Thursday, April 19, 2007

Just. Plain. Weird.

Well, we bears started off with every advantage this morning. The Nikkei had fallen hundreds of points. China had gotten clobbered. The currency situation looked eerily similar to what caused the February 27th mini-crash. The GLOBEX was way down. And the market opened down, soon more than 60 points off the Dow.

And then what happened? Of course. The bulls came to the rescue. Incredibly, inexplicably, disgustingly, the market shook off the barrel-full of bad news and actually went into the green for the 700th day in a row. Un-{Nixonian expletive deleted} believable.


The most important "index" to me is my own portfolio, and I was glad to see that it actually moved reasonably higher today. Someone was asking in the comments section why I'm so hung up on the Dow. Two reasons. First, it's the most widely recognized and used index by the public. And second, I deliberately am seeking out the strongest index (currently, at least). If I'm bearish, I want to be in tune with the least bearish of the major indexes to keep an eye on its strength.


Perennial favorite $RUT (the Russell 2000) fell down today. It's interesting to see the candlesticks here. Three down days in a row, each one a little more strongly down than the prior one.


The S&P 500 was also down just a touch today. I see in after-hours trading that Google (GOOG) blew away its estimates (I have no position in GOOG) and it is up something like $13 per share. Obviously it will be interesting to see what the stock does in "real life" tomorrow. But the company's ability to print money is clearly undaunted.


My puts in $XAU are going great. The lower lows/lower highs is as plain on the nose on your face.


The NZD/USD has got to fall in order for us to see real weakness. It looks ready to turn, based on what I've marked here.


I haven't done this in a while, but below are my current positions. All of them are bearish. The bold ones are puts, and the regular ones are shorts.


Lastly, I haven't provided a video in a while. One of my favorite groups ever, Devo, did this video back in the early 80s (my own personal musical nirvana). With the crappy time we bears have had over the past two months, I thought it was time to "take a break".......

53 comments:

wshhmm德州牌手 said...

Market is crazy today.

After hour, google report "good" earning, but only up a few bucks. I don't feel good for it.

BOOMER said...

Are we not just "climbing the wall of worry?" Isn't that the healthiest kind of growth...even if it seems relentless?

Anonymous said...

Yesterdays purchase of SDS looked real good on the open this morning. Unfortunatly it withered away as day went on and only ended up +.10 Anyhow I still maintain that we are in the process of making a top right here. The market has opened lower the last couple of days and quickly rebounded without much to show for it while the Naz and S&P's can't seem to follow through. Seems like the Bulls are throwing a lot of money into the markets but, at the end of the day don't have much to show for their effort.

Still Looks Like A Top To Me !!

Ken

Leisa said...

Toshi

I may not like but I always appreciate seeing these clips.

Thanks for posting your list again.

It will be interesting to see what happens in the Asian markets tonight with our weak Philly news.

Anonymous said...

Dear DOW. you have vandalized my heart, raped my soul and torched my conscience

Deric O. Cadora said...

I don't think it's so amazing that the market reversed higher today. Frustrating, yes, but not amazing. There are big players who have a vested interest in keeping the markets stable at options expiration time. Fading sudden movements a day or two ahead of expiration has been a near sure-bet in recent years.

Still LOTS of big earnings to come next week: AMZN, TXN, AAPL, BRCM, CFC, KLAC, NEM, SNDK, etc. Let's see how things hold up.

b.healed said...

when you decided to step back and reevaluate information and do some searches....did you use the searches on prophet.net? or do you use other searches as well?
thanx for your help, love your blog...keep it going.

sam said...

Tim

Like I said yesterday, this market will not go down, not even a pull back. Since now all the bluechip had new high, bug player will start to pump those garbage stock like mot amd. watch!!

EAT THE BEARS said...

Hum...

The Bears are pretty quiet tonight - not many postings... I guess they finally realized they've been wrong...

Can't have this!

Bulls need to organize a Pullback now to create the bears 'double top mantra'

Then we go higher.

burp!

EAT THE BEARS

Anonymous said...

