Thursday, August 31, 2006

Somnambulant

Holy God, will someone please make me up whenever everyone gets back from vacation? I haven't had a vacation in years. Where is everyone? This is nuts!

OK, rant over. The market, once again, puttered, farted, and lolligagged all day long. My twin-disc DVD set ("Grass Growing" and "Paint Drying") is providing excellent entertainment in lieu of the markets. I think all market commentators should get time off until Tuesday, September 6th. It's just not right!

I really have nothing new to say about the markets. If things don't start getting zippier, I'm going to have to start posting old baseball statistics. Here are just a few charts. The latest on the S&P 500...........which way will it go? Hopefully next week, the first post-summer trading, will yield an answer.


The oil services sector, which fell nicely yesterday, went up a touch today. We still need to break below 130 to make this exciting. I've put a rounded rectangle to indicate the space OIH needs to traverse to make this H&S pattern complete.


The VIX is still stuck in neutral. Complacency abounds.

95 comments:

Anonymous said...

Thanks, I enjoy your blog. Hope, to gain confidence in shorting stocks through this blog. Do you have desktop products like mousepad, bear with slogan, etc. to remind folks to short the stock rather than chasing long and losing $$?

Thanks again. Keep up the good work.

Tim Knight said...

A mousepad? Of course! C'mon, check out the cool Technically Speaking store! http://www.cafepress.com/tradertim

Anonymous said...

Hi Tim, looks like we are stuck in a diagonal in the S%P and the Dow, we need one last push up, and your oil services sector looks like it will have to go up in the morning before it falls to at least 136.95. But it could climb to almost 142 before it falls, so watch your steps, excellent blogs though, very impressed by your wit, and style! I appreciate your time, and good heart to help all of us, keep up the good work and have a woderful Labor day!. Faithful follower!

NO DooDahs said...

Here's a DVD suggestion for you ... "sleeping bear." How many higher highs and higher lows do you need to see? What's the August return on the various indices?

Sorry, I was channelling Hurricane 5 for a moment there ...

kimberlysgarden said...

Does anyone have any suggestions for the definitive book on technical analysis?

Mark said...

Tim, notice that your traffic has really dropped off, at least in the comments section anyway.

I'm puttering around in the for-ex for some action. Capturing pips sounds like fun! Two days this week I captured 170 in a demo account. It should have been 200, but I was sleep-clicking and lost 35. Gotta be awake for the 4x!

Anonymous said...

I'm scared of how far up this market has risen lately. Will cover shorts at market open for large losses...s^*@.

niko said...

Kimberley's garden,

The standard text for technical analysis (which some people will diepute, wrongly of course) is "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" which last I heard was in it's 8th edition, but may be in it's ninth by now. It's written by Edwards and Magee.

Excellent and text book like i'm afraid. The first edition was in the 40's I think. This is the foundation upon which all else is built...

Anonymous said...

anon 5:02,

you are not alone brother.

Anonymous said...

I agree with 5:02 and 5:11. I covered my short positions today in fear of the potential for the old "bad news is good news" rally tomorrow.

Once we see some clearer direction, I'll re-establish the short positions. Because let's face facts, the markets cannot possibly hold out for much longer under these economic conditions. Sooner or later, the big boys will start to realize what's going on and start heading for the exits. It just hasn't happened yet.

Once again, I'm on the sidelines waiting for the signals to line up. Took my lumps like a man during this last manufactured runup, but at least I saved the majority of my trading capital, and that's the main thing to keep in mind.

Live to fight another day.

-Tony

Anonymous said...

Tony,

why not buy some Jan 07 or later puts?

joe

Tim Knight said...

I just finished my book on charting which will be published in February. Required reading for all my blog readers!

Yes, comment traffic has dropped off, but blog traffic has not. I just think some of the silly wars going on died a natural death.

I tried FOREX. Didn't like it for reasons to long to explain here.

Anonymous said...

5:02, 5:11 and TONY!!!

You guys are getting me worried. Im holding a huge position of SDS and QID in my portfolio. Im going to be extremely patient with these holdings. I owned QLD when the market was dropping like a rock and if i held it up until today i would have had some really really nice gains. So im going to be really patient with QID and SDS, ride out the run up and wait for the DROPPPPPPPPP!!!!!


tomorrow those job numbers could really move the markets. Bad news is good, that my friends can only last so long. Eventually bad news will catch up with the markets and bad news will be BAD NEWS.

