Tuesday, April 17, 2007

Cocksure

Out of the past 24 trading days, the Dow Jones has been up 20 of them. The market has been on a basically unstoppable rise since July of last year. And, since October 2002, the market across the board - particularly in Mid Caps - has been zooming higher.

Even the strength since February 27 of this year has made the bulls nauseatingly cocksure. Here are some recent quotes I have extracted from the comments section of this blog. Keep in mind that bulls aren't exactly the sharpest knives in the drawer, so you'll need to look past the grammatical errors and misspellings, all of which I've left intact:

you morons are shorting into the next largest bull market. who gives a damn about volume when price pays boys.

Ahh another up day, the bears cannot catch a break.....fu$king sad. UP UP UP, the dow has had its longest winning streak in 4 years. WTF is wrong with this picture?

bullish is the way to live the good life and buy index options for the weekly runs to maximize gains

take that bears, nice rally for all you moron put buyers.....

everyone including the parents were waiting for this rally. believe me short tim it is far from over pall

Trader time, wrong again,.. When will you admit to being wrong earlier with regards to your bearish predictions and puts? Why are you still in denial? Stop being a n00b and admit to your errors. Why do you keep relying on technical analysis while oblivious to fundementals, which is what really drives this market? Anyweay best of luck cause yoru gonan need it.

So your thankful for 'helpful' advice even if it is wrong advice? That makes a lot of sense.

I don't think the market is half as frustrating as you are silly. I said all along, if there is a top, identify it with a name.....silence. Soon it there will be another sell off, but you will have much more trouble picking it out verses buying the dips till they don't work no more.

i hope you shorts get hit with huge losses trying to go against the great American way of everyone prospering together.

bend over shorties.....

take that bear shorty, new highs galore across the board and time to buy calls with all dry gunpowder to leverage the coming upside in the next few weeks.

Chart more long positions so we can actually make money...lmao...

And there you have it. Bullishness in a nutshell. One might want to acquaint any bull friends with the difference between a possessive pronoun and a contraction. Or the proper spelling of the word versus. Or the fact that terms like "lmao" were used by folks like me back in 1980 - nearly thirty years ago - and seemed trite even back then.

It was recently offered the the logic for being bullish was that Warren Buffett was rich. I could use the same logic to start my own digital animation company and personal computer manufacturer since Steve Jobs is rich.

This site is about charting the U.S. markets (primarily). Everyone should keep in mind that I take my valuable time doing this blog not because it makes me any money, but because I like looking at - and talking about - charts. This blog has earned a well-deserved reputation as a safe haven for bears. But, since the spirit is willing and the flesh is weak, bears have been dropping, one by one. Even my old friend Dennis turned in his virtual bear card last week.

My disposition remains unaltered, not out of stubbornness, but out of thoughtful analysis. One need only examine the comments extracted above to comprehend the depth of thoughtfulness bulls can conjure up. They have been right, to be sure, over the most recent years. And, broadly speaking, they have likewise been right since 1982. But, I say again, my present point of view remains unchanged in spite of the market's recent strength.

The Dow Jones 30, shown below, had another positive day today, although this evening's GLOBEX markets are rather weak. (Yahoo, in particular, is kept walloped by nearly 9% as of this writing). There is, as always, a potential to mark a double top here, but broader indices (such as the $MID) recently went on to new highs and negated their potential double tops. It would take very little additional strength on the Dow's part to do the same.


A look at the $MID, embellished with Bollinger Bands, indicates we are stretched almost to the breaking point at the high end.


Take note of the Russell 2000 as well, which actually went down today in spite of the market's general strength.


The S&P 500 is also way at the top of the Bollinger bands, and the RSI is just peeking over the 70 level, meaning a weak day tomorrow would give us a sell signal via the RSI.


I bought puts on the $XAU today with a stop at $150.


The $XMI seems profoundly overbought to me.


My short in MWP is doing pretty well. This is quite a hyberbolic stock (I won't bore you with ONT today, but that in hyperbolic in a good way - - bulls are doing great with it).


Just to give you some perspective, here's U.S. Steel (X) over the past ten years. I'm sure the bulls will quickly explain away the 12-fold rise in price. But try to be rational, even for a moment. Look at the graph. Tell me this isn't overbought.


People never learn. It's always "different this time." There's always a new excuse. Years ago it was the Nifty Fifty. Or the One Decision Stock. Or the New Economy.