Tim,

How does one put on the USD/NZD currency play. Is there an index that you can buy, or short, that is the play between the two of these. If so, what is the symbol. Thank you in advance. Your blog is awesome, and I think the Bulls are drawing up just enough rope to hang themselves. Then I will be LMAO, and EKBITNFBS (enjoying kicking the bulls in the N*tz for being Stupid)

sam said...

tomorrow we will have a small rally to keep kill bear or we will have a flet market. Pullback? going down? no way!!!

sam said...

guys, this is the last stage of the bull market, we usually don't get pull back. (today is not count as a pullback)

Anonymous said...

cat reports tomorrow, it should be up like 4 bucks, nothing will stop this market, nothingggggggggg...


Market has rallied 14 out of 15 days. When does it finally give up and give back a few hundred points. I fint it nearly impossible to trade at these historical highs.

Anonymous said...

Nice porfolio Tim, for the long side that is. You own the strongest groups with the highest earnings growth and the lowest pe's.

Good luck!!!

DOW 100,000

Anonymous said...

Good evening sir,
I metioned Amgn last friday, closed it today when it was up over $3 for the day. Just got into NUE. Earnings were out today, stock is up on good volume What do you think?
Also I am trading MRO to the upside, I was disappointed to find you on the other side. I do not like trading against the Professor.
Can you tell me what you see in MRO that give you a Bearish veiw. Its Oil, low PE,hitting the 30dayMA, MACD and Stochasitics are down, Only 1% insider trading, my position is not that big but it is the $90 strike price w/ a stop on the stock at $97.85
Could you please share you insight as I am sure I may have overlooked a lot. I have traded down with you several times quit sucessfully and like being on the same side of the trade as you.
Thanks for your feedback
K in Sac

Anonymous said...

You are going to be counting up some serious coin when you buy to cover that portfolio in late summer.

Anonymous said...

tim,
ouchy. F U Lil' bear. You have been wrong for years yet claim victory for other bull markets. yeah right like we believe that you were once bullish. haha yea oh-k. Screw off and write a few more ebooks to pay your light bills.

b.healed said...

*singing* "I'm proud to be a bearican" things are still set up to drop. doesn't matter what this craziness of the market is. have fun!

Anonymous said...

this is the best and 100% working signal. the market will fall because I am closing my short positions.

JakeGint said...

I got another Devo tune....

"You got to Whip it! Whip it Good!"

(sorry I was jest a chile when this came out so if my memory fails...)

____________________

The secret word is "Metjawoi"

Translation: "Oy vey, Spielberg doesn't like the Yankees??"

______________

PS-- Tim-- Tom2Oc says he's not revisiting because you never answered his query on his chart theory -- which seem to be working to his anticipated ends, btw-- after five or six requests.

Now this is your place and you run it as you wish, no question. And granted, there are some humps here who tend to drive people out, but perhaps it benefits the site to keep the intelligent folks around, even if they be contrary?

Just a suggestion, as you are doing a great job in any case. And Tom says "good luck," (on my comment section) and I think he's being sincere.

Anonymous said...

come on, the dow is going for another record....


anyone with past statistics, I know some of you can help, but how long is the longest the dow went in past history breaking out to record highs before it fell hard enough to the point where it took years to get back to its old high?

gary said...

Sam is right folks. We are in the final blowoff phase of this bull market. The COT report just gave one of the strongest long signals ever. Do you really expect this market to trade rationally? Is it any wonder that the market just keeps getting more and more overbought? My guess is we get a pullback next week. Now the question is do you use the opportunity to get long or do you use to pullback to confirm your bearish stance. Guarantee there will come a time to go short and huge money will be made but it's not that time yet. The need to be right is costing you money. Jesse Livermore said there is no bull side and no bear side there is only the right side.

David said...

Hey Tim - Which puts do you own? Short time horizon/long - without identifying exactly which ones (unless you want to), what is your basic put philosophy in terms of time horizon/which puts to buy?

JakeGint said...

Speaking of Jesse Livermore... the guy with the funny sign in (wshmmm + Chinese characters?) has the greatest name for a blog... "Trade as Jesse Livermore"

Farkin' awesome for a guy whose English is a second language.

_______________

Gary -- where can we get access to the COT report? Until this week, I thought it was only for gold and silver traders... (stupid, I know)

Anonymous said...

jake

what is the url for the "Trade as J Livermore" blog? thanks

gary said...

www.cftc.gov. Look at the large and e-mini contract for the S&P futures, Chicago Mercantile exchange

Anonymous said...

Good Luck with your shorts, this is a bull market making stir fried shorty's evernight.

sincerely,
ben dover

Peter Pants said...

