Monday, April 23, 2007

Finally!

At long last, the Dow did not go up today. A one-day respite, at least, from the torture!

A lot of people are responding to the poll I posted earlier today. For those that haven't responded yet, please do so.......

Should this blog allow anonymous posters or require registration?


What's the one thing you'd like to see that would improve this blog?


What kind of trader are you?


Thank you. I've been watching the results accumulate today, and it's very informative.

All eyes have been on Asia, particularly since the 2/27 blowout. People are wondering when the mania is going to end. God only knows, and He ain't telling. Here's a graph of Malaysia. I mean, these aren't magical fairylands, people. Have you been to Malaysia? I have. I think it's a hole, myself. But then again, I'm an Ugly American.


Even though we haven't crossed the fabled 13,000 mark on the Dow, the press is already impatiently looking for the next big milestone. ''We could be looking at 14,000 by the end of the year,'' said Robert Froehlich, chief investment strategist for DWS Scudder. Yeah, fine. Whatever.

Anyway, the S&P had a touch of weakness today, but notice how it stayed perfectly above its former resistance level. In other words, now that line represents support.



The Morgan Stanley Tech Index looks like it could fall badly, but unfortunately, the spread between the bid/ask on these options is wider than Rosie O'Donnell's underwear. (I wonder to myself just how long people will pause before clicking that link.)


A couple of cautionary tales for you. First - - - American Airlines (AMR) appears to be a lovely head and shoulders pattern.


But look at Continental Airlines (CAL), which I was mentioning as a short for the same reason a few weeks ago. It pushed above its neckline twice. And then - finally - started to fall. All I can say is that, because of this, AMR doesn't' excite me as much as it might, and this serves as a reminder of the importance of stops.


Another cautionary tale. The stock ONT looks like a honey of a buy. I've mentioned this before. Great volume. Great price action. All the right moves.


Let's look back a few years, though. A similar situation with the same stock. Let's presume you jumped in and bought a bunch of this.


What happened next? The technical term is that the stock farted around for years to come. In fact, the aforementioned farting was down at a substantially lower price. So although the burst above the saucer was great for those who got in early (and got out), it wasn't so hot for the buy-and-holders. And that's not because the market was bad in general. On the contrary, the market was very strong.


Capital One (COF), which I mentioned as a short countless times earlier this year, continues to fall.


Lehman Brothers (LEH) has a fascinating interaction with those Fibonacci fans. Investment banks have had huge runs up (yes, yes, I got blown out of GS) but this is worth watching.


As for Southern Copper (PCU), I think one glance at this channel would suggest that, no matter what your viewpoint on the stock, we're certainly at the northern end of this channel.


Check out Potash Corp (POT). That's quite a shooting star, yes? A short on this with a stop price just above the high today may pay off nicely.


Finally, Schnitzer (SCHN) continues to act bullishly. I'm including its former breakout from years ago to indicate what a handsome move this stock has made in the past from a similar breakout.


I'll post the results of the poll tomorrow and indicate what, if any, changes I'll be making to this blog based on your input. Thank you!

107 comments:

Anonymous said...

unofrtunately tim it looks like tomorrow is more torture for you: TXN is up something like 9% this evening, so here comes Dow 13,000. OUCH!!

Anonymous said...

Well, my 17 year old grandson came over to visit today and mentioned he wants to be a pro day trader and just started trading stocks. He fired up his online brokerage on my computer and showed me how much he made this year (+7k on a rather small account). Does this mean the top is near or what???

PaC

Tim Knight said...

"unofrtunately tim it looks like tomorrow is more torture for you: TXN is up something like 9% this evening, so here comes Dow 13,000. OUCH!!"

I welcome Dow 13,000 with open arms. Because then people will stop talking about it.

z-stock said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

Love the humour :)

Anonymous said...

Making money betting on the upside is so easy..'EVEN A CAVEMAN COULD DO IT ' !!

Anonymous said...

Dow will not touch 13000 since everyone is expecting.

Sell off begun today.

Big Bear

z-stock said...

WELL TIM
Tomthetraitor.......*&$#*^%#.. ....i guess.....in his world ...nothing’s for free......
too bad!!!....i rather liked his picks....
z....
Anon...2:55....what should I buy..next......???

anon 2:55 said...

I see AAPL going to 100+ !! Soon !

plunger said...

2) the beneficence of their contributions far outweighs the malevolence voiced by a few of the Luddites; (3) the Luddites serve as a convenient reminder has to how far any of us can slip if we fail to mind out manners."


who talks like this?

please, I can take all the anonymous bashing, but I can't take the f***ing pompous prose, big words do not equate big IQ, my wife has a masters in english lit. and i don't think she's ever spoke like that, please , keep it simple, for us less intelligent folks, and try to save the big words for the book club meetings

plunger said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Bullzwin said...