Or, now, the Goldilocks economy. And the sheep..........I mean, the bulls........are happy to go along with it every stinking time.

Special Bull Challenge! For those of you convinced things are Different This Time - - instead of prattling on, tell us what to buy! I'd like any of you bulls to provide ticker symbols, target prices, and stop prices. Since you seem convinced of your rightness, lay it on the table. Tell us poor saps what we should really be doing. We'll see how your picks fare. Please post these in the comments section........

78 comments:

David said...

When the bulls gloat, it's time to sell. When the bears gloat, it's time to buy.

Anonymous said...

Tim wrote,

The bears continue to get shot in the head, one by one.

Well, not all the bears have been shot yet !! I, for one am looking for at least a modest pullback. The Naz,S&P, and Dow have as of today reached their short term targets to the upside. At a minimum there should be a retracement of the recent rally.Once this happens, I will be very carefully watching for additional strength in the market. If the market cannot go onto new highs I would have to assume the Bull Party is over.

Ken

haha said...

... forget these charts... its all superstition

Bolinger Bands - is that some Suzanne Somers exercise equipment

Tim Knight said...

"... forget these charts... its all superstition Bolinger Bands - is that some Suzanne Somers exercise equipment"

Yet more clumsy English from the bulls. The contraction for "it is" has an apostrophe. And John Bollinger's name is spelled with two Ls. Finally, one typically ends a query with a question mark.

Sheesh.

Anonymous said...

Moderately short now and waiting for the real fun to begin. Hang in there, Tim. If nothing else your posts are some of the most humorous in the blogosphere. I especially loved that bit about the patch on y our arm at the parking garage poking fun at union types.

Party on.

Uncle Jack

Jeff said...

Long:
VLO - Jun 62.5 calls - $5, stop $64
PAAS - Jul 30 calls - $2.8, lookin to add
DIVX - large lot $19.57 - tgt $26ish
GRMN straddle - Jul 55 calls/May $50 puts
ISRG - May 125 calls $6.1 - earnings gamble
ICE - May 130 calls $6.8 - stop $129
NYX - Jun 100 calls $3.6 - stop $90
RIMM - long $132.40, stop $130

Short:
JDSA - large lot avg $30.89 - panic sell cover
AMLN - short $42.41 - stop 200day
FSLR - short $63 - stop 52-wk 54.5
LRCX - May 55 puts/Jun 50 puts
XMSR - alot

All positions subject to change tomorrow.

gary said...

Tim,
I'm inclined toward the bear side but the COT report for the last 4 weeks has been extremely bullish. Why fight the big boys. If you don't want to go long the market then go long gold or silver or go to cash. When the COT gets short again then I'll start looking to short. We will get our day in the sun but for now it's too early. Every market around the world has broken out to new highs. It just doesn;t make sense to fight it. Also every intermediate top has come with overbought levels on the weekly charts. We're still not there yet. Patience my friend.

Jeff said...

Remember we've had a string of low volume days....implying the lack of participation by Ma & Pa as seen in AMTD report

Anonymous said...

Gary: Where do you look for COT charts? ... and, did your COT charts tell you an impending decline before last month's 5-day market decline?

Anonymous said...

Sorry ,but no relevance between Steve Jobs and Warren Buffet.We all know that Jobs is tech-brilliant with a vision for products that comes along in probably 1 in 10,000,000 humans ever born.None of us reading or writing these blogs could hope to have achieved a Jobs/Gates/Dell/Ellison kind of success or we would have done it ,be filthy rich and could'nt give a damn about trying to call tops in the market. But like Buffett, probably most of us had a job in high school or soon thereafter and MIGHT have had the foresight to see where human consumption and population and expansion of technology and the increased value of ALL resources would be in our lifetimes and beyond.In other words..he did'nt invent anything,he just had 'plain old horse sense'and invested his own (and eventually others)money in the future that was ahead of him.If he had bet against the capital markets he would have gone broke.(And I read that he knew who Jesse Livermore was and what happened to him). Of course you are consisdered a genius if you have that "horse sense"...kind of like Sam Walton.Just another good ole boy,who that in the early days folks thought was'nt'the sharpest knife in the drawer'. Now I have have an honest question for you Tim...if we go a lot higher,do you get more bearish BECAUSE your system says the market is even more out of control ? Or,if we do start do go down again, do you get wildly bearish because NOW THE CORRECTION has finally started ? And one more...where is it that you think the DJIA and the S&P should be trading RIGHT NOW according to your system of charts and whatever else you use? 10,000,...8,000 (DJIA) ? Where ?
I'll look forward to semi-sarcastic and hopefully informative answer soon !

marxist said...

