine to have a bubble rally in 'paper' like tech stocks in the late 1990's - but a bubble in resources is not fine - and this can end badly. I will be there to profit from the coming decline.

Until then stay long until the signs are clear - and they will be clear - like they were with Feb 27.

Be Bearish when the crowd realizes the party's over and all they can do is sell. Don't call tops.

Other wise be Bullish - as its wise to remember:


Anonymous said...


do you have a website or blog? those are words of wisdom and I would love to follow up on your thoughts and trading process!! thanks