As i said earlier if were in line with employment numbers the market may move higher.

anything below 75,000 and anything above 185,000 could tank these markets!!!!!


Trader 2006.

Anonymous said...

The problem with the jobs numbers is that it would take quite a LARGE deviation from the consensus to cause a selloff. I mean, the number itself just isn't that powerful.

But on the flipside, if the numbers are in-line or slightly to the "good" side, then the sellers will once again step aside and let the bulls run up the markets.

Trader 2006: I'm not panicking, but I'm just sick of seeing that 0.5-1.0% decline in my DXD and SDS holdings every single day. It's starting to piss me off. I tried to be patient, but the irrationality of the bulls has gotten the better of me. But now that I've unloaded them, it's almost a guarantee that the markets will take a dump tomorrow. That's typically what happens.

Anyways, it just seems that "They" are really doing everything they can to keep the markets afloat. I've watched attempted selloffs get bought into heavily over the last few weeks and don't expect that will change anytime soon.

If the markets' reaction to tomorrow's numbers are anything like the PPI and CPI figures, then look out above. Honestly, the sellers have just plain stopped selling. I've seen some charts on institutional activity and you can see that the selling activity has basically gone vertically downward.

My expectation is that the numbers will be in-line tomorrow. The talking heads will paint that as a good sign, because there isn't a downward surprise. You'll start hearing more talk of a "soft landing" and the markets will once again drift upwards on thin trading volume tomorrow going into the long weekend.

We'll see soon enough.

-Tony

Anonymous said...

Just as a follow-up to my last post: the institutional selling activity is currently at the lowest point since January of 2006.

That's simply amazing. And it goes a long way to explaining why we're seeing the markets just continue higher and higher lately: because even though there's a reduced demand for stocks lately, there's a BIGGER lack of supply.

-Tony

Anonymous said...

Not so sure if the majority of readers here are truly traders or just active investors. Two totally different objectives and strategies. If you’re holding positions for weeks to months I wouldn't necessarily call you a trader. Some of the charts shown on this blog may pertain to a position that is sold if not established in one or two days.
Big talk about the job numbers tomorrow and no talk of setting up positions for ANY move. Straddles, Strangles, etc...Granted the last two weeks have had no movement aside from two big days but traders need to trade the market and not their emotions.
A few weeks back someone questioned Tim on having 200 positions. Two days later I think he was down to 50. He's a trader and if his holdings didn't work, he TRADED them. If Stop Loss isn't in your regular vocabulary you may be doing yourself a great injustice by reading trading blogs. Trading the jobs report with puts today is short term, trading a possible recession in 07 from the housing bubble is not the same thing and should not be confused.
I realize most people will think this is coming out of left field but it's an observation I've made over the past weeks regarding this INEVITABLE crash.

J

prosperingbear said...

The chart shows a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement: this is an Elliot Wave 2 Up having completed a Elliot Wave 1 Down at 1223 on 6-13-2006.

Thus what is going to shortly occur, is an Elliot Wave 3 Down which is the most breath-taking of Elliot Waves: it carries with it Economic Shock And Awe

The coming bear market will be unlike any other: I present the details in my article The Ides Of May 2006 : The Pivot Point Of Global Financial Meltdown which relates that this wave three down will bring forth an 'Age of Hyperinflation and Financial Ruin' as well as 'An Age of Tyranny' which will be inaugurated when President George Bush responds to a continental wide emergency, the type of which was referred to in the Cancun Summit Leaders' Joint Statement

Best To All
Prosperingbear
http://tinyurl.com/r7yqe

Chronictown said...

Prosperingbear, that,my friend, is a hard act to follow! Best to all Chris

downosedive said...

Tony - my sentiments exactly!

Anonymous said...

Actually, Tim, Tuesday is September 5th (& monday is 4th - the Labor Day). Just a little correction.

R.

Anonymous said...

Good post. Hope there is a book coming out!

Another boring day, lost capital sitting on the sidelines . . . hoping another 20 point run so the fall is greater (just kidding, not really). Wish I understood why all the low volume buys. The action is just non-existant.

Serious question: CME had a HUGE volume distribution a couple weeks ago. The chart pattern seems to be confirming a breakdown (double / triple top, recent lower low). Personally anticipating those who entered early to take some profits on the bouces. Any thoughts?

Gemma Starr said...

J and Prospering Bear,

Thank you for your contributions, which this newbie found helpful and useful.

