tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post1270728800669396513..comments2023-11-02T03:53:15.874-07:00Comments on The Slope of Hope.....with Tim Knight: SomnambulantTim Knighthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02142044637710306701noreply@blogger.comBlogger77125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-42999983523519823082006-09-02T06:04:00.000-07:002006-09-02T06:04:00.000-07:00You're looking at the markets all wrong.
Look at ...You're looking at the markets all wrong.<br /><br />Look at it this way: what will cause the markets to *sell off*?<br /><br />At this point, it doesn't look like there's a catalyst for the markets to go down.<br /><br />Yes, the volitility should increase next week, but that doesn't mean that the markets will crash. It just means that the daily swings will get back to their normal wide range.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-80272639100800723892006-09-01T21:47:00.000-07:002006-09-01T21:47:00.000-07:00Too many bulls in here, what is going on. Im stil...Too many bulls in here, what is going on. Im still bearish. I just do not understand how this market is ready for another historical high like everyone thinks is going to happen. I find it simply amazing how easily and quickly these markets sold off and came straight back up. I remember in JULY when no one wanted to buy anything in this market. It was selloff after selloff after selloff, now the opposite is happening, markets continue to rise day after day. Im a bear and I know for sure that if I jumped to the long side everything would drop like a rock, im not falling for it. I tried going long when the markets were dropping and lost due to the fact everyone said we were headed to 10,000, never happened. Now that everyone is calling for 12,000 im thinking the same situation all over again. Does anyone comprehend that there is nothing to keep this market going higher. There is no catalyst. None whatsoever. Everyone is now talking about dow 12000 and s&p 1380, im sorry but I think these markets will pullback at least 2-4% before making a run at 12,000. I wouldnt be suprised to see triple digit losses and triple digit gains back in this market as early as next week.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-66943867738582447082006-09-01T15:45:00.000-07:002006-09-01T15:45:00.000-07:00The Naz:VXN comparison is sitting at RSI 66.24 on ...The Naz:VXN comparison is sitting at RSI 66.24 on the daily. My guess is the Naz rallies a bit more next week and the VXN drops some more.<br /><br />bsi87Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-57619979006090003412006-09-01T14:47:00.000-07:002006-09-01T14:47:00.000-07:00Missing Cramer are we? Don't worry you have cramer...Missing Cramer are we? Don't worry you have cramerwatch.comAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-79168183608323601572006-09-01T14:21:00.000-07:002006-09-01T14:21:00.000-07:00Upward push bit too fast, bit pull back after labo...Upward push bit too fast, bit pull back after labor day would be healthy.<br />beautiful double bottom bounce chart below<br /><a href="http://quote.prophet.net//applets/javachart/printGif.jsp?id=http://COURAGE.prophet.net/TemporaryFiles/JavaCharts/225.1157145502195.print.gif&scope=prophetfinance&host=www.geocities.com&symbol=$INDU&duration=1y&frequency=d">DOW</a><br />P.S...Cramer On vacation again? rerunschanonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08685393233531278278noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-10337418315126861912006-09-01T13:21:00.000-07:002006-09-01T13:21:00.000-07:00This is irrational, yes. But the P/E ratios of th...This is irrational, yes. But the P/E ratios of the market leaders are nowhere near those of the market leaders back in the late 90's.<br /><br />All in all, the market is "fairly valued" (I would prefer to say that it's "FULLY valued"), maybe even slightly overvalued. But it's not "ripe for a crash", in my opinion.<br /><br />I would be very hesitant to buy stocks at these levels, certainly. But that doesn't mean that EVERYONE is hesitant. Clearly, from the price action over the last 3 weeks, the general consensus is that stocks still have plenty of buyers at these prices.<br /><br />Next week should give a clearer picture of what's going on. Obviously, the volume lately has been very light. VERY light, even for summer standards. And yet the markets are up a very, very high percentage off their lows, without any significant retracement or distribution days.<br /><br />I think someone posted a graph that shows the S&P right now in the middle of its trading channel going back several years. One would suspect that it would at least touch the lower trendline in the near future, whether that means having the trendline catch up while the index treads water, or having a slight retracement to bring the index down to the trendline. Nobody knows for sure.<br /><br />But I suspect that people will be BUYING when it touches that trendline next time around. From the looks of it, traders are not at all interested in breaking that trendline to the downside.<br /><br />-TonyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-92717905681606662006-09-01T13:18:00.000-07:002006-09-01T13:18:00.000-07:00This market is anything but sonambulant - its the ...This market is anything but sonambulant - its the underlying strength that makes it anything but sonambulent. Another false bear dawn era passesdownosedivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10330098599116167405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-86870183062492696162006-09-01T12:57:00.000-07:002006-09-01T12:57:00.000-07:00I guess this type of price action is what Greenspa...I guess this type of price action is what Greenspan meant when he spoke about "irrational exuberance" huh?????<br /><br />DougAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-8258705824691319262006-09-01T12:33:00.000-07:002006-09-01T12:33:00.000-07:00My prediction:
Dow will hit 11800 in September and...My prediction:<br />Dow will hit 11800 in September and cross 12000 in December.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-31392483876085316782006-09-01T12:18:00.000-07:002006-09-01T12:18:00.000-07:00NCC
Cornerstone Value pick. long at 34.55