You goofs just don't get it.

They are moving the whole market up.

Every idiot is short and on the wrong side of the trade - the short interest is massive.

Like a hammer to the head - TXN up 9% finally gets the message across to you thick numbskills.

Enough said.

Shut this bearish blog down NOW.

plunger said...

"message across to you thick numbskills. "

numbskills?

oh yeah, your a fuckin market genuius,

Kool Kat said...

"Shut this bearish blog down NOW."

If the blog is shut down, where will you get your jollies ? Admit it you get a high coming here.

;-)

Anonymous said...

Making money betting on the upside is so easy..'EVEN A CAVEMAN COULD DO IT ' !!

Bears are therapists!! smart but lose money, bears get slaughtered

Tim Knight said...

I cannot fathom the logic of a person who elects to return to a blog day after day, demanding it cease to exist.

Just don't come here, all right? God almighty, you bulls are stoopid.

wshhmm德州牌手 said...

I am a bear. However, I didn't feel any bearish today. The small pull back is nothing.

13000 is just a reason.

Kool Kat said...

Wshhmm..xxxxx - looks at your profile pic, you are a bear ?? Thinking of changing camps are we ?

:D

Geoff said...

Tim,
This comment should probably be in the 'What do you want?' post but I'll go ahead.
I like the current mix of index analysis and individual stock picks that you post now.
I also enjoy videos; if people don't like them then they just don't have to click the play button.
You should keep doing whatever you want, because if you ask me you're doing a good job so far, keep it up.

Tim Knight said...

"You should keep doing whatever you want, because if you ask me you're doing a good job so far, keep it up."

Thanks, Geoff; that's what basically everyone seems to be saying. As for the videos - - a number of folks said they could do without them. This confuses me, since they can just NOT click play. But I'm still interested in opinions.

bullzwin said...

Plunger = plunging brokerage account from following the bears and bearish blogs like this.

Kool Kat
I don't get high coming here - but my account gets higher from you numbskills.

Anon said
"Making money betting on the upside is so easy..'EVEN A CAVEMAN COULD DO IT ' !!

>> AND I guess that means the Bears are even dumber than a Caveman because they are making squat. Cro Magnon twits...

Tim Knight said...
"I cannot fathom the logic of a person who elects to return to a blog day after day, demanding it cease to exist."

YA, well I can't fathom the logic of a guy like you who keeps reading the charts day after day saying they are going to go down - when they keep going up!!

JakeGint said...

Plunger, all due respect, but given the choice between the limpid prose of the rare female poster on these boards, and your scatalogical droolings, I'll take the former.

Sorry bud, but maybe finishing up that GED would get your pride back in line?


__________________

best,

Jake, (from the Society for the Preservation of Charlie the Cynical Unirenal Unicorn Vids.)

PS -- don't go complaining to Tim, either... he lives in Palo Alto fro Christmas sakes...

Tim Knight said...

Being neither facetious nor didactic, I'm inclined to concur.

marxist said...

Great call on COF!

wincity said...

Tim,

I don't know how it feels to be the target of the many juvenile posts every day, so it may not be appropriate for me to say this.

I feel it's a big hassle to require people to register to post. It might be a good idea to moderate the comments. Set a guideline and delete all the posts which are off. Should help everybody, IMO.

Tim Knight said...

"I feel it's a big hassle to require people to register to post. It might be a good idea to moderate the comments. Set a guideline and delete all the posts which are off. Should help everybody, IMO."

I tried that a few days ago for about 30 minutes, wincity - - - it's a big pain in the ass, because this blog gets dozens and dozens of comments per day, and I don't have the time or energy to approve each one. If I do decide to leave anonymous people (and the votes are, thus far, against it), I prefer to trim out the obnoxious posts as opposed to spending time approving what are, by and large, acceptable entries.

Dennis said...

At this point, if you are still a bear, it doesn't pay to be overly anticipatory in term of calling the top. Wait until there is a serious break in the indexes before commit to short. But I think there are some interesting stocks to short. For example, everyone's favorite stock GOOG. Even after a good earning report, stock didn't really pop. I think it is because the growth rate is slowing down (from 100% to 69%). I haven't shorted it yet but am watching it for opportunity.

IM said...

The US market is not coming down till China comes down. I think the Shanghai Composite has another 300-400 (10%) point of upside before it runs out of fuel. This should happen in a few weeks. The index will end in a parabolic top and the reaction will be felt across the globe. I think the Dow gets to 13300-13500 and the S&P could potentially double top at 1527.This seems to be a reasonable scenario. I would buy any pullback here .

wincity said...