GS

Anonymous said...

Jobs report as expected. No bad news, so the futures are up.

Not good for the bears. The markets should continue higher today. I just think there are way too many people out there who think that the "official" lows were put in place in June. They're not waiting for September or October for new lows. They think it's just upwards and onwards from here on in.

And they might be right. It's 1995 all over again.

-Tony

Anonymous said...

In the last 15 trading days (including today, that's 3 straight weeks), we have seen 13 days of either UP or HOLD movement in the S&P, and only 2 days of DOWN movement.

That's simply incredible.

costas1966 said...

Tony,
what you are saying will depend on how we get up in the highs. For the market to get going to the upside it needs to take the 1324 on volume and the breath must consistently stay positiver. So far to me it just looks like a retest of the highs on lighter volume and a possible doulbe top. Lets see what happens. I am very hesitant here to hold any longs more that a day we are just 1.25% away from the resisstance.

Anonymous said...

I got a sell signal today. Picked up more PUTS today.

The Trader II

Anonymous said...

this is hurricane5 --- I told you fools to BUY this market, no one would listen! But keep buying 'cause there is so much to be positive about (can't go into details, but read the papers)

downosedive said...

Tony - another spot on comment. Others talk of resistance levels and volume etc. but that all seems to count for nothing. This market is continually trending up, but slowly. Thats the worse type, because it means everyone gets more confident because its a gradual process and so it feeds on itself and becaomes a self fulfilling prophecy. Im afraid the bears are dead. Stone dead. There will be no fall. Not Sept, not Oct, not this year and who knows maybe not next year. Ive lost a fortune betting down and I have to admit - I was wrong all the time

Anonymous said...

Oh, don't get me wrong. I still absolutely HATE this market. It just seems so weak that it's poised to fall at any moment. The problem is that it's just NOT FALLING.

Every piece of data that comes out seems to strengthen the bullish case. For better or worse, people have to admit that even though the economic outlook is gloomy, the Fed seems to have engineered a soft landing, at least for now.

And that's all people care about -- how things are doing right now. Until the market starts producing some significant distribution days, it will just keep continuing higher and every dip will be bought.

-Tony

downosedive said...

My previous post referred only to indices and in particular the DJA. I should have known better than to mess with the DJA

downosedive said...

And before anyone has a go, think on yourselves......how long ago were all the posts saying that the 11000 would not be breached and held. And when it was, so another level of resistance was truddled out and then another and another and another and another etc etc, graphs were mentioned, MACD, MA, styrochastics, volume etc, none that held water for a downturn. The case is blown away, above DJA 12000 is the only true stumbling block

Anonymous said...

"The standard text for technical analysis (which some people will diepute, wrongly of course) is "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" which last I heard was in it's 8th edition"

Yes, this is THE book to get. It is a textbook, and dense reading. The charts are old, and require careful perusing. AVOID the 8th edition like the plague. The editor for this edition was extremely intrusive and annoying(read the Amazon reviews for the 8th for other problems with it). Go for the 7th, if you can find it. Wish I had.

Nasdaq just hit 50% retracement (fibs) level. Inverse H and S, so expect some downside and chop for a few days. How it copes with this will be an indication of market strength (or lack thereof.)

Anonymous said...

" but read the papers"

You got to be kidding. It's bad enough folks trade the news from the internet. This fool trade news read from a NEWSPAPER!!!

The Trader II

Anonymous said...

Wow, the same folks that were flaming me for going long 3 weeks ago are now fulling on the bull camp. Something to think about.

The Trader II

costas1966 said...

"Im afraid the bears are dead. Stone dead. There will be no fall. Not Sept, not Oct, not this year and who knows maybe not next year. Ive lost a fortune betting down and I have to admit - I was wrong all the time"

Sound like capitulation to me.

Anonymous said...

"Im afraid the bears are dead. Stone dead. There will be no fall. Not Sept, not Oct, not this year and who knows maybe not next year. Ive lost a fortune betting down and I have to admit - I was wrong all the time"

Again, to be successfull in this market you have to trade both ways. The media makes it out that you have to be on one side (Bear or Bull). Learn to Phuck the media and listen to your trading system. If you don't have one, then don't trade. Very few traders out there can make a living on one side, and majority usually go broke by the time they realize what they have done wrong.

I picked up more DIA puts this morning and shorted December YM and ES.

Lots of luck.