Do you...NCC<br /><br />Cornerstone Value pick. long at 34.55<br /><br />Do your own homework.<br /><br />bsi87Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-25733954809031618702006-09-01T12:02:00.000-07:002006-09-01T12:02:00.000-07:00Anyone ever read the blogs from this site? :WWW.CA...Anyone ever read the blogs from this site? :WWW.CARLFUTIA.BLOGSPOT.COM<br />This guys prediction on the DJIA and the S&P were spot on if you read his past predictions for the last 6 weeks and he is NOW predicting 1400 for the S&P by the end of the year.Thats 900 pts. for the DJIA. 12,500 give or take.Who knows if his indicators will fail from here but this guy has had his crystal ball working perfect for 6 weeks.Like Tim and several others I have been bearish too for all the RIGHT/WRONG reasons so I have no horn to blow but I will be taking some long hard looks at my own trading indicators over the long weekend.Good luck to all !<br /><br />DenverAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-47432313301313994782006-09-01T11:50:00.000-07:002006-09-01T11:50:00.000-07:00buy GG --- get on this sucker and ride it up for ...buy GG --- get on this sucker and ride it up for an easy 10%Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-32477235894105828472006-09-01T11:35:00.000-07:002006-09-01T11:35:00.000-07:00Mike - this time its different. The DJA has now bo...Mike - this time its different. The DJA has now bounced twice from its lows this year, ie a double bottom. There isnt a third bottom on its way. This is currently a retracement to the previous high. Possibly that will be a double top, but I think not. Its sentiment that will drive the market up. None of the bulls want to see this collapse again, irregardless of the nice profits they must have made on this latest run up. Thats why they arnt selling - the herd wants to take out a new all time high, so there are no major sellers, hence there is a market squeeze in place. The futures selling isnt sufficient to drive the cash market down, because the cash market wants to buy and buy and buy. There are no cash sellers of any substance. That is what will drive this market higher. All the bearish comments are justified, but they count for nothing in reality. Here lies a truely battered worn out motionless bear.....!downosedivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10330098599116167405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-16420995955139284662006-09-01T11:33:00.000-07:002006-09-01T11:33:00.000-07:00Costas:
Shorts:
VOL is still a good short candid...Costas:<br /><br />Shorts:<br /><br />VOL is still a good short candidate, even today. If it breaks $40, it will see $32.<br /><br />SNDK looks overextended.<br /><br />LVS is forming a bearish rising wedge and could revisit $60 support if it breaks down.<br /><br />UARM is still ridiculously expensive and could break down soon.<br /><br />Longs:<br /><br />And I still like the looks of silver's breakout. Today's action was strong, even though the gains were minor. Look for a retest of $12.50 on spot silver, then if that holds, it's up up and away.<br /><br /><br />-TonyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-53581596410199104272006-09-01T11:24:00.000-07:002006-09-01T11:24:00.000-07:00costas1966 --- you'll like this one BEARstearns!...costas1966 --- you'll like this one BEARstearns!! Yup, they will get mauled, I see $110 easy!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-71368522437768806792006-09-01T11:22:00.000-07:002006-09-01T11:22:00.000-07:00short the DOW, it has no oxygen to be at these lev...short the DOW, it has no oxygen to be at these levelsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-23538001203337088652006-09-01T11:20:00.001-07:002006-09-01T11:20:00.001-07:00SNDK will hit $54 in sept
Con-foundedSNDK will hit $54 in sept<br /><br /> Con-foundedAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-49718583642356657592006-09-01T11:19:00.000-07:002006-09-01T11:19:00.000-07:00Hey Tony --- this is not 1995 all over again, sorr...Hey Tony --- this is not 1995 all over again, sorry. These are new times and many here are short-term focused 'cause August has taken money away from them (myself included) This is an old, aging bull that needs liquidity to stay alive. The problems evryone has talked about are very real and here to stay. Why the market has not reacted to it by heading lower is the confusing part. There will come a time when we will pay for all of these excesses ... it will come when it's least expected ... like this afternoon!<br /><br />Trader FredAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-50102560954926715282006-09-01T11:16:00.000-07:002006-09-01T11:16:00.000-07:00SNDK Jan'07 60 put is so damn expensive around $7,...SNDK Jan'07 60 put is so damn expensive around $7, Why the f***, is it so high?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-78045095975699518272006-09-01T10:57:00.000-07:002006-09-01T10:57:00.000-07:00Tim, you really need to create a separate "Bulls O...Tim, you really need to create a separate "Bulls Only" section. Put up some bullish/breakout charts for suggestions.<br /><br />When we were all sitting around at Dow 10,800 looking for a catalyst that would drive this market HIGHER, we were all scratching our heads. The markets couldn't POSSIBLY go higher!<br /><br />Now the Dow is sitting up more than 7% off its lows in less than a couple months and looks to keep going higher. Now we're sitting around scratching our heads wondering exactly what will make this market sell off!!<br /><br />Funny how the psychology works. But I must admit, I just don't see anyone panicking here. There just doesn't seem to be a market decline in the cards. I can understand some consolidation next week or so after the 7% gain in the Dow, the 8+% gain in the Naz, and the 6+% gain in the S&P. But that's not to say that those gains will be wiped out anytime soon. The big money players will take their profits, but they won't liquidate their positions 100% by any stretch of the imagination. Quite the opposite, I'm thinking that they'll just keep buying the dips.<br /><br />I said it before and I'll say it again. This is 1995 all over again.<br /><br />-TonyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-89984336416574799442006-09-01T10:34:00.000-07:002006-09-01T10:34:00.000-07:00Wow, Costas, just look.