Tim
I just looked at Gold before reading today's blog. Very different pattern than XAU. In an upward channel (albeit a wide one) So, does that mean that sliver is diverging from Gold?

Does it make sense to go long one and short the other?

Thanks!!
P.S. This bull market is psychological. As in a bubble.

Logic has left the building. It will return when it returns.

This probably also explains why the bull logic we read so much of here is mostly garbage.

Bubbles usually end in a dramatic way. A major event of some kind, resulting in a big fast move down.

You are the super trader. You tell me how one plays that kind of scenario.

Dennis said...

Well, when I said I would have to turn in my bear membership card, I was speaking out of frustration. I got tired of getting beat up day after day. There is a saying that irrational market lasts longer than one can stay solvent. I don't have unlimited fund so I just wanted to stay on the sideline and waited for the mania to pass. For sure, if I see the market breaks in a major way, I will jump in with both feet to short the market.

Anonymous said...

"Irrational exuberance" as an explanation?

tilis said...

TIM

Can I ask you an honest question?

What would it take to change your mind about the US market (as it is now) and turn bullish?

Thanks

gary said...

Anybody can get the COT report every friday at 3:30 EST. I mostly pay attention to the net position of the commercial players in the large contract. Yes they had been warning of an impending correction since Nov. Our job was to wait for the overbought levels and divergences to decide when to intiate shorts. The commercial players are regression to the mean traders and they tend to be very good at aggresively hedging close to intermediate tops and cover at bottoms. As long as these players are leaning toward the bullish side it just doesn't usually pay to short until they go short again and the weekly charts get into overbought territory. here is the link for any who are interested www.cftc.gov look under Chicago mercantile exchange. You can get historic data also, all the way back to 86 if you wish. I'm mostly interested in data from the last 7 years.

Anonymous said...

Is "Dennis" Dennis Gartman by chance? If so, did you not write the rule about markets staying irrational far longer than we can stay solvent? So absolutely true. Has happened to every trader many times in the course of a career. Again, if you are D.G., I recall a CNBC interview shortly after Feb 27 and you mentioned that if the crash gap were to be filled you would be "demonstrably less short" and you held true to those words.

BH

Tim Knight said...

No, Dennis is a friend of mine from many years ago.

As for this question:

"Can I ask you an honest question? What would it take to change your mind about the US market (as it is now) and turn bullish?"

The answer is: nothing. I will say, however, that continued, sustained strength would compel me to close my positions, go 100% cash, and just sit and wait. And I would consider shuttering this blog down, as I would have nothing to say.

Anonymous said...

The word overbought is very dangerous and can cost a lot of money if you decide to short an overbought stock. X has been up 12 fold but it can still go up another 50% from here, all it will take is the pe ratio to go from 11 to 17 which is still cheap.

GemmaStar said...

Tim,

I got out of techs about a year (maybe longer) before the crash. I had to listen to all my friends carry on about their great profits -- and taunt me. (I had been a big tech bull.) Indeed, I began to doubt my own thinking. I didn't go back in only because I felt things must be even MORE oversold as the weeks passed into months.

So I continued to stand aside.

The difference between you and me is this: courage. You have the courage to post your thoughts on a blog. Only a few of my friends knew my real thoughts, but only because I exhorted them to sell.

Not that anyone listened to me.

So, you're early.

Frankly, I'm an optimistic, things-will-get-better, kind of person.

I still believe that. But I think things are going to get worse first.

Hang in there!

Anonymous said...

In trading ,it pays to be " DARWINIAN " ! Evolve with flexibility and Adapt !!

TOMTHETRADER said...

Tim,

DOW
EMC
GLW
GSK
GS
GSF
INTC
MYL
MS
NDAQ
SMH
QCOM
QLD


Write this down and we'll talk at Christmas ...OK and don't go and leave town on me now !!! Just kidding ...my portfolio with some HEDGING of 10% IWM puts. There is my hand and yours ...after 5 losing years ????

I will wait and see ???


TTT

Anonymous said...

Tim,

Love the blog but I do see a bullish potential here. This is what my eyes are telling me....