Tim,

I didn't mean for you to approve every post. I'm sure your time is more valuable. It's enough to just delete the stupid ones. You could let a teenager do it.

On the other hand, not that many blogs get this many comments every day.

Anonymous said...

are you buying any pullback dummy, iwould not touch this market im, you talk the talk but are you walking and puttin your damn money on the line. short this crap, idid.

Trading Goddess said...

"stoopid bulls"?

Do you always categorize everyone?

My!

*stamps foot*

That is unacceptable! I demand an apology! Please send it in written form, as well as one dozen FLWS, to my blog forthwith!

Now, if you will excuse me, I am off to tell my very dear friends over at Get Short, what a beast you truly are!!!

Anonymous said...

listen up, what TXN DID AND ALL OTHER STOCKS WAS:

UNDER PROMISE AND OVER DELIVER.

Doesn't anyone comprehend that this is the only way stocks can move higher.

Anonymous said...

by the way TGT WARNED TONIGHT ON WEAKER SALES.

IF housing numbers come in weak tomorrow you can just forget about TXN.

plunger said...

"Plunger, all due respect, but given the choice between the limpid prose of the rare female poster on these boards, and your scatalogical droolings, I'll take the former."

Sorry bud, but maybe finishing up that GED would get your pride back in line?


i'm sure your used to the "rare female" there jakey. by the way, i did finish my GED, about four years before my BA from UF. if you could, maybe ,find that "rare" real female, (unlike your unicorns your so fond of), to meet in life, you might not need the droolings of one online, and tell me ,wordsmith, how does this "assume my lack of pride" exactly? do tell jake, your ladies are awaiting your defense ,

and please, no big words, you,leisa and tim are soooo' smart, us lil' uneducated can't understand you,

plunger said...

pretty funny anon 6:41,
they seem to think if they use big words they're sooo much smarter than us peons who voice an opinion opposed to theirs. maybe tim and jake know the meaning of the word "pompous"
ring a bell there jakey? look it up when you get the chance, your dictionary is probably under your mail order bride catalog.

Anonymous said...

i hate bulls.

plunger said...

check "pathetic" while your at it too jake, its near pompous in the dictionary, then take a good long look at your life....


honestly, take a look,,,



sad,


but hey, cheer up, you've got a new girlfriend and a new "bestest" friend tim here on this site

bullzwin said...

Plunger

Stop being so
antidisestablishmentarianistic.

And TIM listen to the Trading Porn Goddess and

SHUT DOWN THIS BLOG

JakeGint said...

LOL. Looks like I struck a nerve there, didn't I.... knucklehead?

Happily married -- no postal facilities involved, thanks -- with four little kids (all mine, even).

Oh, and my best friend's folks live in Gatorville, which is a lovely place, IMHO.

Your rancor aside, go Gators! As obnoxious and obviously troubled as you are, you're no match for the median obnoxiosity level of the average Buckeye fan*.

Believe me.

Jake, (S.P.C.C.U.U.V)

__________

Yes, Tim, worse than the Tree People, too.

Anonymous said...

screw the goddess and her losing trades.

Tim Knight said...

People, people! Calm down!

Oh, a bummer note. David Halberstam - Pulitzer prize winning journalist and author of some fantastic books - was killed today (just a few blocks from my house, actually) in a car accident. :-(

http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/04/23/halberstam.death/

JakeGint said...

Damn Palo Alto drivers!

Anonymous said...

Tim,
First of all it's your blog so you can do what you want with it. I like it just the way it is. Index charts, stock pick charts, videos, it's great and if people don't like the blog they don't have to come here. If they don't like the videos ...they don't have to click on the links. One more thing about the anonymous posts....I have tried several times to set up a login but Google refuses to let me. So block the anons if you want, they do however make for some interesting and very funny reading. Just the verbage some use makes me wonder if they even graduated from high school. But that's the real world I guess. Keep up the good work Tim. Thanks a bunch.

Doug

Market Speculator said...

why shut down this blog?

Shanghai is about to crack...i've been blogging about it for a week. Just absolutely ugly, going to make our '00 market look like mince meat. We'll see a nice 60+gauge out of China...going to kill their economy...it'll be much like the crash in 1929, big depression to follow!

So much for high oil prices.

Market Spek

Keep up the good work Timmy!

plunger said...

your best freinds folks ? wow, you must be so proud!