The Trader II

Sanjay Sola said...

what time does the market close today? i'm shorting at the close.

Anonymous said...

What we really need to see next week is significant distribution. Not just downward-drifting consolidation, but REAL distribution.

Until then, I can't imagine anyone wanting to take out shorts right now. It just doesn't make sense to buck the trend. And the trend is unmistakably upwards.

marhattan said...

Wow, i thought i was a conspiracist thinking the banks were trying to make up for their losses by throwing their weight around in the market, but properingbear, you clearly are advocating taking the conspiracy to a whole new level... =}

Also, to those that had asked before, FYI: I've dumped the futures as an indicator... They've been crap over the last few weeks... So, new strategy that doesn't consult the futures... =)

Michael said...

Did my IBD scan this morning. WNR,PTR, and DNR looked the most promising. Bought some PTR at 110.49. ATR is 2.06 so my trailing stop is 3.09 below my entry. Shoulda bought some OIH at 133-134 but I don't like to tie up that much in a capital (100 share lots I believe plus the P&F still shows a 122 downside target).

Started charting Nasdaq against the VXN. Don't know how to do on Prophet but on Stockcharts, it's $nasdaq:$vxn. Shows the Naz is at 65 RSI so it looks to me that it could rally a bit more. Weekly is at 52. That early July low shows up as a great buying opportunity.

Time is better spent reviewing charts for buying AND selling opportunities than railing about the mkts.

bsi87

PB said...

The 'big boys' are holding this market up, waiting to unload it unto the 'retail suckers' ... but the poor retail guy is not stepping up, as he is having trouble making mortgage payments ... Wall street will have to 'eat' this one. Not gonna be pretty

PB said...

Trader II --- how far out are your DIA puts?

costas1966 said...

short idea: AHM: mortgage lender that came down on heavy volume from the top and just finished a reaction to the trend down.

Fundamentals are with you on this stock too cfc,hrb lend all guided lower for next qaurter with terific misses.

downosedive said...

Trader 11 - yes indeed, never be a bull or bear. But before and during this rally with all the bad news, can you blame a gut reaction to be a bear?
costas - not quite capitulation, but very close. More a finally sigh of defeat. I still cant come to terms with what has happened to me either

downosedive said...

Trader 11 - yes indeed, never be a bull or bear. But before and during this rally with all the bad news, can you blame a gut reaction to be a bear?
costas - not quite capitulation, but very close. More a finally sigh of defeat. I still cant come to terms with what has happened to me either

costas1966 said...

PB I agree with you. It feels that all is left in the market is the professionals chasing trends based short term timing models. I don't see the consistent influx of new money coming into the market with volume expanding as the prices move higer, which is by the way the ingredients of a bull market.
This is a bunch of traders killing each other trying to steal each other's money.

Anonymous said...

PB,
October and December.

The Trader II

PB said...

downosedive --- too bad to see you losing, but if you hv any money left, DEC puts shd pay off handsomely. Do you really think we are entering a four month long rally here??

costas1966 said...

Print the chart of the S&P 500 for
the last year. Take the paper turn it to the other side and and upside down and point it against the light so you can see through what is in the other side. Do you see the formation? I see it. It is a double bottom formation which I would buy into the retest of the first bottom with a stop right beneath it. Therefore a sell.

Anonymous said...

130,000 was the consensus, 128,000 new jobs. hmmmm, seems to perfect dont you think. Seems inflation has disappeared and oil is headed to 35 a barrel. Im seeing gas below $3.00 now. This should keep the consumer spending and the economy rolling along like nothing is wrong.



guy on cnbc said there is an 85% guarantee of making 8% or more in the stock market vs a 100% guarantee with 4 or 5% in CDs and money markets....

These money managers are too funny, everyone is getting extremely bullish again. I dont know. Im staying on the short side, I dont care. I read that 30% of the work force was created during the housing boom. Now what happens when the housing boom goes bust like its happening now. Where do those millions of workers go. Its not going to be a soft landing.

IF anyone gets the time, read some articles written by Peter Schiff, i mentioned it before on here. His articles are 101% on the money.



Trader 2006

Anonymous said...

im feeling some bears in here turning bullish.

Trader 2006 is still BEARISHHHHH!!!!


Trader 2006

costas1966 said...

trader 2006 can you post some links on Peter Schiff?

EddieFl said...

Another good up day, with decent volume for the summer doldrums.

