Thursday, March 30, 2006

Topping Out Continues

I was delighted, of course, that my prediction the fall would resume today materialized. That validates that the prices were simply retracing to resistance. I'm anticipating further descent tomorrow.

Here's a few favorite shorts, including stop prices. Maybe I've mentioned a couple of these before. The stop price is, by the way, the price above which the position should be closed. As always, click on the image to see a much bigger chart.

ACI (stop: 78.60)


ESRX (stop: 91.64)


FLR (stop: 88.50)


HP (stop: 72.74)

MCK (stop: 53.11)


UBB (stop: 86.64)


UTH (stop: 112.88)

6 comments:

kapil khanna said...

Indexes mixed, NASDAQ up, DJIA down. We have an intermittent top on the DJIA as earlier mentioned.
The current action is by no means a trend reversal only a pullback. For a trend reversal to even show up, we are looking at DJIA breaching 10900.

John Wheatcroft said...

I agree with Kapil - I've been watching a tower top form on the Dow for about a week now and it appears that it isn't going to form. Todays action formed a tweezer bottom at the low. Generally that is a prelude to an increase. Be carefull shorting into this market is what it is saying.

Tim Knight said...

My response to hurricane5:

+ My "advice" is inextricably linked to stops. If you're putting in positions with no stops, I think that's a real mistake

+ If you think the suggestions offered here are no good....stop reading 'em! Honestly. No one is forcing you to read this stuff (why megabulls keep reading this every day is quite beyond me)

+ If you look at a 10 year chart, you will see the "new high" is meaningless. The NASDAQ is still well less than half its historic highs, and there is a huge, huge amount of resistance overhead that I think will take many, many years to overcome.

kapil khanna said...

Hurricane5,
Since you are shorting against the primary uptrend, you should take both profits and losses quickly. If you do not, you may end up like 90% of the traders that do not survive their first year in the markets.
Also rethink your strategy. Tim likes to pick tops and he will keep trying to do so, at least that's what it looks like. There can be huge paybacks with such a system, but you gotta be consistent. In such a scheme, always have stops, and when you pick a top, ride it all the way down.

Tim Knight said...

Well, the big question at the moment (with two hours left in the trading week) is whether we're looking at a tweezer bottom on the Dow 30 at 11,120 or whether it's going to bust through yesterday's low and really start to rock. We'll know soon.....

kapil khanna said...

How about buy high, sell higher.
Well the current pullback seems to be consistent with all pullbacks in a bull market with low volume on the retracements.
Fundamental stocks still showing strength, with no signs of major selling. Market is currently looking for an intermittent bottom.
Tim,
You should try fibonnaci now to see where we can find an intermittent bottom and post.