Ok we recently had a double bottom from 10K-11K which justifies the push past 12K and also the recent retest of 12K as support. Ok what's a few hundred points between friends. Pardon me for not being exact enough for some of you. Now back up a few years and notice the cup and handle from roughly 7,500 - 10,500. That justifies a top of 13,500 and depending just how you measure I can see this thing going to 14K.

God I hope I'm wrong.

Anonymous said...

I feel the party is just starting for the bulls. Nasdaq will be all time high to 5500.

tilis said...

Thanks for the response Tim.

For the record I wonder if you could tell us the time periods during the past 20 years you have been bullish ('92-95, and '03 I'm guessing)

Thanks

z-stock said...

4/17/07
I’ve been making money...on all of my puts....
Zee....

Anonymous said...

If you take the Plunge Protection Team out of the market I think it would be a bear market right away. How come no one brings this up. The Fed is keeping the market up due to housing worrys this is like the 1999 market when they were doing the same thing due y2k worrys. Flood the markets with liquidty

Anonymous said...

7:58

I AGREE 100%, but again many think that is a conspiracy theory and that the PPT does not exist or that the FED prints money and loans it to big brokers to put it to work within the market.

I agree with you, if it were not for the fed pumping the market with free money, who knows where the market would be today. There is just so much liquidity in the market place that its just driving things higher by the second, I'm surprised not many are amazed and stunned by the strength this market has. I mean am I the only one amazed by the CONSTANT record highs on nearly every international
index. I believe its the YEN CARRY trade holding this market up and helping every other market to new record highs.

This cannot continue like this, the higher these markets go without a correction the more severe the correction will be when it does correct.

The bull market has been long and strong, it can only last so long, eventually things do fall apart, nothing can stay perfect forever.

Trader 2006

Anonymous said...

I remember back in June trying to play the market long but losing out nearly everytime, you just couldnt win. Now going to bed at night knowing you have puts or a few shorts makes you crazy.


REMEMBER bulls

The ride down is always FASTER than the ride up.

There is going to be a top, when and where is anyones guess, we could top out at 13534 and go into a deep recession lasting a few years that could put the dow back under 11k.

Again, we all saw what the 27th of Feb brought, a day like that can be coming very soon. Wouldnt be surprised to see a 25% drop in emerging market indexes.

Anonymous said...

Tim,

Your blog keeps my interest.

Just for kicks last night I put together a watchlist on the 'alternative energy' stocks a prior bull poster listed in your comments. After the open today, I had to avert my gaze to another watch list. They got clobbered today.

The hottest stocks are often the first to turn down. My hunch is that the general market will follow their lead soon enough. 'There is a time for everything, and a season for every activity under heaven...' Ecclesiates 3

Timing is everything.

Bob S said...

I enjoy this blog. Tim, you seem to have a real talent for bringing out the worst in people (at least in bulls). If bears are republicans and bulls are democrats then you are the Rush Limbaugh of the markets.

I'm kind of a moderate myself. If the trend is up I go long and if the trend is down I go short. Maybe my problem is I can't make up my mind.

Anonymous said...

Well 8:21, another 800 pts up is a lot of profit if you are holding calls and a hell of a lot of loss of money and confidence if your holding puts or even if you miss it altogether and just watch it happen. 800 pts sounds good . As far as the Feb 27th decline period of 700 pts or so...that was fun but almost totally brought by that decline in China,especially that 5% overnight decline, and they have now recovered all of that and another 5%. And of course we have now recovered all of our losses.I really think any large declines in our market would have to be brought on AGAIN by HUGE losses in Asian markets.It does'nt feel like that's happening anytime soon. Does It? I watch the overnight foreign markets like probably everyone else here and looking for another overnight 5 or 10% loss to make put trades easy again but I think that was a lucky break. Now the whole world is on a roll and that could last for a while as history shows us.So whether the fed is pumping the markets with free money and liquidity or this rallying to new highs is for real right now ,IT REALLY DOES'NT MATTER.IT's Happening.

Anonymous said...

Just remember, once everyone becomes a bull, the crash will come. I think we're getting closer to that daily.

Jeff said...

The Lemmings have yet to enter this Mkt...see volume

Northvan said...