Another up day and another 50 posts in here on why we shouldnt be higher and cant beleive what we see.!!!

You guys would of been a wetdream audience for Houdini, not beleiving what you see, but beleiving what you here and read...

How about an up rally from 06/12/2006, and still heading higher as of today, is that so hard to believe and see.!!!!

Trade what is, not what you think should be.--- Ed Seykota.

costas1966 said...

eddie what do you see and beleive.

Throw some ideas. That is what we need in this board we need to exchange some trading ideas

Anonymous said...

Posted Friday, 25 August 2006



During the unprecedented run up in housing prices over the last decade, most economists and real estate professionals firmly declared that the market would always move higher. When the recent cooling dashed those hopes, many reluctantly fell back to the “soft landing” hypothesis, which predicts that price appreciation will return to historically average rates. However the latest housing data, particularly this week’s figures on new and existing home sales, have made these overly rosy assumptions untenable. The “hard landing” scenario, which envisions real estate prices moving sideways, or actually posting moderate declines, is finally gaining broader credence. But, even this forecast will prove overly optimistic. The real estate market will not land soft or hard, it will crash and burn. Those who did not have the foresight to bail out may be faced with a distinct shortage of parachutes.



The glut of homes on the market, the highest level since 1993, doesn’t even begin to tell the story. Homes were far more affordable back in 1993 than they are today, and there were significantly more renters (who had not yet entered the market) who could potentially buy them. Today, home affordability is at an all time low, and just about anybody who could buy one already has. For those who think the inventory of unsold homes is high now, you ain’t seen nothing yet.



Consider these factors. There are a record number of new homes currently under construction. Real estate speculators who bought solely on the anticipation of rising prices will likely try to unload their properties now that the market has turned. With higher short-term interest rates, those who financed with ARMs will also try to sell their homes to get out from under mortgage payments they can no longer afford to make. A record number of Americans who bought second homes, or vacation properties, will likely reassess the wisdom of those purchases, and put these properties back on the market as well. Finally, homeowners who watched the values of their homes rise for years, but were reluctant to sell them for fear of missing out on even bigger gains, will rush to cash in before all that paper profit disappears.



This raises two pertinent questions. First, where will all the buyers come from to absorb this supply and second, at what terms will lenders be willing to finance these purchases? When prices were rising everyone wanted to buy, no one wanted to sell, and lenders were willing to finance just about any transaction. As a result, there was a “shortage” of homes for sale, a surplus of buyers, and prices rose accordingly. As prices begin to decline, few will want to buy, many will want to sell, and gun-shy lenders will be reluctant to finance all but the most secure transaction. As a result, the “shortage” will become a glut, and prices will collapse.



The glut of homes on the market indicates just how overpriced real estate has become. By next year just about every house in America would be for sale if the owners thought they could sell at today’s prices. It is impossible to clear the market at current price levels. The only solution is for prices to plunge. Lower prices will result in fewer homeowners wanting to sell, more potential homebuyers able to buy, and lenders willing to finance the purchases.



Trader 2006

Anonymous said...

Interview on Bloomberg, approx 6 minutes. This guy is on the MONEY!!!!



http://www.europac.net/Schiff-Bloomberg-8-23-06_lg.asp


Trader 2006

Anonymous said...

There is another interview of him on cnbc, it hasnt been posted yet, once it is ill post it here.

Dow at 11444. ouch.....nasdaq 2193.

Nasdaq at 3 month highs....

Seems like i forgot what a down day looks like. Anyone think we get a straight run to 11700++ or do we see a pullback to 11175-11250 area before breaking to new highs???


Trader 2006

smallswinger said...

On 8/28 my Small Cap Swing Indicator truncated the SHORT signal and moved to a LONG signal.

Here are the recent values of the current LONG signal.

. . . . . .Small
. . . . . . Cap . . . .Russell
. . . . . .Swing . . . 2000
Date . . . Ind . . . .% Chg

08/28 . . +05 . . . +1.1%
08/29 . . +23 . . . +1.2%
08/30 . . +39 . . . +0.8%
08/31 . . +48 . . . +0.0%
09/01 . . +55 . . . +0.3% . . . Intraday @ 12:00 noon EDT)

Normal target for LONG: . . +65 to +75
Normal target for SHORT. . -65 to -75

With the previous SHORT signal being truncated this LONG signal will likely be truncated as well, possibly somewhere in the +50’s.