Tim, wrong again. Markets up; your puts are down. Maybe you should let us know when you are ready to stop losing money.

Anyway your blog is a good laugh. rofl Its funny how your circled those headlines cause your probably very frustrated and angry that the markets wont go down in spite of that so called bad news. It must suck being wrong all the time.

Dotcom-Guru said...

Tim your a noob. Your blog makes a great contarian indicator. Your book, btw, makes a great doorstop or paper weight.

american bull eats shorts said...

if you can't profit from the blog (actually you'll lose all your money from this blog unless you fade Tim), why would you read a book from the same guy? Come here and do exactly the opposite and you make money everyday! Including when market tanks, cuz tim is long when markets crash. rotflmao!! yes!! take that shortie. i know you say "lol" 30yrs ago, but in prevailing time you learn nothing about charts? your charts are pretty but no profits lol lol lol. yur portfolio is red red red today, how u like it shortie?

Tim Knight said...

As pointless (and hostile) as the above three comments are, I'm just going to leave them, and leave anonymous posters on. I'll let these (non-registered) commenters' words speak for themselves and let those who read them be the objective judge.

Anonymous said...

Dow 12921 Gold almost $700

Xom 79.15

What am I missing here?


dead bear

Anonymous said...

The problem with Tim is he's mastered the skill of drawing bearish looking charts, and making almost any chart fit his bearish outlook, but he's not much good as a trader - shorting very strong stocks like GS AAPL etc because the chart looks extended shows this faulty trading mentality, if he changed camps he might actually make a lot of money

niko said...

TK,

Do as you wish, but all the hostility without contribution doesn't add to your blog. I know you must be busy, but by moderating the comments a bit, we can learn more. I like contradiction, but it's got to be constructive and enlightening. "Tim is a putz" doesn't really help much.

All that anger is going to do is run your blog off the web... Those of us who aren't 12 years old would be sad.

Tim Knight said...

I'm going to make a compromise.

I've turned verification words OFF. A lot of people have expressed frustration over those.

But I'm turning moderation ON. Because, niko is right, "Tim is a putz" may be true, but it adds nothing to this blog.

Anonymous said...

come on lets be reasonable here, can the market continue this run. Im looking to go long DXD at the close today but actually worried about waking up monday morning and seeing the futures up another 50 points. Today will be 15 for 16. If I WERE A BULL I would certainly be taking profit sooner than later. This market is good for at least a 1-2% sell off without questions.

I would go long on a dip below 12500. I still think the DOW dips below 12k sometime in 2007, the last sell off was too quick.

gary said...

The above posts make a very good point. We are building quite a head of bullish steam so that when this market does turn and go down these very same people will not be able to check their bullishness and will end up riding their winnings all the way back down. We are building to a spectacular top in this bull. Bears just be patient. It's not time to short yet. There is no call for being a permabear or permabull for that matter. The market goes both ways. Ride the ups and the downs. Just stay on the right side.

Lauriston said...

Tim

We are due for a pullback, just have to wait for it to come. This time around I will not let another bull rally pass me by, I will get some long positions with usual stops etc. I am quickly learning that this bull does not respect anything, just moves up regardless of fundamentals or technicals (at least it looks that way). One can still make bearish trades as I did today, but they are fewer and smaller than the bullish ones. Now that many people are turning bullish or bears are turning semi-bullish maybe this is the top! Good luck.

Anonymous said...

Tim,
MRO is down, w/earnings on the first are you going to hold through earnings? if so, where is your stop? If not what is your exit plan? I can bearly say this, but I can not bear to lose even when the market moves against me.
Thanks

Bearintraining

Anonymous said...

I love trading from the short side, and bear market action would be wonderful for my mood and my trading capital, but I don't think the case can be made yet. Confirmed highs in all the indicies, unrelentingly bullish market breadth, plenty of sector leadership, strong breakout charts, and unprecedentedly high levels of skepticism. I simply can't find any evidence of an impending market top. Believe me, I'm looking!

Perhaps another quick drop in May to cool the short term excesses and more new highs by summer. Jeff

Anonymous said...

it just doesnt stop, intraday highs coming, 13,000 is possible last week.

I was long QLD and DDM last week and sold them, WTF was I thinking, I hold so many shorts and bearish ETFS, this day is costing me alot.

How long can the dow keep making new highs. Its going to close out 15 for 16, this seems unreal, but its happening.