Tim,

You may be responding too quickly when you say that nothing would make you bullish. Sure, there will always be short plays available, but you are also influenced by the fundamentals. It makes a lot of sense to be a "permabear" when we are on the verge of a sharp correction (re: liquidity bubble and carry trade). It makes even more sense if we enter a long-term bear market for stocks (15 years anyone?). But towards the end of the market, you could be making some very bullish plays. Your insight apears to transcend the ideology.

Bob K said...

I play the long side, but I'm not a bull. Tim, you're a short player, but not a bear.

Bulls and bears are the little voices inside us, persuading us what will happen next.

The market is as rational as imaginary voices in one's head.

Anonymous said...

Tim, don't loose heart, its always rough being a contrarian. days like these can be especially though but i'm sure you will get your pull back soon. none of us have a 100% track record, i don't think we expect all your picks to work either.

on a serious note how can you expect the markets to crash when the GDP of every country is still expanding. the rate of change is decreasing, but its still positive. wouldn't there have to be a negative forecast for people to even start thinking of a recession. Every country that I know of has a positive growth forecast (well except maybe Zimbabwe).

we all know about economic cycles and the impending recession, but doesn't timing count. as far as i can see, i don't see a recession this year so why sit on the short side for this year?

- A

Anonymous said...

The bulls will are KILL the 16 may.They in this date will think in the suicide financier.JAJAJA.
16 MAY 16 MAY 16 MAY.

Anonymous said...

you just seem like a stubborn kid tim

Anonymous said...

Tim, for those of us keeping score at home, please explain how you had no position in MWP as of last weekend but yesterday reported that your short position in MWP is doing well. Thx.

Anonymous said...

Tim,

I do not believe (X) US Steel to be overbought for the following reason. Steel companies had accounting issues, and built up a LIFO layer of inventory (super cheap inventory on books, but worth a ton in market at current high prices). This was discovered in Aug 2006 by a few analysts and told to premier clients, and was realeased to public in Feb. The buying is a result of realizing they were tremendously undervalued.

Tim Knight said...

"Tim, for those of us keeping score at home, please explain how you had no position in MWP as of last weekend but yesterday reported that your short position in MWP is doing well. Thx."

The above seems to imply that I report every trade I do, and it insinuates that I am reporting a position either fictitiously or ex post facto.

None of these is true. I have a lot of positions, only a few of which I mention. I was short MWP, and I notied its tight trading range not long ago. And it's certainly not like I'm bragging. The stock is inching down a touch.

Now, if I said I had YHOO puts, that would be a lie. I don't. But I wish I did!

gary said...

If there actually was a PPT how in the world did the nasdaq go from 5000-1100? Just watch the COT report folks. The market for most part is the commercial longs battling the commercial shorts. When the edge swings a little to far to the short side we usually get a decline, when its long the market rises. Its as simple as that. They are long right now. Don't fight the big money!!!

Market Speculator said...

I'd love to take your challenge!!!

However this isn't the envrionment to go long...there aren't that many growth stocks out there ready to make large runs...

HLTH
ALGT

Are a few I like but ALGT needs to breakout.

My two cents...

Stocks can go to 0 but stocks can go to an infinite price...

But, this rally is so unsupported by institutional investors...they are just bidding up stocks to unload them.

Anonymous said...

wtf, cant even get a simple down day. This market is soo damn manipulated its not even funny.


Look at the DOW, after rising 12 out of 13 Fu$king days its only down 7 points. WTF is wrong with this picture. I CANT WAIT FOR THE NEXT CORRECTION. Every bull will be in fu#cking dreamland when they realize that buying the DIP will not work.

Market should be green by 12. Im telling you.

TradeItLikeItIs said...

There are Bull Campaigns and Bear Campaigns. These are decided by the Insiders. Who are the insiders? The insiders are the ones who are the controllers and owners of most of the capital.

Now the signs of a Bull campaign begin with the market bottoming when everyone thinks it should be falling (Mar 13).

Next the market moves up. The slighest bit of news is distorted to be positive (for example INTC misses, gives crappy forecast -but margins improved by 1%!!)

In the final move everyone recognizes the market is moving up and joins in. The Bull campaign then ends.

This concludes todays lesson.

TradeItLikeItIs

Market Speculator said...

it was green around 11!

LOL

Anonymous said...

where do we go from here?

Dow 13000 or 10000??????

This is one amazing market.

Tim Knight said...

"If there actually was a PPT how in the world did the nasdaq go from 5000-1100?"

No kidding.

