Monday, April 02, 2007

Charts and Stops

Today was a bore. I really have nothing to add to my general market analysis.

For lack of anything new to say about the market in general, a little something different - - I am going to show you the charts of the positions currently in my portfolio as well as the stop price I have established.

Two things to keep in mind: first, you can click on any chart to see its larger version (or, if you prefer, right-click on it to put the larger graphic into a new browser tab). Second, the stop prices reflect the price above which the position would be closed. For example, the stop price on my Russell 2000 position is 811.05, which means if a price of 811.06 is reached, the position will be closed out immediately at the market price.

I hope you find these charts thought-provoking......keep in mind, every one of these positions is either a long put or a short equity position. I will let the charts speak for themselves. I offer the stop prices as an indication of my own analysis. The decisions on any of these, of course, are utterly yours to make.

Russell 2000 ($RUT). Stop price: 811.05


Apple Computer (AAPL) Stop price:96.83


American Home Mortgage (AHM) Stop price: 27.87


akam 53.36


Acuity Brands (AYI) Stop price: 55.70


AutoZone (AZO) Stop price: 129.49


Boeing (BA) Stop price: 91.87


Bank of America (BAC) Stop price: 52.15


Black and Decker (BDK) Stop price: 85.29


Franklin Resources (BEN) Stop price: 123.41


Continental Airlines (CAL) Stop price: 40.55


Seacor Holdings(CKH) Stop price: 103.31


Carpenter Technology (CRS) Stop price: 125.65


Chevron (CVX) Stop price: 75.66


Diamond Trust (DIA) Stop price: 125.01


Diamond Offshore (DO) Stop price: 83.78


Fomento (FMX) Stop price: 116.37


Goldman Sachs (GS) Stop price: 212.66


Hilton (HLT) Stop price: 37.78


Lockheed Martin (LMT) Stop price: 100.02


McDonalds (MCD) Stop price: 45.49


Martin Marietta (MLM) Stop price: 137.27


Microstrategy (MSTR) Stop price: 130.78


Noble (NBL) Stop price: 61.71


Oil Services Trust (OIH) Stop price: 150.75


PS Business Parks (PSB) Stop price: 74.14


Reynolds (RAI) Stop price: 64.50


Research in Motion (RIMM) Stop price: 147.05


Sears Holding (SHLD) Stop price: 189.97


Uniao de Bancos Brasileiros (UBB) Stop price: 91.16


Vulcan Materials (VMC) Stop price: 121.26

36 comments:

Anonymous said...

no longer short CME?

Anonymous said...

very acurate stop loss. thx.

Tim Knight said...

No, I took my profits on CME before it started climbing recently; I don't like it much as a short right now.

Anonymous said...

Any opinino on X?

You suggest before.

thank in advance

Anonymous said...

A number of these stocks have bullish looking charts (longer term), so are you saying you're hugely into the short side/puts because you expect all these to revert to their trendlines at the same time?

Tim Knight said...

Yes, they are bullish looking long term; no surprise given the big rise from July until mid-February. Reverting to the trendline is the least of my hopes - breaking it would be better. But the stops are relatively tight and therefore relatively low-risk.

TOMTHETRADER said...

Hey Tim ,

Tremendous charting and the 1% down I predicted the Bulls would get was achieved last week and as we all watch the GREEN appear it looks as if the markets may knock out the BEARS for awhile again as an intermediate term advance has begun. Barring any crisis or new war I believe we will hit new highs again by Memorial Day and I hope that it actually narrows some to prove that it may be the last leg as I have been telling my members for months. Buying puts on VIX could be a possible way of making some dough as we recommeded the May 10 calls back in December and the promptly doubled now we are recommeding the August 11 puts. The extremes reached in this correction were enough to get the 1000 points I had hoped for and now it is just the speed and froth that builds between now and the end. The book keeps me up at night ...have read it 2x and anyone who doesn't have a copy ...well you shouldn't be trading !!!


http://www.ttthedgefund.blogspot.com

Anonymous said...