"obnoxiosity" ? do you just make words up? obnoxiosity level? you've got to be kidding me,

as for a nerve, its people like you that hide behind the computer and a overzelous vocabulary and try to convince yourselves that your just a little smarter than everyone else. its a smug, smarmy attitude that makes you a dick. not your IQ level, but your belief that your better than people because of it. im gonna guess your early fifties, low-middle income, blue-collar job, 23 years left on a 30 year mortgage, overweight, and no real, true freinds, just people who you try to impress and when you leave they talk about what a pompous dick you are, jmho tho, pretty close tho huh

hows that for striking a nerve

plunger said...

you actually P.S. tim in your little secret squirrel code, like he's your freind or could really give a shit whether you exist or not, c'mon, get a real life jake, its a blog not an excuse for real relationships, go get a "big brother" or join aa, or something,

Anonymous said...

"Oh, a bummer note. David Halberstam - Pulitzer died"

R.I.P. To Him.


sincerely,
ben dover shorties

JakeGint said...

Dude, get some help. Seriously.

Or like, a church group or something.

Um, and 36, actually.

Go Gators!

JakeGint said...

Oh, and "Market Speculator?"

Your link (aka: "Market Spek") just sent the klaxons off on my Norton worm detector.

"Blocked an intrusion" allegedly.

You might want to look into that.

best,

Jake.

__________

... and Plumber? Don't forget...

Go Gators!

JakeGint said...

Holy crap! Excuse my French, but I can't believe what I just saw...

Tim's got an ad for TomtheTrader ("TTT Hedge Fund" ) running on the right of his blog!

LOFL!

Tim, what happened... you finally told that stiff to put up or shut up? Lol!

Awesome!

Anonymous said...

WooooooHooooooo....I got my head shaved...

b.healed said...

A couple of days ago i bought an AUG 100P on IWR. Anybody have any thoughts. I bought it on wednesday or thursday. My only other position right now is a straddle on DAKT i got a little over a week ago. waiting to hold it moving into earnings. it has a history of getting a good move coming into earnings.

Anonymous said...

Tim,

Right now I'm long an explorer stock ( big risk -- but in the green so far )and today, shorter QQQQ (long QID). QQQQ looks way, way over priced to me. But the trend has been clearly up. It looks to me like a three year EW 'flat' pattern. Makes me think that it's setting up for a decent decline. Since expiration, I'm expecting a little break, at least. Hoping for more. 'They slide faster than they glide.'

Watching the DOW today. It finished on the weak side. All afternoon the indexes struggled/churned in the red. Sold off into the close. Then after hours QQQQ was up?? What? Another gap up tomorrow? No way.

Your blog is fine. I like to see fibonocci overlays on the charts. Spurious comments, I treat the same as I do from my six and eight year old. But they don't get away with potty mouth./

FW

Anonymous said...

take a look at IBEX spanish stock index and real state companies in Spain the bubble is bursting , Astroc was at 75 euros the 6 of february today is at 13.5 . This is just the beginning.

Javier

Leisa said...

Plunger-

Stop being such jerk.

I'm not trying to impress you nor any other. If you don't like how I write or cannot understand it, move along to another's post. That's YOUR issue, not mine.

One writes for his/her audience. Most of my posts are directed to Tim. I don't need to dumb down my communication to him so that you can understand it.

And, if I were ever conscripted into a job where I would have to write in a way to appeal to persons of your character and intellect, I'd just as soon have my hands chopped off.

plunger said...

thats right jakey, go gators, your gettin it. do i sense a glint of intelligence or you just jumping on the band wagon now that we've won a couple championships? as for OHIO being more obnoxious than gator fans? obviously you've never been to the swamp.

as for personal help. none needed here, your the one who shot his mouth off. i mean nobody ,but nobody talks like that, and you fucking know it. all i'm saying is be real, pretentious people piss me off. (thats under the P's in the dictionary too jake) but then again maybe pretending to be smart helps alleviate the pain of the losses.

"nor didactic,"

tim
you're right, you're not, at least not on this site,

plunger said...

leisa writes"
I don't need to dumb down my communication to him so that you can understand it.And, if I were ever conscripted into a job where I would have to write in a way to appeal to persons of your character and intellect, I'd just as soon have my hands chopped off. "

thats pretentious, you immediately assume were of lesser intelligence because we dont appreciate your vast vocabulary, and our character must be of such low scruples as to not be worthy of you superior intellectual diatribes. WOW.

(conscripted,?? its america you need not be conscripted to do anything,)

just because we dont pretend to have a grandoise vocabulary or your unmatched grasp of the english language, doesnt immediately mean we're of lesser intelligence, just not as ostentatious.

if your looking for big words to use , look up POMPOUS, or PRETENTIOUS,

and i'm sure tim and all the others will come to your defense, but it still does not change the truth.

the only way you'd ever write for me is if you were taking my lunch order..

Anonymous said...

the only way you'd ever write for me is if you were taking my lunch order..


thats funny!

Shawn said...