As "victimized" as I feel sometimes, I never fall for the cheap excuse of some Evil Outside Force controlling everything.

The only "evil outside force" is the fact that human nature drives most people to buy, sheep-like. Things TEND to grow. So markets TEND to go up.

But I'm not about to blame my troubles on some smoke-filled room. Leave that kind of stuff to Mulder and Sculley.

gary said...

TradeItLikeItIs,
So true. Face it folks we are in a final phase of a bull where the market is trading on emotion. Buying begets buying. Don't try to fight it. learn the lesson from 1999. There will come another bear market just have the patience to wait for it.

TradeItLikeItIs said...

"where do we go from here?

Dow 13000 or 10000??????"

Dow means little.
Watch the S&P.

My guess is the insiders are arranging a take down to kill the greed in the emerging markets and commodities. It has reached the point where continued speculation in these areas will damage the 'real' economy.

They wish to achieve this with little damage to the US indices - so they must push the US indices up first because there is no one to distribute to now.

The question is - will the S&P500 be busted through its 2000 high first - before this take down?

This to me is the key thing to watch. It would be logical to assume that 'they' will keep inching the market up another 60-70 points over the next month.

A break through the 2000 highs on the S&P500 would be akin to last Mays new high fakeout on the DOW.

CNBC is back running their little 'New High' Graphics again - so this is the game - don't forget to sell when the trumpets are blaring.

After that the sell signal will be obvious - and everyone including the shoe shine boy will know the market is going down.

At that point Tim will be in his 'element' and there will be over 200 posts a day to his blog all saying 'I told you So.'

TradeItLikeItis

Anonymous said...

13 up days out of 14, I have never seen this.

Anonymous said...

tighten up thosee stops tim, this market is a bear killer and already cost me over 10k shorting based on some your shorty picks...i went long today with my smart money...why short when the bulls are rakin in the money.

Anonymous said...

The Plunge Protection Team was started in 1988 during the Reagan years. Too bad bulls cannot handle the stock market without help. It is a real practice in the market. Look it up on Google.

Yogi

Anonymous said...

Tim,
Enjoy your blog. Don't lose faith in your tools until they prove false over an entire cycle.

Calling tops is tough. Better to wait for the first 4-5% down and then get on board -- unless, of course, the downleg happens so fast and so violently that you cant get good entry points. Which may be the case this time.

TradeItLikeItIs said...

The myth about a PPT supporting the market is probably doing more to drive the market higher than any PPT intervention itself.

The only day I suspect the PPT may have been at work was the day the DOW went down 500 points or so a short while back - and even then maybe not.

I would suspect the PPT would only operate in extreme cases or in cases of Terrorism.

IMO these sudden rallies that people are attributing to the PPT are just Bear Raids and other trading games being played by the Money Centres - after all they are hard up for money since no one is taking out many mortages or business loans - so they must push takeovers and play trading games.

Their game today is obvious - kill all those shorting Semi's and ram that DOW Transport to a new high to confirm their Bull Campaign.

I also find it strange that someone who believes in a PPT supporting the market would be shorting against it - this would be like shooting yourself in the head.

People are blaming some invisible hand for their own bad trading decisions - you must take responsibility for your trades.

The only things IMO that are truly controlled are the prices of Gold and oil. Gold because it has a history of being used as money - and Central banks want to discourage this - and Oil because
it has geopolitical connections.

I also suspect that various players have been trying to corner the markets in metals and uranium -so it is possible that these markets will soon become controlled by the same interests controlling Gold and Oil.

TradeItLikeItIs

Anonymous said...

FUCK THESE FUCKING MANIPULATED MARKETS.

HOW MANY TIMES CAN IT GO UP, TODAY WOULD MAKE IT 13 FOR 14.


As tim said yesterday its up 20 out of 24 days. Can someone tell me what is going on. IS it the PPT, is it the private equity buyouts, is it the derivatives market, what the fuck is keeping this market from dropping. Seriously, CNBC should do a damn segment on how the fucking market doesnt go down. Fuck this market and fuck every bull.

Anonymous said...

12800

New high.

Where is celebration??????????????????????

Anonymous said...

Tim said

Out of the past 24 trading days, the Dow Jones has been up 20 of them. The market has been on a basically unstoppable rise since July of last year.

now you can make it 21 out of 25 or 13 out of 14

Is this going to be a double top for the dow. I hope so. just crash dow, just crash and die.