What do you think of MLM as opposed to your VMC short?
Looks a little more overstretched technically and a little more expensive fundamentally.

ch7guy said...

Please Tim, Enough is enough! No more christian clowns. End the torture. Its Unbearable. But umm yeah i think were working off that oversold level, for a further advance down. I find it interesting the market stopped advance right at the .618 retracement level. Fibs continue to amaze. Talking breadth, over at Elliot wave, they pointed out how we reached new A/D highs along with a lower high in price. Pretty much negates the much discussed record A/D day levels im my mind. All in all,
ooking good for bears. Im looking forward to OE week.

Tim Knight said...

"Please Tim, Enough is enough! No more christian clowns. End the torture."

I did! No videos. No funny pictures. No nothin'. Just charts.

Hell, I've even opened up comments to anonymous people again.

Anonymous said...

The only problem about all these charts is the primary trend is headed up and you will likely be stopped out with loss .

charley

wattson7 said...

Tim, You have some great plays here. I made a killing the last time you did this. Most of these picks are hanging on the downside edge of the MACD.. Despite what others are saying you know your business.. Now hold on to them this time.

Anonymous said...

Are you short CHK or CKH? You have the name of Chesapeak but the chart of Seacor.
Great charts, thanks for posting.
I think we are setting up for a target rich environment in about a week.

hube

Dennis said...

Bulls are in denial now. Fundamentals are weakening. Housing is in a recession and business capital expenditure is down. This bodes ill for employemnt. I expect this market to break down any day now, maybe as early as tomorrow.

Rob said...

Tim,
Quick question on your stops. Do you set a one-triggers-other order for your puts so that you get the correlation between stock price and option price?

z-stock said...

I’m going to be up all night studying these leads....Thanx, Tim....
z-is back....

Anonymous said...

ttthedgefund, why do u have to suck it up to Tim in each of your comment. I think it is pretty clear that you comment here to get some publicity to your site.

Lets see how long the Anonymous comments will be allowed.

-Jim Cramer

zeus111 said...

If one thinks the market was a bore today then I would calll them a bear in denial. 2 to 1 positive breath and holding support at 1415and at the 38% fib line I would not exactly call it a bore. I wouldbe on the alert if I was heavily short at this point in time. This market could very well be working on an abc up formation with 1480 price target. Having said that Tim has some charts that i do like on the short side. BDK and AHM i like but thy may try to rally first before anything happens.

Tim Knight said...

Zeus111, I said bored, not complacent. I *AM* worried. It would be all-too-easy for the bulls to slash the bears' throats (again). So I'm always vigilant. Hence - - always have stops.

As for this question:

"Quick question on your stops. Do you set a one-triggers-other order for your puts so that you get the correlation between stock price and option price?"

I use a contingent order. If the stock (or index) price is crossed to the upside, bang, a market order goes out. Simple as that.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for opening up the anon posting again, Tim. I do not want to keep subscribing to these Google/Yahoo/etc. accounts all the time. Complete nonsense.

Anyways, I've been watching the markets basically do nothing for the past 5 months or so. Sure, if you're nimble you can make a quick buck here or there, but the trend hasn't been clear for a while. I'd pin it as bullish if anything, but the Chinese meltdown in Feb. had my heart beating for sure. I had my hopes up for a decline, but then I realized that basically nothing had changed. The liquidity is still flowing into the market like a typhoon and Bernanke The Dove is doing his best to keep the markets afloat by keeping the printing presses running at warp speed. My prediction is that he will achieve his soft landing by brute force. Sure, the economy might tank, but the markets won't. It's the special Bernanke version of the soft landing scenario. Free money for all!

I agree that these markets will go higher in the short term. Unless something dramatic happens to push them down (large increase in lending rates, war with Iran, Chinese markets tanking, etc.), then the markets will continue higher due to incoming liquidity. It's no big mystery how it's being done; the only REAL mystery is how long they can keep it going. And from where I sit, they can keep it going as long as they want to, quite frankly.