Tim, why are you so biased on Malaysia? Did the country lock you up and bully you? rape you? I think you are throwing your very personal feelings and post it as an objective analysis.

If you want to talk about human rights, there are many more neighboring countries in Asia/SouthEast Asia that are worse.

If you want to talk about stock market mania, look no further than ShangHai and Hong Kong. I am not sure, but maybe even Singapore and Indonesia beat Malaysia. Those countries already well surpassed their stocks market peaks of 1997 few years back, while Malaysia just passed it very recently.

So, what's your motive here? Objective ANAL-ysis?

Anonymous said...

I say today is a gift to cover your short position puts boyz..

Anonymous said...

Well ,when IBM is up 5% ,that mitigates all other so-called negative internals.

Anonymous said...

housing down 8.4%, dow up 20

if only housing was up 8.4% dow would be up 200pts

that's how spin works.

the spin starts here!!!!

Anonymous said...

Cramer says he's watching WHR.I'm sure he is. Duh. Up $14 !!

Anonymous said...

Any bears need the lube?

bullzwin said...

This is the last time I post.

Please listen:
Here are my reasons to

SHUT THIS BLOG DOWN.

The bear market was over in 2002.

Market is 25% undervalued relative to 10 year yield.

Liquidity is being pumped like there is no tomorrow - the Fed is offering 40Billion a day in Temp Market OPs.

And the market psychology is still negative - based on short interest readings.

And once Oil hits $70 - it will go down - and another reason the market will be bought.

Also Millions of day traders have been programmed to buy the dip.

Until all of this changes -corrections will be shallow - or short and sweet like Mar 13th.

BULLZWIN

Anonymous said...

I say today is a gift to cover your short position puts boyz..

7:46 AM

I think you are right. 13k tomorrow.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/dow-stages-technically-valid-break/story.aspx?guid=%7B5F5BDFF7%2DB93C%2D4C0A%2D8BC7%2D16CD92533B39%7D

Anonymous said...

$INDU has not truly broken out yet, nor has SPX or NDX. Dow is right up against the '04 channel top. Coming off an OpEx week that does not necessarily signal a gallup to new heights. This week should be very telling, and a true reversal would retest the June/July lows.

JakeGint said...

Hey Gator Plumber,

Are you familiar with the term "Methinks the lady doth protest too much?"

That's all this is about. Remember, you're the one who started in on the attack. Leisa wasn't even addressing you to begin, so I don't know why you're getting so defensive after chucking random ad homenums at her -- seemingly out of the blue.

Now, you might have had a bad day, or whatever, but it's pretty clear that something outside of Leisa's tendency towards five dollar Websters is bugging you. You're making far too big a deal outta nuttin'.

Ooops, lookee there, devolving back into my native Lawn Guyland speak. Maybe it will come in handy in this instance:

"Fugheddaboudit, Gatah."

JakeGint said...

Oh, and regarding my temporary Gator fandom -- anyone who kicks the schite out of Bucknut State twice in one season (thrice, if you count that first hoops game in December) has got my admiration for life.

Not sure where you live but if you ever run into an OSU fan, you'll know what I'm sayin'.

Know what I'm sayin'?

___________________

Oh yeah -- short APA.

Anonymous said...

if this market ever got to june or july lows I would go LONG LONG LONG LONG............

THE MARKET CANT GO DOWN DUE TO PPT AND LIQUIDITIY. ITS ALL WISHFUL THINKING. Like his morning when those numbers came out. Both were bad and what happened, market rallied This market is fucking manipulated.

Anonymous said...

bullzwin said...

This is the last time I post.

Please listen:
Here are my reasons to

SHUT THIS BLOG DOWN.

The bear market was over in 2002.

Market is 25% undervalued relative to 10 year yield.

Liquidity is being pumped like there is no tomorrow - the Fed is offering 40Billion a day in Temp Market OPs.

And the market psychology is still negative - based on short interest readings.

And once Oil hits $70 - it will go down - and another reason the market will be bought.

Also Millions of day traders have been programmed to buy the dip.

Until all of this changes -corrections will be shallow - or short and sweet like Mar 13th.

BULLZWIN

9:27 AM


agree with it all but the part telling him to shut the blog down. When the bear comes this blog will get a 500-1000 comments a day. Going to be sweet.

Your right about how the fed continues to print money, its fucking disgusting that it takes that much money to get these market higher. If it were not for the fed pumping money in these markets would be at 11k. FUCKING IRRATIONAL.

plunger said...

i told you what bothers me, if your unable to understand the last four or five posts maybe you should finish that GED you were talking about ? i'll tell you again plainly; POMPOUS, PRETENTIOUS PEOPLE PISS ME OFF, not an attack on you personally, but it just gets under my skin, cant help it, just a character flaw i guess. i've got many im sure,

oh yeah, it's hamlet, and by the way it's actually " The lady doth protest too much, methinks"

lovin life in fLA.

hammer said...