Anonymous said...

and die and die and die

Anonymous said...

yes, 13 out of 14

21 out of 25...

guess what, yep new intraday highs. Please anybody, tell me what is going on. This is just UNREAL. Brazil is at a new high, their market is closing in on 50,000. That market hasnt stopped either.

Dow has gone from 12300 to 12800, 500 point gain in 14 trading days.

I Cant wait for the next sell off.

Things I think are pushing the dow to record highs


PPT
Fed pumping market with plenty of cash
Liquidity EVERYWHERE YOU LOOK
Derivative market

Market Speculator said...

is there a terrible need to swear...i guess so

anyone want to buy tulips?

Leisa said...

I find it surprising that the rails are strong. CSX is up because they reported pricing power on lower volumes. In a declining economic environment (I'm not speculating, but stating from their report) pricing power does not last very long.

CB said...

But, through all this, one has to ask oneself:

1. Why is tech diverging/lagging so badly? isn't $NDX where the speculative money wants to go 1st and foremost? so why is it unwilling to touch tech with a 40-ft pole; isn't tech the epitome of the economy of the new millenium? why are semis and telecomms and numerous net players struggling if there's all this CapEx and business growth going on?

2. How far down can the dollar go before the US economy gets maimed with inflation and foreign liquidity heads for the door? Remember: liquidity giveth, and liquidity taketh away.

If anything, my biggest concern amongst all of this is that the big picture is so clear, so obvious, that everybody has on the same trade(s) and are just pushing things a little higher...

Anonymous said...

13000 or 10000 ? Are you kidding ! Better be asking 13000 or 127000 .
Not a lot of downside potentil here.

Also : Tradeitlikeitis ,If you have a moment please ,what was the high print on the S&P 500 in 2000?

Thank You !

Anonymous said...

suck it shorty. lmfao.

Anonymous said...

new fucking intraday highs, it just doesnt stop.

Anonymous said...

The Waiting Game

OK, I've got a confession. All that stuff about the bulls being in control and the bears needing to hide in a cave? Deep down, I don't really believe it. I think the market has been living on borrowed time, and it's all going to blow up at some point. It's waiting for that "some point" which is exasperating. TK 5/08/06

tradeitlikeitis said...

My condolences to the bears.

Was the reference to the CNBC story about the market never going down true? If so this may not be so healthy for the Bulls from a psychological perspective.

The rails are running because 'they' want to make a new high for the Transports to send the message this is a Bull Campaign.

The high print for the S&P500 was

1552.87 on Mar 24th 2000

TradeItLikeItIs

Anonymous said...

What we need is OSAMA BIN LADEN story.

Only way.

Anonymous said...

WOW ! Thanks TRADEITLIKEITIS ! Thats quite a bit higher(S&P) than I thought and gives the chance for this rally to continue a pretty good argument .Right now I don't think a Bin Laden story would shake the market right now .All that kind of stuff is baked into the cake I think .

TradeItlikeItis said...

I have a trade setup on an index (make or break on daily) if anyone is interested. Canadian market. $TSX on prophet - have a look - either way its moving.

have fun with it

TradeitLikeItIs

Anonymous said...

"The rails are running because 'they' want to make a new high for the Transports to send the message this is a Bull Campaign."

and you would know this -how? Did the Transports confess?

Yogi

Anonymous said...

I think "some point" is here.

Anonymous said...

Tim,

Those are vicious bull comments. How about showing us what the bears have been saying?

And be careful about allowing NOTHING to change your mind. That makes you just as vicious.

- a supporter and a bear

Anonymous said...

74 comments about Tim's Blog, that is the highest I've seen. does that mean something? has the f*** DOW topped?

TradeItlikeItis said...

Yogi said

"The rails are running because 'they' want to make a new high for the Transports to send the message this is a Bull Campaign."

and you would know this -how? Did the Transports confess?

--

Ya - they did confess - when rail stocks go running up 10-15% just because Warren Buffet bought - its b.s - 'they' are running them up. They got a big placard on them that says 'Buy Me'

The market's giving signs all the time - lately pretty obvious.

TradeitLikeItis

Anonymous said...

Obvious to me but you have not a clue.

Yogi

bizinsider (Dave) said...

Tim,

Why did you delete my comment? I didn't swear or say anything negative but anyone.

I don't get it. What's the problem?

-Dave