Personally, I don't trust this LONG signal and am VERY reluctant to go LONG. I'm waiting until September 5th or 6th before I change any positions to LONG.

Anonymous said...

ford sales down 14.8%
truck sales down over 20%.

Look what DCX is doing to move cars:

DaimlerChrysler AG's Chrysler Group is bringing back zero percent financing for 72 months on most 2006 models in an effort to clear lots for 2007 cars and trucks.


Trader 2006

downosedive said...

pb - yes a 4 month rally and more. Im tempting fate by stating this, Ijust need the balls to actually go long and not just talk the talk like many here. I put my money where my mouth is but so far my mouth has in fact has changed place with another part of my body, if you get my drift. Will there ever be a time when things go the way I think?

PB said...

I am now FULLY BULLISH! --- how can we ignore the price action? Bad news, good news, it's all the same, a slow upward drift. We are invincible, nothing can take this market down! See you at DOW 20,000!

Anonymous said...

Ugh, sold my TIE puts for a great loss as it shot above (on strong volume) the downtrending line it had been humping since July.

I'll be the next to pitch a tent in the bull camp.

EddieFl said...

Costas, I'll look at the charts at the end of the day.

Its been hard to get on this trend once it began, like most, it will go longer than expected. When I talk about the market in general I talk about the SP500 and Nasdaq to a lesser.

I know its has been upward to sideways for the last 2.5months. Without a doubt, I dont use fundamentals at all, its all price into to the loan.

Anonymous said...

Anon at 9:27, I take the blame for this. I sold 1 Dec 40 call at 2.15 today, I don't know what ticked of the traders but since then TIE started going up up and away. The call option now is around 2.60. Again, THEY want to prove that I will be SCREWED at ANY cost.

Anonymous said...

continuing from the previous post ....

I think I will use the same tactic to screw these MoFos

EddieFl said...

PB, thats the best post you have had in 3.5 months, beside the DOW 20k,

good news or bad news, dont ignore the price action. Hot damm!!! i knew we could turn you into a trader..

Anonymous said...

The OEX has a hanging man dangling from a MAJOR resistance level.

Will he hang himself?

-Jana

downosedive said...

The move over to bull csmp continues. DJA up 75 on low vol with 3 hrs to go. If any of you still think that selling will happen on Tues, think again. far from selling, the buying will hot UP. Why? Because this is just the upward movement that makes people believe that 11700 will be tested very very soon. So there is another 300 points up and then that level may be broken and next stop 12000. Thats a bulls view. Now tell me why on earth should they sell? The answer is they wont. Youve got it all wrong, just like me as well. This is the leg up that will break the all time high. It had to happen sometime and that time is now.

Anonymous said...

Dow 20k here we come!!!! HAHAHAAH

Do I hear 12,000

13,500

14,250

14,500

15,000

15,145

15,675

16,000


16,775


17,175

17,450


17,550


18,000

no pull back as of yet!!!! can we make it to 20,000. Sure we can, nothing can stop the markets, inlfation, no such thing as inflation, gas going to a $1.50,,, the barrel is approaching $30 bucks. Housing bubble, ha, no wayyyyy. Real estate is still the place to be. Continue to borrow from your house its only going to appreciate 12% on avg a year. Times are good. GDP growth spectacular.

Dow 18,500

19,000


19,550

19,750

19,850

19,950

19,999


20,000!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Horraaaayyyyyyyyy WE MADE IT DOW 20,000!!!!





Mike

Anonymous said...

how many of you are going to sit on your positions over the long weekend?

i'm going to get out and see what tuesday brings although i expect we will we see 11600 by the end of next week.

traders coming back in after the summer will pump hard. Also, republicans ( big business ) do not want to lose their seats. if the market should fall, the dems will take over -- not going to happen!

got kicked in the ass buying puts. time to make some of it back.

Anonymous said...

Today must be the top since i am going crazy.

lol

down 300 point on Tuesday

wishful thinking here

die hard bear

Anonymous said...

Dow nose dive

i agree that it may move higher, but what will keep it going up up up up. I remember in MAY when everyone was so happy about new highs, then within 2-3 weeks it was gone. It will happen but guess what the next leg down is not going to be a pretty one. I really think this is the set up for another drop. The markets have not seen a 10% correction in the last 4-5 years. Market will have another pullback. If people didnt learn their lesson just last month what will it take.