How come when the DOW is dropping like a rock you see so many people worrying when in reality over the long term its been straight up, I will never understand that. Look at the markets today, its seems that nothing can stop them. That pullback on the 27th is just a blip on your charts now. Like nothing ever happened. With all these up day how quick do you think it can get to 12500 again, 11k is out of question, only way we ever go back to 11k is if GDP sinks into the 0-1% range which WILL NOT HAPPEN BECAUSE OF THE FED. They will cut rates to sustain growth only to watch the dollar fall to earth. I dont comprehend this market anymore. As my little account stays red all I think about is all the big guys on wallstreet going out to party this weekend, driving cars in the 6 figures and going home to their mansions. Life is good for them, seems nothing can stop something so good.

Bears, it seems were alone in this market, nothing looks like it will go our way anytime soon, the 27th of FEB brought some hope, but that hope as now faded.

Good luck bears. Were going to need it in 2007.

Anonymous said...

UNREALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL'


Wait for the next correction, I hope its 1000 dow points in a single day. The greed on wallstreet and throughout the world IS PATHETIC, if any bull comes crying to this forum the day we enter a huge correction/bear market I will laugh at you and say you pathetic fool you had thousands of opportunities to sell at the top, you should have taken them all.



^MERV MerVal 2,215.87 3:19PM ET Up 15.60 (0.71%) Components, Chart, More
^BVSP Bovespa 49,307.49 3:19PM ET Up 545.36 (1.12%) Chart, More
^GSPTSE S&P TSX Composite 13,636.07 3:04PM ET Up 61.37 (0.45%) Components, Chart, More
^MXX IPC 29,828.60 2:58PM ET Up 214.55 (0.72%) Components, Chart, More
^GSPC 500 Index 1,481.23 3:19PM ET Up 10.50 (0.71%) C

Anonymous said...

Is this blow out top?

what is definition of blow out top?

Anonymous said...

Tim,

It Looks like MDE was right and you will have to follow through on your word to shut this puppy down if we get that 9% gain this quarter. Have a great evening.

James(long time reader)

Anonymous said...

SORRY FOR THE LANGUAGE

BUT THIS FUCKING MARKET IS INSANE.....

ANYONE TRADING THIS MARKET HAS TO ADMIT THAT THEY HAVE NEVER EVER EVER EVER SEEN A MARKET ACT SO IRRATIONAL.
This is worse than 1999-2000. Its too fucking irrational its pathetic, I mean come on how many days can these markets rally before common sense sets in.

Anonymous said...

If you believe in the cup and handle pattern the QQQQ's could hit $50 in the next 2-3 months!

Anonymous said...

Blow out top? See Nasdaq 1999-2000. This ain't that!

Anonymous said...

1:01 pm they may touch 50 but I think a move back to 43 is coming before such a move happens.

Wolfie said...

Tim, i feel your pain. This is simply amazing- The Dow is outperforming all other indices. Additionally, Dow is down only 1 day in April.

The housing market and the economy are sick, inflation above Fed targets and we keep rolling on- urgh!!!

Anonymous said...

Hey Tim, what do you mean bad news? In this market so far bad news has been bullish, and so has good news. It is certainly insane. what the market may try to do is take out both sides. First break the bears then crush the bulls in a free fall. I am as bearish as you are, may be more so, but this thing is exasperating

plunger said...

5th wave rally, thats why i beleive it seems so insane. all the late partiers showing up, thats usually the last stage, we'll se a major correction/bear at the latest mid this year, i could be off a few months here or there,(wave theory is a bitch) but you'll know the b wave when after the first drop you cant make the new high, but til then its anybody's game.

plunger said...

i enjoy the moronic comments, kinda puts into pespective what kind of mindless morons are out there who think the market only goes up, they're the easy money to take on the way down, thinking they're buying dips, which they are , buying dipshits maybe, but all the same, when you feel down about your positions, it's nice to know there's always bigger idiots out there. just my worthless thoughts

JakeGint said...

Gary, thanks for your info on the COT...

Whomever asked for the Jesse Blog... all you need to do is click on the odd name up above here with the Chinese characters in it... his blogs are attached to that info ID. (his is the name with the NYSE brass bull as the AV next to it, coincidentally).

TIM!!

THANKS FOR GETTING RID OF THE FARKING SECRET WORD! BLESS YOU, MY SON!