About Wednesday, the talk...Wow, Costas, just look.<br /><br />About Wednesday, the talking heads on CNBC said oil was breaking down. Of course, they didn't mention that oil never stay above 80 and it topped in early July. <br /><br />OIH has tried 3 times to break and close below 134 and couldn't do it. So what did it do? REVERSE to the upside.<br /><br /><br />What was bottoming in early May when the mkts were hitting highs? Lowly, crappy BONDS. TLT hit 81.68 on May 12 and 88.20 yesterday. One would have made 7.8% PLUS collect the dividend for less than 4 months AND with lower risk compared to equities. <br /><br />Try to shut out noise of the talking heads and put your prejudices on hold. Look for noncorrelated indices and try to short/buy at extremes. <br /><br />bsi87Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-74955909140123602712006-09-01T10:13:00.000-07:002006-09-01T10:13:00.000-07:00Dow nose dive
i agree that it may move higher, bu...Dow nose dive<br /><br />i agree that it may move higher, but what will keep it going up up up up. I remember in MAY when everyone was so happy about new highs, then within 2-3 weeks it was gone. It will happen but guess what the next leg down is not going to be a pretty one. I really think this is the set up for another drop. The markets have not seen a 10% correction in the last 4-5 years. Market will have another pullback. If people didnt learn their lesson just last month what will it take. <br /><br />I remember when the dow was at 10750-10,800, seemed like it was headed straight down, then all of the sudden the sun came the flowers bloomed and the markets touched 6 year highs. I just dont understand it. Remember when the bears were calling for 9000, 9500, 10,000 when we were sitting around 10800, well I think the same goes for this situation, when people start saying 11800, 12,000, 12,500 thats when you have to worry. <br /><br /><br />Market psychology will never ever be understood. Its just to impossible. <br /><br /><br />MikeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-88899340427201356762006-09-01T10:12:00.000-07:002006-09-01T10:12:00.000-07:00Today must be the top since i am going crazy.
lol...Today must be the top since i am going crazy.<br /><br />lol<br /><br />down 300 point on Tuesday<br /><br />wishful thinking here <br /><br />die hard bearAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-18529900671607141972006-09-01T10:08:00.000-07:002006-09-01T10:08:00.000-07:00how many of you are going to sit on your positions...how many of you are going to sit on your positions over the long weekend?<br /><br />i'm going to get out and see what tuesday brings although i expect we will we see 11600 by the end of next week.<br /><br />traders coming back in after the summer will pump hard. Also, republicans ( big business ) do not want to lose their seats. if the market should fall, the dems will take over -- not going to happen!<br /><br />got kicked in the ass buying puts. time to make some of it back.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11789233.post-90809862109293933742006-09-01T10:06:00.000-07:002006-09-01T10:06:00.000-07:00Dow 20k here we come!!!! HAHAHAAH
Do I hear 12,00...Dow 20k here we come!!!! HAHAHAAH<br /><br />Do I hear 12,000<br /><br />13,500<br /><br />14,250<br /><br />14,500<br /><br />15,000<br /><br />15,145<br /><br />15,675<br /><br />16,000<br /><br /><br />16,775<br /><br /><br />17,175<br /><br />17,450<br /><br /><br />17,550<br /><br /><br />18,000<br /><br />no pull back as of yet!!!! can we make it to 20,000. Sure we can, nothing can stop the markets, inlfation, no such thing as inflation, gas going to a $1.50,,, the barrel is approaching $30 bucks. Housing bubble, ha, no wayyyyy. Real estate is still the place to be. Continue to borrow from your house its only going to appreciate 12% on avg a year. Times are good. GDP growth spectacular. <br /><br />Dow 18,500<br /><br />19,000<br /><br /><br />19,550<br /><br />19,750<br /><br />19,850<br /><br />19,950<br /><br />19,999<br /><br /><br />20,000!!!!!!!!!!!!!<br /><br /><br />Horraaaayyyyyyyyy WE MADE IT DOW 20,000!!!!<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />MikeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com