I remember when the dow was at 10750-10,800, seemed like it was headed straight down, then all of the sudden the sun came the flowers bloomed and the markets touched 6 year highs. I just dont understand it. Remember when the bears were calling for 9000, 9500, 10,000 when we were sitting around 10800, well I think the same goes for this situation, when people start saying 11800, 12,000, 12,500 thats when you have to worry.


Market psychology will never ever be understood. Its just to impossible.


Mike

Anonymous said...

Wow, Costas, just look.

About Wednesday, the talking heads on CNBC said oil was breaking down. Of course, they didn't mention that oil never stay above 80 and it topped in early July.

OIH has tried 3 times to break and close below 134 and couldn't do it. So what did it do? REVERSE to the upside.


What was bottoming in early May when the mkts were hitting highs? Lowly, crappy BONDS. TLT hit 81.68 on May 12 and 88.20 yesterday. One would have made 7.8% PLUS collect the dividend for less than 4 months AND with lower risk compared to equities.

Try to shut out noise of the talking heads and put your prejudices on hold. Look for noncorrelated indices and try to short/buy at extremes.

bsi87

Sanjay Sola said...

i took profits in most of my stocks. market is overbought and near some very good resistance levels. we should see some profit taking next week. very dangerous to hold stocks here, imo.

stocks like Sandisk need a good beating. that stock is out of control.

Anonymous said...

Tim, you really need to create a separate "Bulls Only" section. Put up some bullish/breakout charts for suggestions.

When we were all sitting around at Dow 10,800 looking for a catalyst that would drive this market HIGHER, we were all scratching our heads. The markets couldn't POSSIBLY go higher!

Now the Dow is sitting up more than 7% off its lows in less than a couple months and looks to keep going higher. Now we're sitting around scratching our heads wondering exactly what will make this market sell off!!

Funny how the psychology works. But I must admit, I just don't see anyone panicking here. There just doesn't seem to be a market decline in the cards. I can understand some consolidation next week or so after the 7% gain in the Dow, the 8+% gain in the Naz, and the 6+% gain in the S&P. But that's not to say that those gains will be wiped out anytime soon. The big money players will take their profits, but they won't liquidate their positions 100% by any stretch of the imagination. Quite the opposite, I'm thinking that they'll just keep buying the dips.

I said it before and I'll say it again. This is 1995 all over again.

-Tony

Anonymous said...

SNDK Jan'07 60 put is so damn expensive around $7, Why the f***, is it so high?

Anonymous said...

Hey Tony --- this is not 1995 all over again, sorry. These are new times and many here are short-term focused 'cause August has taken money away from them (myself included) This is an old, aging bull that needs liquidity to stay alive. The problems evryone has talked about are very real and here to stay. Why the market has not reacted to it by heading lower is the confusing part. There will come a time when we will pay for all of these excesses ... it will come when it's least expected ... like this afternoon!

Trader Fred

costas1966 said...

I ASKED FOR TRADING IDEAS AND GOT MARKET COMMENTARY, WHICH IS FINE, BUT WHAT i REALLY MEANT WHEN I ASKED FOR TRADING IDEAS IS THAT IS YOU GUYS SEE SOMETHING WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A MOVE UP OR DOWN JUST THROW IT OUT THERE THAT IS ALL i AM SAYING.

jUST LIKE MY POST EARLIER WHEN i SAID i LIKE AHM FOR THE SHORT SIDE.

Anonymous said...

SNDK will hit $54 in sept

Con-founded

Anonymous said...

short the DOW, it has no oxygen to be at these levels

Anonymous said...

costas1966 --- you'll like this one BEARstearns!! Yup, they will get mauled, I see $110 easy!

Anonymous said...

Costas:

Shorts:

VOL is still a good short candidate, even today. If it breaks $40, it will see $32.

SNDK looks overextended.

LVS is forming a bearish rising wedge and could revisit $60 support if it breaks down.

UARM is still ridiculously expensive and could break down soon.

Longs:

And I still like the looks of silver's breakout. Today's action was strong, even though the gains were minor. Look for a retest of $12.50 on spot silver, then if that holds, it's up up and away.


-Tony

downosedive said...