BEARS ARE TOAST.

BEARS WILL ALL BE THROWING IN THE TOWELS NOW.

WORLD POWERS TO ALLOW IRAN ENRICHMENT = MEANS OIL GOES DOWN = MEANS MARKETS GO UP.

US DOLLAR IS BOTTOMING - COMMODITIES DONE = US MARKET TO RISE = INFLATION RESOLVED = LARGE MONEY INTO US MARKET.

SEC WILL NOT SUE JOBS.



I USED CAPS BECAUSE BEARS JUST DON'T SEEM TO GET THE MESSAGE

Anonymous said...

Liquidity is being pumped like there is no tomorrow - and I am net call buy while you put buyers are getting creamed in the face....

Leisa said...

Yesterday I picked up some HERO because it's a stock I've been in and out of and I think is undervalued. It was a pleasant surprise to see that Cramer had touted it last p.m.

Anonymous said...

GUESS WHAT EVERYONE????

I WENT LONG DDM, LAST TIME I WENT LONG DDM THE MARKET TANKED.

if the market tanks its because I just went long a HUGE amount of DDM.


im thinking we get to 13,000 today thats why I bought it. If we break 13,000 the market is going to get a bunch of new money in.....

lets see what happens. Also BA earnings tomorrow should lift the market again.

plunger said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

if the dollar tanking like it, didnt do anything negative for the market why do you think a rising dollar will be better for the stock market.....damnnn

plunger said...

Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please.
- Mark Twain [Samuel Langhorne Clemens]

Anonymous said...

Bulls make money

Pigs make money

Bears become bear claws at Starbucks

beanie11111 said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
plunger said...

by the way jakey lawnboy gayland, you might want to work on your grasp of english before you come to anyones aid about it again,

"devolve"? maybe you meant regressing or degenerating, but devolve does not mean un-evolve if thats what you thought, but hey i remember my first time with big words too.

Leisa said...

Let's see...who's authority do we accept on devolve Plunger's or American Heritage's. I'll support the American Heritage's #2 definition:
"To degenerate or deteriorate gradually: After several hours the discussion had devolved into a shouting match."

And I'll also acknowledge with shame my own contribution to that devolution. Jake for atonement we'll need to go to the woodshed (we can smoke drink and cuss.) Plunger, you'd be welcome too. Smokin', drinkin' and cussin' builds camaraderie.

Anonymous said...

hope every bear bought puts this morning and got stopped out with big damn losses......nice strong close boys...

Anonymous said...

That is one big difference between bulls and (cyclical/perma) bears, as demonstrated by the above post. Usually when the market tanks hard and I'm short, like on feb 27th, I can't help it but feel sorry for the ignorance of all the bulls that lost. It's hard to want someone to lose money just because they have different views, unless you are a complete idiot, as the above poster clearly is :(
By the way, not-so-strong close... I hope you did ok.

plunger said...

de·volve volved, -volv·ing.
–verb (used with object) 1. to transfer or delegate (a duty, responsibility, etc.) to or upon another; pass on.
2. Obsolete. to cause to roll downward.
–verb (used without object) 3. to be transferred or passed on from one to another: The responsibility devolved on me.
4. Archaic. to roll or flow downward.


[Origin: 1375–1425; late ME devolven < L dévolvere to roll down, equiv. to dé- de- + volvere to roll]


right definition wrong use, he cannot be devolving, your definition means the the discussion grew worse, not regressed to past ,

thanks for the invite to the woodshed, it's where i'm at my best.

all apologies tho leisa, i was out of line towards you

Anonymous said...

Bears are totally incompetent and all are losing their reserve.

Anonymous said...

Finally!

At long last, the Dow did not go up today. A one-day respite, at least, from the torture!

NO LUCK, NOT MORE THAN A DAY

past few weeks

8 UP 1 DOWN 7 UP 1 DOWN (future 8 UP) DOW 1350000000000000

Anonymous said...

ha this market is tiring me out, as much as i want to give up I cant. My portfolio is so bearish that days like this even hurt. I actually went long some stock today, I figure after some earnings reports tomorrow we could get another ride up past 13k where Ill sell and go short once again. AMZN is up nearly 10% after the close. tomorrow BA reports which should be a good qu., tomorrow night AAPL, that is a biggggg market mover. Nasdaq may be good for a huge day on Thursday morning.

plunger said...

anon 1:16
do you actually have money in the market or are you just playing on your dads computer again?

Anonymous said...