Bears will continue to be on the wrong side of the trade for quite a while. I wish I could say I'm making money, but I'm too unconvinced about the future of the economy to place any large bets right now. I'm content to take my 5% in fixed-income investments right now until the market directions are more clear.

-TonyB

Anonymous said...

great charts Tim as always

I am a bear like you, and this market continues to confound me every day. This week i expect a rally as always happens in short weeks. good luck and good stops

moneyfarm said...

Volume. Hi Tim. Thanks for being so open and posting your stops - I don't think many out there would dare to do so. I have been reading your blog for a while and noticed that you never post volume in your charts. Do you ever take volume into consideration when opening a position (short or long)?
Much Thanks.

Tim Knight said...

"Volume. Hi Tim. Thanks for being so open and posting your stops - I don't think many out there would dare to do so. I have been reading your blog for a while and noticed that you never post volume in your charts. Do you ever take volume into consideration when opening a position (short or long)?"

A couple of responses.

First, if the concern about stops would be that someone would "gun" for them, I'm not worried. It would take a huge amount of money to move the market above its natural point - - - it's not like these stocks trade 5,000 shares a day. So I'm not worried.

As for volume, nah, I don't really pay much attention to it on short positions except insofar as to make sure the stock is fairly well traded. I mean, sure, I peek at it when initially checking out the chart, but it's not that germane to my way of analysis.

Alok said...

Hi Tim, first time poster, i've been reading your blog for a long time. can't tell you how awesome today's post is. thanks for sharing your portfolio with us.

can you tell me why you shorted HLT, MLM, and NBL. they didn't seem to have broken any trend line, are you hoping to have picked the top here? TIA.

Tim Knight said...

"can you tell me why you shorted HLT, MLM, and NBL. they didn't seem to have broken any trend line, are you hoping to have picked the top here?"

HLT did break its trendline; quite some time ago. It's kissing the underside of its former supporting line now.

MLM, I admit, is more iffy. I am not crazy about this one. It's an aggressive play which will only work out well if the market is general gets soft.

As for NBL, it's at the highest range of a very substantial channel; so, again, it hasn't broken any trendline, but it is at a favorable risk/reward price point.

Anonymous said...

Bears are toast near term. It sure will be nice to watch you cover and add fuel to the buying.
But what about subprime, those 15 sailors, etc. etc. Gee, why didn't I think of that. The dumb money thinks its time to short and already is short. Get ready to climb that wall of worry! The downdraft back in Feb was the mother of all head fakes. Be long or be wrong!!

Alok said...

Thanks for the explanation Tim. All the best for today, looks like it might be a little rough for you, all the other mkts are green. - Alok

zeus111 said...

Futures up 44 . International markets up accross the board. Yen carry trade still alive with yen selling off against the dollar. It looks it will be a strong up day. It just doesnt pay being a bear. The odds are against you most of the time.

dh said...

Hi Tim, have to agree with you on GS, I read about their new building in NY on Bloomberg and in my experience any time a company puts up a new head office/building it usually marks the top for the stock.

Tim Knight said...

"Bears are toast near term. It sure will be nice to watch you cover and add fuel to the buying. "

MDE, the bet doesn't count if you just post as Anonymous.

beanie11111 said...

game over , shorties?

Anonymous said...

what else do you expect, when it is bleeding hard from the ass :-)

Anonymous said...

Every business I know is slowing down except Wallstreet whores.

However time is our bear side.

Dow to 9000

Anonymous said...

tim

if i were you i wouldn't worry about all the bull comments that don't offer any help/advice except to taunt you with hindsight. when the market turns and drops like Feb 26, you will see everyone fall in line to lick your ass like tomthetrader does everyday. the only problem is the wait for a drop may be long long long. anyway, as a bear, I am going to wait...

wattson7 said...

Me to Tim, I concur with the 9:13 am post.

Fuzz said...

Lunchtime whistle. $RUT, AYI, MLM, AZO, DIA shot to sheet. If I buy one Big Mac there goes MCD.
DOW 30 100% green. Peace love dove.