Mike - this time its different. The DJA has now bounced twice from its lows this year, ie a double bottom. There isnt a third bottom on its way. This is currently a retracement to the previous high. Possibly that will be a double top, but I think not. Its sentiment that will drive the market up. None of the bulls want to see this collapse again, irregardless of the nice profits they must have made on this latest run up. Thats why they arnt selling - the herd wants to take out a new all time high, so there are no major sellers, hence there is a market squeeze in place. The futures selling isnt sufficient to drive the cash market down, because the cash market wants to buy and buy and buy. There are no cash sellers of any substance. That is what will drive this market higher. All the bearish comments are justified, but they count for nothing in reality. Here lies a truely battered worn out motionless bear.....!

Anonymous said...

buy GG --- get on this sucker and ride it up for an easy 10%

Anonymous said...

Anyone ever read the blogs from this site? :WWW.CARLFUTIA.BLOGSPOT.COM
This guys prediction on the DJIA and the S&P were spot on if you read his past predictions for the last 6 weeks and he is NOW predicting 1400 for the S&P by the end of the year.Thats 900 pts. for the DJIA. 12,500 give or take.Who knows if his indicators will fail from here but this guy has had his crystal ball working perfect for 6 weeks.Like Tim and several others I have been bearish too for all the RIGHT/WRONG reasons so I have no horn to blow but I will be taking some long hard looks at my own trading indicators over the long weekend.Good luck to all !

Denver

Anonymous said...

NCC

Cornerstone Value pick. long at 34.55

Do your own homework.

bsi87

Anonymous said...

My prediction:
Dow will hit 11800 in September and cross 12000 in December.

Anonymous said...

I guess this type of price action is what Greenspan meant when he spoke about "irrational exuberance" huh?????

Doug

downosedive said...

This market is anything but sonambulant - its the underlying strength that makes it anything but sonambulent. Another false bear dawn era passes

Anonymous said...

This is irrational, yes. But the P/E ratios of the market leaders are nowhere near those of the market leaders back in the late 90's.

All in all, the market is "fairly valued" (I would prefer to say that it's "FULLY valued"), maybe even slightly overvalued. But it's not "ripe for a crash", in my opinion.

I would be very hesitant to buy stocks at these levels, certainly. But that doesn't mean that EVERYONE is hesitant. Clearly, from the price action over the last 3 weeks, the general consensus is that stocks still have plenty of buyers at these prices.

Next week should give a clearer picture of what's going on. Obviously, the volume lately has been very light. VERY light, even for summer standards. And yet the markets are up a very, very high percentage off their lows, without any significant retracement or distribution days.

I think someone posted a graph that shows the S&P right now in the middle of its trading channel going back several years. One would suspect that it would at least touch the lower trendline in the near future, whether that means having the trendline catch up while the index treads water, or having a slight retracement to bring the index down to the trendline. Nobody knows for sure.

But I suspect that people will be BUYING when it touches that trendline next time around. From the looks of it, traders are not at all interested in breaking that trendline to the downside.

-Tony

chanon said...

Upward push bit too fast, bit pull back after labor day would be healthy.
beautiful double bottom bounce chart below
DOW
P.S...Cramer On vacation again? reruns

Anonymous said...

Missing Cramer are we? Don't worry you have cramerwatch.com

Anonymous said...

The Naz:VXN comparison is sitting at RSI 66.24 on the daily. My guess is the Naz rallies a bit more next week and the VXN drops some more.

bsi87

Anonymous said...

Too many bulls in here, what is going on. Im still bearish. I just do not understand how this market is ready for another historical high like everyone thinks is going to happen. I find it simply amazing how easily and quickly these markets sold off and came straight back up. I remember in JULY when no one wanted to buy anything in this market. It was selloff after selloff after selloff, now the opposite is happening, markets continue to rise day after day. Im a bear and I know for sure that if I jumped to the long side everything would drop like a rock, im not falling for it. I tried going long when the markets were dropping and lost due to the fact everyone said we were headed to 10,000, never happened. Now that everyone is calling for 12,000 im thinking the same situation all over again. Does anyone comprehend that there is nothing to keep this market going higher. There is no catalyst. None whatsoever. Everyone is now talking about dow 12000 and s&p 1380, im sorry but I think these markets will pullback at least 2-4% before making a run at 12,000. I wouldnt be suprised to see triple digit losses and triple digit gains back in this market as early as next week.

Anonymous said...

You're looking at the markets all wrong.

Look at it this way: what will cause the markets to *sell off*?

At this point, it doesn't look like there's a catalyst for the markets to go down.

Yes, the volitility should increase next week, but that doesn't mean that the markets will crash. It just means that the daily swings will get back to their normal wide range.