That was me who went long DDM this afternoon, what did I tell, I told you I can control the market by buying in Long. Any bear should be happy I went long this afternoon, tonight the asian markets will be off 1-2%, and tomorrow when you wake up expect the DOW off 30-50 points on the open, and the nasdaq off about 10 points. You can thank me later.





Anonymous said...

GUESS WHAT EVERYONE????

I WENT LONG DDM, LAST TIME I WENT LONG DDM THE MARKET TANKED.

if the market tanks its because I just went long a HUGE amount of DDM.


im thinking we get to 13,000 today thats why I bought it. If we break 13,000 the market is going to get a bunch of new money in.....

lets see what happens. Also BA earnings tomorrow should lift the market again.

11:21 AM

Leisa said...

"all apologies tho leisa, i was out of line towards you"

Thank you, Plunger. No harm done.

Anonymous said...

does anyone think that if the markets were to get another day like Feb 27th that a rebound would take place like it has in the last 6 weeks, or would this begin another long drop to 11k?

plunger said...

i been short and long trading past few months, cant fight the tide, gotta go with it, theres plenty of candidates for both plays, just gotta be cautious. made decent$$ on qqqq calls last few weeks, after getting burned in puts, but got some long term puts holding out, and long stocks as well. i like the short side, but it makes no sense to be a perma-bear as some put it.

contrary to popular beleif here, REITs are still doing well if your choosy, and pay a nice dividend as well.

and good plays in the commodoties as well.

and watching banks for the next play

JakeGint said...

Plumber,

While your Google skillz are to be commended with regard to your Shakesperean research efforts, more effort is needed on the lexemes:

devolve (v.) - grow worse; "Her condition deteriorated"; "Conditions in the slums degenerated"; "The discussion devolved into a shouting match"
degenerate, deteriorate, drop
fatigue, jade, tire, weary, pall - get tired of something or somebody
languish, fade - become feeble; "The prisoner has be languishing for years in the dungeon"
rot, waste - waste away; "Political prisoners are wasting away in many prisons all over the world"
decline, worsen - grow worse; "Conditions in the slum worsened"

__________________

As for this:

"but hey i remember my first time with big words too"

Yes, dear boy, we were all here last night when you had your original hissy.

How's this for a big word you won't even have to Google?

"Shathafuggup!"


Go Gators!

Leisa said...

Plunger, I still have some SRS (the ultra-short REIT ETF). REITS do pay a nice dividend. I theorize (which means not a damn thing) that there is still some vulnerability in the REITS . I think that retail sales have some headwinds--due to seasonal and macro factors. I bought puts (JUL 100's) on RTH when it was at 105/6. My theory there is that the market hasn't really factored in the front loading of March sales with April sales due to Easter holidays--witness the surprise today with TGT.

I bought FMD when it tanked last week (due to SLM). It's green, though it lost some ground today. I'm not sure whether I want to hold through earnings.

Today I bought some IIVI to flip. It dropped like a rock during earnings reaction and that seemed overdone to me. Though guidance was reduced, it was a decent P/E even with the guidance and the explanation of the quarter's softness seemed reasonable. Roth then upgraded it at 3 p.m which was a nice boon. We'll see how it holds tomorrow.

It will be interesting to see how the Asian markets hold up tonight with the consumer confidence. They have lots at stake with our consumer.

I'd be interested in hearing your bank thesis. I think that the interest rate environment is dicey, and I'm confident that the loan loss reserves are on the light side. But there is that buffering hope that the FED will cut rates.

But I know the market doesn't care about my theories. I've had a couple of lucky picks these last couple of days. Soothes some of the pain of a couple of short positions that I relentlessly hang onto.

plunger said...

jakey lawnboy said
"devolving back into my native Lawn Guyland speak. "

ok genius, which one of your definitions work here?
1.grow worse : growing worse into my native... nope not this one
2.degenerate: i degenerating.. nope not even a word, hmm
3.fatigue: i fatigue into my native... still no..
4.languish: i languish into my native speak... still not right..hmm
5.rot: i rot into my native speak... you probably do but still not correct usage..
6.decline: i decline into my native speak... damn still wrong usage, imagine that, a giant wordsmith like jake here, unable to defend his grammatical position. nice try tho maybe you could take some "english as a second language" course at the community center...

REGRESS, thats the word you were looking for but as usual, unable to find,as in "i REGRESS into my native speak...

and unlike you we all don't need the computer to recall famous prose, the quote is from hamlet and about kissing ass which i'm sure you know all about

as for leisa i apologized, i was way out of line and am sorry for saying anything negative about her, but hey , it's not a total loss, i found you,

plunger said...

