Thresholds
Bleah. Based on yesterday's action (and Microsoft's announcement about the Vista delay last night......and the very bearish GLOBEX prior to the opening) I was thinking today would be a big down day. Not so! It was up over twice as much as it was down yesterday!
I've submitted charts galore recently (and Blogger is really having trouble with uploads lately), so I'll make today's submission short and sweet.
Below are five major indices and what I consider their break points. Above the bullish levels (which are quite close) implies strength. Crossing the bearish levels (much farther away) makes a strong case for weakness. You might want to set up some alerts with these levels to be notified when these items cross these thresholds.
(Umm - another technical ding to Blogger - I have no idea why the table is wayyyyy down below this text, but please scroll on down. C'mon Blogger! What's the deal?)
| Index | Symbol | Bullish | Bearish |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow 30 | $INDU | 11,430 | 10,922 |
| NASDAQ Composite | $COMPQ | 2,333 | 2,189 |
| Dow Utilities | $UTIL | 417.95 | 392.82 |
| NASDAQ 100 | $NDX | 1,717 | 1,633 |
| S&P 500 | $SPX | 1,311 | 1,168 |
7 comments:
Tim,
You only look at price movement. What about volume? Volume on up days has been horrible, breadth has also
been detoriating.
Are these price targets based on some sort of fibonacci relationship?
It's only frustrating if you're a permabear. If you're OK going long in a bull market and going short in bear market, all you really need is an idea of the current direction (which is UP, by the way) and not try to make it what you want ...
I love Fibonaccis, but no, these are simply important low or high prices establish in recent weeks/months. The bearish ones are particularly potent, since breaking an of them would clearly denote a core change in trend.
If 11,430 on the dow is bullish and 10992 is bearish then where are we currently? Looking at the preceding trend it is evident that we are bullish. For me 11430 + is profit taking zone :).
I don't blame bulls for being greedy, PB. I'm greedy too. I just blame them for being morons.
Sounds fair ;)
I've actually felt sort of bad about my comment, because I'd like to believe I can be objective in any market, up or down. But, in case it's not really obvious, I am definitely more inclined toward bear markets than bull, and in my view, the likelihood of a down market over the coming years is so much greater than an up market, I show my stripes (or fur) a bit too much! Anyway, things are (somewhat) down today, so let's keep our eyes open....
pb, you seem to want to fight the trend. The trend is up, working it might be more profitable. It might be more profitable to trade bullishly while you wait for the reality check, rather than cuss at the bulls. It could be a (long) while.
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