Wednesday, April 25, 2007

Another Barrier Falls

Well, it's history now. Dow 13,000 wasn't just crossed, it was blown off its feet. As I type this (impatiently waiting for a shuttle to pick me up at the Seattle airport....) the Dow is up over 100 points, and all the news sites are breathless with reports of the Dow's new high water mark.

I remain awestruck at the strength and consistency of this bull run. The bulls were right. The bears were wrong. I was wrong.

I have no idea how long this rally is going to last. I cannot, from a technical perspective, jump in with both feet into a market like this. Those who are in already, congratulations. As for myself, I can only take comfort from the handsome rise in the stock of my employer! Thank goodness for incentive options......


I'm about to do a speech to a group about ProphetCharts (with a shameless mention of my book about charting, naturally), so I'm not sure how late my post will be tonight. So if you're reading this after hours, my apologies - - - I will get to it once I have the time, but I'm traveling today. Thanks.

38 comments:

Ice said...

Hi Tim:

Reading your blog with great interest.

Knowing your favor for Fib's. Check out a Fib for the SPX on a 5 year daily (from oct 2002 till know).

Look's pretty.
For us the fun starts when this party end.


Regards
Ernst

Tim Knight said...

Ice,

What kind of Fib? Retracement? Time series? Arcs? Fans? What are your data points? I'm interested; thanks.

- Tim

Humble1 said...

now short @ DOW 13101.60 @ 3;34 EST

Why not????.........8-)

Chris said...

Playing a little devil's advocate with a Jun08 1450 straddle (SXG-FI/RI)

I'll bet the farm SPX will trend both of those into the money at some point over the next year.

Shorted ESM7 a few mins ago too...

plunger said...

z-stock - if you thought the first part was funny, Make sure you read yesterdays comment section for the continuation of the running feud between Jakey and I. It's good for a few more laughs & it's only getting better,

Leisa said...

Lift glasses. A toast to 13000 and then some. Clink, Clink, Clink.

NewEquity said...

Nutri and Apple both up over $9 AH. Good Luck holding back the 100 plus gain that starts again tomorrow.

TOMTHETRADER said...

TTT HEDGE FUND saw the cup and handle that was so prominent in Tim's book and helped us to the biggest one day profit since August. Thanks for the BOOK ..it is the best and I hope it works on the downside too.

TTT

Robert said...

Plunger-

Did you used to post in Dan Zanger's chat room a couple of years back? Loved GOOG NTES etc..

Cherry said...

Perhaps S&P must makes all time high also before we are going back down on significant correction.

NewEquity said...

should hit 14k on the dow by August.

plunger said...
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plunger said...

NewEquity said...
should hit 14k on the dow by August.


on what reasoning, just because it's the next round number? what is the basis for a thousand point gain from here? I'm no perma-bear but I'm wondering what your reasons are for that type of move?

Chris said...

Right in the 1494 +/- 2 is about the last trend range where you'd potentially have a channel top that could prompt a reversal on SPX.

If SPX heads 5+ points higher tomorrow on volume I'm a true believer that this has room to run.

The fundamentals behind this market are horrendous, but plummeting $, buyback frenzy, & liquidity are forcing this market up. I'd say unless the dollar reverses sharply or there is some sort of external shock, if we don't reverse right here you want to be agnostically & cautiously long this market

dachestmeister1 said...

u studdering fool.

cantdrive55 said...

I think it was in the movie WALLSTREET,and Gordon Gekko said:

"Jesus Christ ,if this guy owned a funeral parlor...no one would die "

tradertime said...
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plunger said...

I wanted to make sure you didn't miss these from the last comment section jakey so i'll repost em' here for you. That way you can retort as best you can,[ would'nt want you to miss these, they're a doozy]

plunger said...
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plunger said...
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plunger said...
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JakeGint said...

Plumber,

Geezus, I feel like Sally Field on Oscar Night... "you love me, you really love me, don't you??


Hey, thanks for the effort.

Don't quit the day job just yet, tho.
_______________

As for your query on APA... my play resulted from a combination of recent downgrades, and what looked like exhaustive topping in the stock yesterday (take a look at yesterdays five minute charts, for example... I shorted in the late afternoon ).

COP's good news did me in... something I should have anticipated, but was not following.

Turns out Bernie Schaeffer also believed there was a lot of people who thought the same I did, and who had shorted the stock in anticipation of earnings... COP goes the weasel and squeeeeze.

Be interesting to see what they announce tomorrow, there was still a lot of selling again this afternoon...

plunger said...

not real convincing volume on the dow for the gains today either

plunger said...

alright since you read em' already i'll take em off now if no good response is coming

plunger said...

they were funny tho, i don't care who you are...

NewEquity said...

tim,
I sure hope your millions are in a bank CD paying interest and not all in puts and shorts.

plunger said...

jakey sez,

"Geezus, I feel like Sally Field on Oscar Night... "you love me, you really love me, don't you??


Hey, thanks for the effort.

Don't quit the day job just yet, tho."



and the answer to your question would be no jake, I'm sorry I only like you as a friend. I just enjoy a good scrap once in awhile,

If your throwing in the towel..thanks for the sparring partner..It was a valiant effort

JakeGint said...

Never mind that... what do you think of APA... too much convincing volume today, or is it worth taking another shot at post earnings?

Still looked tired this afternoon after a heady morning.

JakeGint said...

Anyone notice where our friend Russ and his little brother IWorm closed today?

One hunnit pahcent re-trace-mentos.

What next, Triple T Tom Tom?

JakeGint said...

Oh schiesser, just realized I was looking at a weekly chart w/ regard to the above comment... on the daily I see IWorm even doji'd today... and on weakish volume, given the significance of the day...

Hmmmm....

JakeGint said...

But who'm I kidding? The Q'ster blew through it's retrace with conviction this week, and Crapple's already going gangbusters in AH.... and Mr. Q, he makes special pens for James Bond, and he leads the market...

Market Speculator said...

We are about to get a short squeeze...shaking out the weak shorts.

We are in the stage of "Sh*t I don't want to miss this rally buyers."

plunger said...

APA

volume was above average but not huge, but it had a nice retest of that breakout @ $74 last week and the gap up today was a little spooky, could be a run-away, but I haven't followed earnings so unsure about that aspect. only one real distribution day in the past few weeks is unsettling as well. rsi just went extreme for the first time this year, i dont use it for an oversold reading cause it can stay that way thru a rally, but i'd worry until broke back down. it is pretty well stretched above the 50 day MA tho. all BS aside, I hope it works out for you tho, .

plunger said...

jakeg..

that 5 minute APA chart yesterday you mention makes it look like a good play.. if it does break, oughta be nice fall.

you gotta better grasp of economic fundamentals than i do, I TA traded for the past few years and have been trying to learn the fundamental aspect the last year or so,...
I got long way to go on that but its paid me to listen up here sometimes,

Oneway said...

only 6.9% til Dow 14,000

plunger said...

jake

APA is well extended above its 50d mA, past says it don't like to be that far up too long, so you might get some reprieve there, or maybe a damn market correction would occur...........that would help,
I know how ya feel tho, i got racked on a housing short play last two days. finally got stopped out today

Geoff said...

Tim,
You made a great bullish call on SCHN on Monday, it's been up ever since. Unfortunately I didn't get in when I should have, now I'll have to wait for an entry. Maybe you should be a bull after all.

JakeGint said...

Plunger,

Thanks for your comments. Don't be as concerned about the fundies... really all I look at anymore is earnings momentum. You are right to pay much harder attention the chart, since that's where the market IS. Too much "should be" in fundy analysis, which can be great over the long term, but no place for a trader.