It will be interesting to see how the Asian markets hold up tonight with the consumer confidence. They have lots at stake with our consumer.

i agree completely, but i have don't have enough knowledge of the foreign markets to try a guess. you have a much better grasp of the micro-economic factors than I.

as for the REITs, i only invest in the ones i really understand and have been focusing on mainly commercial property reits and medical property ones(which have been my best winners as of late). the yeilds are huge and when they tighten to much or spread to thin its time to bail. but gains have been 14%-28% along with 7-10% yeilds. over last 4-5 months. the commercial real estate market has not been hurt by the housing bust. at least not yet,

the banks, again only personal opinion, but i deal with bankers quite a bit thru work and most are in a real gloom and doom mood lately. they all feel the economy is bad and getting worse. my question is " is this the bottom, or an omen of things to come" the fed is in a tight spot, cut rates and foreign money flees from treasuries, don't cut rates and housing continues to fall and foreclosures continue to rise. thats why this new program out last few days to bail out all the arm loans, let them convert to fixed, only way to help housing without cutting rates,

without a rate cut and earnings season ending mid year,markets got nothing to look forward to. the m3 money will continue to refloat itself , but only for so long, market will chop around or fall, but when, i have no idea, when the catalyst for higher runs out and selling begets selling. i think we see 13,000 soon but not much more after that.

glad to hear you made some $$ with IIVI, nice trade, the market may not be interested in your opinions but the blog is, and im still sore from the my shorts last month as well.
fmd, i like the company, think they got nailed on that lending scandal that hit the news, kickbacks and all, but earnings should be good, depends how the market takes it tho,good luck

all this just my redneck opinion,

z-stock said...

JAKE and PLUNGER....
I really enjoyed.....reading ......the banter.....
I haven’t laughed so hard...in such a long time.....I’m not sure if it’s good for my heart......
Zee....
And thanks anon...I’ll keep eyes on APPL....

plunger said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
plunger said...

z-stock said:

JAKE and PLUNGER....
I really enjoyed.....reading ......the
banter.....
I haven’t laughed so hard...in such a long time.....I’m not sure if it’s good for my heart......
Zee....
And thanks anon...I’ll keep eyes on APPL....

3:35 PM


..it is fun aint it,

JakeGint said...

Plumber,

"Degenerating" is not a word?

Really?

Sorry you spent all that time typing only to end up looking like a fool again.

(And don't worry -- I'll be here when you get to that step that asks forgiveness of those whom you've wronged.)

Go Gators!

plunger said...

not in that sense it was used. see, your problem is not words, but correct usage, beleive it or not, not all words can be used in any sentence, theres such a thing as structure, but thats a little beyond you yet.

and thats all the reply from that, one word is all you could find? how about defending yourself, oh yeah you cant, admit you were wrong and move on, it's ok lawnboy, the world needs ditch diggers

Leisa said...

Plunger--

Dahling, I say this with only the best of intentions:

You cannot write a sentence like this [I'm not even bothering with the capitalization problems]. . .

not in that sense it was used. see, your problem is not words, but correct usage, [missing semicolon] beleive ['i' before 'e'] it or not, not all words can be used in any sentence, [hmmm...where's a good period when you need it; must be PMS symptoms]theres [those g-d apostrophes really are important] such a thing as structure, but thats [come here apostrophe, that's a good dog]a little beyond you yet.

and expect your exhortations of correct word usage to have any true weight!

Now, we, the three of us--you, Jake and I--are supposed to be in the woodshed smokin' drinkin' and cussin'(at children and old people no less). Unfortunately,if we are fussin' among (I don't use amongst) ourselves then we are losing out on some really fun stuff. May God (or perhaps Christian Clowns) help us all.

Trading Goddess said...

Tim?

For the record, I have never said you should close your blog down like bullzwin said I did above.

Oh! And thank you for the FLWS you sent yesterday - they were gorgeous! And as far as the invite to dinner, I will have to think about that for a bit. I am sure you can understand my hesitancy?

Have a good day tomorrow. And smile at least once, o.k.?

plunger said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
plunger said...

I didn't realize it we were being tested or I would have done my very,[comma]very best.[period]I had thought we were discussing language use not punctuation. [period] You of all people should recognize the difference between the two.[period]

I find no need to waste my time with correct punctuation on a blog, but when challenged regarding word use I answered correctly, punctuation aside. There are many rules for the english language, some for meaning and some for punctuation, but one does not negate the other as you are so valiantly trying to allude to for jakey's honor. [which I do respect you for,] HOWEVER,( wrong I know, but necessary for emphasis) you still did not refute the fact that he was WRONG in his word choice which is what the comment was actually about.

Maybe one day you'll let the little things go Leisa and focus on the main topics, that way the real problems are addressed and additional controversy is avoided.

thanks for the lesson tho, I appreciate it.